Anyone else notice that the stage is being set for a second Malaise Era?

If we look at the malaise era as a time when American cars were vastly less desirable than non-American ones, both domestically and elsewhere, due to a differences created by unusual domestic demands, exacerbated by a sudden huge change to the market, leading to US manufacturers having to scramble to catch up with their foreign competitors, all the ingredients are being assembled:

1. Strong domestic demand for American cars (now caused by low gas prices and actually good quality, then caused by patriotic purchasing)

2. Unusual domestic demands creating cars that are very different from what the rest of the world wants (Now, massive and relatively thirsty & dirty pickups again caused by low gas prices and about to be spurred on further by falling emissions requirements; Then, all-around crappy big sedans caused by low gas prices and artificially low quality standards due to patriotic purchasing, spurred on further by manufacturer cost-cutting measures.)

3. A looming sudden change to the market (Now, the return of expensive gas and a projected large mismatch in US vs. non-US emissions standards; Then, the original end of cheap gas - the OPEC oil crisis, and the sudden imposition of emissions controls)

So big American pickups are set to be the Malaisemobile 2.0. The trouble this time doesn't spread to every aspect of the vehicle like the original malaisemobile, but is mostly confined to efficiency and emissions (although vehicle weight and efficiency are related, and foreign markets obviously prefer vehicles with a smaller footprint). When expensive gas comes back with a vengeance, people are going to want MPGs on the better side of 50 and non-US governments will have far stricter emissions standards than the US if things continue on the currently plotted course, leading to decreased export demand and greater reliance on domestic sales. So when higher gas prices hit there would be a crash in demand worldwide for the relatively thirsty and dirty American vehicles, amid already lowered exports, and suddenly US manufacturers would have to scramble to play catch-up. I want to keep this thread as non-political as possible, but if US emissions rules were suddenly brought in line with the rest of the world in this projected future, that would lead to an even sharper collapse in domestic sales and would cause the situation to even more closely mirror the first malaise era.

If the Obama era CAFE standards are maintained  I don't see how the current crop of non hybrid vehicles has a chance to hit the target.  54.5MPG CAFE  by '26 is a big big jump from where we are with our truck heavy purchasing ways. The technology to make trucks viable, at least at current sales numbers,  doesn't even seem to exist.    

The previous CAFE standards are very ambitious but achievable - don't forget that EVs get 3-digit MPGe. They're also more aligned with foreign standards. There's no reason a fleet needs to have a significant number of non-hybrid vehicles.

yes! omg f'ing yes!  I've heard it over and over again, "We're livin in the glory days..."

Which we very well may be, but remember what happened the last time we were???

And then the "emissions articles" started popping up...

"Germany to ban all Diesels by 20xx..."

"Ford to only make bug SUVs because small stuff isnt selling..."

Yeah.  It's coming.  Buy a Dodge Demon now and park it.  lament over not being able to do anything with it for 50 years and sell it for twice the, adjusted for inflation, value of what you paid for it now in 2070.

TGMF said:

If the Obama era CAFE standards are maintained  I don't see how the current crop of non hybrid vehicles has a chance to hit the target.  54.5MPG CAFE  by '26 is a big big jump from where we are with our truck heavy purchasing ways. The technology to make trucks viable, at least at current sales numbers,  doesn't even seem to exist.    

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-16/trump-fuel-economy-target-set-for-march-release-nhtsa-head-says

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but I thought the previous CAFE had a bunch of fudge factors to avoid penalizing manufacturers for selling larger sizes/types of vehicles. In other words, if the public only wanted trucks, it was possible to meet the targets, but across the board improvement was required for all types of vehicles. If this is the case, only a rise in fuel price or CO2 regulations could create a malaise era (beyond crappiness of consumer tastes). Also, the 54.5MPG fleet average is not based on a real fuel economy value as we know it.

I have no idea why North America, Europe, Japan, Korea have different traditional emissions standards. ie. NOx, CO, HC and sometimes particulates. It seems like something everyone could/should agree upon. My understanding is that much of the time in the past, the US had tougher standards, although I'm not sure if this is the case going forward. I think this was a worthwhile endeavor, but with the exception of particulates, the problem has been mostly handled. These are typically measured in parts per million (PPM). That means an 6L Yukon can be theoretically have cleaner emissions than a 1L Fiesta, while spewing out more net actual pollutants.

CO2 emissions are very tightly linked with fuel economy. If real world fuel economy is needed, smaller is the way to go and could make today's vehicles look like the big, crappy SUVs of the late 90s/early 2000s when the last fuel price spike hit.

Us domestic automakers would still continue to design vehicles for the rest of the world, even if they had tighter emissions or fuel economy standards than the US. They might sell whatever the US market wants in the US, but they wouldn't be stuck without options if the market changed and trucks and large SUVs became undesirable.

Obviously, more standardized regulations for emissions, crash safety, and fleet fuel economy would make it even easier for all the players. It's my understanding that the disparity between US and Euro emissions standards has shrunken in recent years as the Euro cert has more or less changed their emphasis to more closely mirror the US.

Snrub said:

I have no idea why North America, Europe, Japan, Korea have different traditional emissions standards. ie. NOx, CO, HC and sometimes particulates. It seems like something everyone could/should agree upon.

Politics, I figure. A country that makes cars is going to want to prop up their domestic market and, ideally, put up as many barriers as possible to stop the other guys. Lobbyists know what to push for, and gradually domestic policy will grow to fit the lobbying.

There's not a large enough motivating force on the other end to make things "more international," especially when it's easy for a foreign automaker to open up a factory in your backyard and start using their lobbyists on you too.

Not sure I would call it a "malaise" era- the way I remember the 70's, all cars sucked, not just the ones from US manufacturers.    Even Alfa's lost 20-30hp.  

As for the EU vs the US- for the most part, we are still quite a bit more stringent in the US than they are, but with VW's recent scandal, the EU really reacted harshly- so all future certification will be done on road with portable emissions devices.  And we expect far more on road tests here in the US, too.  Pretty soon, the EU standards will largely keep diesel out of the majority of the market (see VW with their cancelation of diesels).  

One should note the almost Draconian change in China, too.  They went from almost nothing to Euro VI almost overnight.  Including at very high altitude- which has caused a lot of panic and work.

For the most part, I think you will see a flattening of specific output, and and an increase of efficiency all around the world.  

And it is valuable to note that the reality is that production of vehicles is just shifting to the largest market of that vehicle.  Nothing will stop GM or Ford from importing cars from other places if they want.  So the Mondeo, Focus, and Fiesta will live on- able to step in pretty quickly.  

I feel like the last Malaise era was the early 2000’s, like pre bailout. Every American manufacturer was making E36 M3ty cars. Almost every car was rental grade quality, even the fun cars. Junk interiors, virtually the same horsepower since the mid 90’s, E36 M3ty mileage and a general “No berkeleys Given” attitude from the manufacturers, especially from the General. 

SyntheticBlinkerFluid said:

I feel like the last Malaise era was the early 2000’s, like pre bailout. Every American manufacturer was making E36 M3ty cars. Almost every car was rental grade quality, even the fun cars. Junk interiors, virtually the same horsepower since the mid 90’s, E36 M3ty mileage and a general “No berkeleys Given” attitude from the manufacturers, especially from the General. 

 

This.

I think you're 'right' in that we will hit a new malaise era, but I think the driving forces are going to be different. Economies of scale prove that any 'change' to economy standards Trump wants won't really matter- why would say, Toyota suddenly want to expend capital to build some new engine to take advantage of lower economy standards in ONE nation, that might reverse the decision in a couple of years? Not to mention the lawsuits and litigation now means he'll be out of office before any meaningful change occurs.

Personally, I think we are going to see more repeats of what Ford has done- focusing entirely on investor returns and steadily sliding backwards into milquetoast car lineups that make money (coughcough NISSAN cough). The good news is tho, that some companies will see the opportunity presented- like the Madza Miata, which was the only car of it's kind when it was released.

SyntheticBlinkerFluid said:

I feel like the last Malaise era was the early 2000’s, like pre bailout. Every American manufacturer was making E36 M3ty cars. Almost every car was rental grade quality, even the fun cars. Junk interiors, virtually the same horsepower since the mid 90’s, E36 M3ty mileage and a general “No berkeleys Given” attitude from the manufacturers, especially from the General. 

In cars, maybe, though I'd argue there were bright spots (Focus, CTS-V, Mustang, a few others). In trucks, no way. Compare a mid-2000s truck or SUV to a mid-90s one, it's night and day in terms of quality, NVH, driving experience, horsepower, towing capacity, etc. And even then, trucks outsold cars.

I'm with Eric, no other period can be compared to the 70s, and while the Americans were the worst offenders in that era, nobody escaped unscathed from the emissions and insurance changes. I'd argue that we've been in a golden era since the mid to late 80s.

alfadriver said:

Not sure I would call it a "malaise" era- the way I remember the 70's, all cars sucked, not just the ones from US manufacturers.    Even Alfa's lost 20-30hp.  

True, few cars sold today are more than a couple tweaks away from late 70s Ferrari levels of power.

Are there really impending changes to allowable emission levels in the US? First I have heard of it. Surprising.

There weren't the tools in place to build better cars in the 70's. If we need to improve trucks by 5-10mpg we can mild plug in hybrid the whole fleet with the next generation. The tech already exists and all the manufacturers either sell it already or can buy it. 

alfadriver said:

Not sure I would call it a "malaise" era- the way I remember the 70's, all cars sucked, not just the ones from US manufacturers.    Even Alfa's lost 20-30hp.  

Agreed.  I don't think we can define the malaise era as being a time when American cars were vastly inferior to non-American cars.  Everything underperformed in the middle half of the '70s, and almost everything had crappy build quality.

SyntheticBlinkerFluid said:

I feel like the last Malaise era was the early 2000’s, like pre bailout. Every American manufacturer was making E36 M3ty cars. Almost every car was rental grade quality, even the fun cars. Junk interiors, virtually the same horsepower since the mid 90’s, E36 M3ty mileage and a general “No berkeleys Given” attitude from the manufacturers, especially from the General. 

 

DUDE... I've been saying this for years!

People tend to cap the "Malaise Era" at 1995, with the last OBD1 stuff leaving production lines. Yes, things got slightly better, like the introduction of the LS1, for instance. But, there was a sharp downward turn in quality across many many manufacturers. Things didn't start getting better until maybe 2010-11. Let's look at a few common issues from various manufacturers:

GM: Trash interiors, general apathy for design, the discontinuation of the F-Body cars, having the audacity to tell people that the FWD Monte Carlo was a true competitor to the Mustang, rot and frame issues on trucks, and the killing of Oldsmobile, Saturn and Pontiac

Chrysler: Extreme paint and rust problems on all vehicles (try finding a 2002-08 Ram with intact bedsides in New England), Daimler Chrysler era weirdness, the Cerebrus Capital Management de-contenting of everything, Interiors by Rubbermaid, The PT Cruiser, and killing Plymouth

Ford: Questionable quality across the board, mod motors pooping spark plugs, the 6.0L Powerstroke, killing Mercury

But don't think the foreign car companies got away with things, either!

Honda: The backwards redesign of the Civic, automatic transmission problems

Toyota: Sludgy engines, fragile cars, frames rotting in half

VW: Check Engine Light Bingo, major quality issues across the board, electrical nightmares

Mazda: They started rotting the second they left the assembly line, Ford parts failures 

Subaru: Spun bearings, cracked ringlands, blown headgaskets, and rust

They all sucked. 

Wally said:

alfadriver said:

Not sure I would call it a "malaise" era- the way I remember the 70's, all cars sucked, not just the ones from US manufacturers.    Even Alfa's lost 20-30hp.  

True, few cars sold today are more than a couple tweaks away from late 70s Ferrari levels of power.

Apparently the US version of the 308 had 227 hp.  I don't actually know of any v6 that makes that little.  The perfornace engine in a Fusion makes 40 more....  And the Focus RS is someting around 100 more.

T.J. said:

Are there really impending changes to allowable emission levels in the US? First I have heard of it. Surprising.

They are in the process of lowering the fleet average to SULEV30 by 2023.  The standards are not getting tighter, but the overall fleet average is.  We've had SULEV30 cars since 2000 (you see them labeled as PZEV generally).  The thinking is that what is coming next is more on road enforcement.

alfadriver said:

Wally said:

alfadriver said:

Not sure I would call it a "malaise" era- the way I remember the 70's, all cars sucked, not just the ones from US manufacturers.    Even Alfa's lost 20-30hp.  

True, few cars sold today are more than a couple tweaks away from late 70s Ferrari levels of power.

Apparently the US version of the 308 had 227 hp.  I don't actually know of any v6 that makes that little.  The perfornace engine in a Fusion makes 40 more....  And the Focus RS is someting around 100 more.

The initial us fuel injection version made 202 hp

In reply to MotorsportsGordon :

The new, CHEAP, engine in the Camry (the one I've been bragging about) makes 203 hp.  AND it gets some serious fuel economy on top of that power.

There's a transplant that would make people cry- a 2.5l Toyota motor in a Ferrari.  LOL.

In reply to alfadriver :

That makes sense, but is the opposite of what I thought was in the original post. I read the original post as that the US was loosening standards (allowing more pollution) and that didn't make sense to me, then it seemed that several follow-on posts were confusing CAFE standards with emission standards.

alfadriver said:

In reply to MotorsportsGordon :

The new, CHEAP, engine in the Camry (the one I've been bragging about) makes 203 hp.  AND it gets some serious fuel economy on top of that power.

There's a transplant that would make people cry- a 2.5l Toyota motor in a Ferrari.  LOL.

My 8 year old cobalt with the 2.2 litre has 155 hp. Our old ice racer 66 corvair has the base 95 hp engine which is about 80 hp in net ratings.

T.J. said:

In reply to alfadriver :

That makes sense, but is the opposite of what I thought was in the original post. I read the original post as that the US was loosening standards (allowing more pollution) and that didn't make sense to me, then it seemed that several follow-on posts were confusing CAFE standards with emission standards.

Technically, the CAFE standards are now rolled into the emissions standard.  And the measurement is CO2.  But, yea, I'm not so sure that the most recent rules will be rolled back.  It's one thing to proclaim that you will, but it will take many years, some hearings, and I'm sure many lawsuits to actually roll back the new CO2 standards.  

Anyway, the new rules are based on what the vehicle dimensionally is.  Which makes it a little easier to just make cars people want to buy and not give away the cars that help your numbers.