frenchyd said:
In reply to Keith Tanner :
Keith, remember trains are electrified. Getting miles of rail cars with hundreds of tons of weight rolling is a function of electric motors.
Sorta. The majority of them in the US are basically hybrids with on-board generators and those that aren't are on tethers. One nice thing about trains is that their demands are fairly consistent once running, which makes them well-suited to running a generator.
When you're expending enormous amounts of energy rapidly and for a long period without a tether, ICE still has an advantage. I'm thinking of stuff like scrapers.
Tom1200 said:
Mark me in the highly skeptical column on this; that's only 4 1/2 years away. For me this is total PR driven.
While a natural gas power plant (charging station) burns cleaner than coal, my understanding is it's not hugely cleaner than gasoline. I also don't know it's energy content I.E. do you need to burn more natural gas to get the equivalent amount of energy (gasoline vs natrual gas)? Also EVs are heavier and as such require more energy to move them.
The other component is the manufacturing of new vehicles creates emissions. If we simple drove our cars for 15 years versus say 12 years, how much would that lower emissions?
2036 or 2046 maybe but I just don't see 2026 happening.
Don't forget that a generating plant can be running at or near optimal all the time. Cars are always in transition, and I'm sure Alfa can tell us that that's where things are difficult. So even if under perfect conditions NG is no cleaner than gasoline, you rarely get perfect conditions in a vehicle from an emissions standpoint.
I don't think anyone here is suggesting the gasoline fleet get scrapped. But the fleet will turn over eventually.
About the timeline: I don't think I've come across an actual Audi press release. But a bunch of news articles say that they won't release any new ICE vehicles after 2026. That's a very different story from will not SELL any new ICE vehicles after 2026 and is a far more plausible timeline.
Keith Tanner said:
Sorta. The majority of them in the US are basically hybrids with on-board generators and those that aren't are on tethers. One nice thing about trains is that their demands are fairly consistent once running, which makes them well-suited to running a generator.
When you're expending enormous amounts of energy rapidly and for a long period without a tether, ICE still has an advantage. I'm thinking of stuff like scrapers.
To play devils advocate, by the numbers Li-ion batteries aren't recycled much in the US. In fact, the rate of Li-ion batteries recycled is only 5% in the states (even less in most places around the world). As it stands it's simply too complex and expensive to justify recycling, and that problem is only getting worse as the price of new Li-ion battery packs continue to fall. (Source: https://cen.acs.org/materials/energy-storage/time-serious-recycling-lithium/97/i28). They are highly recyclable in theory, true, but in reality that isn't economically viable (yet).
When I hear (see) people say "OMG but THE GRID!!" doesn't really understand how it works, and how it will work in the future. We have low/negative power pricing in areas of high solar generation (now) and thing will continue to go in that direction. Charge during that time, or during the overnight low cost/low demand hours and it's a complete non issue. There may be few that charge at peak, but it won't be en-masse.
2026 seems ambitious, but at the prices most of these cars bring the infrastructure (at home) is already there. The infrastructure "on road" is getting much better and fast.
goingnowherefast said:
Keith Tanner said:
Sorta. The majority of them in the US are basically hybrids with on-board generators and those that aren't are on tethers. One nice thing about trains is that their demands are fairly consistent once running, which makes them well-suited to running a generator.
When you're expending enormous amounts of energy rapidly and for a long period without a tether, ICE still has an advantage. I'm thinking of stuff like scrapers.
To play devils advocate, by the numbers Li-ion batteries aren't recycled much in the US. In fact, the rate of Li-ion batteries recycled is only 5% in the states (even less in most places around the world). As it stands it's simply too complex and expensive to justify recycling, and that problem is only getting worse as the price of new Li-ion battery packs continue to fall. (Source: https://cen.acs.org/materials/energy-storage/time-serious-recycling-lithium/97/i28). They are highly recyclable in theory, true, but in reality that isn't economically viable (yet).
I suspect a big part of that is the fact that most Li-ion batteries are used in short-lived consumer products like phones and people can't be bothered. It's a lot easier to manage recycling when there's a big fat slab of battery in a car, because you don't stick a car in your junk drawer and forget about it. Well, mostly you don't :)
That article is a couple of years old. In more recent news, Tesla's previous CTO is behind a big recycling effort.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/former-tesla-exec-inks-new-recycling-deal-as-battery-costs-soar-.html
In reply to Keith Tanner :
Dozers (scrapers? ) are basically tanks with blades instead of guns. They quickly get into high torque applications as earth is moved. Weight is a needed thing for them to operate so instead of Iron ballast the ballast can be batteries.
It's rare that the needed torque curve of the diesel matches the requirements of the dozer so oversized engines are used to ensure adequate operation at low RPM. Something an electric motor would have an advantage at.
Now earth movers have also been called scrapers as have Road Graders.
In the loading phase of earth Movers low RPM torque is important. While the unloading phase of Earth Movers requires torque at higher RPM.
Road Graders prime requirement is traction, not speed or torque.
I should mention that I don't have an engineering degree. My comments are based on marketing to potential customers.
frenchyd said:
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:
In reply to frenchyd :
That's true, but most heavy construction and mining equipment does not operate near available power, so charging is a real problem. We'd have to run a good sized generator to recharge. That won't work.
I think you forget I worked for Caterpillar, John Deere, and Ingersol Rand for most of my professional career.
One of the first things done on a construction site is to bring power in. Quarries too!
Until the power is there generators are there. Sometimes massive Standby generators, bigger than I sold to regional Hospitals.
Frenchy, I'm not doubting your professional experience. I'm sharing mine.
We have 42 commercial and industrial projects running right now. Every one of them got TEMPORARY power early, but NONE got permanent power until very late in the process. The power company won't turn on power to the transformers until final inspections are complete.
There is no way a charger will run off temporary power.
My current project has been running for 7 months so far. We will be getting temporary power for the first time next week. It's a 40A single phase 110V only panel.
We will not get our main power supply for 6 more months.
Are there exceptions? Absolutely. Can it be done? Sure.
Is it typical? Nope.
Tom1200
SuperDork
6/21/21 1:25 p.m.
In reply to Keith Tanner :
I caught the distinction, hence my comment about this being PR driven
The operative word is "release". If say, the 2026 Q7 is still selling well in 2030 it would continue. If all they've done is simply upgrades to the vehicle (rather than all new design) then they could in fact claim it's not a new "release"............however disingenuous that may or may not be.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:
frenchyd said:
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:
In reply to frenchyd :
That's true, but most heavy construction and mining equipment does not operate near available power, so charging is a real problem. We'd have to run a good sized generator to recharge. That won't work.
I think you forget I worked for Caterpillar, John Deere, and Ingersol Rand for most of my professional career.
One of the first things done on a construction site is to bring power in. Quarries too!
Until the power is there generators are there. Sometimes massive Standby generators, bigger than I sold to regional Hospitals.
Frenchy, I'm not doubting your professional experience. I'm sharing mine.
We have 42 commercial and industrial projects running right now. Every one of them got TEMPORARY power early, but NONE got permanent power until very late in the process. The power company won't turn on power to the transformers until final inspections are complete.
There is no way a charger will run off temporary power.
My current project has been running for 7 months so far. We will be getting temporary power for the first time next week. It's a 40A single phase 110V only panel.
We will not get our main power supply for 6 more months.
Are there exceptions? Absolutely. Can it be done? Sure.
Is it typical? Nope.
That's not a technical problem, though. That's just a matter of the utilities running more robust power earlier. It can be done if necessary.
Frenchy, you know more about big cats than I do. But around here, a scraper is a high speed dirt planer :) It's my understanding that they basically ram the dirt in and there's no ballast I'm aware of. I'm not thinking that you couldn't do the job once on batteries, but the sheer amount of energy involved means there would have to be a LOT of battery and it would need an appropriate charging infrastructure. Beasts like this are going to be the most difficult ones to electrify. I'd expect to see things like rollers get changed over first, as they can certainly use the weight and they're not expending so much power.
Caterpillar calls these scrapers too ;) This thing has over 1000 hp and it's still expected that you'll occasionally have to give it a push.
In reply to Keith Tanner :
You are theoretically correct. But in practice, the medium sized site contractors who do the majority of commercial projects don't have the clout to get the power companies to act that far in advance, and the buildings that will house the panels and termination points don't even exist yet.
Keith, I realize your wife has a lot of experience in larger scale heavy construction, but most commercial projects involve $1.5 million or so in total. That's not enough to get utility companies to install temporary power sub stations.
It becomes a technical problem.
I don't consider clout to be a technical problem. We know how to do it. There might be a bunch of business or political reasons why it's not done, but that doesn't require any new technology. A technical problem is trying to figure out how to charge an enoooooormous battery without it catching on fire or browning out the state. Getting the utilities to run wires? Not technical, just paperwork. And it's the sort of thing that will gradually change. I do know that utility providers are an enormous pain in the ass.
Site trailers are a thing even on small jobs. What about a 20' shipping container with all the panels and support structure needed? Heck, it could contain a bunch of chargers. Drop it at the site, hook it up, take it away when it's done. That's not a hard thing to put together, technically.
There is also a technical problem created by the chain of responsibility...
I am a general contractor. I build commercial and industrial spaces.
I don't own the permanent electric system. Generally, we open 2 separate accounts, get the temporary installed quickly in our name, and then act as agents for the owner to facilitate the ultimate installation of permanent power. The OWNER owns the permanent power system, and I "own" only the temporary electric service.
The site contractor is a subcontractor. He works for me, and his costs are inside my contract with the owner. He NEVER "owns" any electric service, and can do his entire work without any electricity.
If a subcontractor came to me and said "I'm gonna use big electric equipment. I need you to install good electric service before you even start the building so I can charge my E36 M3", I'd tell him to pound sand and I'd hire someone else. Coordinating with the power company would cause up front delays of several months, and temporary power stations that are not necessary. The owner would not pay me for those things, and would not be ok with the related project delays.
It's much different than heavy highway construction.
Will it happen? Maybe someday. But definitely not in my lifetime.
Keith Tanner said:
I don't consider clout to be a technical problem. We know how to do it. There might be a bunch of business or political reasons why it's not done, but that doesn't require any new technology. A technical problem is trying to figure out how to charge an enoooooormous battery without it catching on fire or browning out the state. Getting the utilities to run wires? Not technical, just paperwork. And it's the sort of thing that will gradually change. I do know that utility providers are an enormous pain in the ass.
Site trailers are a thing even on small jobs. What about a 20' shipping container with all the panels and support structure needed? Heck, it could contain a bunch of chargers. Drop it at the site, hook it up, take it away when it's done. That's not a hard thing to put together, technically.
Correct. It's not that hard.
But who's gonna own it and pay for it?
Not a GC. That's for sure. And not a site contractor.
In reply to Keith Tanner :
You are not suggesting I own 1. You are suggesting I own 42 to keep our current projects running. To supply electricity for somebody else's equipment.
Why would I do that?
You are offering solutions to problems I don't have.
There are potential issues with the grid as large scale vehicle electrification takes place but they're not insurmountable nor are they being ignored by the energy providers. This isn't my area but there is work being done at the national laboratories and universities on identifying and quantifying the issues and coming up with strategies to overcome them. The next time I see a study or a paper I'll see if it's available to the public and if it is I'll post a link.
More difficult than the technical challenges are the political and business ones. Most of the new and existing power sources with a smaller environmental impact are better suited to a grid system with multiple smaller inputs with a central control system as is used in Europe than the fewer large power plants in a loosely connected system that we currently have in the US. As you can imagine trying to get all of the different companies and regulatory agencies to work together to change our current system is difficult. The good news is that energy companies want to sell energy and most of them are looking at adding green energy sources to their portfolio and they're looking at, and in some cases funding the studies that are pointing to the need for change in how the industry works. Still, state's rights, anti-trust laws and free market all need to be balanced against the potential improved efficiencies and reduced environmental impact of the system that the studies are telling us is technically superior from an environmental standpoint.
Keith Tanner said:
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:
frenchyd said:
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:
In reply to frenchyd :
That's true, but most heavy construction and mining equipment does not operate near available power, so charging is a real problem. We'd have to run a good sized generator to recharge. That won't work.
I think you forget I worked for Caterpillar, John Deere, and Ingersol Rand for most of my professional career.
One of the first things done on a construction site is to bring power in. Quarries too!
Until the power is there generators are there. Sometimes massive Standby generators, bigger than I sold to regional Hospitals.
Frenchy, I'm not doubting your professional experience. I'm sharing mine.
We have 42 commercial and industrial projects running right now. Every one of them got TEMPORARY power early, but NONE got permanent power until very late in the process. The power company won't turn on power to the transformers until final inspections are complete.
There is no way a charger will run off temporary power.
My current project has been running for 7 months so far. We will be getting temporary power for the first time next week. It's a 40A single phase 110V only panel.
We will not get our main power supply for 6 more months.
Are there exceptions? Absolutely. Can it be done? Sure.
Is it typical? Nope.
That's not a technical problem, though. That's just a matter of the utilities running more robust power earlier. It can be done if necessary.
Frenchy, you know more about big cats than I do. But around here, a scraper is a high speed dirt planer :) It's my understanding that they basically ram the dirt in and there's no ballast I'm aware of. I'm not thinking that you couldn't do the job once on batteries, but the sheer amount of energy involved means there would have to be a LOT of battery and it would need an appropriate charging infrastructure. Beasts like this are going to be the most difficult ones to electrify. I'd expect to see things like rollers get changed over first, as they can certainly use the weight and they're not expending so much power.
Caterpillar calls these scrapers too ;) This thing has over 1000 hp and it's still expected that you'll occasionally have to give it a push.
Those are earth movers. For every one of those sold by Caterpillar I'll bet 150-200 dozers are sold.
Yes they are designed to get an additional push from a Dozer in the loading operation.
As contractors made the switch from Steam to diesel construction equipment it didn't happen all at once. Plus there were still steam operated equipment working when I was a young boy. So it's not going to happen overnight. But that doesn't mean it couldn't.
Lawn mowing equipment is a perfect application for EV. No reason to remain with IC except market forces. Yet only a tiny handful of suppliers even have a EV line.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:
There is also a technical problem created by the chain of responsibility...
I am a general contractor. I build commercial and industrial spaces.
I don't own the permanent electric system. Generally, we open 2 separate accounts, get the temporary installed quickly in our name, and then act as agents for the owner to facilitate the ultimate installation of permanent power. The OWNER owns the permanent power system, and I "own" only the temporary electric service.
The site contractor is a subcontractor. He works for me, and his costs are inside my contract with the owner. He NEVER "owns" any electric service, and can do his entire work without any electricity.
If a subcontractor came to me and said "I'm gonna use big electric equipment. I need you to install good electric service before you even start the building so I can charge my E36 M3", I'd tell him to pound sand and I'd hire someone else. Coordinating with the power company would cause up front delays of several months, and temporary power stations that are not necessary. The owner would not pay me for those things, and would not be ok with the related project delays.
It's much different than heavy highway construction.
Will it happen? Maybe someday. But definitely not in my lifetime.
Every framing contractor I ever worked with had his own generators. I sold some of the bigger ones. But the 5-6-10Kw ones were there from the beginning. Long before site power was.
If the project was big enough Site power was in right after the survey was done. Gas, sewer, and water started as the foundation started.
Aerial equipment is already a significant portion electrified. Since the really big moble cranes have ballast come in on separate semi's it would be a piece of cake to bring the batteries in instead along with portable generators for recharging.
In reply to frenchyd :
Do you think a 6K generator will charge an electric dozer?
Why would we give up diesel so we could burn gasoline to generate electricity? It doesn't make any sense.
In reply to SVreX (Forum Supporter) :
Why did the early contractors give up steam to buy oil based fuel?
Because it will be more efficient, cheaper to maintain, more reliable and simpler.
Which is more reliable? A toaster or a lawn mower? Too different? A electric fan or a gas powered fan?
In reply to frenchyd :
Like I said... not gonna happen in my lifetime.
And I'll happily wager a week's paycheck on that.
In reply to frenchyd :
And to answer your question more directly, I'd NEVER give up a gas powered fan for an electric one. They are 2 different tools that do different jobs.
We use gas powered fans for evac fans. It's not a job that can be done with electric. Often explosive environments, etc.
There is ALWAYS gonna be work that must be done remotely from power grids, and much more quickly than can be done negotiating with power providers. For example... disaster relief. It's gonna be a very long time before battery powered heavy equipment can replace ICE.
My proposed "substation in a box" would probably be best owned by the utilities and rented to the job. Utilities love to charge for stuff like this. I'll wager a week of Paul's wages that the US military already has yards of them painted tan.
Will something like this happen quickly? No. During Paul's lifetime? Depends on how healthy his choices are :) I can see how it could happen if it turns out that the equipment has other redeeming abilities. It'll be the market that drives it, if something like the F150EV turns out to have advantages that industry decides can be scaled up, the rest will follow.
In reply to Keith Tanner :
Dang! You caught me!
My choices are sure to kill me soon, but I hoped I could sucker you into a bet!! Haha!
In reply to SVreX (Forum Supporter) :
Sealed electric motors for environments with an explosion risk are absolutely possible. A gas engine needs to be prepped (appropriate ignition system parts, etc.) for safe use in that environment anyway.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:
In reply to frenchyd :
And to answer your question more directly, I'd NEVER give up a gas powered fan for an electric one. They are 2 different tools that do different jobs.
We use gas powered fans for evac fans. It's not a job that can be done with electric. Often explosive environments, etc.
There is ALWAYS gonna be work that must be done remotely from power grids, and much more quickly than can be done negotiating with power providers. For example... disaster relief. It's gonna be a very long time before battery powered heavy equipment can replace ICE.
I do happen to agree with you. Although you got me on that gas powered fan. ( I was thinking of an airplane engine)
As far as how fast EV equipment replaces Diesels in construction? I sold to those guys for almost 30 years and it was extremely rare for any of them to change their thinking.
I watched guys going slowly broke because they stuck with obsolete practices and equipment because it was paid for. I was as successful as I was for as long as I was because I never sold the equipment. I sold efficiency. I'd tell them about an upcoming job and how to win the bid using the equipment I rented or sold.
Using that approach, doors were opened and desks cleared when I came around.
Customers had me on speed dial. It wasn't unusual for me to get a call for equipment any time of the night or day. Sometimes referrals.
Building that sort of reputation required me to be not just ahead of most salesmen but focused on their needs. That's why the last year in the industry I spent it helping contractors do the planning and modifications to stay afloat in the coming recession. Even though it didn't put a dime in my pocket.
