Is Ford headed for financial trouble?

Might have to buy some ford stock. They're kinda screwing us but definitely have the average American figured out.

RyanGreener (Forum Supporter) said:

Interesting way the direction of the thread has been going. While most people don't need crossovers, SUVs, or pickups, I can also admit that a lot of the cars we drive aren't exactly "needed" either. Plenty of people drive sports cars that remain garage queens, don't get autocrossed or tracked, or simply just drive on highways following the speed limits. That would basically mean that most of us sports/sporty car drivers would be better off with a Mitsubishi Mirage/Chevy Spark.

This is why I have a Mazda2 and a utility trailer if I need to haul stuff.

johndej said:

Might have to buy some ford stock. They're kinda screwing us but definitely have the average American figured out.

I'm curious how Ford is screwing us?

Adrian_Thompson (Forum Supporter) said:

frenchyd said:

        On the other hand Those Semi's intimidate even the 3/4 ton jockeys with lift kits.  You poor car people must be terrified. 

The thing is, for me at least, I have far more confidence in your average semi driver than I do your average half ton pick up driver.  I'm not saying there aren't bad semi drivers, or semi drivers who drive drunk, tired, high, pissed off etc.  But most semi drivers understand exactly what they are driving and have more respect for it's abilities, and more importantly what it can't do, like stop on a dime.  I fear the average half ton pick up driver think's they are in something akin to the Corola they took their test in and drive accordingly, way too close to see or react to the smaller car ahead. 

 

frenchyd said:

However working pickups have been in use since the 1920's.   They outlast cars by a decade or more.

Now this interestes me.  Do you have any figures to support this?  I looked and IHS classes cars and trucks the same, with the current average age now up to basically 12 years.  As a non sientific personal observation, I don't think the average age for trucks is higher than for cars.  I think you also see far more heavily rusted out trucks still on the road, probably due to body on frame vs unibody, but still I'm not seeing all these older trucks vs cars. 

Having been a semi driver for about the length most truck drivers do it professionally.( 9 months )Your mistaken the  
  Semi's are dangerous. Their drivers are worse. Up to 80,000 pounds ( if they aren't overloaded) 
 Yes including me.  I hauled Cheese from. Minnesota to San Francisco  non stop.*   Back in those days there were only  two weigh stations open and both had easy routes around them.  I'd head out with my 2 logbooks in a cab over 6-71 Jimmy. A worn out piece of 8 year old  Junk. Worn slack adjusters that required me to crawl underneath with the thumper and wack em to keep the pedal off the floor . Loose 5th wheel and well I just hated it. It would barely  climb  Donner pass in Granny. 
 I typically carried 80,000 pounds of cheese (load) plus the weight of the truck and trailer.. So if you got in Front of me you were risking a lot.    It took me 22 to 26 hours non stop.  So yes I was tired. ( but nothing other than caffeine in my system) * after the cheese I'd Gypsy a load to LA or Dan Diego and then head to Holtville  for a load of lettuce back to the twin cities.   4 days and if I was lucky I had 10 maybe 12 hours of sleep    
         Overloaded, out of book, worn sloppy gear, and exhausted   Yet I was sober and drug free which probably made me better than 25%! Of truckers on the road. 

As far as the average  1/2 t truck owner. I suspect most are middle age or older.   That's a lot of money for kids out of high school. Hopefully most are past their foolish days.  But I honestly don't know. 
  I don't see as many pickups on the road as in the past in relation to SUV's which  seems to be at least 50% of the vehicles on the road.  Well maybe some of those are minivans  after all they are the same profile.  I can't tell if they are small SUV's or minivans.  I'm sure they are on the same platform. 
      Durability of a pickup and resale value of used is what attracted me back in the 1990's 

z31maniac said:

johndej said:

Might have to buy some ford stock. They're kinda screwing us but definitely have the average American figured out.

I'm curious how Ford is screwing us?

 

Probably a reference to a lack of affordable sporty cars (Focus, Fiesta)

Got my question answered on page one. The rest of the discusion has been interesting. Glas to see it stay civil as economic stuff skirts close to political.

In reply to NOHOME :

That is the reason GRM is so good. Civil discourse even when there is disagreement. 
  Not just this subject but many subjects have skirted the line without becoming disagreeable or hostile 

Adrian_Thompson (Forum Supporter) said:

 

frenchyd said:

However working pickups have been in use since the 1920's.   They outlast cars by a decade or more.

Now this interestes me.  Do you have any figures to support this?  I looked and IHS classes cars and trucks the same, with the current average age now up to basically 12 years.  As a non sientific personal observation, I don't think the average age for trucks is higher than for cars.  I think you also see far more heavily rusted out trucks still on the road, probably due to body on frame vs unibody, but still I'm not seeing all these older trucks vs cars. 

I think that whole thing came out of the time when many cars had timing belts that shortened the lifespan of the average car in the hands of the average owner. Few trucks had timing belts and there was a time when trucks didn't rust as badly as they did in the '70s and '80s or it seems starting again with the mid-late 2000s models. And now we're getting into displacement on demand (and its equivalents) on trucks making people throw in the towel.

In reply to GCrites80s :

I was having this discussion with someone the other day. In my opinion the pursuit of economy and reduced emissions is lowering reliablility (cars and trucks). Id take an 06 Chevy 1500 over a 2020 Chevy 1500 if it was a keeper and not just a cowboy cadillac to trade in every 4 years.

Opti said:

In reply to GCrites80s :

I was having this discussion with someone the other day. In my opinion the pursuit of economy and reduced emissions is lowering reliablility (cars and trucks). Id take an 06 Chevy 1500 over a 2020 Chevy 1500 if it was a keeper and not just a cowboy cadillac to trade in every 4 years.

Average life of vehicles on the road going up consistantly since records began, coincidently about the same time as emissions and fuel economy standards started being phased in.  So unfortunatly facts don't back up your theory.

GCrites80s said:

Adrian_Thompson (Forum Supporter) said:

 

frenchyd said:

However working pickups have been in use since the 1920's.   They outlast cars by a decade or more.

Now this interestes me.  Do you have any figures to support this?  I looked and IHS classes cars and trucks the same, with the current average age now up to basically 12 years.  As a non sientific personal observation, I don't think the average age for trucks is higher than for cars.  I think you also see far more heavily rusted out trucks still on the road, probably due to body on frame vs unibody, but still I'm not seeing all these older trucks vs cars. 

I think that whole thing came out of the time when many cars had timing belts that shortened the lifespan of the average car in the hands of the average owner. Few trucks had timing belts and there was a time when trucks didn't rust as badly as they did in the '70s and '80s or it seems starting again with the mid-late 2000s models. And now we're getting into displacement on demand (and its equivalents) on trucks making people throw in the towel.

Serious point here.  I wonder how much of your observation comes down to what vehicles are popular in your area.  I've propsed the following before talking about countries, but I wonder if theirs a regional effect as well.

We all know that here in the US for many many decades here we've seen British cars as unreliable with E36 M3ty electronics.  We also know that over here we love to complain about unreliable overly complicated German cars, or E36 M3ty Italian cars or or or.  At the same time Europe has made jokes about unreliable and crude American cars.  All cars 'appear' to work best in their own regions.  Now sure some of this may be local pride bias, but I think it's because your average British garage/mechanich was used to seeing British cars and knew exatly what was needed to keep them running.  Most Brits know that a lot of poor running blamed on Lucas Prince of darkess are really partially cloged cleanable fuel filters.  Most US mechanics could set the timing, rebuild a Holly carb and swap out a turbo hydromatic blindfold and one handed during their tea brake while discussing last nights game, but the same job would send the average Europan mechanic running for the factory workshop manual.  People know and learn what they see every day.  A Whitworth thread will freak out a rural American mechanic, while a German will wondering why Americans hate Metric and curse as he has to wait two weeks for 1/4-20 tap.

I wonder if your truck observation, and corresponding timing belt V Chain comment is largly due to where you grew up?  I bet the average person who grew up in SoCal in the 80's would probably think that cars are more reliable than trucks, as that's what was popular and had the local support.

Not stating any of this as fact, just a hypothosis.

In reply to Adrian_Thompson (Forum Supporter) :

I didnt mean since they were implemented (as in the 70s and 80s) I was referring to the recent push in the last decade or two. Hence my use of a 2006 as an example. 

Yes average age is up for cars, about 2.5 years over the last two decades, at the same time average miles driven per year peaked in 04 dropped after that and has been pretty flat until the pandemic, and average price of a new and used vehicle has been rising at the same time. If the average age is 12.1 years that means the average car running around is a 2009 or 2010, which is right around when I think the peak of reliability was. In 10 or 12 years we might have more accurate trends for reliability of new cars.

A couple examples Chevy introduced AFM in 2007 in their trucks. We used to see failures at 80-150K miles, with the osccasional low mileage one. Since they introduced the LT series AFM failures are happening more often and sooner, friends at the dealer are saying they routinely see massive valvetrain failure at under 2K miles. Prior to AFM the LS engines where pretty dang reliable.

GMs ecotecs where pretty much reliable as gravity when they first came out, then they started sticking them in equinoxs and terrains with low tension rings and they would eat all their oil and die an early death.

The Chrylser 4.0, legendary for it reliability was replaced with the 3.6 pentastar which has common head, and valvetrain failures.

Ford still cant build a cam phaser but now the engines they are bolted to are way more complex. (4.5/5.4 vs 3.5). While we are on the ecoboost subject the addition of a bunch of coolant and oil lines to feed a turbo are problematic leak points that generally arent cheap to fix.

Then you have the transmissions. Wait until one of the new 8/9/10 speeds fail, and rebuilds are very expensive, maybe they are more reliable and will last longer, but early reports are showing they may not. Do you think Nissans move to CVTs increased their reliability?

Oil consumption is a much more common problem on regular appliance mobiles than it was 10 or 15 years ago.

Im not saying new cars are bad, not at all, I just think they arent as reliable as they where about a decade ago, no question they are better in pretty much every measurable way, but some of these repairs and their frequency make me worry about their long term viability.

In reply to Opti :

In my opinion the high point for GM reliability  was from about 1990- 2005   Ford's reliability happened a little later about 2008 - 2019 and I'll let you know if it ever happens to Chrysler. 
      IMHO 

 I believe the high point for Japanese product is past but from about the 1980's through 2010  reliability was their strength. Now they will slowly follow the fate of British manufacturing. Korean mfg is still on an upward swing. 
 Germany invested deeply in Formula 1 at the cost of their reliability.  

Adrian_Thompson (Forum Supporter) said:

GCrites80s said:

Adrian_Thompson (Forum Supporter) said:

 

frenchyd said:

However working pickups have been in use since the 1920's.   They outlast cars by a decade or more.

Now this interestes me.  Do you have any figures to support this?  I looked and IHS classes cars and trucks the same, with the current average age now up to basically 12 years.  As a non sientific personal observation, I don't think the average age for trucks is higher than for cars.  I think you also see far more heavily rusted out trucks still on the road, probably due to body on frame vs unibody, but still I'm not seeing all these older trucks vs cars. 

I think that whole thing came out of the time when many cars had timing belts that shortened the lifespan of the average car in the hands of the average owner. Few trucks had timing belts and there was a time when trucks didn't rust as badly as they did in the '70s and '80s or it seems starting again with the mid-late 2000s models. And now we're getting into displacement on demand (and its equivalents) on trucks making people throw in the towel.

Serious point here.  I wonder how much of your observation comes down to what vehicles are popular in your area.  I've propsed the following before talking about countries, but I wonder if theirs a regional effect as well.

We all know that here in the US for many many decades here we've seen British cars as unreliable with E36 M3ty electronics.  We also know that over here we love to complain about unreliable overly complicated German cars, or E36 M3ty Italian cars or or or.  At the same time Europe has made jokes about unreliable and crude American cars.  All cars 'appear' to work best in their own regions.  Now sure some of this may be local pride bias, but I think it's because your average British garage/mechanich was used to seeing British cars and knew exatly what was needed to keep them running.  Most Brits know that a lot of poor running blamed on Lucas Prince of darkess are really partially cloged cleanable fuel filters.  Most US mechanics could set the timing, rebuild a Holly carb and swap out a turbo hydromatic blindfold and one handed during their tea brake while discussing last nights game, but the same job would send the average Europan mechanic running for the factory workshop manual.  People know and learn what they see every day.  A Whitworth thread will freak out a rural American mechanic, while a German will wondering why Americans hate Metric and curse as he has to wait two weeks for 1/4-20 tap.

I wonder if your truck observation, and corresponding timing belt V Chain comment is largly due to where you grew up?  I bet the average person who grew up in SoCal in the 80's would probably think that cars are more reliable than trucks, as that's what was popular and had the local support.

Not stating any of this as fact, just a hypothosis.

Brilliantly said. I don't find any point to dispute your conclusion. 

In reply to Opti :

What do you mean by addition of coolant and oil lines to the ecoboost engine? Have they added more lines after the ecoboost was released? 

Very interesting thought Adrian. I'm fascinated by how culture impacts belief. 
 

Are you from the UK? Do you think British cars are solid?
Would aGerman say VWs are reliable/low maintenance?

I would be far more likely to consider Jaguar ownership if I lived in the UK. I realize that some of the older models really aren't that bad here if you are a decent wrench but let's say a non-car-savvy SO wants to daily a newer one and you don't want to always be berkeleying with it.

In reply to yupididit :

I just mean compared to an NA motor, they have coolant and oil lines to the turbos, and the coolant fittings like to leak. They are not fun or cheap to replace.

In reply to CyberEric :

Yup, Ex Pat Brit, but I've been here for coming up 28 years and I'm a Citizen.  I've spent more than half my life here, and the vast majority of my adult life, so I've been gone and disconnected for a long time.  I'm not claiming that British cars are paragons of reliability, but I am saying they are better than their reputation here has you believe.  Lot's of cars like MG's, Rovers, Jaaaaags, Land Rovers that people laugh at for their reliability here were just normal every day cars back there.  They just ran, people put oil and water in them and had them serviced and they just kept running.  According to your average American a 70's or 80's Jag is impossible to keep running without tossing in a small block chubby anchor.  While in the UK there are tens of thousands of them just being used as daily cars over there.  You used to see 70’s and 80’s jags in the 80’s and 90’s like you’d see old Cadillac’s or Lincolns here.  Cars on their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, owners just being used as DD’s.  I think that comes down to the fact they were relatively more common over there, so every corner garage knew the little tricks and foibles to keep them running without issue.  They were rare enough, and different enough, that those same nonissue in the UK because ‘Sorry Guv, this English E36 M3 is crap and can’t be fixed.  Best I can do is throw a V8 at it for chump change and pocket lint.  Buy a real car next time’.  Now, some things like the LR Freelander I do admit they are crap and seen as much over there are well.  It’s rare to see a running one there or here these days.  But a lot of criticism to early 00's Land Rovers was down to the German content and let’s not forget their V8's were developed with Ford and basically the same engine.  So no, I'm not saying British cars should be pushing Lexus off the top of the JD power charts, but I'm saying the lack of familiarity, training, and perhaps reluctance to learn and invest in a relatively rare (in this country) car gave them an unfair reputation.  The same being true for some American cars over in both the UK and mainland Europe.

GCrites80s said:

I would be far more likely to consider Jaguar ownership if I lived in the UK. I realize that some of the older models really aren't that bad here if you are a decent wrench but let's say a non-car-savvy SO wants to daily a newer one and you don't want to always be berkeleying with it.

Look at the geography of the UK. Tight, narrow, winding roads.  Compared to Most of America's straight wide flat roads. 
   Then look at the size of England compared to America.  I'm a thousand and more miles to the coast and 3000 from coast to coast.  Here the average owner puts 12,000+ miles a year. compared to England where the coast is a few hundred away. And 3-4000 is more typical. 
  In England there are rail lines to most places and the price of the ticket is less than the cost of gas.  Not to mention parking and traffic. 
     

In reply to frenchyd :

I agree that the US does more miles than the UK.  US Average is now up to 14k, UK average has dropped from near 10K at the turn of the century down to about 7K per year now.  But I would argue that the average UK miles are harder than US Miles.  US commutes tend to be longer and straighter, not only giving time for the engine to get properly warmed up, compared to the average UK commute of a few miles meaning you get there on a still not fully warmed engine.  That's not good for longevity. Also the UK does far more stop start and corners, also adding to more wear and tear on brakes, suspension and other systems.  I don't think the extra miles in the US are a disadvantage.

In reply to z31maniac :

I could barely fit my son and our one dog in the back seat of my Golf R, let alone 3 dogs and camping gear for a weekend.  My son and I fill the entire cargo area of the Golf when we go skiing for 2 days. 

So while I'm not in the trades, don't own a boat or camper, or a ranch or farm I definitely need a larger vehicle than a compact hatchback.  The Golf is great when it's just me, or just me and my son driving around town.  For carrying the family, or people and dog, or more than 2 people and stuff for a 2 day ski trip it's just not big enough.

In reply to docwyte :

Four humans, two dogs, skis and gear for a three day weekend.

Adrian_Thompson (Forum Supporter) said:

Four humans, two dogs, skis and gear for a three day weekend.

And some serious negative camber in the rear! 

Seriously, though, I don't know how you guys do it. I know you do, but I don't know how. We do long weekends with 4 humans and 2 dogs, too. In an Expedition. I don't think I'd want to attempt it in anything smaller.

In reply to Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) :

Seriously, probably because having growing up the UK where an Escort or Golf was seen as a family car not a young persons first car.  Just used to packing tight and getting there ASAP.  
 

P.S. no excessive-Ve camber, just a strange effect of that pic.  I am considering Air suspension due to the loads I haul.