The logical way to evaluate an EV

The EV is a new paradigm compared to ICE 

It's as simple as the  difference between an electric motor and an ICE.  One has basically one moving part. While the ICE and the required transmission has what,? A 1000?  more? 
    Then the ability for an electric motor to recapture energy. While the ICE has brakes that wear out.  When my Wife's Honda wore out her brakes the dealership wanted $1100 to replace them.  Granted replacing the pads cost me less than $150,  other than bleeding the brakes it's reasonable that someone who learns to drive 1 pedal  might never  need to replace the brakes. 
   Lack of Oil changes.   That's $70 a month  that will be saved.  Not to mention pistons go up and down as do valves both wearing a little  bit. 
   Sooner or later it will be time to either rebuild the engine or replace  the whole car.  
   The batteries in an EV  seem to last  an extremely long time.   At least a decade or  longer.    The last  numbers I saw was Teslas used as Taxi's  with 200,000 miles or more still retained 85% of their life.  
 If I assume 300 mile initial  range. That means after 200,000 I should be able to go 250+ miles. 
Most trips are less than 30 miles. So a little SWAG means the batteries should darn near last your working life.  
    Cost of electricity versus gasoline.  Neighbors with them tell me their electric bill went up $10-12 a month. But no gas station trips.  I fill my truck about 3 times a month average cost is $70 tank.  Times 3 is $210 month 

 So just gas and oil we're talking $280 a month. Add brake jobs and other maintenance,  is $300 a month out of line?   My truck payment is $600 and $300 for gas oil and maintenance. We are at $900  

    So if the payment for a new EV is less than $900 once it's paid off then it will only cost me $12 a month?   

$70 month in oil changes and only three tanks of gas? That's some clean oil. 

Cost per mile. 

All things being equal, EVs should be cheaper. According to C&Ds long-term test, a Model 3 burns about 5.5 cents of electricity per mile. A gas truck will be closer to 19 cents per mile. 

Then it boils down to if the EV will do what you need a vehicle to do. I have high hopes for the Lightning but I'm going to wait a couple of years to find out. 

Edit to add: Look like the Lightning is going to use about 7 cents/mile of electricity. Still better than the gas. From there it comes down to purchase price and maintenance. 

In reply to frenchyd :

The assumptions in the OP conveniently omit the maintenance surcharge (e.g. Tesla), insurance, and depreciation.

EVs are neat, but I think you're overstating some of the benefits here if we're being completely honest. EVs are WAY cleaner and more convenient than ICEs if you can charge at home and/or work. Over hundreds of thousands of miles though, I'm not sure they're likely to be significantly cheaper when compared to similar ICE models. And it could be worse if people go from driving relatively efficient ICEs to huge EV tanks because they think there's no downside to an EV.

How much do you drive that you're spending $70/mo on oil changes? That's $840/yr! Oil changes at my local dealer are about $50 these days, which would be about 17 oil changes for your annual $840 cost. If they're 5k miles in between changes, that's 85k miles per year. For a normal person that drives a normal vehicle about 13k annually, it's 2-3 oil changes each year which should cost much less than $70/mo. You're talking about $150 annually instead of $840 that most people would need to budget for oil changes per vehicle. That's $12.50/month.

Regen is cool, but EV brakes need servicing too, especially in rust prone areas. Tesla says calipers need to be cleaned and lubed every year or 12500 miles.

It cost C&D about $145 per brake service on their long term Model 3, and they replaced tires more frequently than a comparable ICE at $1k+ per set.

Public charging is often pretty similar to fuel prices, so you really only see consistent financial benefit if you can charge at home or work. However, states charging higher registration fees for EVs (to offset no fuel taxes) mostly cancel out any fuel savings from charging at home too:

In reply to STM317 :

Very well stated. 
I want EVs to work out. Since I cannot replace any of my older stuff, I didn't keep up, and learned from the hive here that they are farther along than I thought - great news! - but a lot of the pushy proponents do play fast and loose with their facts, as well as their math. 

In reply to 03Panther :

The math is the critical part. I think EVs are pretty great at a lot of things, but it seems like there are more individual factors involved that determine their true cost than there might be for an ICE so we shouldn't make assumptions about all of them in all situations. IF somebody lives in a location where gas is very expensive, solar or wind are financially viable, can charge at home or work, and the government actively supports their purchase, then EVs are pretty much a slam dunk IMO. But that's not everywhere. And they're still vehicles with suspensions and tires and things that wear and need replacement (sometimes faster than a similar ICE due to heavier weight and more torque).

Honestly, all vehicles should have "lube the brake calipers" in the service schedule. NA and NB Miatas, for example, have a tendency for the slider pins to gum up. Lubricating the calipers has been a known unofficial maintenance requirement for decades on those cars.

I think maintenance costs are going to be the big differentiator as miles rack up. You no longer have oil changes every 5-10k, plus belt changes, whatever else your particular ICE powerplant requires. My diesel pickup, for example, requires the EGR to be removed and chiseled out every 67,000 miles. That service is about $1300.

I don't think EVs are inherently any harder on tires when driven the same as an ICE, but they do lend themselves to more enthusiastic driving. Same way that adding a turbo to a Miata tends to have a fairly substantial effect on fuel economy until the driver calms down :)

The public charging costs for our car (US average) are about the same as a 45 mpg gas vehicle drinking $3/gallon fuel. Of course, we rarely refuel at public chargers so our home cost is about 1/2 that. The $50 surcharge in CO is equivalent to about 1500 miles of driving (charging at home) or 740 miles of driving (charging at public chargers).

In reply to Keith Tanner :

I think an EV is a great fit for you and your location. With low annual registration fees and high tax credits, CO has incentivized EV purchase. They also have below average electric rates and gets tons of sun that can support solar and make home charging even cheaper than most public utilities, so cost to "fuel" an EV should be very cheap even compared to gasoline. I'd say it's a slam dunk for you. But several of those factors are pretty location specific in ways that most people don't currently or historically consider for ICE purchases.

My state also has cheap electricity, but solar isn't very cost effective and the local government doesn't offer any tax breaks for EVs or solar. The average state gas tax across the US is about $0.30/gal, and the average EV registration fee looks like it's probably over $100 in the states that charge one (just eyeballing). So a $150 annual fee is equivalent to the taxes on 500 gallons of fuel (which would be 10k miles @ 20mpg in an ICE, 12,500miles @ 25mpg, 15k miles at 30mpg and 17,500 miles @ 35mpg). So any fueling cost savings comes down only to the difference between electricity rates and $/gal minus fuel tax. The EV still comes out ahead, but it's not the slam dunk that it is in other places. The cost difference gets much closer still when gas is $2/gal like it was a year ago vs when it's $3+/gal now.

Based on the math proposed, I'm very correct having an ICE powered car.  I just do an oil change once a year (10k miles), and now I don't drive much thanks to WFH.  And with rolling over leases, there's also no maintenance.  Leasing an ICE is about half of an EV, and I can't spend $200/mo on gas.

"one moving part" is a bit of an oversimplification.  Real-world EVs are a lot more complicated than it would initially appear.

Batteries and electric motors need cooling, so there are coolant hoses, radiators, and pumps (electric pumps, of course).  Also, unlike ICEs which operate significantly above ambient temperatures anywhere on Earth (and can thus passively cool via radiators), some EV components want to be at temperatures that are much closer to ambient and in some cases (looking at you, Las Vegas 116F in the shade) below ambient.  This means you need 'active cooling', which is basically an air conditioner.  If the AC fails in your gas-powered car you'll be miserable, if it fails in an EV you may be stuck on the side of the road.

Suspension, bearings, tie rods, steering rack, ball joints, etc are all the same.  The power electronics are also not infalliable -- they're not moving, but power supplies can and do fail.  That's the least reliable part of a PC once the spinning hard drives have been replaced by SSDs (hardware at least, Windows is a different matter :) ).

Don't get me wrong, I'm not denying that EVs should have lower maintenance costs than ICE vehicles.  Just don't set your expectations unrealistically high.

I do know that for my CA friends, there is no savings for charging at home due to higher electricity prices. They're all buying EVs because of their driving characteristics instead, not because of the math. The math is a bonus, if it works out. Most of them also run Lemons.

The price of gas certainly skews the math as it moves around. Just like buying a diesel for fuel economy reasons.

Looking at the EV surcharge as a function of gas tax only gets more confusing if the tax is a percentage or a set rate per gallon. 

ross2004 said:

$70 month in oil changes and only three tanks of gas? That's some clean oil. 

You are probably right.  
I just looked at the records and saw one oil change for  each of the last 3 months.   And looked at credit card records for tanks of fuel purchased.     It's probably closer to one every other month.  
   If I use Semi synthetic an oil Change is  only $50. But I found a real improvement when I use Mobil one. My last truck with 379,000 miles on it. The motor was still untouched.  And I got 1 mpg better than running it on Regular oil.  So I'm willing to spend the extra.
    
    

Toyman01 + Sized and said:

Cost per mile. 

All things being equal, EVs should be cheaper. According to C&Ds long-term test, a Model 3 burns about 5.5 cents of electricity per mile. A gas truck will be closer to 19 cents per mile. 

Then it boils down to if the EV will do what you need a vehicle to do. I have high hopes for the Lightning but I'm going to wait a couple of years to find out. 

Edit to add: Look like the Lightning is going to use about 7 cents/mile of electricity. Still better than the gas. From there it comes down to purchase price and maintenance. 

 

 

It's not always a slam dunk. For example my truck will be paid off next year.  Then without the payment, the per mile cost savings wouldn't offset the price of a truck.   Playing with the numbers a bit, getting full private party sale price, has going up by $2.00 a gallon. ( possible  in the next 11 years)  electricity staying the same, ( totally unrealistic)  it was a lot closer, but making a truck payment didn't allow for normal financial cost inflation of non fixed items like property Tax appreciation etc. so I can't justify it for me. 
   While my Wife's Honda has enough miles and age to justify selling and applying the results to  the purchase of an EV.  In fact it's actually a pretty sure cost savings approach. 
   Toyman. At 7 cents per mile, was that calculated using public chargers, or electricity from home and if from home what was the kilowatt rate?   
    I'm not disputing your numbers.  I'm trying to adjust for our circumstances. 

STM317 said:

In reply to 03Panther :

The math is the critical part. I think EVs are pretty great at a lot of things, but it seems like there are more individual factors involved that determine their true cost than there might be for an ICE so we shouldn't make assumptions about all of them in all situations. IF somebody lives in a location where gas is very expensive, solar or wind are financially viable, can charge at home or work, and the government actively supports their purchase, then EVs are pretty much a slam dunk IMO. But that's not everywhere. And they're still vehicles with suspensions and tires and things that wear and need replacement (sometimes faster than a similar ICE due to heavier weight and more torque).

  I can't calculate all the savings and every bodies situation. Even in our household I can't justify buying a new EV truck. ( as much as I'd like one) While my wife is going to buy a new Tesla. 

I'm as big an EV booster as anyone, now in my third EV since 2013, but the original assumptions are indeed pretty far off.

Things I've noticed cost more in an EV:

• Yearly registration (EV surcharge mentioned in a prior post)
• Tires (more frequent replacement due to the high torque and regen braking in my experience)
• battery replacement out of warranty (but that should be extremely rare for most)
• Depreciation for any non-Tesla EV

Things that are a wash:

• insurance
• fuel on the road - high speed chargers cost as much as gas
• repairs

Things that are less $ in an EV:

• fuel - mine gets the dollar equivalent of 200 mpg from my home
• yearly maintenance - I've not had to do any other than tires on any of my EVs
• Depreciation in a Tesla

In reply to frenchyd :

The cost per mile was calculated at 13.5 cents per kWh, which is the national average for electricity cost. The cost for the Model 3 was calculated by C&D in their long-term test based on actual usage. The cost for the Lightning was calculated from their stated mileage and battery capacity by someone that likes math better than I do. 

I would really like the Lightenings to work. My fuel expenses are close to $15k a year to run 3 service trucks. At those prices, the Lightenings will almost pay for itself in fuel savings. I just need them to build an extended cab with the 8' box instead of the crew cab and 5.5' box and then bump the range up to the 350-400 mile territory. 

I think the future is going to see some massive increases in the cost of electricity. If we want a better and more stable grid, we are going to have to pay for it with electrical costs. 

Keith Tanner said:

I do know that for my CA friends, there is no savings for charging at home due to higher electricity prices. They're all buying EVs because of their driving characteristics instead, not because of the math. The math is a bonus, if it works out. Most of them also run Lemons.

The price of gas certainly skews the math as it moves around. Just like buying a diesel for fuel economy reasons.

Looking at the EV surcharge as a function of gas tax only gets more confusing if the tax is a percentage or a set rate per gallon. 

 Like me friends have lost on the gas price guessing game often enough  to be very  skeptical. 
       Then a guy  I know in Southern California  who is looking seriously at a Lightening F150  but is delaying in anticipation of  an anticipated inheritance to pay to put solar on his roof. He can justify  the truck but not the solar panels.  Or can pay for the solar panels but only if he  can  keep his old truck and not have any serious expense occur while  paying for the panels. 
     

In reply to Toyman01 + Sized and :

Thanks, last I checked we are  a little more than 3 cents cheaper. 
 As far as gas prices, it seems like prices have gone up a buck a gallon over the last year.  That's about a 30% change and I don't see any force to lower prices.  In fact almost everything I read indicates increases.   
  If that happens EV's would really command a premium. I'm not sure there is the capacity to meet demands like that.  

Depreciation is a real issue with EVs.  As someone on here pointed out earlier this year, you could buy a Bolt brand new for $20k when the same car only 2 years prior stickered for $35k.  Used ones with 20k on them were as low as $12k.

Thats a unique case, but 1G leafs did not age well either. 

I wonder how quickly the EV value falls off a cliff as the battery ages.  There doesn't seem to be a ton of data on that.

Regarding the rest of the numbers, just put all your estimated costs, from initial purchase to the point at which you sell or dispose of the vehicle, in two columns, one for EV andone for ICE and add them up.  That's the logical financial evaluation.

STM317 said:

EVs are neat, but I think you're overstating some of the benefits here if we're being completely honest. EVs are WAY cleaner and more convenient than ICEs if you can charge at home and/or work. Over hundreds of thousands of miles though, I'm not sure they're likely to be significantly cheaper when compared to similar ICE models. And it could be worse if people go from driving relatively efficient ICEs to huge EV tanks because they think there's no downside to an EV.

How much do you drive that you're spending $70/mo on oil changes? That's $840/yr! Oil changes at my local dealer are about $50 these days, which would be about 17 oil changes for your annual $840 cost. If they're 5k miles in between changes, that's 85k miles per year. For a normal person that drives a normal vehicle about 13k annually, it's 2-3 oil changes each year which should cost much less than $70/mo. You're talking about $150 annually instead of $840 that most people would need to budget for oil changes per vehicle. That's $12.50/month.

 

Regen is cool, but EV brakes need servicing too, especially in rust prone areas. Tesla says calipers need to be cleaned and lubed every year or 12500 miles.

It cost C&D about $145 per brake service on their long term Model 3, and they replaced tires more frequently than a comparable ICE at $1k+ per set.

 

Public charging is often pretty similar to fuel prices, so you really only see consistent financial benefit if you can charge at home or work. However, states charging higher registration fees for EVs (to offset no fuel taxes) mostly cancel out any fuel savings from charging at home too:

I think at least in my state, the chance  of a EV fee added is  pretty slim given the politics of the state. 
 Realize at 18.9 per gallon Minnesota is in the lower gas tax area. So there is added room there to meet highway needs.  Plus as a net exporter of electricity the pressure wouldn't be there to  convince even fiscally conservative politicians  to add that tax. 
    We are a state with no smog inspections, and pretty modest  license costs. 
    As far as brake maintenance goes,  if you don't lube your pins you wind up replacing your brakes. This state loves applying road salt. So those who neglect brake maintenance  really pay the Piper. Doesn't matter if it's ICE or EV. 

I wonder how much of that Bolt price drop is due to changes in spec and or decrease in battery costs? And how much is the usual Big Three pricing strategy of setting a high MSRP and then bargaining down - comparing selling price vs MSRP will always give a bad comparison in a market where there is constantly $10k on the hood of an F150.

It's hard to evaluate how the Tesla depreciation has been, as the Model 3s showed up shortly before the market went into anomalous mode. Bolts and Model S are probably the only ones we have to go off, and the Model S resale probably suffered from the Model 3. We may have to wait a few more years for things to settle down to see how EVs hold their value in the long term.

ProDarwin said:

Depreciation is a real issue with EVs.  As someone on here pointed out earlier this year, you could buy a Bolt brand new for $20k when the same car only 2 years prior stickered for $35k.  Used ones with 20k on them were as low as $12k.

Thats a unique case, but 1G leafs did not age well either. 

I wonder how quickly the EV value falls off a cliff as the battery ages.  There doesn't seem to be a ton of data on that.

 

Regarding the rest of the numbers, just put all your estimated costs, from initial purchase to the point at which you sell or dispose of the vehicle, in two columns, one for EV andone for ICE and add them up.  That's the logical financial evaluation.

Depreciation only matters if you don't plan on keeping the vehicle it's whole life. I figure when I buy something I drive it until it's only worth scrap money.

 For my last one it was 20 years 379,000 miles.  Actuarial numbers give me 11 more years before I'm worm food or a Crispy critter.  Beyond that and my heirs deal with it. 
     Now I know beating the depreciation curve game is justification for those who just want something new or different. 
      The battery life is pretty decent.  Massively longer then the lead acid batteries you're used to.  
     The best guide I've got is a few years ago I contacted the Ford zone office for sales numbers on their Hybrid   battery sales. Other than those damaged in accidents. They had sold 1 in 10 years. 
     There is an article about when Tesla retired its Taxi Fleet, those batteries which had over 200,000 miles on them and most of it on "superchargers" ( the hardest way to charge a battery)  The projected life was still at 85%.  You should be able to find those numbers by googling them. 
 Realistically expect 20 years before an overnight charge will fail to cover the next days commute. 
    I'm not an expert but aren't those batteries the same principle as cell phones?   If so I got this cell phone in 2013 and use it at least 6 hours a day (mostly in the map function)   

frenchyd said:

Depreciation only matters if you don't plan on keeping the vehicle it's whole life. I figure when I buy something I drive it until it's only worth scrap money.

 For my last one it was 20 years 379,000 miles.  Actuarial numbers give me 11 more years before I'm worm food or a Crispy critter.  Beyond that and my heirs deal with it. 
     Now I know beating the depreciation curve game is justification for those who just want something new or different. 
      The battery life is pretty decent.  Massively longer then the lead acid batteries you're used to.  
     The best guide I've got is a few years ago I contacted the Ford zone office for sales numbers on their Hybrid   battery sales. Other than those damaged in accidents. They had sold 1 in 10 years. 
     There is an article about when Tesla retired its Taxi Fleet, those batteries which had over 200,000 miles on them and most of it on "superchargers" ( the hardest way to charge a battery)  The projected life was still at 85%.  You should be able to find those numbers by googling them. 
 Realistically expect 20 years before an overnight charge will fail to cover the next days commute. 
    I'm not an expert but aren't those batteries the same principle as cell phones?   If so I got this cell phone in 2013 and use it at least 6 hours a day (mostly in the map function)   

It absolutely matters even if you keep the vehicle your whole life.  If you dont care about the state of your finances you leave behind... no big deal, but not many of these other costs matter then either.

RE: Tesla batteries, be careful, because several of those taxi batteries were replaced under warranty, or due to another issue.  Its not as straightforward as a battery going 200k and having most of its life left.

Also, whats "dead" on one of those batteries?  Is this one of those cases where it shows an 86% charge, then and 85% charge, then 84%, then dead?  I know a lot of consumer electronics fail in that way.  Not necessarily those numbers, but the concept is you can't keep running one down to zero... there is a huge cliff at some point.

RustBeltSherpa said:

In reply to frenchyd :

The assumptions in the OP conveniently omit the maintenance surcharge (e.g. Tesla), insurance, and depreciation.

If a person is going to buy any new car, they will have to pay for insurance and there will be depreciation - doesn't matter if it's an EV or ICE.  I admit I don't know if insurance rates for EVs are higher or lower than for an ICE car, but I think they depreciate more slowly.