Next-gen Tesla Roadster announced: High-end supercar for low-end supercar money

Chris_V said:

And people said the same things about the Model S which is now commonplace and generating competition amongst other manufacturers. It might be late in coming, but it'll definitely happen. Much like Elon launching and landing a rocket.

Oh, I'm very hopeful. Any progress is good. But a concept car is a concept car. It doesn't exist yet - not in any road going, legal, manufacturable or purchasable variant.

The truth is that Tesla/Elon are the masters of hype. This vehicle in proof-of-concept phase. It's great to dream, but quoting figures (esp for range or top speed) is meaningless at this point.

Blaise said:

Oh, I'm very hopeful. Any progress is good. But a concept car is a concept car. It doesn't exist yet - not in any road going, legal, manufacturable or purchasable variant.

Check the video on the previous page. That's road going, it was manufactured (probably by hand, like many supercars), and it could be street legal if registered as a homebuilt. Elon might even sell it to you for enough money.

GameboyRMH said:

This thing is going to be the darling of supercar track days, with near-zero powertrain maintenance and feeding costs, and a relatively low up-front cost. Hopefully that industry won't shut down before the release date, so that I might get to drive one!

you know the Model S won't even make one lap, right? I have my doubts. Historically, Tesla have played fast and loose with margins of safety on components to make wild performance. I doubt this has changed,

tuna55 said:

you know the Model S won't even make one lap, right? I have my doubts. Historically, Tesla have played fast and loose with margins of safety on components to make wild performance. I doubt this has changed,

It'll make more than one lap of most tracks, maybe two. But I'm sure the new Roadster won't have the same problem, it's a supercar, that would be silly. It must have gearboxes to reach the specified top speed, that will eliminate the high-RPM motor heat generation problem that cripples Model S's on track.

Edit: Maybe it doesn't even have gearboxes and still works? Look at the NIO EP9. Single-speed, tops out over 300kph, 0-100 in 2.7sec, holds Nurburgring production record.

Blaise said:

Chris_V said:

And people said the same things about the Model S which is now commonplace and generating competition amongst other manufacturers. It might be late in coming, but it'll definitely happen. Much like Elon launching and landing a rocket.

Oh, I'm very hopeful. Any progress is good. But a concept car is a concept car. It doesn't exist yet - not in any road going, legal, manufacturable or purchasable variant.

The truth is that Tesla/Elon are the masters of hype. This vehicle in proof-of-concept phase. It's great to dream, but quoting figures (esp for range or top speed) is meaningless at this point.

Why is quoting figures meaningless? They've proven it. Here is a 0-60 video: 

mtn said:meaningless?

Yes. Because if you've ever been involved in any sort of R&D program, proofs of concept will share either no or nearly no components with the vehicle you deliver years down the road.

There's a million moving parts here, and discussing this vehicle's specs  today is nothing but clickbait. At some point, the chassis will undergo stress testing, safety certification, manfacturability issues, cost constraints, the battery is very likely in research phase only, the motors are one-offs, etc etc.

There's a long long long long long way to go before they can release something like this. So far 200 model 3s have been made, which was promised to be in full-scale production by now.

I know folks who work at Elon companies. They are incredibly aggressive and promise the world. Obviously it's good for everyone if they succeed, but remember that this car is nowhere near ready for the world.

GameboyRMH said:

maschinenbau said:

"Roadster"

 

It has a removable roof section, like an Elise/Exige.

Still not a roadster. More like a Targa top, like a Supra. I definitely wouldn't call a Targa Supra a roadster.

Blaise said:

mtn said:meaningless?

Yes. Because if you've ever been involved in any sort of R&D program, proofs of concept will share either no or nearly no components with the vehicle you deliver years down the road.

There's a million moving parts here, and discussing this vehicle's specs  today is nothing but clickbait. At some point, the chassis will undergo stress testing, safety certification, manfacturability issues, cost constraints, the battery is very likely in research phase only, the motors are one-offs, etc etc.

There's a long long long long long way to go before they can release something like this. So far 200 model 3s have been made, which was promised to be in full-scale production by now.

I know folks who work at Elon companies. They are incredibly aggressive and promise the world. Obviously it's good for everyone if they succeed, but remember that this car is nowhere near ready for the world.

That's how long-term companies behave. Likely Tesla will skip a bunch of steps and release something half baked which is spectacular but also tremendously flawed. I agree that the car isn't ready for the world, and I would also argue that it still won't be when they start selling it.

In reply to Blaise :

Nobody is going to argue Musk over-promising and under-delivering on production timelines, nor his aggressiveness leading to buggy initial product releases, but how much has Musk over-promised and under-delivered on performance stats like acceleration, top speed, and range?  Those are (apparently) what he lives and dies by. 

If the proof of concept successfully proves the concept, then almost regardless of changes made to get it to production, with a few more years more development there is absolutely no reason for the production version shouldn't be easily capable of the same capabilities...That's the whole point of a proof of concept.  If you can't even match your proof of concept in production form, you're doing something wrong.

https://www.caranddriver.com/features/tesla-model-s-p85d-at-lightning-lap-2016-feature

way way less than one lap

The dude drumming along to the steering wheel would have been better if he had picked a better song

Blaise said:

Really? Even GRM?

ITS A CONCEPT CAR. A CONCEPT CAR.

 

IT DOESN'T EXIST. How many concept cars have had insane claims during your lifetime? How many came to fruition? It's driving me nuts how everybody falls for the Tesla hype. If GM announced a 300mph corvette today  with 100mpg and 100k pricetag 'coming in 2020' how many people would call BS?

Remember when the ND miata was supposed to be 1800lb?

What Tesla concept car has been different than the production car? I think that's part of the reason for the hype. Tesla shows a crazy, off the wall car, than builds it. 

What did Mazda say the ND was gonna weigh again?

1800lb. No, 2000lb. No, 2100lb. No, sub 1000kg. No... ugh, 2332. Are we gonna say Mazda doesn't know what they're doing bc they kept creeping?

There's a million reasons why Tesla may not hit the numbers they're discussing. We are talking about battery tech that isn't ready. Safety standards which aren't yet in place (which may also impact battery life). Etc etc. I'm excited to see what happens WHEN it happens.

GameboyRMH said:

T.J. said:

Those specs are crazy. I just wish all of us little people didn't have to subsidize the rich folks who can afford to buy these things. I wish Elon Musk would go on a one-way trip to Mars.

Elon Musk didn't put an EV subsidy in place without a price cap...also consider that fossil fuel companies get generous subsidies, so you're also helping to pay for the fuel in private jets and megayachts.

Paying for the fuel is not the same thing as helping to pay for the car.  I'll just say I am not a fan of that man and leave it at that.

If they want to appeal to the grassroots mentality, stuff the guts into a model 3, sell it at  a third of the price. It would be the hellcat of EVs. 

Blaise said:

What did Mazda say the ND was gonna weigh again?

Hello apples...Meet oranges.

Hello apples...Meet oranges.

How so? Seems fair to me.  

Paying for the fuel is not the same thing as helping to pay for the car. 

Talk about a Pandora's Box, there probably aren't enough terabytes left on GRM servers to thoroughly discuss how subsidized the rich and especially the oil rich are.  

It might be fun, but i also think it's a little pointless trying to judge Elon Musk by the rules of a game he isn't playing. He has stated his purposes for starting Tesla and by those measures he is succeeding in spades despite all the run of the mill business metrics that Tesla is ostensibly failing by.

lnlogauge said:What Tesla concept car has been different than the production car?

I guess we need to define 'different.' We can all agree that just because the look of a car doesn't vary significantly doesn't mean it's not entirely different underneath or even externally. Let's stick to the specs.

https://www.autoblog.com/2009/03/26/tesla-model-s-50-000-ev-sedan-seats-seven-300-mile-range-0-6/

We have just listened to the panjandrum Elon Musk and the car's designer speak about the new Tesla S sedan, and these are the things to know about the first mass-produced highway-capable electric car: production will ramp up to 20,000 units annually by the end of the first year of production; after the $7,500 tax break, the Model S will start at just under $50,000 – $49,900 to be exact; and 440-volt charging will be available. That base price is for the 160-mile range pack; a 230-mile range pack and a 300-mile range pack will also be available.

So how did they do?

20,000 units by end of first year - Yep, got it
Range - They Claimed 160/230/300, they actually delivered 139/208/265 - pretty close but yes that's a miss
Price - Yes they hit it
Standard model with sub 6 second 0-60? Nope, they missed it. 6.5.
Sport model in 'well under 5 seconds?" Nope, they got 5.4 seconds.

Remember - Tesla's PR team is TOP NOTCH. Don't be surprised if they miss the targets.

Vigo said:

Hello apples...Meet oranges.

How so? Seems fair to me.  

First, judging one entity by another unrelated entity's history rather than its own is pretty much the definition of an apples-to-oranges comparison.  Second, I'm not sure Mazda ever officially claimed those lower numbers. Third, halo car development is considerably less constrained than other car development.

Blaise said:

We have just listened to the panjandrum Elon Musk and the car's designer speak about the new Tesla S sedan, and these are the things to know about the first mass-produced highway-capable electric car: production will ramp up to 20,000 units annually by the end of the first year of production; after the $7,500 tax break, the Model S will start at just under $50,000 – $49,900 to be exact; and 440-volt charging will be available. That base price is for the 160-mile range pack; a 230-mile range pack and a 300-mile range pack will also be available.

So how did they do?

20,000 units by end of first year - Yep, got it
Range - They Claimed 160/230/300, they actually delivered 139/208/265 - pretty close but yes that's a miss
Price - Yes they hit it
Standard model with sub 6 second 0-60? Nope, they missed it. 6.5.
Sport model in 'well under 5 seconds?" Nope, they got 5.4 seconds.

What I see is that even in their first big PR 'rodeo' they weren't all that far off.  Yes there was the original Roadster, but that ina and of itself was pretty much just a proof-of-concept.  I think a much better judge will be how close the Model 3 is to its previously stated performance specs, now that they've accumulated more knowledge and experience in translating development potential into production realization.  If that's reasonably accurate, I'd see absolutely no reason for the Roaster to be otherwise either.  

The real key for Tesla's "top notch" PR team has generally been that the engineering target specs are so outlandishly fantastic, that even if they miss it by a bit, the specs still end up shockingly good to the point where it simply doesn't matter.  So let's say that they "miss" and end up with 'only' a 2.0 0-60, 9.0 1/4 mile, 235mph top speed, and 550 mile range for the advertised $250k.  Who would actually care that they 'didn't hit their targets', other than people whose lives revolve around looking for excuses to complain, since it would still be pretty mind-blowing on all accounts.

I am simply thrilled to see battery range potentially teaching 600 miles

Driven5 said:

The real key for Tesla's "top notch" PR team is that the engineering target specs are so outlandishly fantastic, that even if they miss it by a bit, the specs still end up shockingly good to the point where it simply doesn't matter.  So let's say that they "miss" and end up with 'only' a 2.0 0-60, 9.0 1/4 mile, 235mph top speed, and 550 mile range for the advertised $250k.  Who would actually care that they 'didn't hit their targets', other than people whose lives revolve around looking for excuses to complain, since it would still be pretty mind-blowing on all accounts.

Very interesting point. I think the 600 mile range is the big kicker for me. I haven't reviewed any journals with battery-specific-energy forecasts in a few years, but hitting that kWh/kg target is the big big challenge here, both for e-supercars and normal e-cars alike.

In reply to Blaise :

My Ioniq gets 620 miles to a $20 tank, I didn't look at the Tesla entirely due to this, but my eyes are open and watching intently

It's not such a big challenge with solid-state lithium batteries. The competition is putting these into their new EVs, I'd expect Tesla is doing the same.

In reply to GameboyRMH :

I think Fiskar is expected to be out with theirs in 2023.

GameboyRMH said:

It's not such a big challenge with solid-state lithium batteries. The competition is putting these into their new EVs, I'd expect Tesla is doing the same.

I'm not an electrical engineer, nor a chemist, or battery expert. How do you figure?  From some googling, I found a solid state battery discussion from a professor  at UF. The challenge for solid-state batteries is listed specifically as COST. Source:

https://ceramics.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/energy-ss-batteries-jones.pdf

I think saying 'it's not a big challenge' is a bit of a reach.

GameboyRMH said:

This thing is going to be the darling of supercar track days, with near-zero powertrain maintenance and feeding costs, and a relatively low up-front cost. Hopefully that industry won't shut down before the release date, so that I might get to drive one!

I wouldn't be so sure. The Model S suffered from over-heating on the track, and after only a few laps the car would go into limp mode. Let's see if they fixed the over-heating issues with this Roadster - if they haven't, it's just a fun street toy.