mtn said:But in that situation, we can reasonably assume that this person is in a relatively urban or suburban area, and a charging station is nearby at a grocery store or similar.
Ehhh. I'm not an expert on this, I just know that's an additional annoyance.
Keith Tanner said:A couple of things that are true now and is unlikely to change in the future:
-the biggest expense in building an EV is the battery. A 400 mile range vehicle will always cost more than a 300 mile vehicle because it needs 33% more battery. We can construct elaborate scenarios to justify why we need something that has 33% more range, but will the market actually pony up? Or will the market say "I might have to charge once, but I'll save a bunch of money by buying the 300 mile range variant". I suspect the latter, and that the market will settle on an acceptable range/cost trade off that is between 250 and 300 miles.
-extra range only saves you noticeable travel time if your trip is less than the maximum range but more than the range of a lesser vehicle. You can see this by playing with the Tesla trip planner and comparing a Model 3 to a Model S. As soon as the trip length is further than a straight shot in the S, the difference evens out. That's because you're still using about the same amount of energy and that energy has to be replenished. There are some interesting edge cases when you're getting right up against the max range of a vehicle because of the physics of charging to 100%, but overall it's shown me that the extra range between a 300 mile 3 and a 400 mile S is rarely actually valuable. Even if the trip is between 300 and 400 miles, the charging stop is very short because you need less than 100 miles of extra range, and that's about the length of an ICE gas stop. I have found this interesting to learn and didn't anticipate it.
- weight is not the significant factor in highway energy use, aero is. As long as your passengers are inside the vehicle instead of strapped on the roof, you shouldn't see a major change in range by loading up for a family trip.
Toyota said last night customers will need to decide on range or price. I think that's valid. With an average daily trip of 50 miles or less. Spending a lot of money for an extra 100 miles of range isn't logical. Even on a weekend with a lot of running around, it takes but a minute to plug in to the supercharger at Target or other places along the way. Each 15 minutes of charge gets another 150 mile range.
So anything over 200 is likely a waste.
On another thought I've noticed how far oil companies are going to put their wells in. Look at the North Atlantic. The cost of those wells is beyond comprehension. Now they are planning on drilling in the attic circle? Drilling in the desert was tough enough. Then they had to transport that oil all over the world. War zones, jungles, etc. plus eventually they pull all the oil out. At $50 a barrel they need $3.50 a gallon at the pump to earn the sort of profit required. How much more than $50 a barrel will it take to get artic oil and other difficult to extract oil?
Compare that to solar and wind. Both of which show up in our backyards for free. With no transportation costs or refinement costs involved.
Tight fisted Farmers were happy to put up windmills to pump their water. Without the need for spread sheets and fincial planners.
Why are we so different?
tuna55 said:I am waiting as well. My theory is that people who buy expensive cars are likely to buy a new shiny EV expensive car, see Tesla, Rivian, etc. The cost-effective crowd buys minivans, but is going to work that spreadsheet hard. I am looking forward to the Canoo, not because it's a minivan, but because someone finally realized that you can actually sell a skateboard thing with different bodies affordably. I hope they succeed. One day, a minivan shell fits there nicely.
Our grandfathers ( or great grandfathers in your case probably ) read about windmills and couldn't wait to buy one to save the work required to pump water.
They embraced tractors over horses without confirming it on a spread sheet. When the Model T came around they paid their $5 a month gladly to get one. Trips to town became a weekly event rather than 4 times a year. Once a year they'd go visit relatives they hadn't seen since their wedding. Ma would bring her eggs to town and sell them to the grocer,maybe getting some coffee and sugar.
What's happened to us? Why can't we see a good thing without nit picking looking for flaws?
There is enough variety and studies done. Now it's just a matter of doing.
STM317 said:rothwem said:ProDarwin said:rothwem said:Sure there's fast chargers, but its not as efficient, using more power to charge than a slow charger. There's even talk of liquid cooling chargers...you know where that heat is going? Waste. It seems to me that it would be better to have a larger capacity and let the batteries charge at a more sustainable rate.
The faster chargers are generally (significantly) more efficient.
Hm, that's interesting. Do you have any links about it? I knew that it was typically more expensive per KWh, had more heat buildup and was typically less good for the battery life, I thought efficiency played into it as well. Is it because there's a "fatter pipe" for the electricity to power through? Be gentle, I barely made it through ECE101.
EV batteries and electronics use DC power. The juice that comes out of your wall at home (120V or 240V) is AC, so an onboard inverter has to convert from AC power supplied to the vehicle, to DC power used by the vehicle and that process involves losses.
The Fast Chargers where you pay to charge in public are DC from the start, so they skip that conversion step and maintain higher efficiency.
D'oh, I forgot about the DC charging. Makes sense that its more efficient. I guess they use a big transformer in the ground next to the charging stations so that even if you take the powerline AC to vehicle efficiency into account its probably better than a low voltage home system.
Just conceptually though, if you used DC power to get the KWh's into your car, would it be less wasteful to do it at a slower rate? Or would it not matter.
If we're looking at the most efficient way to move families across the country, take the train :)
I'm not sure the relative charging efficiencies of fast vs slow charging are all that significant. They do have an effect on the lifetime of the battery, fast charging is more damaging - although looking at user-based data, not as much as expected. It may be at the point where it's lost in the general noise of the data.
ProDarwin said:mtn said:But in that situation, we can reasonably assume that this person is in a relatively urban or suburban area, and a charging station is nearby at a grocery store or similar.
Ehhh. I'm not an expert on this, I just know that's an additional annoyance.
Not really any more of an annoyance than getting to said friend's apartment then having to go out and find where the local gas station is. The fueling part may be a different amount of time, but the rest of it is exactly the same.
I think a lot of people are really simply looking for reasons not even try, instead of listening to people that actually live with these cars on a daily basis.
In reply to Chris_V :
Why be so dismissive of other people's concerns and requirements? It's not like people are looking for reasons not to try, it's that the cost of trying is literally tens of thousands of dollars. We're not talking about switching to a different brand of coffee.
I'm really excited about electrifying my family transportation appliance, but right this second there isn't a single vehicle that meets my current needs at a price that's competitive with the humble minivan.
Chris_V said:ProDarwin said:mtn said:But in that situation, we can reasonably assume that this person is in a relatively urban or suburban area, and a charging station is nearby at a grocery store or similar.
Ehhh. I'm not an expert on this, I just know that's an additional annoyance.
Not really any more of an annoyance than getting to said friend's apartment then having to go out and find where the local gas station is. The fueling part may be a different amount of time, but the rest of it is exactly the same.
I think a lot of people are really simply looking for reasons not even try, instead of listening to people that actually live with these cars on a daily basis.
Don't forget as I type these requirement for a people hauler, I already own an EV, and it's my second!
I have something like 70,000 mi on electric vehicles. Keith made a good point above, we do make rest stops on long trips, and if the chargers at those stops were capable of making a dent in the 10 or 20 minutes that we were stopped, that makes a 300 to 400 mi range vehicle pretty useful on even a very long trip.
Chris_V said:ProDarwin said:mtn said:But in that situation, we can reasonably assume that this person is in a relatively urban or suburban area, and a charging station is nearby at a grocery store or similar.
Ehhh. I'm not an expert on this, I just know that's an additional annoyance.
Not really any more of an annoyance than getting to said friend's apartment then having to go out and find where the local gas station is. The fueling part may be a different amount of time, but the rest of it is exactly the same.
I think a lot of people are really simply looking for reasons not even try, instead of listening to people that actually live with these cars on a daily basis.
What we are speculating about is annoyances to the general public, which will slow adoption of EVs. Do they not want to try? Maybe. Are they lazy? Yes, of course.
That said, I would consider having to find an EV spot to charge much more of an annoyance than stopping at whatever gas station I pass on the way in/out. En route stops are fine. Leaving my destination to go park elsewhere and stand around for an hour sounds pretty crappy.
Of course, thats a once every few years concern for me, no big deal. I'd happily by an EV with way less range than the numbers tossed around in this thread if they made a form factor I enjoy at a reasonable price.
In reply to ProDarwin :
I have known people who would rent a vehicle for long trips because if they had any kind of mechanical issue, they call the rental company and continue the trip in another car, and the mechanical Problem is Someone Else's.
With that mindset, it doesn't make sense to compromise a purchased vehicle to satisfy a once every few years concern.
It's the "stand around for an hour" concept that comes from gas cars. You shouldn't leave one of those alone while refueling.
But an EV, you abandon. Do it while you're at dinner, or shopping, or wandering around looking at the Christmas lights at the Denver Botanical Garden or something. Or just grab a book and hide from family for a little while :) The point is that it's off-duty time for you.
They don't fit every need, and the purchase price of ICE vehicles will remain lower for a long time (but maybe not TCO). But a lot of the perceived barriers are not barriers, especially if you're willing to adjust to the differences in how they work instead of trying to make them work exactly the same way as an ICE.
I think the biggest difference is that you're trading some potential convenience on a rare event for day to day convenience. We accept having to stop for gas all the time in daily use. It's a small but continual hassle, becoming bigger if the weather is poor or we plan badly. But if you ask a lot of EV drivers, not having to go to the gas station is a major life improvement. Sure, car guys might not care. But ask your significant other. It's one of the big things Janel loves about her EV and I had no idea. Having to stop to charge on road trips is a price she will happily pay in exchange.
In reply to Keith Tanner :
That's a good point as well. I love never ever ever ever ever having to go to a gas station. They are terrible places, often somehow filled with terrible smells, sights, garbage, and nonsense.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:In reply to ProDarwin :
I have known people who would rent a vehicle for long trips because if they had any kind of mechanical issue, they call the rental company and continue the trip in another car, and the mechanical Problem is Someone Else's.
With that mindset, it doesn't make sense to compromise a purchased vehicle to satisfy a once every few years concern.
Absolutely. Try to convince the general public of that though.
All I was pointing out is that it is one more mark against EVs, whether rational or not. Honestly, I don't think the range "issue" is an issue at all, but it certainly seems like a lot of potential buyers do, even if its a 0.1% use case.
tuna55 said:In reply to Keith Tanner :
That's a good point as well. I love never ever ever ever ever having to go to a gas station. They are terrible places, often somehow filled with terrible smells, sights, garbage, and nonsense.
Yeah, I think they need to do a better job of selling this. In my usage with Bolt-range I would've used a public charger like twice in the last 5 years.
ProDarwin said:Pete. (l33t FS) said:In reply to ProDarwin :
I have known people who would rent a vehicle for long trips because if they had any kind of mechanical issue, they call the rental company and continue the trip in another car, and the mechanical Problem is Someone Else's.
With that mindset, it doesn't make sense to compromise a purchased vehicle to satisfy a once every few years concern.
Absolutely. Try to convince the general public of that though.
All I was pointing out is that it is one more mark against EVs, whether rational or not. Honestly, I don't think the range "issue" is an issue at all, but it certainly seems like a lot of potential buyers do, even if its a 0.1% use case.
tuna55 said:In reply to Keith Tanner :
That's a good point as well. I love never ever ever ever ever having to go to a gas station. They are terrible places, often somehow filled with terrible smells, sights, garbage, and nonsense.
Yeah, I think they need to do a better job of selling this. In my usage with Bolt-range I would've used a public charger like twice in the last 5 years.
I have owned the bolt for 2 years now, and I have used public chargers three times, and each was just for fun. I have never really needed it. Even when I drove my normal route to work and then to the Charlotte airport and back home in one day. I stopped at Harris teeter to get a snack and to go to the bathroom and just charged for free while I was there.
Once a year (twice if we're lucky), my wife and I load up the van and drive from cold, gray Columbus, OH, to warm, sunny Indian Rocks Beach, FL. Other family members (our son, our mothers, my sis-in-law, our niece) have a standing invitation and opt in or opt out depending on their circumstances.
The trip takes 16.5 hours of actual driving, but ~20 hours of real time. We leave Columbus after dinner and I drive all night. Overnight fuel stops take ~10 min because everyone but me has fallen asleep. We stop for a big breakfast and gas in southern GA, which usually takes ~90 min. My wife takes over behind the wheel and I take a nap. Now everyone's awake and any stop takes ~20 min (pee, buy drinks, stretch, etc). Just north of Tampa, we make a final stop and I take over b/c my wife hates driving in Tampa. I drive to the condo, we unload the van, get a nice big meal, and turn in early. Then it's six days of beach fun, family togetherness, mild sunburn, and fresh fish dinners until Saturday morning, when we leave to come home.
In your quest to save humanity from internal combustion engines and drowsy drivers, could y'all please just leave me and my family alone and let us do our thing? Flying is too hassle-filled and expensive, renting a vehicle is too expensive, driving during the day involves 2- to 4-hour traffic jams, and I have no desire to wait at Love's for an hour while my new $50,000 electric van slowly charges, when I could have fueled my good old $6K Odyssey, taken a whiz, and bought a Red Bull in 10 min.
Please - just let us be. Thanks.
I think it's odd how the availability of a vehicle run on a different fuel would make you think it would cause you any problems. The supply of used up old gas powered minivans will last the rest of your life. Nobody is going to take them from you. Why would you feel to need to ask anyone to "let us be?"
Nobody here is stopping you from doing that. But if you read what's being posted, you might learn how this annual trip might change if technology changes and you're now buying a good old $6 Model Y that's 10 years old to replace a worn-out Odyssey.
You're saying your trip takes 20 hours with 3.5 hours stopped. I plugged in a trip from Columbus, OH to Indian Rocks Beach, FL with a Model Y and it said that total trip time is 21 hours. The last stop is in Gainsville so you can take over then. That's the extra time it would take you to do that trip today with the best selling EV on the market, which will be the most common used EV in 10 years. FYI.
Meanwhile, the rest of the year, you're not spending any time at gas stations. You're not spending any money on oil changes or timing belts. Is this tradeoff worth the extra hour each way for that annual trip? You get to make that decision.
In reply to Keith Tanner :
Ok, I plugged it in on plugshare because I was curious what difference it would be, but it only showed me the chargers along the way and total mileage. How did you get it to show time and stops? Or can you not plan trips from the app, which seems really dumb.
In reply to dculberson :
I think some are just tired of the overbearing and judgemental attitude that some of the more aggressive electrification enthusiasts have. Maybe that's not you or anybody in this thread or even on these forums, but there's a lot of them out there and I'd wager that most of them drive Teslas.
Encountering that attitude in random places creates a fair amount of resentment because it's insensitive to the fact that a $40k entry fee is a huge ask for a majority of people. As time goes on, prices come down, charging networks expand, and a greater variety of EVs become available people are naturally going to move away from combustion powered cars.
Most of us with minivans don't choose them because we have a burning passion for them. They're chosen because they're the most flexible option for families, and as of this moment there isn't a cheap or even expensive option that can replace them.
Most EV enthusiasts drive Teslas because most EVs are Teslas :) It's just a matter of numbers.
RevRico, I did the calculation on the Tesla site because I'm familiar with it so it was quick and easy: https://www.tesla.com/trips. I've heard good things about https://abetterrouteplanner.com which is a more vehicle-agnostic calculator.
It will be interesting to see how long it takes before people start looking at TCO instead of initial purchase price. Money saved on fuel can directly offset a car payment, so a $40k EV will not cost as much each month as a $40k gas vehicle. The actual offset depends on the amount driven and the cost of both power (relatively stable on the short term) and gasoline (very much not stable on the short term). Maintenance is a little harder to get a handle on because a lot of people don't pay attention to it, but even a $50 oil change every 5000 miles adds up.
Note that $40,000 is actually lower than the average new vehicle price in the US, so a $40k vehicle is not as unattainble to the mass market as you might think.
Keith Tanner said:Most EV enthusiasts drive Teslas because most EVs are Teslas :)
Yup. ;)
Keith Tanner said:
Note that $40,000 is actually lower than the average new vehicle price in the US, so a $40k vehicle is not as unattainble to the mass market as you might think.
As of 2019 the average individual income in the US is $31,133. I think you greatly overestimate the number of Americans who can actually afford a brand new car at any price.
A $40k car is literally unattainable to the majority of Americans.
MrFancypants said:Keith Tanner said:
Note that $40,000 is actually lower than the average new vehicle price in the US, so a $40k vehicle is not as unattainble to the mass market as you might think.
As of 2019 the average individual income in the US is $31,133. I think you greatly overestimate the number of Americans who can actually afford a brand new car at any price.
A $40k car is literally unattainable to the majority of Americans.
The average new car price is over $40k, what is there to dispute? https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/average-new-car-costs-price-increase/
Those who don't earn enough to afford that buy cheaper cars/used cars.
In reply to ProDarwin :
Yeah that's my point, that it's going to take time because EVs are pretty expensive right now... unless you can make do with a very used Nissan Leaf with its golf cart range. With this in mind expressing the attitude that people aren't buying EVs because they refuse to give up on their combustion engines or other reasons sounds... kind of ridiculous.
MrFancypants said:Keith Tanner said:Most EV enthusiasts drive Teslas because most EVs are Teslas :)
Yup. ;)
Keith Tanner said:
Note that $40,000 is actually lower than the average new vehicle price in the US, so a $40k vehicle is not as unattainble to the mass market as you might think.
As of 2019 the average individual income in the US is $31,133. I think you greatly overestimate the number of Americans who can actually afford a brand new car at any price.
A $40k car is literally unattainable to the majority of Americans.
That is not the fault of EVs, though. Whether the majority of Americans can afford it or not is irrelevant, the average is the average.
As someone who thrives on 10-15 year old used cars, I accept this, and look to what holds up the best while also depreciating quickly, creating the highest value per Pete-dollar. Looking at Tesla resale values, I don't see their prices cratering anytime soon, nor any other decent EVs. (aka, Fiat 500e doesn't count)
Maybe in 30 years. If I'm still driving in 30 years.
In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :
I'm not blaming EVs for being priced at where they are, I'm just stating a fact... a $40k car is a big ask for most people.
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