The future of our current overly-complex automobiles?

A friend's late model BMW troubles got me to thinking about the complexity of modern cars, especially the complexity of the higher end stuff such as BMWs, Mercs, Audis, Lexus, Acura, Caddy, etc. Going into 2013, with all of the automotive techno baggage that encompasses, it's pretty much an established fact that you can no longer afford to own any of these complex autos when they run out of warranty.

Now that bills like $4000 a/c repair , $10k plus 7 and 8 speed auto tranny rebiuld, $4-6000 VVT repairs, $5k active suspension rehabs, etc are commonplace, I belive that it will all come home to roost at some point in the not too distant future, in the form of MASSIVE depreciation hits at the end of the factory warranties, with no one wanting to buy a second hand, warranty-less car that they cannot afford to keep on the road. I can also see this putting the secondary warranty companies out of business.

I would imagine it will also hit new sales of these cars as well at some point, with very few people being able to digest a 90% depreciation on a $60-80,000 and up automobile after a mere 5 years of ownership.

Does anyone agree that this is coming?

Wouldn't surprise me.....but welcome to hell.

This is exactly the reason why, after owning five used BMWs, our new car is a Kia. The wife wanted something new-ish, and late-model BMW's have more integrated electronics than the original Cray supercomputers.

You need to explain tome why Jaguar is not out of business. They have been operating under this business model for 30 years.

That said, yes I do agree that ownership of used luxury cars is a scary thing. Something that some people can take advantage of if circumstances and skills allow, but not for the unprepared.

I AM looking forward to buying a used Jag F Type in about 8 years for about 10k. If I also pick up a ratty/crashed one for parts as needed, that still some high falluting motoring to be had for reasonable $$$!

Agree. Was talking with my daughter about some of the benefits at her new job. Title Clerk for the local car dealer that sells BMW, Land Rover, Porsche, Jaguar, Volvo and Fiskar. Even her at age 25 stated that for those cars you don't want to own one out of warranty and thinks Lease is better for those class of cars. Pick up a used one for a good deal and eventually you'll end up laying out more than it's worth to fix something. What they call diminishing returns.

I have to disagree to some point. Do you need that EE/ME degree to fix it? No, but you can't go in never having owned but much less used a screwdriver in your life.

There is actually law on the books related to this argument, but the scapegoat in the law is that the OE can charge whatever for "access" from a non-dealer source to repair their vehicles. The law only says that the OE cannot lock out the aftermarket from access.

What do I see in the future? Something exactly like I proposed as a business idea earlier on this board. Someone will pay to have access like the dealer and travel around to the various shops to introduce the replaced modules to the vehicle. Outside of that, general repair shops will turn into either marque specific, bulk part replacers like brakes, oil changes, window regulators, etc, or go out of business and leave it all to the dealers to fix.

Ranger50 wrote: I have to disagree to some point. Do you need that EE/ME degree to fix it? No, but you can't go in never having owned but much less used a screwdriver in your life. There is actually law on the books related to this argument, but the scapegoat in the law is that the OE can charge whatever for "access" from a non-dealer source to repair their vehicles. The law only says that the OE cannot lock out the aftermarket from access. What do I see in the future? Something exactly like I proposed as a business idea earlier on this board. Someone will pay to have access like the dealer and travel around to the various shops to introduce the replaced modules to the vehicle. Outside of that, general repair shops will turn into either marque specific, bulk part replacers like brakes, oil changes, window regulators, etc, or go out of business and leave it all to the dealers to fix.

I agree with you that us "car guys" here on a car guy forum have a better chance at keeping these things on the road, but in the grand scheme of things, what pecentage of the car buying public do we make up? MAYBE 5% at best?

Aeromoto wrote:

Ranger50 wrote: I have to disagree to some point. Do you need that EE/ME degree to fix it? No, but you can't go in never having owned but much less used a screwdriver in your life. There is actually law on the books related to this argument, but the scapegoat in the law is that the OE can charge whatever for "access" from a non-dealer source to repair their vehicles. The law only says that the OE cannot lock out the aftermarket from access. What do I see in the future? Something exactly like I proposed as a business idea earlier on this board. Someone will pay to have access like the dealer and travel around to the various shops to introduce the replaced modules to the vehicle. Outside of that, general repair shops will turn into either marque specific, bulk part replacers like brakes, oil changes, window regulators, etc, or go out of business and leave it all to the dealers to fix.

I agree with you that us "car guys" here on a car guy forum have a better chance at keeping these things on the road, but in the grand scheme of things, what pecentage of the car buying public do we make up? MAYBE 5% at best?

Far, far less than that.

In reply to Aeromoto:

Think of service side on this too, there are a lot of mechanics who are just "TELL ME WHATS WRONG AND ILL REPLACE IT!" and now you have these advanced systems, processes and electronics that is going to basically require a new breed of technician.

I got a glimpse of that at my current job right now, with people installing roll stability ABS valves on their trailers, I have to instruct the trailer mechanics (they are proficient in hammers and welders, thats about it) over the phone how to use a computer diagnostic software to calibrate all the sensors and the ECU on these things... Its awful.

Also, say goodby to the garage mechanic.

In reply to Aeromoto:

I was actually lampooning the mechanics that can't fix anything and tell you to take it elsewhere.

I don't see it putting secondary warranty companies out of business - quite the opposite. I think you will buy a new-ish used car, and you will also effectively buy automotive health insurance for it as part of the package. This will become a profit center for dealers, just like financing.

The future will definitely be interesting. Consumers are already deep into decoding the electronics of most vehicles so that shouldn't be that much of an issue. The big factors are labor and parts prices. The interesting thing is electronics "modules" are really expensive but the parts inside that die are dirt cheap. People are already re-soldering boards, re-lighting dead led instrument panels, and refurbing highly expensive components with a little labor and very little cash. When a component is $800 there is more of a market for the indie DIY type shop that is willing to wield a soldering iron.

Also see a rise of internet information and cottage industries or recycled or reserviced parts.

The big threat that I see is the 15 airbags with a single car. Fender benders that would normally be back on the road are totaled out much quicker.

I ll keep ya posted on how my 1989 BMW 750 il project works out.

Nothing new here. Time marches on.

I think many people buying second or third hand luxury cars have no idea what they are in for. After a few huge repairs, they off it and buy another or just leave it broken if it still runs.

What really worries me it that even "basic" Fords and Chevy's are packed with electronics in the same manner as the more expensive cars. If you can afford a 25K used lux car and it goes boom, you most likely can buy a cheaper car. If your 3k Ford fails, you may not have enough for something else.

That day is not near, it's here. It might be the usual degree of difficulty to r&r parts, but the necessary equipment to marry the new component to the car requires expensive diagnostic equipment. Not only that, but these manufacturers are also putting the repair procedures (think repair manuals) into these scantools.These scanners are available to the public (as per law), but are priced out of range for garage mechanics and small shops and require monthly/yearly subscriptions.

The junk yards will be full of high end cars with broken modules. The early e65 7 series have up to 120 separate "modules" in them. The replacement parts are expensive and the installation is expensive. On top of that, just replacing a battery can require a full software upgrade of many modules, and the chance of other modules "crashing" during said update can cost you $2K. Which is why you can buy a car that was 6 figures new for 4 figures used.

I bet they were saying this stuff on the early BBS about the cars then.

The future of our current overly-complex automobiles?

Remove (overly-complex-ness). Insert SBC/LS/overly-simple drivetrain of preference. Proceed to $20XX challenge. Profit.

MrJoshua wrote: The future will definitely be interesting. Consumers are already deep into decoding the electronics of most vehicles so that shouldn't be that much of an issue. The big factors are labor and parts prices. The interesting thing is electronics "modules" are really expensive but the parts inside that die are dirt cheap. People are already re-soldering boards, re-lighting dead led instrument panels, and refurbing highly expensive components with a little labor and very little cash. When a component is $800 there is more of a market for the indie DIY type shop that is willing to wield a soldering iron.

This...

Similar scenario...My cars oem stereo has only a cd player, and radio option for inputs. An aftermarket stereo of similar quality (bose) with an aux-in port would be at least a couple of C-notes, if not more. An aux-in port w/pigtail is $5 from Radio shack. Scratch away the copper on the printed board, solder 3 wires, and you now have a fully functional, oem looking stereo with functionality that should cost hundreds if you went to the aftermarket.

Now, apply this to electronically controlled direct injection modules, or transmission control units, and you could achieve similar results for pennies. Once a warranty is void, its void - it doesnt matter how much you fiddle with the zeros and ones that control your car.

Cars are quickly becoming what computers and phones have become, "disposable". Buy a new one, use it for the warranty period, then throw it away for the next new one.

I do foresee a future glut of MS-powered, windowless, gutted, cars being raced around the country with Powerglide's swapped in...

I was talking about this with my father today about the term "luxury" in regards to new cars.

a 2012 Hyundai Accent.. even a stripper model, has just about as many luxury items in it that my father's 1989 Grand Marquis did. The Marquis may have ridden smoother and been a lot more plush inside.. but the things that were luxury when that car was new.. are standard today.

Do new drivers even know how to "roll up" their windows?

I agree with everything said and the op. Hell even the 6.0 powerstroke diesel in my truck, its really complicated and a lot of regular mechanics can't competently repair it. And the new 6.7 diesels have TWO cooling systems. One for the engine and one for the emissions equipment. Both operate with different temperatures and different coolants. Its madness....

and these new cars with all this active fuel economy stuff, shutters that open and close, suspensions that raise or lower, that stuff is all gonna not work in 10 years.

10 airbags make your car safer, but they make your car heavier, so you need more power to go the same speed (but of course the new car will have to go faster as well), so more power. More power but has to come with fuel economy too right? turbocharged engines. They are heavy. Need more power still, so tune the turbo engine to have a peakier power band to keep more power and more economy. peakier power band needs a 6 or 7 speed transmission to keep up. And all of this crap makes your car even heavier and more complicated. Manufacturers want one big computer to control everything, like the new vehicles with GPS/bluetooth/AC controls/backup cameras/economy monitors and its all linked together. Thats one big thing to go wrong. One expensive thing to repair.

Cadillac has new commercials I hear on ESPN radio talking about how the rain sensing wipers tell the computer when they turn on, and the computer switches to a different abs program that pushes the pads closer to the rotors to keep them clear of water, and how they are so technologically advanced that a non dealer can't repair them so be sure to go to your cadillac dealer for service. Thats basically the gist of them. the tagline is "not everyone can keep up with a cadillac."

I'm glad that cars have improved a lot in safety and comfort, but go read an old issue of car and driver where they compare 10 cars for under 10,000 and the heaviest car in the test is 2400 lbs and the worst mpg was in the low 30's (and the fastest- a sentra- sprinted to 60 in 8.5 seconds).

For nay-sayers, please research the going rates and repair crisis with the Buick Reatta.

There's a reason luxury cars depreciate like they do. My Dad's 5 series that he recently sold is a good example. In the last couple of years he spent more on repairs than he got selling it a couple of months ago. And it was perfect with less than 70k miles. Every problem it had was electronic or ac related. And it was absolutely stone age compared to his new one. The amount of electronics on it is mind boggling.

Also, the son recently bought a new Explorer and is so similar to the BMW that i'm curious if they are from the same manufacturer. Neither are going to be pleasant out of warranty...and is the reason my Dad gets a new one as the warranty expires. Except on the 5 and it cost him.

mad_machine wrote: I was talking about this with my father today about the term "luxury" in regards to new cars. a 2012 Hyundai Accent.. even a stripper model, has just about as many luxury items in it that my father's 1989 Grand Marquis did. The Marquis may have ridden smoother and been a lot more plush inside.. but the things that were luxury when that car was new.. are standard today. Do new drivers even know how to "roll up" their windows?

Like I said above, I've been reading old car and driver articles at work. They have these comparison tests from the late 80's and early 90's and talk about optional features like airbags, rear defroster, intermittent wipers, power windows/mirrors/locks, remote hatch or trunk releases, and etc. Hell on the real econoboxes even the passenger side mirror was optional!!! most of these cars had no ABS, no airbags, and if you wanted power steering you had to pay extra for it. Air conditioning? optional. Radio delete plates were factory standard, radios were dealer installed extras! And then you can go to the ford dealer now and order a fiesta, the cheapest car they have, and it comes standard with all that stuff. I was surprised manual hvac controls, roll up windows, and an am/fm stereo are standard, but then again, it does have an MP3 jack (and oh by the way good luck finding a dealer actually carrying any base models in their inventory). Of course it has stability control, tire pressure monitoring system, knee air bags, front airbags, rear airbags, etc.