https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35104768/massachusetts-ban-new-gas-cars-2035/
Do you think this will actually happen?
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35104768/massachusetts-ban-new-gas-cars-2035/
Do you think this will actually happen?
In reply to Grtechguy :
Time will tell. Since it's only New cars do you care?
They aren't the only ones saying they will do this. California has a similar plan. Will it happen? Probably, but probably not by 2035. This kind of thing is mostly symbolic, but the worldwide trend is away from ICE vehicles, so they'll get there eventually, but not in 15 years.
I predict it will happen, and I predict it will happen pretty much everywhere whether there is a law or not. Exceptions for specialized vehicles.
My concern is how this will affect my trade in of my used ICE in the future. Will everyone be like "sorry, we aren't accepting those" and you're stuck with an aging appliance that has no value? (And potentially a really expensive fuel source...)
In reply to Vajingo :
Similar to tube-type TV's. You can't even give one away.
In reply to Vajingo :
If this happens I would expect the opposite effect, as long as there are gas stations.
Anyone living in an area with only on-street parking will be limited to used ICE vehicles or relying on public charging stations.
Vajingo said:My concern is how this will affect my trade in of my used ICE in the future. Will everyone be like "sorry, we aren't accepting those" and you're stuck with an aging appliance that has no value? (And potentially a really expensive fuel source...)
Yeah, that's a valid concern, but it always happens when a major technological change occurs. It's one of the costs of progress. Besides, I suspect it'll be a slow, gradual process. It'll be a LONG time before there are no ICE cars on the roads. And even then, I think those of us with our "antiques" will still be able to drive them on track, to shows, etc. But you're right, fuel will become very expensive and hard to find.
As noted, this will not be an on / off switch kind of thing, which makes such declarations kind of stupid. It's a bit like some governor saying in 1915 that sale of horses for transportation will not be allowed in the state by 1935.
For trade in value. Probably a good reason to carefully consider ICE engine transportation buys in the next 20 years. Some, specifically cars more optimized for commuting etc, might have very poor resale value in the coming years if / when electric car prices drop (and practicality increases).
(Welcome to the "our governor makes stupid declarations" club)
I doubt it will happen. However, if their YOY market share increase (shown in link below) continues, it would reach 100% well before 2035
https://evadoption.com/ev-market-share/ev-market-share-state/
No Time said:In reply to Vajingo :
If this happens I would expect the opposite effect, as long as there are gas stations.
Anyone living in an area with only on-street parking will be limited to used ICE vehicles or relying on public charging stations.
Depends on where. Tight urban areas? The city will put in meters and make a profit to offset loss of revenue for street maintenance. Suburban neighborhoods? Some may put in meters. While others will let home owners put their own charging stations in.
Off street parking? The charger will be in the garage, car port, or driveway. Then they will raise property taxes to pay for the roads.
In reply to ProDarwin :
Personally I've bought my last ICE vehicle. When ( if ) these wear out, I'll buy electric. I'm not stupid. I don't want to be the last holdout owning one. Well except for the toys I've got and will build.
I recently skimmed a TRB (Transportation Research Board) report on the impacts on greenhouse gas emissions from replacement of ICE powered cars & light trucks with ZEVs (their term for full electric & hydrogen powered vehicles) over the next 20 or so years and their basic conclusion was that it would be more effective over that time period to increase fuel economy of ICE powered vehicles by something like 5% to 10%. The study indicated that it currently takes about 25 years to replace the majority of these vehicles in the US and we are currently buying about 3% of new vehicles as ZEVs annually. So with no significant increase in the percentage of new ZEVs purchased in about 20-25 years 3% of this fleet would be ZEVs. Even if ZEV prices were comparable to ICE vehicles they would probably still be no more than 50% of this fleet at that same point in time. So unless ZEVs get really cheap & convenient very quickly, it will be a long time before ICEs disappear. This doesn't even address necessary infrastructure advances and growth required to support refueling a significant increase in the volume of ZEVs.
bobzilla said:In reply to Vajingo :
Similar to tube-type TV's. You can't even give one away.
That is because flatscreens are objectively better, and more useful for the things people do with TVs nowadays. (Anybody make an HDMI to Antenna Screw adaptor?)
Given peoples' attachment to cars for their subjective qualities, unlike televisions (people don't write songs about their old Zenith)... I see it making the used market go up.
frenchyd said:Personally I've bought my last ICE vehicle. When ( if ) these wear out, I'll buy electric. I'm not stupid. I don't want to be the last holdout owning one. Well except for the toys I've got and will build.
Had an EV for three years, but I'm still waiting for a viable minivan EV before we buy another for the family. Even if/when we fully convert to EVs for our daily drivers I don't see any reason not to own another ICE vehicle for recreational purposes.
In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :
There is a whole sense that the OP doesn't want the change to EV's. That somehow we're better staying in the past with ICE's. Comfort in the familiar.
I understand that. There are still horses out there. Steam or ICE's didn't eliminate them.
There will be ICE's long into the future. But just about as common as horses.
My newest car is 14yo this year.
Hate me if you want but the only RUSH song I like is Red Barchetta. I will be the guy just making the one lane bridge but my cars will be german.
I would get an EV to commute to work, but you can put me in an EV but you will never take the ICE from my blood.
Ending new sales in 2035 for a full phase out for common use by 2050 (which is a common decarbonization goal year, though way late for 1.5-2C temp rise). Will be interesting how common this is in the more progressive states and how slow the laggards go, if at all.
Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) said:Vajingo said:My concern is how this will affect my trade in of my used ICE in the future. Will everyone be like "sorry, we aren't accepting those" and you're stuck with an aging appliance that has no value? (And potentially a really expensive fuel source...)
Yeah, that's a valid concern, but it always happens when a major technological change occurs. It's one of the costs of progress. Besides, I suspect it'll be a slow, gradual process. It'll be a LONG time before there are no ICE cars on the roads. And even then, I think those of us with our "antiques" will still be able to drive them on track, to shows, etc. But you're right, fuel will become very expensive and hard to find.
Expensive gas is one concern, I wonder about the viability of keeping hobby cars running when mechanics and auto parts stores start to disappear or start charging Ferrari rates to stay in business. I do some of my own wrenching, but I don't have a lift and still like to farm out some work. Personally, my DD is fairly new and I can see getting an EV for myself in 10 years or so. I won't mind one bit to have lower maintenance on the commute mobile. With the way Europe and other regions of the world are pushing it, the change is inevitable as automakers won't find it cost effective to make both.
sanman said:Expensive gas is one concern, ...
There is potential for gas to get very cheap (excluding taxes of course). Oil based products are going to be around of a LONG time. In order to get all those other products, you get a LOT of gasoline during distillation. I don't know enough about petroleum processing to know if they can adjust these percentages, but there are not a lot of viable (or even reasonably cheap) options to plastics and lubricants that I know of. I think plastics are created from one of the smaller fractions shown below.
In reply to secretariata (Forum Supporter) :
I’m intrigued. Can you provide a link to that study?
I can't find any leaded gasoline.
MA can not even get the current building code updated and it is just basically copying the current version of the IBC. This will never happen.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:bobzilla said:In reply to Vajingo :
Similar to tube-type TV's. You can't even give one away.
Given peoples' attachment to cars for their subjective qualities, unlike televisions (people don't write songs about their old Zenith)... I see it making the used market go up.
Well she got her daddy's TV
And she cruised through the hamburger stand now
Seems she forgot all about the library
Like she told her old man now
And with the TV blasting
Goes cruising just as fast as she can now
And she'll have fun fun fun
'Til her daddy takes the Zenith away
aircooled said:There is potential for gas to get very cheap (excluding taxes of course). Oil based products are going to be around of a LONG time. In order to get all those other products, you get a LOT of gasoline during distillation.
You can. "Catalytic cracking" is a process that converts long hydrocarbon chains to shorter ones, effectively turning stuff like fuel oil and asphalt into diesel into gasoline. Refineries do this becasue there's more demand for gasoline -- if that changes they can tweak the process ot make more of the other types of petroleum products.
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