The future of driving, and drivers?

NOHOME wrote: I guess the point of the thread was not well stated. It is not up for debate if the number of kids driving is going up or down. It is a fact that they are going down. My question then is." what is going to happen to the car industry as we know it?" Maybe not next year, but say 50-100 years, if the trend continues?

Probably something like most cars on the road are google driven self driving cars that all auto hypermile. And if you want to drive a car for real you have to go to specified areas or tracks

I tend to be pretty libertarian in my ideas, but I will HAPPILY pay to subsidize a good, working public transit system. You never know you wanted it until you've lived somewhere that had a really good one (Berlin's is amazing). Don't want to drive to entertainment because parking is a PITA? No problem. Only have a summer car that doesn't see snow? No problem. Need to get home from a friend's place drunk at 3:00 AM? No problem.

I don't see it as an issue if not every kid gets his or her licence immediately. So they have no interest in cars, don't want to drive, and can get around fine by bus - good for them! Less congestion, less pollution, less road works needed, etc... More room for us enthusiasts out there. Wouldn't it be great if like 50% of the "point A to point B" crowd took public transit?

It's hard to say. A significant increase in non-drivers could force investment in the mass transit systems and infrastructures. Especially if many of these non-drivers start to enter politics. I've also read stories of a generational shift of kids moving out of the suburbs and into cities where having a car really is more of a luxury. Then there is the option of getting a "Zip-car".

Do kids even go to the mall anymore?

I don't think the next 50 years will have as dramatic of a social and technological impact as the last 50, but it will prove to be an interesting time to live through (if I live that long).

I would like to have public transportation as long as it actually went to where I want. I know that the train system here in Atlanta(MARTA) is a joke. Only thing I have ever used it for was parking my car at one of the stations and riding the train down because it was cheaper than airport parking.

NOHOME wrote: I guess the point of the thread was not well stated. It is not up for debate if the number of kids driving is going up or down. It is a fact that they are going down. My question then is." what is going to happen to the car industry as we know it?" Maybe not next year, but say 50-100 years, if the trend continues?

Flying cars and matter transporters, I'd love to step onto my transporter pad and be in the office 1 second later, only problem would be if I forgot to put my clothes on...

To be honest, I'd rather people who think of cell phones as a status symbol stay out from behind the wheel of a car, because chances are, they'll use that $600 cell phone while driving and crash into me. And less cars on the road means less traffic and less inattentiveness, which means people who like driving (me) get to enjoy it rather than loathe it. Oh and less cars means less fuel consumption which means less of our money going to every country that hates us. And the environmental thing.

This seems like a win-win-win-win situation.

Mass Transit is simply NOT a solution for huge parts of even suburban southern california. The cities themselves are just designed so spread out that it does not make sense. If you look at the euro cities where it works you have a grocery store within walking distance of pretty much anywhere you live and your box stores etc tend to be conglomerated on transit hubs or in certain areas.

I think its far more likely you see hybrid/electric/hydrogen powered auto driving google cars that people just use to get point A to B. Probably on some sort of system where the transport is leased and the people pay per mile

carguy123 wrote: Public transportation is subsidized everywhere in America that I know of so the more public transportation the more it costs us.

True, but so is every road and the oil infrastructure. No matter how you slice it, we subsidize ever form of transportation short of walking or riding a bike.

There are way too many cars on the roads. If folks want to stay off, sounds like a good plan to me.

Anti-stance wrote: I would like to have public transportation as long as it actually went to where I want. I know that the train system here in Atlanta(MARTA) is a joke. Only thing I have ever used it for was parking my car at one of the stations and riding the train down because it was cheaper than airport parking.

I live here, I love it, but..MARTA is a joke. It's not so much a transit system as it is a jobs program for the inner city.

The train part of San Diego's stuff works good for what it is. but not sure about the bus system etc. I had a guy who worked for me who's 20-30 minute commute in a car took him like 2+ hours by public transit

Maybe I'm getting old at 34, but Ifind this phenomena confusing. There is no debating that the number of kids waiting in line at the DMV is going down.

I grew up in the country. I put 10-15 miles a day on average on my BMX during the summers, just to ride and see the sights. The weekly family trip into town Wal-Mart was a treat, just to get out. You're damn right I was in line to get my license and a job at 15. I loved going to work, hauling groceries, the thrill of setting off to work without enough gas to get back home and hoping for a couple of bucks in tips.

Kids today are too priviledged. They have everything they need at home. But driving is also harder and less rewarding today for new drivers -- the roads are congested, traffic is everywhere and moving at greater speeds.

It's important to get kids driving younger. It's a lot harder to pick up a new skill at 30 than it is at 15. I'm not sure what the future holds, but I hope to get my kids engaged in car culture and driving early.

Jaynen wrote: The train part of San Diego's stuff works good for what it is. but not sure about the bus system etc. I had a guy who worked for me who's 20-30 minute commute in a car took him like 2+ hours by public transit

True... you do need to be in and going to the right place. I live within walking distance of a Septa (SE PA) train station. I can easily be in Center City Philly in about the same time it takes to drive there and between fuel and parking, it's cheaper as well. NYC is farther and more expensive, but less stressful than driving. Plus, I haven't parked in NYC in years, but I understand it is nutz-expensive. Yes, you are at the whims of the train schedule, but that's not much different than beign at the whims of traffic and accidents.

Of course, this is all moot since I drive 50 miles each way to work...

I agree with Tyler. I couldnt learn to drive quick enough when I was young. My dad tought me in a gravel lot with his Buick when I was 11-12. By 13 I had a car of my own. It was a 79 Chevy Malibu. I worked on it at my grandparents house and it was a good experience. By the time I was 15 and able to work, I did.

I did have friends that showed no intrest in getting a license or job, until they were over 18. It was as strange to me then as it is now. Its like not having a beer on your 21st...

NOHOME wrote: My question then is." what is going to happen to the car industry as we know it?" Maybe not next year, but say 50-100 years, if the trend continues?

Well, nothing is permanent. Right now, the auto industry (not the car, but the industry) is barely over 100 years old. 100 years from now, maybe a better idea comes along, since the car is basically a replacement of a horse.

Blame it on the internet. One of the big motivating factors for most of us and in history for people wanting to drive was the freedom it gave them. We had to go places to see things to do things everything was not piped into our home. Want to listen to music? go buy a CD or to a concert. Want to watch a movie? head down to the rental store or the theatre? want to play a game with a friend? head over to their place and hope their mom asks you to stay for dinner.

Now you just jump on xbox live and play with your buddies through voice chat, while torrenting movies, and downloading music on Itunes. A lot of our teen motivations for personal transport aren't there

In reply to Jaynen:

As a teen, I pretty much wanted to get as far away from parental supervision as possible.

It's important to remember that not everyone cares about cars. To many they're a necessary evil; ignoring the ideological grounds, they're typically the second most expensive item in a budget. Can you imagine hating to sew but having to make your own clothes? Well thankfully other people take care of the seamstressing nowadays. The clothes may not fit perfectly, but the compromise is worthwhile. Public transportation isn't necessarily a replacement, but rather another option. It may take longer to reach the destination, but the ride is typically relaxed. You can read, take care of work that would otherwise be taken home, etc. Transit time does not have to be wasted time.

Jaynen wrote: Mass Transit is simply NOT a solution for huge parts of even suburban southern california. The cities themselves are just designed so spread out that it does not make sense. If you look at the euro cities where it works you have a grocery store within walking distance of pretty much anywhere you live and your box stores etc tend to be conglomerated on transit hubs or in certain areas. I think its far more likely you see hybrid/electric/hydrogen powered auto driving google cars that people just use to get point A to B. Probably on some sort of system where the transport is leased and the people pay per mile

Yes most areas that have a good working Public Transit system tend to be very small, geographically. People living on top of each other (shudder).

Here in Texas the Public transit system is the preferred getaway vehicle for criminals. Not TV toting criminals but muggers and the like. I'd just as soon public transportation go away along with the huge tax on everything I purchase.

Fort Worth has a free bus that runs all around downtown. It works well. It doesn't bring the criminal element in from the burbs and really makes getting around very nice. FW also has free parking zones after 5 so this brings lots of people to a very viable downtown area.

Dallas by way of contrast has an abysmal downtown & uptown area. You can actually live in downtown FW and get to all kinds of stores and groceries, but in Dallas you'll need to drive or ride a bus somewhere else to do most of your shopping. FW has a very active night life and many restaurants. Dallas, you're looking over your shoulder all the time.

How will you put into place a mass transit system when DFW spans a distance of about 100 miles wide and 75 or more tall. I have no idea how many official square miles that would be. There's simply no way to put together a mass transit system that is useful except with the broad brush strokes. There's no way to allow you to live and work in an area that big off of public transit.

And Dallas is small when compared to Houston.

So in my mind localized transit or cars of some sort work much better and would be much cheaper.

What if their was like a "smart" shuttle system. Its like groupon or something you say i want to go to target, and autozone other people in your area also say yeah I want to go to target and when enough people want to go a shuttle comes and picks everyone up and takes them to that destination. Instead of static bus routes you dynamically build routes based on where people want to go

But you still have to find the people, you still have a wait, plus now you've got stops for everyone else, you're probably not dropped off at the door and now you've got try to coordinate a return trip.

I don't know about you guys but my time is worth something. If you just worked out minimum wage for your time you'd still probably be ahead owning a car.

Jaynen wrote: What if their was like a "smart" shuttle system.Instead of static bus routes you dynamically build routes based on where people want to go

I think that this will be something accomplished by the private industry eventually.

The problem with subsidization of mass transit is that the transportation authorities buy large buses, big buildings, and give those at the top a pay raise.

Instead, they should be making buses smaller, adding more drivers, and adding more routes.

Maybe Wally can chime in on that topic.

Jaynen wrote: Probably something like most cars on the road are google driven self driving cars that all auto hypermile. And if you want to drive a car for real you have to go to specified areas or tracks

I'm guessing this is the most likely case. It'll be a lot like horses in that sense in that you can still go ride, there are plenty of enthusiasts who keep and maintain them, but it's no longer an everyman thing.

And I'm thinking that self-driving cars are going to be common to the point that manual driving will be seen as reckless and possibly even become a criminal offense in certain areas or during certain parts of the day (think times when carpool lanes are active).

As much as I don't really like the idea of my car driving for me, knowing that a computer is controlling everyone else's car during rush hour would probably make traffic flow a lot smoother. No slowing down to rubberneck, no merge-blocking, no getting blocked from your exit, no accordianing from stop to 70+ mph and back again, no crazy bastard weaving in and out of every single lane...

If google car means the special lanes for those cars on the highway all do 100 mph safely because no one is changing lanes or slamming brakes etc i'd commute with one and just use my normal car for fun

Kids are expensive and dangerous. Really, who can afford them?

carguy123 wrote: I don't know about you guys but my time is worth something. If you just worked out minimum wage for your time you'd still probably be ahead owning a car.

True, but technology helps mitigate this. I answered about a 1/2 dozen e-mails on my smart phone while on the train from NYC. I couldn't really do that if I were driving. If I were riding the train every day I would almost certainly own some sort of tablet computer that was linked to my desk top here at work.

Jaynen wrote: If google car means the special lanes for those cars on the highway all do 100 mph safely because no one is changing lanes or slamming brakes etc i'd commute with one and just use my normal car for fun

This. I love driving, but commuting is not so much fun after awhile...