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Rons
Rons GRM+ Memberand New Reader
12/25/18 10:30 a.m.

In reply to Knurled. :

Sorry I was coming from my personal situation in the home of the highest fuel prices in North America.

jr02518
jr02518 Reader
12/25/18 10:37 a.m.

I found my self at the brand new Tesla showroom in a local mall, located just down from the Apple store.  The first stage sales rep. did a good job staying on point during her time with my attempts to let her know that I was not going to be a good prospect. I disclosed that I drive over 30,000 miles a year and she wanted me to see the cost savings of driving electric.

The comparison of fuel cost can be determined by your imputed MPG, miles per year and fuel cost.  On the electric side, it gets interesting.  The price per kw. hour, is not going to be the tear one pricing of your monthly bill.  It is going to be the next layer of  pricing that you will be adding to your monthly bill. That you already pay for, on top of the Jacqui or pool, that you might have added to your monthly nut.

I will not even get into the not quite finished regional repair facility. 

Curtis
Curtis GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
12/25/18 10:47 a.m.
ProDarwin said:
Curtis said:

I get the car and its purpose.  I don't get the business model... unobtanium parts, so not only can you not repair them yourself, but dealership parts can take months to get.

Seems like an unsustainable business model.

Not sure if serious.  Have you heard of Apple?

Very serious.  So serious that there is an entire black market for Tesla salvage parts and mulitple YouTube channels where people show you how to dubiously repair your Tesla if you don't want to wait months for a dealer repair.

One of my board members just purchased a Model S one month ago.  It has a bad relay and won't move.  Dealer estimates 3 months to get the part and another month to fix it.

Tesla doesn't sell parts, nor do they have adequate parts supply.  They have enough parts to manufacture cars which is their bread and butter. They lack the capacity to supply adequate repair parts.  Aftermarket might have brake pads and seat covers for them, but good luck getting anything proprietary.  You are basically buying a car that requires dealer service on their schedule.

Curtis
Curtis GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
12/25/18 11:01 a.m.
californiamilleghia said:
Knurled. said:

In reply to BoxheadTim :

Teslas are not a source of pollution, so they are exempt.

Ummmm maybe less pollution......

Building them made lots of pollution, 

Making the batteries even more , getting the litium more , getting rid of the batteries when worn out...,who knows...

And the electric to charge them is not pollution free 

And yes I agree it's still less than a petrol car......

I hope they figure out a way to recycle the batteries and make them have more power to weigh than they have now.....

Agreed... battery manufacturing has to take place in third-world countries where they don't have strict emissions laws, then loaded on to ships that burn gallons-per-mile of unregulated-emissions diesel, and it is not uncommon for a few shipping containers to get lost along the way, dumping lithium into the ocean.

Then add in that 63% of the US  electric production is still made by burning fossil fuels (source) plastic panels use fossil fuels, etc, newer electric cars aren't the energy panacea that the marketing claims.  Still better, but not great.  Spending a crapload of energy to make something that saves energy looks great in a brochure, but marketing has done a good job of convincing people that electric cars save the world.  They will someday, just not today.  I'm glad we're taking steps in that direction and it is all a means to an end, but I just have to point out that we're not there yet.

That is to say; the current (pun intended) state of electric car development is a tiny step in the direction of reducing energy consumption.  We're getting on the right path, but an electric car today is still trumped by getting a used OBD2 Camaro.  The energy burden of manufacturing has already happened.  It is an existing car.  Whatever emissions you puff out in your personal use of an LS1 are less than the energy burden of manufacturing a new Tesla.

 

 

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
12/25/18 12:41 p.m.

In reply to Curtis :

You don’t understand the business model because you think he is trying to sell cars. He’s not. 

He is trying to completely reinvision transportation. 

He envisions the most advanced interconnected privately owned AI system on the planet where owners can have their vehicles transport them autonomously, then have it make money for them all day long. 

Imagine this...

Imagine if you could invest $6000 per year for the privilege of having a chauffeured luxury vehicle take you wherever you want, and be able to earn $15,000 in revenue from it.  All repairs and service are handled with no effort on your part.

Who wouldn’t consider it?

You are picturing a car as a hunk of metal that you have to sweat to take care of that you gotta have to get you from point A to point B. Musk pictures it as a luxury transportation experience that can service itself, network with others, and generate revenue for its owner. 

You are not even on the same planet as Musk.

(BTW, it is also a vehicle that can operate in zero gravity, so when he uses the technology in part for colonizing Mars, you will literally be on a different planet). 

It ain’t a car.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
12/25/18 12:44 p.m.

Musk has single-handedly gotten all of the major auto makers to begin the process of building electric autonomous cars. 

He is changing the world.

It doesn’t matter if he never sells cars.

californiamilleghia
californiamilleghia Reader
12/25/18 3:35 p.m.

In reply to SVreX :

Diesel gate got then building them along with China saying they want most cars EVs , 

Still only a few percent of USA market even with a $7000 or more tax credit.

The cheap $35k Tesla seems to be hard to find    

I hope  the Car Companies keep pushing EVs but I think the EV market is rechargeable hybrids . So you can get home if you run low on electric power....

I love Elon pushing the market . For pure Ecars he is way in front of the others ,  but the others are catching up.....

 

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
12/25/18 6:19 p.m.

In reply to californiamilleghia :

There are a lot of factors that have encouraged automakers to make the shift, but the concept that a car is built ready to adapt to the autonomous market, wired as a data collector, self upgrading AI as it collects data, and fully connected in real time to communicate with other vehicles is almost entirely attributable to Musk. 

Its the way the world will be, and he envisioned it.  He will probably not be the guy to execute it fully, but it won’t matter. He will have moved on to the next grand vision. 

Curtis
Curtis GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
12/25/18 11:26 p.m.
SVreX said:

In reply to Curtis :

You don’t understand the business model because you think he is trying to sell cars. He’s not. 

He is trying to completely reinvision transportation. 

He envisions the most advanced interconnected privately owned AI system on the planet where owners can have their vehicles transport them autonomously, then have it make money for them all day long. 

Imagine this...

Imagine if you could invest $6000 per year for the privilege of having a chauffeured luxury vehicle take you wherever you want, and be able to earn $15,000 in revenue from it.  All repairs and service are handled with no effort on your part.

Who wouldn’t consider it?

You are picturing a car as a hunk of metal that you have to sweat to take care of that you gotta have to get you from point A to point B. Musk pictures it as a luxury transportation experience that can service itself, network with others, and generate revenue for its owner. 

You are not even on the same planet as Musk.

(BTW, it is also a vehicle that can operate in zero gravity, so when he uses the technology in part for colonizing Mars, you will literally be on a different planet). 

It ain’t a car.

I don't disagree at all.  That is why I said things like "on the right track but not there yet."  I was just a bit more cynical in my wording.  I'm not quite following your All repairs and service are handled with no effort on your part.  This doesn't work if your parts supply is non-existent, you drop a two-year-old model from any support, refuse to release parts, refuse to sell parts, and even your dealers can't get parts.  This is a recipe worse than the Oldsmobile 350 diesel.  At least GM had a warranty and the aftermarket had solutions.  Tesla has nothing.  They are cranking out cars that are revolutionizing (via a tiny drop in the bucket) the automotive world... with a car that can become a useless lump of unsupported, un-fixable junk in a matter of months.  (and, on a sidenote, Olds diesels more or less killed Americans' acceptance of diesel.  Tesla may end up being the single greatest step toward energy independence... but if it fails as their current business model suggests, it could be a massive setback)

Musk took advantage of a golden opportunity and dropped a bomb on the automotive industry.  I think my viewpoint is more hoping for a wakeup call.  Most environmental conversations go something like this...

Consumer: "I bought an electric car because I'm saving the planet"
Me: "well, yes, but keep in mind that you're only reducing driving emissions, not manufacturing or post-mortem impact"
Consumer: "Lalalalalala..... electricity doesn't make emissions."

My poorly-presented point was more to say that it is an incredibly exciting shift in the transportation world (and I would also admit a HUGE shift, comparatively) but it is also the tiniest shift in the grand scheme.  I'm reminded of the story of the old man throwing starfish back into the ocean after they washed up on the beach.  A cynical person criticized his efforts because there are millions of starfish washed up on the beach, so what does it matter? and the old man said "it matters to this one."

I am the old man throwing starfish into the ocean realizing that it takes everyone throwing starfish to really make the difference we want to see.  Electric car marketers tend to make buyers feel (hyperbolically speaking) that they are single-handedly saving the universe from destruction by buying a car that killed a few hundred Bolivian and Argentinian miners in the process of extracting lithium, shipping the lithium to Asian third-world countries where the absent emissions laws allow the deadly levels of noxious gasses can flow freely, then putting it all on an unregulated ship that burns thousands of gallons of fuel to get it to its destination.  It kinda chaps my buttocks that we are killing people in third-world countries by passing the emissions to them so that our privileged butts can sit in an electric car.

I find Musk's approach reckless and potentially damaging... not because it really is reckless, but because if it fails it will set us back a few decades.  (decades which we can't really spare IMO)

Again... I agree.  This is a brilliant step in the right direction and I think Musk started a trend that rocks my socks, but I also feel like this is an ad from the 70s where they introduce light cigarettes as a safer alternative to full-flavor.  The answer is to stop berkeleying smoking, but people are flocking to the Camel Lights thinking they are doing good.

... which I find ironic as I'm currently rolling a cigarette.

GIRTHQUAKE
GIRTHQUAKE Reader
12/26/18 5:21 a.m.

+1 to Curtis. I wish I could find it, but one of the few environmental websites I frequent that isn't  huffing the smell of their own farts had a great chart of "What vehicle to buy?" for carbon footprint- and only suggested buying a new electric car if yours is becoming too expensive to maintain or is using too much fuel because of the "cost" of building it. In fact, if you really want to be a climate warrior your best bet is finding an old car in a junkyard or private party and swapping a full EV drivetrain into it- your "carbon tax" isn't as high since you bought something already "paid" for by the planet, but you're still promoting electrics.

Hopefully, recent technologies like Lithium-Sulphur do take off as Sony is hoping, as not only do these store more energy but also cut down on the cobalt use.

Dave M
Dave M Reader
12/26/18 5:45 a.m.

In reply to Curtis :

This is pretty much FUD. Do you have any data to back up your assertions? I love a good V8, but EV propulsion is way more efficient from an energy conversion perspective than ICE. Unless the battery production is insanely carbon intensive, there's no way that the EV is not way more efficient from a carbon emissions perspective unless your power generation mix is 100 percent coal. Which nobody's is.

dculberson
dculberson UltimaDork
12/26/18 7:33 a.m.

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

The question isn’t typically “should I buy this $100k electric car or drive some 10 year old car.” People in the Tesla market aren’t shopping used cars and aren’t keeping cars for 10 years. They’re going to buy a new car and a Tesla versus a 5 or 7 series bmw is a gain for the environment. As used Teslas become more common, then it’ll be a question of keeping your 10 year old car or buying a 10 year old Tesla. 

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
12/26/18 7:43 a.m.

In reply to Curtis :

I don’t disagree with you, but you are sounding a little like my grandfather. “Get the berkeley off my lawn!”

My repair and service comment was about his vision, not yours. You want a vehicle with parts available and accessible technology so everyone can sweat and try to muscle through doing their own repairs. Musk wants a vehicle that continuously self-monitors and diagnoses preemptively, then drives itself to the authorized repair center to get fixed while you are at work or the opera. 

Different planets. 

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
12/26/18 7:53 a.m.

In reply to Curtis :

BTW, you completely misused the starfish analogy. 

The old man is a bringer of hope. He offers life to the ones he throws back, and ignores the overwhelming negative odds.

You're not the old man. You are focused on the fear, uncertainty and doubt, not the hope. 

I’m not being critical. Lord knows that’s often me. But these changes are coming, and our energy would be better utilized in positive efforts to learn how to embrace the changes. 

If your concern is Ukrainian miners, or Chinese assemblers, I applaud that. Get to work. They are gonna need your enthusiasm and support. 

You can’t stop this by bitching any more than you could have stopped everyone from smoking in the ‘70’s. 

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
12/26/18 8:09 a.m.

In reply to Curtis :

One more thing...

Yes, 63% of US electric production is by burning fossil fuels. But half of that figure is natural gas, which burns cleanly.  That statistic is irrelevant to your point. 

Your concern is emissions. The relevant statistic would be how much emissions have been REDUCED recently, and how much fossil fuel dependency has DECREASED recently. 

I have no statistics, but I guarantee there have been reductions in the last decade.  Largely due to public awareness of...

(drumroll please)

...AUTO EMMISSIONS.

The EVs and vehicles you are ranting against are actually providing the solution to the emissions problem you are concerned about.

So, buy yourself an EV, and start throwing starfish back.  wink

(Love ‘ya, man!)

 

bcp2011
bcp2011 Reader
12/26/18 11:15 a.m.
dculberson said:

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

The question isn’t typically “should I buy this $100k electric car or drive some 10 year old car.” People in the Tesla market aren’t shopping used cars and aren’t keeping cars for 10 years. They’re going to buy a new car and a Tesla versus a 5 or 7 series bmw is a gain for the environment. As used Teslas become more common, then it’ll be a question of keeping your 10 year old car or buying a 10 year old Tesla. 

This is the key point to what's better for the environment.  Cars age out and new ones are built, so the question is what is the old car replaced with?  If it's an ICE then it's likely to be cleaner than the old car replaced (likely being key word here).  But if it's replaced with an EV then it's even cleaner.  Then so on and so forth.  Only people like us on this forum would consider and cheer on someone for reviving something from a junkyard (btw nothing wrong with that as we're a small small subset of the population that have weird fetishes on cars...).  

bcp2011
bcp2011 Reader
12/26/18 11:30 a.m.

Anything involving electric cars inevitably devolves into a conversation around how "dirty" the battery making process is, how coal is just as awful, etc. etc.  I've tried to interject some facts into these debates but honestly it's like groundhog's day... 

So I'll make three suggestions:

1) For those who have not had a chance to drive an electric car (or better yet, a Tesla) - go test drive one.  It doesn't commit you to anything, but hear out the pitch and where the world is headed (connected, smarter, etc.).  And I bet you'll have a stupid grin on your face when you mash the gas the first time (at least for a Tesla).  The amount of torque and the instantaneous nature of an electric engine has to be felt to be believed.  My FIL just got a Model S 75D (bottom of the line car) and seeing how it accelerates from a light or on the highway is just laughable.  

2) If you're going to have an opinion, may I suggest that you make that an educated one.  People have raised all sorts of objections about why electric cars suck or not practical and how dirty electricity is, and some of the objections are *very valid and warrant a debate*.  However, most of the folks chiming in have a complete lack of understanding of the actual data.  See VW discontinuing ICE thread for an example of this.  

3) I see the ingenuity of people here in fabricating stuff, figuring out how to make something really old run like new again, etc. and it's fascinating.  Now if everyone put that frame of mind into new solutions (not just electric cars), rather than just whining about why some new technology isn't yet better than the old one (or can never be), then we'd make the world a better place.  I think we're all thankful that Henry Ford and the founders of GM, etc. did not think that cars were never going to be good enough to replace horses (no fuel infrastructure, horribly unreliable, etc.), but over time those issues were solved.  

 

 

Ian F
Ian F MegaDork
12/26/18 12:16 p.m.

For me, a move to electric would be mostly for convenience: pull into the garage each night and plug it in - no need to get gas every week. 

In a less likely scenario,  I plan to get a generator for my house. Either natural gas or diesel (fed from my heating oil tank). One of the devices the generator would power would be the battery charger.  Once in a great while, my area can get hit with major storms which can knock power out for extended periods of time, which also knock out gas stations and create short-time shortages as the few stations with power run dry.  Being able to charge the car without being grid-dependent could be useful.

californiamilleghia
californiamilleghia Reader
12/26/18 1:10 p.m.
Ian F said:

For me, a move to electric would be mostly for convenience: pull into the garage each night and plug it in - no need to get gas every week. 

And that is the problem , throwing  the extension cord from your 3rd story apartment window so you can plug in your EV parked in front of your building :)

Many people do not have the same parking spot every night ,  or if you are traveling will we have EV hotels with a charging point in front of you hotel room door ?

That's why hybrids make more sense now,  at least you are not stuck places looking for a charging point,  batteries will get better  but will you need 5x better or 10x better ????

I do not  know , really no one does ,  but being a trend setter always costs more money.....

MrSmokey
MrSmokey New Reader
12/26/18 1:20 p.m.

I would really hate to see the good ole v8 go away

Ian F
Ian F MegaDork
12/26/18 1:50 p.m.

In reply to californiamilleghia :

Like I said, For me.  I have a garage. My commute means I wouldn't need to worry about finding a charger. For long distance trips, I have a fleet of gas and diesel vehicles that I have no intention of getting rid of.  A hybrid still needs gas (or I suppose, potentially diesel) and thus defeats the reason I would want such a vehicle.

Your argument is one I hear/read all the time and it really misses the point.  Are EV's the answer for EVERYONE?  No.  But they can be an answer for some. And as Svrex mentioned, they have the potential for being automated "taxies" in places where owning a car can be a hassle and/or not always needed.  At the other end of the spectrum, EV's would be difficult in areas of the country where one has to travel long distances to get from A to B.  But just because an EV isn't right for everyone, doesn't mean they should be dismissed outright.

Car batteries are among the most recycled components of all consumer products. I once read the automotive battery recycle percentage is something like 90-95%.  There is no reason to believe EV batteries would be any different. And as mazduece demonstrated a year or two ago when he bought a non-functional Insight, it's not terribly difficult to diagnose and fix and EV battery if you have the desire to. 

As far as Tesla and non-available parts, it's amazing how quickly the aftermarket can fill a void if there is money to be made.  Yes, it's annoying as hell now, but that doesn't mean it will always be that way.

Type Q
Type Q SuperDork
12/26/18 2:10 p.m.
bcp2011 said:

Anything involving electric cars inevitably devolves into a conversation around how "dirty" the battery making process is, how coal is just as awful, etc. etc.  I've tried to interject some facts into these debates but honestly it's like groundhog's day... 

So I'll make three suggestions:

1) For those who have not had a chance to drive an electric car (or better yet, a Tesla) - go test drive one.  It doesn't commit you to anything, but hear out the pitch and where the world is headed (connected, smarter, etc.).  And I bet you'll have a stupid grin on your face when you mash the gas the first time (at least for a Tesla).  The amount of torque and the instantaneous nature of an electric engine has to be felt to be believed.  My FIL just got a Model S 75D (bottom of the line car) and seeing how it accelerates from a light or on the highway is just laughable.  

2) If you're going to have an opinion, may I suggest that you make that an educated one.  People have raised all sorts of objections about why electric cars suck or not practical and how dirty electricity is, and some of the objections are *very valid and warrant a debate*.  However, most of the folks chiming in have a complete lack of understanding of the actual data.  See VW discontinuing ICE thread for an example of this.  

3) I see the ingenuity of people here in fabricating stuff, figuring out how to make something really old run like new again, etc. and it's fascinating.  Now if everyone put that frame of mind into new solutions (not just electric cars), rather than just whining about why some new technology isn't yet better than the old one (or can never be), then we'd make the world a better place.  I think we're all thankful that Henry Ford and the founders of GM, etc. did not think that cars were never going to be good enough to replace horses (no fuel infrastructure, horribly unreliable, etc.), but over time those issues were solved.  

 

 

I would add to this that if we are talking about technologies where one has been in wide use 80 to 100 years more than the other,  the newer one is not going to be able to replace every use case for the older one. So if EV's don't meet you needs at the moment, it means that they don't meet your needs at the moment. It doesn't meant that there is something inherently evil about EV's or the people who use them. The technology, business models, infrastructure and your life situation are changing constantly.

As other have pointed out, as much as we may dislike change, it is happening. We can try to understand and shape it to our advantage or we can get run over by it. I am trying to keep open ears, open eyes, and an open mind. I have been run over enough in my life already.

californiamilleghia
californiamilleghia Reader
12/26/18 2:16 p.m.

As far as Tesla and non-available parts, it's amazing how quickly the aftermarket can fill a void if there is money to be made.  Yes, it's annoying as hell now, but that doesn't mean it will always be that way.

I hope you are right about the spare parts.....

But I was talking with a Taiwanese guy whose family owned a factory making replacement body parts. for Chevy , Ford etc    , He  stopped selling in the USA because he was getting sued for selling copy parts that had a design patent on them.....this was just fendrers, hoods and other "crash" parts...

Yes I know other companies are selling crash parts , it was just not worth it for this company

Hopefully Tesla will not sue companies making replacement parts ,  only time will tell.....

Ohh and does anyone know what the European Community rules are on spare parts?

barefootskater
barefootskater HalfDork
12/26/18 3:31 p.m.

I'm fascinated by all this. The engineering, packaging, performance, etc.. of EVs is amazing to watch develop and hit the market.

My few concerns, and they are minor and I may be blowing them out of proportion:

1) Batteries. How long do batteries last, ten years at best? Hypothetically: If a Tesla has a couple thousand little batteries and you can get them for $10 each (highly unlikely) then how much does it cost to replace them when they go? How much in labor? Seems to me that it is too much even for a DIY person to keep going in ten years.

2) The propulsion system is fine (simple, powerful) but I dislike computers. I dislike networks. I like mechanical stuff. I can see it working (or at least I can take it apart and see how it should work). When my computer has problems I can generally figure it out if it is minor. I can replace components easily enough if I know what to replace. But give me something that is carbureted and runs on points and I can keep that going pretty much forever with very minimal tooling. Maybe it'll get easier if I learn a bit more? Maybe better aftermarket support/documentation?

I tell you what I'd buy. A purely electric car with a reasonable range 350miles+-, reasonable charge time <1hour, and batteries that will last more than 5-7 years. Something with crank windows, manual seats, manual locks, a killer stereo and as little computing power as can be gotten away with. In a nutshell I want the performance and convenience of a tesla, the simplicity of a geo metro and the price of a civic. I'm sure we'll get there, but I don't think it'll be for a few more years.

 

californiamilleghia
californiamilleghia Reader
12/26/18 5:53 p.m.

In reply to barefootskater :

Yep !

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