I'm surprised that nobody has opened a discussion about this.
Some of us were just a little shocked.
But the idea is to supply ride sharing companies with autonomous cars. Aka, removing the driver from Uber.
Talk.
I'm surprised that nobody has opened a discussion about this.
Some of us were just a little shocked.
But the idea is to supply ride sharing companies with autonomous cars. Aka, removing the driver from Uber.
Talk.
Well, I am sure GM and Ford are not just ignoring what is going on with Tesla... I am sure the Japanese / European companies are not far behind either. They just don't have these "functional prototypes" running around on the roads for people to try out (illegally I am assuming?)
Can you explain why you are shocked? Earlier then you thought? Hadn't heard anything about it being a possibility?
totally awesome. I just got back from vacation where our plane flights both out and back got screwed up by mechanical malfunctioning planes.
When I can just order up an RV to my house, hop in at 8 pm, program it to my destination, and wake up at 8 am the next morning in the ideal location then airlines will have something real to contend with.
Robbie wrote: totally awesome. I just got back from vacation where our plane flights both out and back got screwed up by mechanical malfunctioning planes. When I can just order up an RV to my house, hop in at 8 pm, program it to my destination, and wake up at 8 am the next morning in the ideal location then airlines will have something real to contend with.
With the american penchant for getting bigger vehicles than we need (see soccer moms and SUV's), what horrors does the future hold!?!?!
In reply to aircooled:
When talking to other outside people- M-City in Ann Arbor- they indicated that most OEM's are taking a more conservative approach- walking the way to autonomous cars instead of jumping. And based on that, 5 years from now seems more of a leap.
Robbie wrote: totally awesome. I just got back from vacation where our plane flights both out and back got screwed up by mechanical malfunctioning planes. When I can just order up an RV to my house, hop in at 8 pm, program it to my destination, and wake up at 8 am the next morning in the ideal location then airlines will have something real to contend with.
I'd somehow never thought of this. Sign me up.
As for the Ford statement...I think that's terrible optimistic. But maybe I'm wrong. How long was it from Kennedy's challenge to the moon landing?
It would seem to me to be fully operational in 5 years would require a fleet of fully working prototypes NOW.
Apexcarver wrote:Robbie wrote: totally awesome. I just got back from vacation where our plane flights both out and back got screwed up by mechanical malfunctioning planes. When I can just order up an RV to my house, hop in at 8 pm, program it to my destination, and wake up at 8 am the next morning in the ideal location then airlines will have something real to contend with.With the american penchant for getting bigger vehicles than we need (see soccer moms and SUV's), what horrors does the future hold!?!?!
Here's the thing, with autonomous cars, I will never need to own a car at all. I just call up the RV when I need an RV, I call up the commuter when its just me, I call up a super-luxo car for dates, I call up a tow truck to pull my new race cars home or to the track, etc. None of them even take up my precious garage/driveway space. They are driving other people around when I don't need them. I imagine I could pay a subscription service for this, or individual rentals, whatever.
I dunno if the 'average' car will continue to get bigger or not, but I think the growth in the size of the car are mainly due to 2 needs in the marketplace, both of which will change heavily with autonomous cars. 1 need is safety (in general a bigger car is safer), and the other is flexibility (one car to carry kids, drive to work, road trip, haul home from lowes, tow race cars, etc). Autonomous cars will be way safer, and the flexibility can be solved more efficiently via the method I mentioned above. My guess is that autonomous cars will help significantly shrink the size of the average car.
ultraclyde wrote:Robbie wrote: totally awesome. I just got back from vacation where our plane flights both out and back got screwed up by mechanical malfunctioning planes. When I can just order up an RV to my house, hop in at 8 pm, program it to my destination, and wake up at 8 am the next morning in the ideal location then airlines will have something real to contend with.I'd somehow never thought of this. Sign me up. As for the Ford statement...I think that's terrible optimistic. But maybe I'm wrong. How long was it from Kennedy's challenge to the moon landing?
Less than a decade.
z31maniac wrote:ultraclyde wrote:Less than a decade.Robbie wrote: totally awesome. I just got back from vacation where our plane flights both out and back got screwed up by mechanical malfunctioning planes. When I can just order up an RV to my house, hop in at 8 pm, program it to my destination, and wake up at 8 am the next morning in the ideal location then airlines will have something real to contend with.I'd somehow never thought of this. Sign me up. As for the Ford statement...I think that's terrible optimistic. But maybe I'm wrong. How long was it from Kennedy's challenge to the moon landing?
Yeah, that's what I thought. And there wasn't money to made in that, only pride. Maybe they can do it in 5.
Apexcarver wrote: With the american penchant for getting bigger vehicles than we need (see soccer moms and SUV's), what horrors does the future hold!?!?!
The technology has been around for quite a while, as my former employer competed in an autonomous vehicle trek several years ago (heck, I even knew the PM for that program - good guy). And when I signed on with my current employer four years ago, they had (have) contracts with the Federal Highway Administration to make the roadways suitable for autonomous cars. 5 years might be a little sporty, but it's probably doable.
It won't be long that if I want to go for a drive where I'm in control, I'll have to strip away the old debris that hides a shining car, a brilliant red Miata from a better vanished time, to enjoy the feeling of wind in my hair, shifting and drifting... sunlight on chrome (the hard top latches, you know), the blur of the landscape, with every nerve aware.
Then I'm sure the authorities will be coming to get me in their gleaming alloy air cars, shooting towards me, two lanes wide. Can't be independent you know, the machines will come get you.
And it won't be just the gleaming alloy air cars, either. Soon after they will send the hunter killer machines, being hard to detect, mind you, as they have living tissue grown on top of a hyper-alloy combat chassis.
And Skynet exists, here in Tucson. It's a front behind the local news channel and their traffic cams, but we know the truth...
Robbie wrote: Here's the thing, with autonomous cars, I will never need to own a car at all. I just call up the RV when I need an RV, I call up the commuter when its just me, I call up a super-luxo car for dates, I call up a tow truck to pull my new race cars home or to the track, etc. None of them even take up my precious garage/driveway space. They are driving other people around when I don't need them. I imagine I could pay a subscription service for this, or individual rentals, whatever.
Having seen the way the general public takes care of taxis and buses, I don't want to live in your dream world. The soda, urine, and vomit soaked seats, with graffiti sprayed everywhere, would make me want my own car back.
Toyman01 wrote:Robbie wrote: Here's the thing, with autonomous cars, I will never need to own a car at all. I just call up the RV when I need an RV, I call up the commuter when its just me, I call up a super-luxo car for dates, I call up a tow truck to pull my new race cars home or to the track, etc. None of them even take up my precious garage/driveway space. They are driving other people around when I don't need them. I imagine I could pay a subscription service for this, or individual rentals, whatever.Having seen the way the general public takes care of taxis and buses, I don't want to live in your dream world. The soda, urine, and vomit soaked seats, with graffiti sprayed everywhere, would make me want my own car back.
Well, just like a used car that doesn't have vomit in the drivers seat is arguably more valuable than one that does, I imagine there will be plenty of 'levels' of services that can ensure you only get a top quality car (assuming you are willing to pay for the level of service).
Another example: You may have sat in a nasty seat in economy section on a plane or train, but I bet you have never had to sit in a nasty one while riding first class.
And also, of course you could still own your own car, just like you can amidst the taxis in a big city now. You would only be saddled with the extra cost of it sitting there idle when you are not using it, and the cost of storing it (also, just like you are now).
It's an interesting fantasy. Maybe a tenth of it will become real. Try finding an uber outside a major metropolitan area now.. Wife and I went on vacation to a resorting town in the mountains and found no lift or uber vehicles within 45 miles. Automating a car won't change that .
And I'll pass on having to leave the house in the morning with my work bag, gym bag with clothes and possibly a softball bag in tow. And I'll really pass on bringing all that crap with me to the dugout while I play my game. Same is true getting stuff home from the store. I'd rather not have to lug my hardware store purchases through the grocery store with me. there is a reason i need to have my own car with me and part of that is to have my trunk. You can't get that with uber.
When's the last time a manufacturer carried out a 100% of an outlandish, weird, or cool idea? Vtec?
The beauty of the five year plan is that everything seems attainable in that period of time but it still seems "soon", yet it's long enough than most people will forget it by the time 5 years is up, and by that time you have plenty of time to arm yourself with excuses.
The North Korean government loves 5 year plans.
In reply to drdisque:
True, in the 1950s we were promised flying cars in the future.
In reply to drdisque:
Everything major is on a 5 year work plan. In theory, it means that all systems are fully ready for development. In theory.
Then again, 2021 MY is 2020 introduction, so it's more like 4 years.
itsarebuild wrote: It's an interesting fantasy. Maybe a tenth of it will become real. Try finding an uber outside a major metropolitan area now.. Wife and I went on vacation to a resorting town in the mountains and found no lift or uber vehicles within 45 miles. Automating a car won't change that . And I'll pass on having to leave the house in the morning with my work bag, gym bag with clothes and possibly a softball bag in tow. And I'll really pass on bringing all that crap with me to the dugout while I play my game. Same is true getting stuff home from the store. I'd rather not have to lug my hardware store purchases through the grocery store with me. there is a reason i need to have my own car with me and part of that is to have my trunk. You can't get that with uber.
Automating cars will absolutely change their 'uber' availability. Essentially anyone who owns a car could leave it on 'uber mode' or whatever to prowl around and make money while the owner sleeps. There are few ubers in remote locations because there are too few riders to make paying a human driver to wait around. Cars don't have to get paid to wait.
Want to leave stuff in your car? No biggie, just keep the car 'rented' while your stuff is in there. Even current car share programs have this ability (and technically you can pay a taxi or uber driver to sit there with your stuff in the trunk too, but I doubt many people do it because of the expense).
JohnRW1621 wrote: In reply to drdisque: True, in the 1950s we were promised flying cars in the future.
Yeah, but technology wasn't the limiting factor, practicality and cost were.
I'll leave it to Alfa to say how far along Ford is, but it's not very far away.
The autonomous capability has been around in demo form for probably close to ten years, so it's down to packaging and cost.
12 years ago, there was a project at my old job that required a terabyte of memory, but it wasn't available. Now you're buying multiples of terabytes for your laptop or iPad.
And I don't know how long my current company has had the autonomous highway contracts, but it's at minimum 4 years, and figure double that.
It might be optimistic, but it is far, far from impossible.
I'd be willing to bet it's the liability aspect that is the long pole in the tent, not anything technical.
OldGray320i wrote: I'll leave it to Alfa to say how far along Ford is, but it's not very far away.
For this, honestly, I don't know. I hear the news when you hear it...
We see one of the prototypes all the time, but other than seeing it, I know nothing about it or the progress.
Heck, I know more from the M-City tour I took a year ago than I get from work.
alfadriver wrote: But the idea is to supply ride sharing companies with autonomous cars. Aka, removing the driver from Uber.
Ford has been setting this up for awhile now. I first realized it when they rebranded themselves as "a mobility company" a year or so ago. As vehicles become more and more technologically advanced, they also become obsolete much faster. If the trend holds, then buying new vehicles in the future will be less and less appealing to more and more people. But people will still need to get around, and car/mobility companies want their piece of that growing pie.
There are rumors that GM is trying to purchase or partner with Lyft for similar reasons.
It will be interesting to see how this actually plays out. The technology is certainly interesting, but the ways in which it could change how we live, work and move around is even more interesting. Will there even be a profession called 'truck driver' in 30 years?
I remember bits of an article/story about the future in Car and Driver years ago. The last car not automated was a Ferrari and was being pursued by the automated government agent police evil empire cars. Starting to come true? Part of the master plan? Quick Sancho; tinfoil to cover the car and block rays from the drones!
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