Shortage of Auto Mechanics over the Next 5 Years

alfadriver wrote: More people may be getting a 4 year degree, but I don't see the results for more engineers. But we've seen a decline in techs for the better part of the last decade.

I remember reading articles as far back as 20 years ago about the "graying of the service industry".

The sad thing is, a lot of it is that it is hard to find younger people who are mechanically competent. The skills don't develop when they play with computers and smartphones in their free time instead of playing with wrenches in the shed. We have a new kid with us who is in his early 20s and Da Boss noted that he had more mechanical aptitude when he was 14 than this kid does, and the kid went to several vocational tech schools...

I see it as an interesting thing. My parents wanted me to go to college, I tended towards going into ME, but things didn't work out due to circumstances. It turns out that I accidentally made a good decision. You aren't going to outsource my career to a developing country with cheap labor working remotely, and every year my skillset gets more valuable as more people retire and don't get replaced.

I used to say that when I went to evening classes, I'd be the only person in the room with hair, that wasn't gray. Not so true anymore, but not because there's young'uns joining the ranks.

chaparral wrote: Normally a shortage involves demand exceeding supply, causing prices to rise. So where are the double-digit-percent pay increases for mechanics and welders?

Wage stagnation.

We just need to keep giving more money to the ultra rich, that will solve everything somehow.

Wheelsmitty, I FEEL Ya I'm 66 as young Mechanics we had to figure out what was wrong and then FIX It,Now the car tells them what is wrong and Damn near fix's itself with the Push of a Button. the other nite they were talking about what to do, the engine ONLY had 240 Thousand Miles on it, when we were Young it would be on the second engine or at least the second Rebuild by then.

GTXVette wrote: Wheelsmitty, I FEEL Ya I'm 66 as young Mechanics we had to figure out what was wrong and then FIX It,Now the car tells them what is wrong and Damn near fix's itself with the Push of a Button.

Ha! If only.

The cars don't tell you what's wrong, they just tell you what problem the controller is seeing (sometimes) and then the trouble tree involves what the harried engineer who wrote the code might think could happen to cause it.

My favorite is the Volvo MAF fault/Hyundai MAP fault. Incorrect MAF(MAP) reading. It's caused by dirty throttle plates or plugged PCV systems, because the PCM fault checking assumes that those items will always be working properly, and if the TPS is open more than a certain amount for a given MAF(MAP) reading, it's a sensor fault and not a gunky engine...

There have been MANY Hyundai/Kia MAP sensors replaced because the throttle body was dirty and the PCM's keep alive memory was reset!

My LEAST favorite is Ford misfire diagnosis. If you reset the KAM (aka "clear codes"), it assumes that whatever operating condition the engine has is normal. Clear codes with a dead miss, the computer assumes that the dead miss is normal. So the guy with the truck (it's always a truck, usually a van) takes it to AutoZone where they helpfully clear the check engine light for him. Then he brings it to us, and we have to find which cylinder is misfiring and the PCM is saying all is well, so it's no help. Pulling plugs on a van is a righteous pain the butt. Also usually why it's misfiring, because the plugs are ancient because it's a righteous pain in the butt to get to them. So which coil do you replace? You should replace all of them, of course, but it's hard to sell that to most people who start out by getting their check engine light cleared at AutoZone.

I really want to get a COP wand. I balk at the price. 'Course, I just spent $150 on new boots that will probably last me six months, a COP wand would pay for itself in shortcutted diagnostic time very quickly...

I hear the same arguments about the trucking industry. Then I heard a radio ad in Boston looking for drivers: home every night, full benefits, must agree to seek a double trailer cert. 80k.

What's the best part of a non scalable job? They're really hard to outsource (ie, don't try to outsource your plumber, barber, or mechanic)

18 years, 10 ASE certifications, and degrees in Automotive Service Technology and Occupational Education later, i still love working on cars. Just getting that out there. I love working on cars even though i've buried myself in more projects than I can finish. It's not impossible to work on cars for a living and still like working on cars for yourself.

As a 32 y/o teacher, I think it's interesting that so few people who enjoy working on cars but don't enjoy doing it for a living don't arrive at a decision to teach it instead. Works for me. Am I making as much as I could in a dealership? No. Do I make as much or more as i could in a typical small independent shop? Definitely. Once i get the 'right' teaching job i'll have summers off, too. Nevermind the satisfaction of helping people all day every day!

Having said that, i definitely agree that the cost of training and the entry pay do not make sense for this industry. Techs have always been underpaid during my time. My level of expertise in other industries would pull 6 figures repeatably. In automotive repair you have to get yourself to a very specific place to pull that off.

I don't think that it's impossible to get a fair shake doing auto repair if you approach it the right way. But I do think it's a young man's game in the sense that you can't transition from another career and expect to be paid a living wage right off the bat. Starting pay is generally low enough that only a young person can afford to be paid it. I think the way I came at it is still workable. I approached it from curiosity (not a desire for money) from early teen years and self-educated a lot on the internet until i had cars. Then, i worked on my own cars. I started working for independent shops which generally will throw anything under the sun at you that they think you might be able to pull off (vs dealerships that for the first 6mos+ will only give you the type of work that will be borderline irrelevant to what you'll actually do as a 'real' tech). I took auto classes through community college and got a 2-yr degree for a very small amount of money. I got ASE Master Certified when i was 21. Made pretty good money during the 'other people my age are still in college' years. Now, at that point i COULD have moved to dealership as a line tech and chased real money. But instead at age 23 i started pursuing qualifications to become a teacher. Being able to bill $40-50/hr for side work sure did make it a lot easier to be 'underemployed' and go back for a teaching degree, though!

I don't regret that choice in the least. Unlike many of you, apparently, i'm engaging my passion for cars at work AND at home, and i'm not tired of it! But I am subjecting myself to just another industry with a pretty low wage ceiling and high entry barriers. It will never stop being a compromise, but it's one that hasn't burned me out on cars, and my evergreen passion for the subject is encouraging budding enthusiasts to continue to learn and engage the automotive world on a daily basis. They're not on my level (THAT would be bargain for the $24k we charge...), but in a basic sense i'm constantly surrounded by people that i share interests with who don't mind me going on about it for 5 hrs at a time.

I think Nealsmo nailed it. Anyone smart enough to do the job is smart enough not to do it.

I would love to be in the automotive industry. The problem is I'm not sure how to do it at my age, and I am already established in a job that I've been in for 20 years. It's an industry I know, but I have no passion for anymore. I wish I could change, but at 43 probably not possible.

I have a close friend that is a few years younger than I and he is a mechanic. He hates it!

Its already a problem locally for me, the ford dealer keeps raising there offer everytime i talk too them. I have no desire to ever go back too dealership/full blown technician work.

Not only did i burn out hard, it took me 8 years after i quit to finally pay off my tools. I hate new cars, im not cut out for it.

Ill stick to fluids and filters, the extra 2 bucks an hour it made me isnt worth it around here.

Getting to $100,000 is not easy in many career paths. I've been in purchasing and sales and it wasn't until recently I bumped over $100,000. Almost 33 years working full-time but it hasn't always been all about the money. Having a life is nice too.

The lack of GOOD line techs is far worse than most people know!

Having been inside the system for 25 years (berkeley me) I have seen the good, the bad, and now the regular train wreck that is the day in and day out operation of most dealers. The long story short as to why the automotive industry cannot and WILL NOT be able to find good techs and trainees is all about money, that is the main reason trainees never stay and good techs get out and never come back. If the manufactures want to improve and retain service tech they need to tell the dealers (independent shops would follow in a few years) to abandon the current pay system (flat rate/ performance pay) and just let people fix cars, flat rate is one of the main reasons for poor service and repeat visits to the shop.

I have worked with many good techs over the years with most of them getting out and doing quiet well for themselves after leaving, the one thing they told me is that all they want to do is fix car's and not have to worry about the next pay cheque.

Paul B

I have nothing to add, just wanted to say this is a really interesting thread.

Agree. The problem doesn't seem super clear to me. Why is pay relative to cost of living falling? What has changed from a few decades ago? Is flat rate the standard setup?

I know my biggest issue is the inconstant pay, even though I made more at a dealer then I do ATM it was feast or famine all the damn time and that makes for insane undue stress, Its why I preferred fleet work and a constant pay any day of the week.

So much of this thread sums up why I'll never work as a truck or car mechanic again.

I might, possibly, be swayed to go back into mobile plant repair or even have a go at industrial fitting. But that's about as close to wrenching for a living as I'll go.

To quote someone else from the forum, "the juice isn't worth the squeeze"

Donebrokeit wrote: If the manufactures want to improve and retain service tech they need to tell the dealers (independent shops would follow in a few years) to abandon the current pay system (flat rate/ performance pay) and just let people fix cars, flat rate is one of the main reasons for poor service and repeat visits to the shop. Paul B

Unfortunately the manufacturers can't tell thee dealers anything. The new car dealer lobby is extremely strong at both state and federal levels. Most states have laws stating only new car dealers can sell new cars, thus cutting off the manufacturers from dealing directly with the public. The manufacturers know the public doesn't make much distinction between what the dealers do and the manufacturers themselves but there's really nothing they can do about it.

The dealers just look at tech burnout and sales staff turnover as the cost of doing business. They usually have an "HR" department the rounds up prospective employees and herds 'em in. They don't really care all that much about the quality of the work going on in their shop. As long as the service writers write service, they're good.

Their business model does not work well for the long run but the money flows in like water for now so who cares about tomorrow.

Streetwiseguy wrote:

DrBoost wrote: Ditch flat rate and things will improve.

Maybe. Flat rate as a payment method for a diagnostician is pretty much impossible. For a line tech, it can, for the right person, be wonderful. The pressure and potential benefits can also turn good techs into hacks. My first real job, another tech and I went on flat rate same day. I made more money, and my comeback rate didn't change. The other guy was fired in six months. From the customer standpoint, flat rate is pretty much the only way to go. Lets say that you bring your vehicle to me for suspension work. I'm big, strong, and skilled. It takes me 2 hours to do what the book says should take 4. However, if the pencil necked geek in the bay next to me gets the job, it may take him 6 hours. Do you want to pay three times as much to have the job done by a hack? Is my wage three times that of the pencil necked geek? if its under warranty, how much does Ford pay? I'm not saying you are wrong, but flat rate is not the evil thing that many people think it is. If its used properly, everybody wins. Used wrong, nobody is happy.

I hear what you're saying, but I've never known flat-rate to be used properly. Maybe it is somewhere. When I was at the dealership, most of our work was warranty work. That shouldn't make a difference, but when the labor paid for warranty work is 60% of what you'd charge a customer, the tech is getting screwed. Why should that 6-hours XX job only pay 4 hours? Is Chrysler going to send a helper here to get it done with me? No? Then why not pay me the full amount. If I (and most techs) get REALLY good at that job and start getting it done in 4.5 hours (still getting screwed for 30 minutes, plus the time to bring the car in, get in on the hoist, go to the parts department, look in the manual for more info, go to the parts counter, get the car off the hoist, clean up) why does Mother Pentastar cut the time further to 4 hours?
I'm getting aggravated just typing that.
I also worked at an independent shop. It was "hourly + commission". In reality, from the customers perspective, it was hourly. They came in, got an estimate of 4 hours for a job. I knew I had 4 hours to do the job. Well let's say there's stripped bolts, or the problem was worse than expected (maybe in that case an electrical issue). At the 2-hour mark I know I'm not going to be done in 2 more hours. We tell the customer we need an additional 2 hours, for a total of 6. They say ok, I get to work and finish it. I get $18/hr X 6 hours, plus 10% of the billable hours. Our labor rate was 95-105 an hour. In the end, I was getting about 30 an hour for the time I was working.
That was great! Unfortunately by that time I was burned out working on cars and hating it so I left, as sooooooo many good techs do.

DrBoost wrote: That and stop touting the benefits of a 4-year degree (in anything) while slamming skilled trade workers.

Streetwiseguy wrote: You've been listening to Mike Rowe again, haven't you?

Why yes, yes I have

alfadriver wrote:

pres589 wrote:

alfadriver wrote: More people may be getting a 4 year degree, but I don't see the results for more engineers.

I've never worked for an automotive company, so grain of salt with this, but I find working on cars myself or spending time around techs in repair shops where I worked sales to be nothing like engineering. I doubt a student considering one would really think about doing the other instead.

My point was that the push toward more 4 year degrees isn't increasing the engineering pool, either.

Why do you suppose that is? From what I know, if you have the head for it, engineering is a good job and there's a need for it (right?). Are people choosing, well, easier degrees to go after or is there something else going on?

There is a massive shortage of industrial vehicle techs right now. We're having a hard time just getting young blood that can operate a grease gun competently.

I just this past week field repaied 3 large hydraulic cyls that other techs said needed to be shop jobs. None of the three seemed all that challenging to me. In the past few years "shop jobs on the road" has become a significant part of my job, but very few should have ever been called out as shop jobs in the first place, IMO. At least when I tell the branch manager that it's a shop job he doesn't question it.

Don't get me started on electric vehicle work. Today's stuff is for the most part way easier than that crap from the seventies and eighties that I cut my teeth on. These newer guys run away screaming from most of those oldies. I never considered myself more than proficient with most of them, but today's new techs think I'm a wizard.......If I am, then the wizard pay rate is not very impressive.

Me, and a few other "wizards" keep wondering when the talent shortage will translate into large pay increases. It has to happen eventually right?

DrBoost wrote:

alfadriver wrote:

pres589 wrote:

alfadriver wrote: More people may be getting a 4 year degree, but I don't see the results for more engineers.

I've never worked for an automotive company, so grain of salt with this, but I find working on cars myself or spending time around techs in repair shops where I worked sales to be nothing like engineering. I doubt a student considering one would really think about doing the other instead.

My point was that the push toward more 4 year degrees isn't increasing the engineering pool, either.

Why do you suppose that is? From what I know, if you have the head for it, engineering is a good job and there's a need for it (right?). Are people choosing, well, easier degrees to go after or is there something else going on?

My guess is that kids are all pushed to go to college after high school and a larger percentage of them do than they did in the past, but the percentage of kids who should be going to college hasn't gone up at the same pace, so you end up with a lot of college students who really have no business being in college other than as a method for them to rack up debt. Those marginal students will not become engineers (or other STEM degrees) without lowering the standards quite a bit. Math is not for everyone despite what high school guidance counselors may tell the kids.

I suspect, but have no evidence to back it up, that the proliferation of silly degrees that are relatively easy to obtain result in less people sticking it out for a difficult (but useful) degree. The overall result, is that our higher education system is producing a lot of STEM graduates, but they are from India and China and other places and they very well may be returning home after graduating.

Happy Andy said.

Don't get me started on electric vehicle work. Today's stuff is for the most part way easier than that crap from the seventies and eighties that I cut my teeth on. These newer guys run away screaming from most of those oldies. I never considered myself more than proficient with most of them, but today's new techs think I'm a wizard.......If I am, then the wizard pay rate is not very impressive.

Me, and a few other "wizards" keep wondering when the talent shortage will translate into large pay increases. It has to happen eventually right?

Like I said, kids say why is it worn out at 240 thou. You don't have to be a Wizard to figure out that one. Lots easier to R&R an engine than to rebuild one and the pay is the same, customer cost is more. so all we learned is becoming a Moot point.I still love building cars but trying to make a living at it is no longer enjoyable.and Like you said the kids just Pass the buck rather than Field repair.

I'm on strike. I could no longer take being in a place where the mentality, is if you want higher pay work smarter. And there are more where you came form.

The fact is the Best get the lowest pay. Because your fixing other peoples mistakes, often other people in the same shop. Problem salving does not pay in cash. Its something you do because its the right thing to do.

The highest payed are the people who have the low problem salving skills. If you don't have to stop working to salve a problem you make lots of money.

I don't know of any place in the industry, that is willing to pay for smart workers. If I go back in it will industrial vehicles. Less to know and much better pay.Down side is sooooooooooooooooo dirty. And parts can take weeks.

The industry needs to take lessons from Walls street and pay retention bonus. The average person only last 10 years in this industry. (That is a 20 year old stat) Still nothing changes.

DrBoost wrote: Why do you suppose that is? From what I know, if you have the head for it, engineering is a good job and there's a need for it (right?). Are people choosing, well, easier degrees to go after or is there something else going on?

The people that were going to graduate from engineering school were going to go to college anyway, whether it was emphasized or not. The increased push for 4 year degrees just leads to people that wouldn't have otherwise gone to college ending up there. I bet more than a small percentage end up not finishing their studies. Sometimes, this emphasis on 4 year college benefits the student and sometimes it probably doesn't. But it ALWAYS benefits the schools and lenders to have higher enrollments.

In reply to GVX19:

If you work mostly on the EV side industrial vehicles aren't terribly dirty. If I ever leave my current employer, it would be to go to one that only works on the EV side of the industry.

Only a tiny percentage of my work is flat rate, and nearly all of my travel time is paid.

Another nice thing about this business is that many of our clients need the equipment repaired ASAP, regardless of cost. I've actually been told by one of my clients that having a certain machine out of service costs 200% more an hour than our labor rate.

When Mom or Dad are in the engineering field and are instructed that they train their H1B replacement, where's the incentive for the youngin's(at the house) to pursue engineering....