I'm old enough to remember the stagflation years of the early 1980s....interest rates in the mid-teens, or higher. Inflation the same and layoff after layoff. I'll admit I'm worried, but I have no financial worries now, and I'll be sitting on my hands and just waiting it out. If you have money it can be the time to do some buying. Example, I bought my first home in 1983. Rates were high, but prices were dropping significantly and I only signed a 5 year mortgage, so it worked out fine in the end.
"A return to high used-car prices/values". Are they not currently high? Maybe my brain just cant cope with the new normal.
I sold my Veloster to Carvana in 2021 for a little less than what I paid. The same car for sale on Carvana today (with more miles) is what you'd have paid at the dealer. Inflation outpacing depreciation is qualifies as "high used-car prices" in my book.
I've been searching for 3rd gen Mazda 3s. They are 7-11 years old and still going for 15-20k. New they were 17-25k.
docwyte
UltimaDork
3/9/25 10:22 a.m.
In reply to Steve_Jones :
Guess that shows you where my head is, I don't think it's an obscure car. It's a popular VW SUV, that happens to be a diesel, and is basically a copy of the much more expensive Porsche Cayenne. Suppose I'm too much of an enthusiast...
I just ran KBB.com private party values for our cars. Our higher mileage cars have held fairly consistent over time, best example is our '17 Odyssey purchased in 8/2020 with 193k for $12k is still worth $8500 with 245K almost five years later. Our '06 Rav4 with 245k is still hanging around $4500 (it was up to around $7k at peak pandemic pricing), but pre-pandemic it was worth about $4k in 2019 with around 220k. Our '15 Forester (bare-bones base model) with 192k is actually worth about the same as when we bought it 7 months ago - $4700. My wife's Pilot was purchased for $20k in 4/2019 with 52k on it, in 2021/2022/2023 it was worth about the same with 100k on it. Recently it's taken a big hit, now it's worth just under $11k with 138k on it. At nine years old, I'm sure it's fallen out of the sweet spot of "used but less than 6 years old", and a new body style came out. We've had decent luck buying first model years of a redesign that lasted for a while, so our cars don't necessarily look as old as they truly are. Our '06 RAV4 looked the same as a 2012, our '05 Odyssey looked the same as a 2010, and our '16 Pilot looked the same as a 2023.
So based on my sample of older, high-mileage vehicles (the "essential" market) the used car market seems to be down a bit from the peak, but is still on the elevated side compared to historical values.
New car pricing for Hondas (what I know best) seems to be in-line with historical values. Our local dealer has 11 Odysseys on the lot for sale - 10 are the high-level Touring model, and 1 is an EX-L (leather interior). For giggles, I looked at the monthly payment for the EX-L at $44k with $0 down and excellent credit. With an interest rate of 7.64% (ouch!) the payment over 5 years is $922 a month. Looks like I'll be living in the "essential" car buying world for a while longer 
In reply to dj06482 (Forum Supporter) :
As an aside your experience highlights the demise of the small car, in 2020 a new small car or an Odyssey for 20k might make a lot of people think hard.
docwyte said:
In reply to Steve_Jones :
Guess that shows you where my head is, I don't think it's an obscure car. It's a popular VW SUV, that happens to be a diesel, and is basically a copy of the much more expensive Porsche Cayenne. Suppose I'm too much of an enthusiast...
It's a European vehicle, which is perceived as high end and maintenance expensive. People interested in buying high end cars will buy NEW high end cars, and people who buy maintenance expensive cars will lease, or trade in before the warranty expires.
This is most of why Euro cars historically have had crazy depreciation. See also: the depreciation rates between identical Toyota and GM-badged versions built on the same assembly line. That Corolla or Matrix has much higher resale value because it is perceived as being a better value than a Chevy or a Pontiac.
