I will also add that only 10% of new car sales last year (source: WSJ) and only 4% of cars being built in the US right now are electric. (source: Bloomberg). Car and Driver, wiki, and a few other sources agree that the percentage of actual cars on the road (registered) is less than one percent, some claiming 0.67% to be more precise.
Of course that number is rapidly changing toward the electric side, but my punxsutawney phil prediction today is that we'll have 6 more decades (at least) until those numbers reverse. Even the most hopeful of EV manufacturing estimates are projecting that the roads will be 10% EV by 2030. This isn't a replace scenario. Our great-grandchildren will be able to purchase and drive an ICE vehicle.
GameboyRMH said:
VolvoHeretic said:
I think that eventually, we will be an all electric battery/hydrogen fuel cell society. It will take a long time and a lot of new technology and infrastructure. But, when it happens, how are all of us ICE collector guys going to find gas for our pride and joy? Aviation gas? Moonshine?
Electrofuels and biofuels.
I don't think hydrogen will be used outside of liquid hydrogen tanks on aircraft and spacecraft, it's just too much of a nightmare to transport and store, plus fuel cell vehicles are as expensive as EVs.
I'm wondering how long any kind of ICE gasoline infrastructure will stick around after the only car you can buy new is electric. Like Frenchy mentioned, when the last ICE car is sold, the vast majority of them will be gone in 20 years. It will be a niche market for ICE vehicle fuel.
In reply to VolvoHeretic :
At least 100 years. Even if you only allowed new sales to be EV right now, it would take decades for the the percentage of EV cars on the road to reach even 50%
It's the same reason you can still buy parts for a Flathead Ford. They're still around.
In reply to frenchyd :
I've solved the longe range towing issue for EV's.
Tell me that Frunk on a Lightening won't provide the perfect place for a hybrid? Use the shorter range battery pack, a decent sized generator and PHEV 270 mile range plus a sizable fuel tank and you run on the cheap electricity from home. Then start buying gas. Think that F150 would average 40-50 mpg ?
VolvoHeretic said:
I'm wondering how long any kind of ICE infrastructure will stick around after the only car you can buy new is electric.
About as long as there are still ICE (or turbine) vehicles on the road, which is going to be a while longer for semi trucks. Think about how long leaded gas stuck around after vehicles that needed it went out of production.
I figure worst case, you could buy future fossil fuel substitutes in barrels like you might buy race gas today.
VolvoHeretic said:
GameboyRMH said:
VolvoHeretic said:
I think that eventually, we will be an all electric battery/hydrogen fuel cell society. It will take a long time and a lot of new technology and infrastructure. But, when it happens, how are all of us ICE collector guys going to find gas for our pride and joy? Aviation gas? Moonshine?
Electrofuels and biofuels.
I don't think hydrogen will be used outside of liquid hydrogen tanks on aircraft and spacecraft, it's just too much of a nightmare to transport and store, plus fuel cell vehicles are as expensive as EVs.
I'm wondering how long any kind of ICE infrastructure will stick around after the only car you can buy new is electric.
Umm you can still buy coal Even though trains stopped using it before WW2
EVs are great for many things. Not so much for others. If the gubernment would just allow the market to evolve organically we'd have one less thing to fight over.
dps214 said:
They're not without their problems for sure though. I'm not an electric grid expert, but I'm pretty sure night time stops being "off peak" when 100% of the population is charging their cars at the same time.
Which is a good thing, no? The grid is more stable and the generators are better off when the load on the grid is more uniform over time.
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:
EVs are great for many things. Not so much for others. If the gubernment would just allow the market to evolve organically we'd have one less thing to fight over.
If we don't stop and reverse CO2 emissions pretty quick there will be way more things to fight over in the coming decades...from an environmental perspective, not just waiting for the market to evolve organically makes sense.
frenchyd said:
Even in areas that EV's are not good at ( long range towing) there are solutions. Stick a generator in the truck bed.
If you do the math, a "generator in the truck bed" is pointless. The size generator you need to meaningfully extend the range of a 3/4 ton truck towing an 8000 pound race car trailer is in the range of 60-80kw. These generators don't go in the bed, they weigh over 4000 pounds. They ARE the trailer.
In reply to codrus (Forum Supporter) :
You are not wrong, but given Mazda's announcement that their Wankel based range extender is no longer vaporware, I am really curious to see how small a generator can get.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:
You are not wrong, but given Mazda's announcement that their Wankel based range extender is no longer vaporware, I am really curious to see how small a generator can get.
It helps a lot that it takes a lot less power to push a car through the air than it does a big truck and a brick of a trailer. :)
codrus (Forum Supporter) said:
Pete. (l33t FS) said:
You are not wrong, but given Mazda's announcement that their Wankel based range extender is no longer vaporware, I am really curious to see how small a generator can get.
It helps a lot that it takes a lot less power to push a car through the air than it does a big truck and a brick of a trailer. :)
While that is true, it is also not really the right question. There are two angles to that: first, it is a range extender, not a device to keep you topped up. If it can only supply 50% of the average demand, you have doubled the battery's range.
The second is that even towing a trailer, you have opportunities to regenerate, which helps a lot compared to the ICE paradigm of all spent energy is gone forever. Gravity is a battery 
And when you are regenning with the traction motors, the range extender is still pumping juice into the battery too.
...The control algorithms are either simpler than I am envisioning or pretty complex. A job for someone with a different skill set than I have 
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:
GameboyRMH said:
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:
EVs are great for many things. Not so much for others. If the gubernment would just allow the market to evolve organically we'd have one less thing to fight over.
If we don't stop and reverse CO2 emissions pretty quick there will be way more things to fight over in the coming decades...from an environmental perspective, not just waiting for the market to evolve organically makes sense.
Like what a thriving rain forest, more trees and a cooling Antarctica? Those are all happening while CO2 is increasing (look it up). The data do not and have never supported the outlandish claims made by the doomsayers. The planet and mankind are far tougher than the doomsayers thing (thank goodness). The fact your assertion has thumbs up says the doomsayers excel at spreading fear. That's their real commodity fear. They use it to enrich and empower themselves. You can free yourself from it in seconds and ACTUALLY SAVE the PLANET for your kids and future generations. Or you can follow along with the program and allow your kids to grow up in an Orwellian nightmare; your choice.
EVs will thrive as the tech evolves and improves. Big gov't should get out of the way and let the people solve this problem without penalties, tarrifs, and silly decrees that are impossible to meet thanks to more intervention.
Free the markets for real and all of this is a non-issue and we will have cheap, better for the environment and planet and better for everyone EVs sooner and naturally. Using force to push this agenda is f'n things up and I'm sick of pretending it is not. I'm also sick and tired of pretending liars are somehow insightful leaders, visionaries or reputable sources. They are people like all of us but with one exception. They seek unlimited wealth and power and don't care how many other people they destroy to get it. Stop supporting their nonsense. EVs are just one of their stupid ill-informed do it now demands.
The danger of freeing the markets is extremely well known. Every rule we have has been learned the hard way. Then slippery folks convince the innocent and trusting to drop those rules and we are forced to learn all over again.
They are just as valid as stop signs and speed limits. Perhaps annoying and limiting but needed.
STM317
PowerDork
2/2/23 8:01 p.m.
RE emissions:
There are two categories of emissions in an ICE. The first is smog forming emissions that come as the result of combustion. These emissions stay local to the region that the vehicle is operated in, and they negatively impact air quality and harm human health (breathing issues, cancer, etc).
The second category is Greenhouse Gases, or the "carbon footprint" that we hear so much about. Gases in this category rise higher into the atmosphere and spread out over a larger area. These are the ones that are impacting the climate on a global level more than the smog forming stuff.
EV's skip the entire smog forming category because they have no combustion going on. Therefore, even if the EV's carbon footprint were identical to an ICE (on a long enough timeline the EV wins by a fair bit over comparable new ICE), they'd still be a benefit to society due to lack of smog forming tailpipe emissions.
That being said, PHEV's seem like a better compromise in the near term to me. They'd have lower carbon footprints for manufacture and get more total miles driven under electric power from the same amount of finite battery resources.
And of course, EV's being better overall doesn't mean that we should immediately abandon perfectly fine ICEs as manufacturing new stuff is typically the largest part of the environmental impact. Reducing consumption by using things that already exist to maximize their useful life will have a greater net benefit than junking decent functioning ICEs to convert to EVs.
Well said. Basically a PHEV is a range extender that can be quickly refilled.
Those of us with limited/ no needs for long trips won't need them but gives security to those who really do or imagine they do.
My real question is why must all long trips be done in new or near new vehicles?
Going on a long/vacation trip seems to be the #1 justification for a new car.
I typically traveled 1500-2000 miles a week in sales. Yet the truck /car held up beautifully. I digress. With planning I believe I could still do that with a Tesla.
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:
EVs are great for many things. Not so much for others. If the gubernment would just allow the market to evolve organically we'd have one less thing to fight over.
The thing is, without a push it won't happen. Or at least it will take much longer.
frenchyd said: I'll admit that an F150 is not a semi truck. Can't really haul a garage efficiently. Maybe the garage should stay at home? A trailer more suited to the load used?
Preaching about people should change their behaviour because it doesn't fit your fantasies about EVs isn't likely to get you very far. The topic was whether or not it was possible to do 100% replacement of ICE vehicles with EVs, and 3/4 and half ton trucks with enormous tow ratings over long distances are part of that 100%.
As for stopping to charge -- maybe YOU like to drive for an hour and then stop for an hour, but I don't. As you said in another thread, you're retired. I'm not, and when I'm towing my race car to a track the goal is to get there so I can race it, not to spend hours and hours taking in the scenery at every charging station along the way. Food? I can eat a sandwich while driving my truck just fine, thanks. Bathroom? Pull into the rest stop and it takes less than 5 minutes to pee and I'm back on the road.
Is a 4000 pound generator required? I was going based on what I could find off-the-shelf in Google search. The various towing tests have suggested that the Lightning (which, as you said, is not a 3/4 ton truck, meaning it's not ideal for an 8K trailer) uses pretty much all of its 130 kwh battery to go 100 miles. That's about 0.8 miles per kwh. If you're going 70 mph, then you're using 90 kw to overcome the drag, and the 60 kw generator I linked above is 2/3 of that and in a simple example would take you from 100 miles of range to 300.
As for what the minimum weight for a 60 kw generator would be, I dunno. I'm sure that Generac is overkill, some of that weight is the trailer chassis and it's built to run continuously at max output for days. OTOH a range extender is going to be expected to run at 100% duty cycle for a long time, so maybe not that much overkill. Even if you handwave and cut the weight by 75% to 1000 pounds, it's still not something you'd toss in the bed casually. This isn't a generator you pick up with anything less than an engine hoist. It would need to be built into the truck, would add a lot of cost, and would cut significantly into the payload rating.
As I said in my first post, I'm not anti-EV. I expect EVs could take 80% of the US passenger vehicle market without any government incentives at all, just because they're better at doing what that 80% are looking for. But 80% is not 100%.
codrus (Forum Supporter) said:
As I said in my first post, I'm not anti-EV. I expect EVs could take 80% of the US passenger vehicle market without any government incentives at all, just because they're better at doing what that 80% are looking for. But 80% is not 100%.
The thing is, today's EVs at today's prices can't cover 80% of the market, because 75% of those people will buy the cheaper ICE vehicle instead. The subsidies to buy an EV serve to increase the fraction of the market that today's EV can serve.
re: "a 60kw generator is really heavy", 60kw is 80 horsepower electrical, ~90hp mechanical, which is a Prius engine. Prius engines are extremely small and light compared to a genset on a trailer.
In reply to codrus (Forum Supporter) :
You are right. I was thinking of my own solution and the way I've thought in the past.
I built garages, er enclosed trailers. To keep the weight down I used fiberglass as my structure riveted to a platform to transfer the load to the wheels on tongue. ( like Colin Chapman did with the Lotus Elite). Yep I stole his idea. They were stiff, sturdy , and durable. Plus light!!
My newest example is much the same concept except I'm stealing from the Jaguar XKE this time. With help from Colin Chapman•••• Instead of 1800 pounds my goal is 500 pounds.
I'm sorry. I digress
People should do what they want to. But most trailer builders are focused on cheap rather than light. Oops.
GM built the Volt and sure it's not a big pickup truck but the concept is valid. Really what would it take Ford to turn the frunk into a generator? And the Lightening to a PHEV?
The trailer below was my prototype at this point it was nearing 20 years old so the Gel goat had a great layer of oxidation. Since I'd been out of the business for 10 years I didn't bother running a buffer over it.
Notice the curves. ? Reduced drag from buffeting. Trailer towed easier. I hated using the tandems. But found it impossible to sell a trailer without them.
All that is my excuse for thinking people should change.
If there's one thing I'm sure of, it's that EV's will replace ICE's. For some applications with some people, at some rate. Some people will like this and some people will not. Substitute "some" with "most" or "barely any" dependent on which phrase is less upsetting to you based upon your incomplete and speculative belief system.
In reply to Matthew Kennedy :
Great. I kinda thought that was overkill but didn't research. Me bad.
Thanks.
In reply to ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) :
You are correct. Commuters should buy EV's.
If range anxiety is really a problem buy a PHEV until you finally realize how little the engine needs to run to meet your requirements.
Long vacations? Rental? Or better take a train trip someplace. Whole family can relax. Walk around. Meet people. See things,
Or you can cram your whole family in an aluminum tube for hours risk infection, dehydrate them, feet swell,
Then there are boats. Um. Some people must like them.
