How cheap could a new car be built?

alfadriver said:

In reply to 93EXCivic :

For cars, tooling costs have to be balanced with maintenance costs, as far as I know.  Like a body stamping tool will wear out over time, making it less likely that the weld lines line up.  Or casting dies.  

You are correct about that. But that's why I suggested plastics.  Tooling lasts much longer and material costs. Would be trivial. 
       I don't know enough from my causal reading to know what is the correct plastic or plastics combinations.   I've engineered race chassis.   But goals would be seriously different.   The Germans are engineering end of life recycling.  Clearly that is something that needs serious attention. 

In reply to frenchyd :

Look at your car history- plastics have been tried before.  Only works for part of the car.  And it's not recycled plastic like all of the metal is (or can be).  

BTW, everyone is engineering for end of life- not just the germans.  Just like everyone is trying to use more than recycled or compostable materials more than just the metal.  Literally everyone.

In reply to alfadriver :

Yeah that is my experience with chassis parts but from what I have seen the maintenance is smaller then overall cost of the tooling. It also depends on how the companies involve agree to the amortization. Some Tier 1 suppliers may want a shorter time period on amortization then others.

frenchyd said:

alfadriver said:

In reply to 93EXCivic :

For cars, tooling costs have to be balanced with maintenance costs, as far as I know.  Like a body stamping tool will wear out over time, making it less likely that the weld lines line up.  Or casting dies.  

You are correct about that. But that's why I suggested plastics.  Tooling lasts much longer and material costs. Would be trivial. 
 

You are still going to have a lot of metal parts (or you have to going to high strength composites which are going to be even more pricey). The base of the chassis and a lot of the suspension is going to be metal (probably steel).

A simple mold in tool steel like a two piece mold for a small part is going to run $4-$10k in my experience. It can easily hit $50k or more for complex parts with lots of slides and pins. Steel stamping tool for something as simple as a swaybar mounting bracket are going to run over $100k. Think how many parts are in a car even a really simple car and consider then how many parts are in each of those parts. Then you have to hold reasonable tolerances so that everything works as it should.

Then add in custom reusable packaging to keep those parts in good shape until assembly. Get shipping routes sorted to get those parts from the supplier to the factory. Shipping parts to said factory. The tooling needed to assembly the car. R&D to design all those parts whether that is internal or you are paying the Tier 1 for the design. Paying people to assemble the car. Performing at the needed checks to unsure the car is roadworthy (brake checker, engine dyno, alignment machines, light tunnels, etc). Maintaining the factory. Covering the costs of warranty. All that adds up to a fairly high starting point for what a car can actually cost.

SV reX said:

In reply to 93EXCivic :

So, the cost of tooling can be minimized, but not the cost of actual production. 

Yes and no. It really depends on the part. For example, at a previous job, I was quoting thermal paste (which is also used in automotive applications). There was a cost difference between still at 1 million units a year versus 500k but the cost difference was less then between 250k and 500k. As with a bolt I look at recently, there was a bit of a price difference between 600k and 1 million. But have also had parts quoted where there is no cost difference after a certain volume for example some off the shelf electronic parts. So I would expect a 1 million units a year to be cheaper then 300k but the difference would less then 250k to 50k. But tool and supplier design cost amortization can have a bigger effect. Again this is all just in my experience at various companies as an engineer involved in manufacturing and cost improvement. 

In reply to frenchyd :

A 100 mile lead acid battery pack would be impractically heavy, impractically large, impractically slow charging, impractically slow discharging, and have an impractically short lifespan. Have you factored in the cost of regularly replacing the entire lead-acid battery pack against your lifetime (for a car like you're describing, should be calculated at 40-50 mpg) gas costs comparison? Small gas powertrains, while having more parts, are significantly cheaper than even a lead-acid battery electric powertrain. And while electricity may be cheaper than gas per mile, it is also certainly not free, and the geographic price variation is substantially more than that of gas.

But if you're suddenly deciding to change the assumptions now to focus on long term operating costs over rock-bottom up front purchase cost, as you've added to your arguments, including the wildly baseless assumption that typical buyers will do the same... Have you compared the cost of replacing the entire lead-acid battery pack 3x-4x more often than lithium ion? Then again, building a car at this price point, the rest of the car is just as likely to not outlive the lead-acid battery pack anyway... So perhaps 3x-4x more frequent total car replacement should be factored into the long term costs too.

Thinking that entry level employees can/will count on their current and future employers giving enough of a E36 M3 about them to provide free charging for all is as much of a joke as them being able to count on their current and future apartments giving enough of a E36 M3 about them to spend the extra on providing any type of charging power to their parking spaces. For a myriad of reasons, both business models are generally built on the premise of spending no more than is absolutely necessary to meet the minimum legal standards.

Flexible solar panels are far more expensive than than the same area of paint. It's a cost add that creates it's extremely minimal benefit only under ideal (sunny mid-day) conditions. The cost/benefit for solar on cars is not very good even on cost-is-no-object EV's. If you're trying to build the cheapest possible car, this is simply a non-starter.

Cheap plastics are not strong, recycled cheap plastics are even less so, and they have mechanical properties that vary greatly with environmental conditions like temperature. This would be a terrible choice for the primary (safety and crash) structure of a car, requiring an impractical volumetric (size, weight, and cost) increase... And at 1M units per year, you'd either have to provide massive investments in dramatically expanding cheap plastic recycling capacities, or you'd drive the price of recycled cheap plastics way up.

As I've said. Previously i  don't believe lead acid and lithium  are the only two choices for batteries.   But  we'll see won't we ?  As a serious gear head I'd like to have a cheap 100 hp ICE  proven a real value. 
  I'm not sure 100 horsepower is even needed.  VW had what ? 36 hp?  My MGTD has only 54 horsepower.  It goes 75 mph.  Is more really needed?  EV's with peak torque at zero RPM don't need the heavy transmission ICE's do  so that's a weight savings. 
 Maybe 75 hp? Or even 50 hp?  Would that be enough?  Assume a weight of 1000 pounds.  then how much battery would be needed to get 100 mile range?   Is 100 too much?  Remember this is a cheap commuter car.  Not a truck or race car.  
   
    Up front costs do matter since the whole idea is good quality transportation at a low cost. 
To that effect exact requirements  aren't chiseled in stone.   I suggested plastics because  they are cheap and I've seen  how strong and durable they can be made.
     . The price of wood pallets has been rather steady for a while while plastic pallets is getting a bigger and bigger market share. 
  As far as strength goes, Morgan's with their wood framework aren't real strong but they sure are real fun!  
        Plus plastics. Can be easily " popped" back into place after a little fender bender.   Low cost goal remember? 
   Not everyone in America is going to want a good low cost transportation module.  To some the car is a status symbol , or a work horse to carry tools and lumber.  
  Some use it for showing off or racing.  All legitimate reasons.  
     But there aren't enough American single moms  or college students.  Working stiffs who just need to get to work.  To sell a million a year. So sales are going to have to  go global    That means  low cost, reliable durable and simple.    
   

93EXCivic said:

SV reX said:

In reply to 93EXCivic :

So, the cost of tooling can be minimized, but not the cost of actual production. 

Yes and no. It really depends on the part. For example, at a previous job, I was quoting thermal paste (which is also used in automotive applications). There was a cost difference between still at 1 million units a year versus 500k but the cost difference was less then between 250k and 500k. As with a bolt I look at recently, there was a bit of a price difference between 600k and 1 million. But have also had parts quoted where there is no cost difference after a certain volume for example some off the shelf electronic parts. So I would expect a 1 million units a year to be cheaper then 300k but the difference would less then 250k to 50k. But tool and supplier design cost amortization can have a bigger effect. Again this is all just in my experience at various companies as an engineer involved in manufacturing and cost improvement. 

 You obviously are the best informed person to ask these questions.  What's your gut feeling regarding the cost of building a basic car on the cheap?   
 I. In theory could a good quality basic as heck car be built very much on the cheap?  I mean they are doing it in India  but not in volume and not with quantity. I suspect there is too much hand labor and  that destroys  potential quality.  

In reply to frenchyd :

You are lumping way too many products under the one title "plastics". There actually are thousands of different plastics, each with its own composition and characteristics.

When you say "plastics", I think you are imagining things like carbon fiber F1 suspension pieces, or similar plastics that would make good structural components. Those are plastic, but they are definitely not cheap.  They are also not recycled.  Picture fender wells, plastic backer panels, foam and upholstery if you want to see what is commonly done with recycled plastics.  They are plastic, but they will never be structural components.

50% of the volume of a modern vehicle is made from plastics (only 10% of the weight), and 25% of those plastics are already recycled. Most of the metal components in a car are closer to 90% or more recycled.

Plastic ain't magic, and auto engineers have been using plastics in every way they can conceive for a very long time.

In reply to frenchyd :

If you can't come up with a viable battery technology to back your EV arguments, then we might as well be comparing it against ICE powered by compressed unicorn farts with rainbow emissions.

In reply to SV reX :

Yes I clearly understood that. I just wrote about it.  
   But demands change from 4000 pound sedans to little 1000 pound commuters. 
    Have you ever driven one of the flexible flyers like a Morgan or early MG  T series?  Proof that you don't need Uber stiff to have fun.

In reply to frenchyd :

Yes but flexy fliers don't pass modern crash regs.  Even making a barebones car now is going to be significantly more than 1000lbs

Driven5 said:

In reply to frenchyd :

If you can't come up with a viable battery technology to back your EV arguments, then we might as well be comparing it against ICE powered by compressed unicorn farts with rainbow emissions.

Really?  You want engineering data before we decide  what is called for to make this viable?  

In reply to ProDarwin :

Ah. You haven't kept up.  
  Go back a bit and read the suggestion about 3 wheelers. 

Ah ok if you want to move the goalposts to make a motorcycle, sure the problem is a lot easier to solve

I wouldn't call it a motorcycle.  I mean doors, seatbelts, windshield and windows?  But if the DMV is happy? 
 

 Seriously the Morgan 3 wheeler  really tickles my fancy.  
 Think this diverts too far from a car?   
    

frenchyd said:

Driven5 said:

In reply to frenchyd :

If you can't come up with a viable battery technology to back your EV arguments, then we might as well be comparing it against ICE powered by compressed unicorn farts with rainbow emissions.

Really?  You want engineering data before we decide  what is called for to make this viable?  

Customers. Customers are required to make this viable. And you won't have any. 
 

Speaking as someone who absolutely loves the Morgan, I would never, never, NEVER buy one as a daily driver. Period. 
 

And I STRONGLY believe the general buying public would not buy them either.

You are suggesting single moms and college students would drive a Morgan as a daily driver?  A vehicle with no crash testing and no safety measures?

When Hell freezes over.

frenchyd said:

Driven5 said:

In reply to frenchyd :

If you can't come up with a viable battery technology to back your EV arguments, then we might as well be comparing it against ICE powered by compressed unicorn farts with rainbow emissions.

Really?  You want engineering data before we decide  what is called for to make this viable?  

So which other fantasy technologies are we including in the discussion? Perhaps capacitors with the energy density of gasoline?... Or maybe Mr Fusion? I mean, it really is the most economical choice.

What would a base model 1972 Datsun or Toyota pickup cost today

I think they were about $2000 in 1972 dollars.....

and would anyone buy one with no power steering, no Air conditioning,  no safety stuff ?
 

I would say very few would be sold , we are spoiled !

So an EV meeting every stated requirement appears to already exist. It's even road legal in the United States, with a claimed 100 mile range and as close as any EV is going to get to a 1000 pound weight. If you really think you can find 1,000,000 people to buy one of these every year, you might even get the price down toward the $5k range. Good luck.

frenchyd said:

93EXCivic said:

SV reX said:

In reply to 93EXCivic :

So, the cost of tooling can be minimized, but not the cost of actual production. 

Yes and no. It really depends on the part. For example, at a previous job, I was quoting thermal paste (which is also used in automotive applications). There was a cost difference between still at 1 million units a year versus 500k but the cost difference was less then between 250k and 500k. As with a bolt I look at recently, there was a bit of a price difference between 600k and 1 million. But have also had parts quoted where there is no cost difference after a certain volume for example some off the shelf electronic parts. So I would expect a 1 million units a year to be cheaper then 300k but the difference would less then 250k to 50k. But tool and supplier design cost amortization can have a bigger effect. Again this is all just in my experience at various companies as an engineer involved in manufacturing and cost improvement. 

 You obviously are the best informed person to ask these questions.  What's your gut feeling regarding the cost of building a basic car on the cheap?   
 I. In theory could a good quality basic as heck car be built very much on the cheap?  I mean they are doing it in India  but not in volume and not with quantity. I suspect there is too much hand labor and  that destroys  potential quality.  

While I have some knowledge, I am not going to claim to know exactly how much some of these things cost but if you are making something at large volume and you are meeting all government requirements of a car and are able to leverage carryover parts and already have a factory I would guess somewhere in the $10k-$12k range for a standard ICE car absolutely no idea on electric. That is cost not including profit and absolutely bare bones vehicle but that is just an educated guess. If it was a completely new startup, I am honestly unsure. I would guess it would several thousand more but once again these are only guesses based on what I have seen.

In reply to 93EXCivic :

That's all that can be expected since we haven't even begun to discuss what exactly we're building.  Or what it's going to be built from.  Or how it's going to be built. 
     For example I have thought to pattern it after the Saturn a bit.  That had all plastic body panels.
       The Colin Chapman of Lotus Fame built a Lotus Elite  in the late 50's early 60's using noting but fiberglass  and a light fire pump engine  from WW2 fame.  The Coventry Climax. Very Pretty car. 
  I was thinking along those lines.   
except a modern updated version. Using modern Plastic's instead of fiberglass. 
      Scaling up those 3D  printers to full body size.  Next have the final act of the printer or a separate  robot push it over on top of the battery pack/motor / chassis.  Zip Zip Zip body connected to chassis and its rolling down the assembly line.  
       Further down the assembly line instrument panel  ( including  optional heater and wiring installed ( again by robots)   Doors go on.  windows ( consisting of glass  and a strap to allow  the windows  4 positions from full open to full closed  simply slide the strap to the required hook 

The  real solution here is to use only 3 wheels . Two in front  one in the rear.   ( Very stable that way, look at the Morgan Trike). The prime advantage is then motorcycle rules apply rather than car. 
  I'm thinking a 50 hp  Electric motor  should be able to go at least 85 mph. 
   With only 100 Mile  range  batteries won't be horribly expensive.  They would be charged by an onboard charger that could plug into a regular outlet.  And those flexible solar panels the Germans are making. Put it on top like a vinyl roof.  The purpose of those is for places where electricity isn't available.   It would probably take a couple of days  to charge to full capacity. But maybe electricity isn't that far away?  Or maybe it adds just enough range to get to where you're going?  
      

SV reX said:

In reply to frenchyd :

Saving gas money is not the business's problem. Producing a car they can sell and make money is.

A whole bunch of people, more and more as time goes by. Disagree with you. 
   They understand that the money for the car payment comes from the same pocket that pays for gas.  ( or visa Versa) 

Most  people buy transportation.  Some people buy to make a statement.   " hey,  look at my expensive car/truck"

   It's getting silly expensive ( and really not that satisfying)  to spend  over a $1000 a month on the payment  and hundreds more on the fuel.   
     That's why Electrics are up and coming.   
it may be before your time but big American Gas hogs became unpopular  back in the 70's& 80's while efficient little imports took more and more of the market. 
  So they lost market share and with it profits. To the point where they went Broke.  Even Ford Motor  had to Mortgage their Name  to survive.  
       Wealthy Americans no longer consider Cadillac and Lincoln a sign of success.  Preferring Mercedes and BMW.  Now Lexus 

It cost the big 3 the sedan market to figure that out and next will be pickup trucks.    The working tool of tradesmen and contractors.  But starting point is around $40000 with no down payment  taxes and license you're looking at $6-700 a month for 72-84 months. Too steep for a lot of people. 

californiamilleghia said:

What would a base model 1972 Datsun or Toyota pickup cost today

I think they were about $2000 in 1972 dollars.....

and would anyone buy one with no power steering, no Air conditioning,  no safety stuff ?
 

I would say very few would be sold , we are spoiled !

Back then $3-4-5 / hour was income.   Today it's $15-20 hr  

  Then there is inflation. A new bare bones  pickup.  Full  size or import could be  purchased around $2000  today that same pickup is $40,000  while some is A/C power steering , automatic.  And Safety.  Quality has dramatically improved. They aren't junk at 100,000 miles anymore  tires aren't shot at 20,000 ( if that) tailpipe and muffler replacement isn't  a semi annual thing. Brakes last 65-85,000 miles now   Etc.  

  Don't forget those imports had a expensive ocean to cross  and that to added dramatically to costs. Plus dollar hedging.  The dollar fluctuates enough so that a ship full of Toyota pickups  could net them X amount of profit  and  the next shipment minus X 

  By buying and selling dollars  against  the Yen that fluctuation is manageable ( at some real cost) 

SV reX said:

In reply to frenchyd :

You are lumping way too many products under the one title "plastics". There actually are thousands of different plastics, each with its own composition and characteristics.

When you say "plastics", I think you are imagining things like carbon fiber F1 suspension pieces, or similar plastics that would make good structural components. Those are plastic, but they are definitely not cheap.  They are also not recycled.  Picture fender wells, plastic backer panels, foam and upholstery if you want to see what is commonly done with recycled plastics.  They are plastic, but they will never be structural components.

50% of the volume of a modern vehicle is made from plastics (only 10% of the weight), and 25% of those plastics are already recycled. Most of the metal components in a car are closer to 90% or more recycled.

Plastic ain't magic, and auto engineers have been using plastics in every way they can conceive for a very long time.

GM and Colin Chapman would disagree with you.  The Saturn had plastic body panels.  Colin Chapman's Lotus Elite  was all plastic.   It held an 1100 cc climax engine. Respectably fast for the era.  Then there is the Corvette.  But yeh! that has at least a metal frame so I'll give you that.  
    I was thinking a big 3D printer   Using the right version of plastic. Rather than steel panels.