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trucke
trucke Dork
10/14/15 10:36 a.m.
rcutclif
rcutclif GRM+ Memberand Dork
10/14/15 10:41 a.m.

They're only 40 years behind Tesla.

captdownshift
captdownshift GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
10/14/15 10:46 a.m.

yeah I think most manufacturers will be there by 2030 in all honesty. Once 800+V charging stations are put into place the combustion engine will be a dinosaur.

bravenrace
bravenrace MegaDork
10/14/15 10:46 a.m.

I'm going to drive my '65 Mustang until I die or can't drive anymore. Me like ICE's. Everyone else can drive the electric crap while I have all the fun.

WOW Really Paul?
WOW Really Paul? MegaDork
10/14/15 11:53 a.m.

In reply to bravenrace:

I'll be right there with you. If only fuel prices dropped with actual demand, that'd make it even better.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
10/14/15 11:57 a.m.

In reply to bravenrace:

Who says you have to choose?

Electric Mustang record holder

pointofdeparture
pointofdeparture GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
10/14/15 12:01 p.m.

I think there will always be a place for internal combustion vehicles, but they will probably become similar to what steam engines are now: pretty much purely a hobbyist venture.

I, for one, am excited to see where electric propulsion technology goes in the next 20 years.

alfadriver
alfadriver UltimaDork
10/14/15 12:02 p.m.
trucke wrote: Toyota says no more combustion engined cars by 2050

compared to the headline

Toyota aims to nearly eliminate gasoline cars by 2050

Not sure how one extrapolates that word to mean zero.

And the article more points out that the non-combustion engine cars will be actually hybrids- just not purely fuel powered.

Lets not get ahead of what Toyota actually said.

BlueInGreen44
BlueInGreen44 HalfDork
10/14/15 12:03 p.m.

I'm confused. Does that mean they won't build hybrids that use an electric motor alongside an old fashioned gas engine? Or do hybrids not count as "Combustion engine vehicles."

alfadriver
alfadriver UltimaDork
10/14/15 12:17 p.m.

Do note- I do very much appreciate that they have such lofty goals.

And it brings up another of many things that super smart people here can make a lot of money on- HC based fuel cells.

I accept the possibility that a massive source of clean H2 can happen. But currently, hydrogen is made on an industrial level from hydrocarbon. And because of that, fuel cells do not exactly meet the cleanest emissions standards due to the trace amounts of HC's in the fuel. That can be fixed, but it is an issue for fuel cells.

But for Toyota to reach those goals- there's a lot of work that has to be done in the next 15 years. (again, massive job opportunities!)

bravenrace
bravenrace MegaDork
10/14/15 12:22 p.m.
SVreX wrote: In reply to bravenrace: Who says you have to choose? Electric Mustang record holder

Its not about the Mustang, it's about the engine. I like engines as much as I like cars, and I will never drive an electric car. Never.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
10/14/15 12:24 p.m.
WOW Really Paul? wrote: ...If only fuel prices dropped with actual demand, that'd make it even better.

Yup, the only reason they are so low is because of the huge economy of scale. Gas could get very pricey.

I think gas engines are fun, but I have no problem with retrofitting electric to an old car. Remember, they will still likely be much lighter then the modern cars. Bonus is, electric cars are technically air cooled... still never owned a liquid cooled car.

Tom_Spangler
Tom_Spangler GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
10/14/15 12:27 p.m.

I don't have a problem with a world where most people are getting from A to B in electric cars, as long as I still have the ability to have fun with ICE-powered vehicles. Maybe they will end up being like horses after the car took over; purely used for recreation and sport. I'd be fine with that.

Chris_V
Chris_V UberDork
10/14/15 12:28 p.m.
bravenrace wrote:
SVreX wrote: In reply to bravenrace: Who says you have to choose? Electric Mustang record holder
Its not about the Mustang, it's about the engine. I like engines as much as I like cars, and I will never drive an electric car. Never.

Hey, at least you can admit to being closed minded. EVs can definitely be fun, and provide all the G forces of driving fun you want, from blistering acceleration to all the cornering and handling that any other car can deliver. Cars are kinetic things, and caring that exploding dead dinosaurs help propel it rather than electrons is just silliness.

And if it's about working on it, we've been hearing that complaint ever since fuel injection was introduced.

trucke
trucke Dork
10/14/15 12:32 p.m.

The future is so predictable. I'll just leave this here.

HappyAndy
HappyAndy UberDork
10/14/15 12:36 p.m.
aircooled wrote:
WOW Really Paul? wrote: ...If only fuel prices dropped with actual demand, that'd make it even better.
Yup, the only reason they are so low is because of the huge economy of scale. Gas could get very pricey. I think gas engines are fun, but I have no problem with retrofitting electric to an old car. Remember, they will still likely be much lighter then the modern cars. Bonus is, electric cars are technically air cooled... still never owned a liquid cooled car.

Sorry to rain on your parade, but liquid cooled electric motors are a real thing. As EV automobiles become more common and complex I'm sure liquid cooling will show up.

For that matter, I've seen a Tesla drive unit and don't recall seeing any fins or vents, so it may be oil cooled through the gearbox.

bravenrace
bravenrace MegaDork
10/14/15 12:38 p.m.
Chris_V wrote:
bravenrace wrote:
SVreX wrote: In reply to bravenrace: Who says you have to choose? Electric Mustang record holder
Its not about the Mustang, it's about the engine. I like engines as much as I like cars, and I will never drive an electric car. Never.
Hey, at least you can admit to being closed minded. EVs can definitely be fun, and provide all the G forces of driving fun you want, from blistering acceleration to all the cornering and handling that any other car can deliver. Cars are kinetic things, and caring that exploding dead dinosaurs help propel it rather than electrons is just silliness. And if it's about working on it, we've been hearing that complaint ever since fuel injection was introduced.

You have your opinions, please allow me mine without putting words in my mouth or putting derogatory labels on me or the cars I drive, okay? I'm not anything close to closed minded. I just love internal combustion engines, and that isn't going to change. I don't say that with what you assumed to be ignorance of electric cars, as I keep up with that technology better than most.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
10/14/15 12:38 p.m.

Yeah I think ICE cars will be a niche product by 2030. Toyota's betting on hydrogen though, and unless someone invents fusion power which produces hydrogen a a byproduct that will never work.

Hydrogen cars are the worst of all worlds. The car has the up-front price of an EV, the fuel cost and fuel sourcing problems of an ICE, and energy transport and storage problems worse than anything that exists today

I won't miss ICEs, we'll lose the sound but the power (and eventually range) will be far better, packaging will be easier and maintenance will be vastly lower. It will be like going from steam to gas or diesel.

Bravenrace will be this guy:

Not that there's anything wrong with that

Edit: Or this guy:

Joe Gearin
Joe Gearin Associate Publisher
10/14/15 12:52 p.m.

Don't worry Bravenrace---you aren't alone

I for one am glad that I'll be dead before the mainstream completely changes from ICE to electric, hydrogen or whatever. I've grown up enjoying the sound of roaring engines, big lopey cams, and shrieking high rpm race-cars. If it weren't for the sound, I'm not sure I'd be a car enthusiast today. Sure I'd like cars and racing.....but would I be as obsessed as I am today? Would I dedicate my professional life to it? Not likely.

It's very hard for me to have any enthusiasm for silent cars or motorcycles--- or worse yet, cars that make engine sounds from their stereos.

I get it.... time marches on, technology will solve all of our problems ....yada yada yada.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
10/14/15 12:57 p.m.

The sound won't be gone completely, there's a legit way to get some back that's popular on performance EVs. Behold, gear noise:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/7zBFeAPSpbM

bravenrace
bravenrace MegaDork
10/14/15 1:01 p.m.

In reply to Joe Gearin:

Well Joe, I'm glad to hear that you think you'll be dead before the mainstream goes completely away from ICE's. I'm older than you, so that means I'll likely be gone too! But unlike many kids, my two boys are real gearheads, and like I do with society in general, I worry about what their automotive future will be like. One thing is for sure - They'll inherit a car or two with an ICE from me when I die.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
10/14/15 1:07 p.m.
HappyAndy wrote:
aircooled wrote:
WOW Really Paul? wrote: ...If only fuel prices dropped with actual demand, that'd make it even better.
Yup, the only reason they are so low is because of the huge economy of scale. Gas could get very pricey. I think gas engines are fun, but I have no problem with retrofitting electric to an old car. Remember, they will still likely be much lighter then the modern cars. Bonus is, electric cars are technically air cooled... still never owned a liquid cooled car.
Sorry to rain on your parade, but liquid cooled electric motors are a real thing. As EV automobiles become more common and complex I'm sure liquid cooling will show up. For that matter, I've seen a Tesla drive unit and don't recall seeing any fins or vents, so it may be oil cooled through the gearbox.

Well... at least oil cooled is not water cooled (kind of like a 911 ). I am suspicious that these high output electric motors (even though they are for more efficient waste heat wise then IC engines) have to have some sort of cooling. The one bonus of converting an AC car is it didn't have a radiator to begin with. E.g. a converted old Mustang would be kind of silly in a way, considering how much the radiator opening is part of the front end design and aero compromise.

As technology marches on, I am not sure that will increase the need for cooling (more power) or decrease it (more efficiency). I am pretty certain batteries will get lighter though, which makes conversions more practical / reasonable for old cars.

bravenrace
bravenrace MegaDork
10/14/15 1:09 p.m.

In reply to GameboyRMH:

That is kind of cool, but it will never (for me) replace this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQraQ5uwQhE

nderwater
nderwater PowerDork
10/14/15 1:21 p.m.

I don’t see an affordable EV replacing my M3 for track duty any time soon, but my Soul EV is a fantastic daily driver.

On the other hand, if you have deep pockets the landscape for electrification is pretty compelling:

bmw88rider
bmw88rider GRM+ Memberand Dork
10/14/15 1:41 p.m.

Well, if the motor isn't liquid cooled, the batteries most certainly are. Most of the modern battery packs are temperature regulated.

For the Mustang mentioned, It's here in Austin so I've seen it and talked to the team often on it. Right now it is an aircooled design but one of the limitations on run time and speed is heat management. The motor revolutions and gear heat affect it.

Electric powered vehicles have been around a really long time. Locomotives have been electric powered for over half a century. The only difference in general operations of a diesel electric locomotive and an EV car is the power source. The basic drive system is the same. The motors will be tuned for a different power band and torque curve on a car vs locomotive but it's still a motor, controller, and a power source.

The question is long term as we move to more and more battery dependence, will we have the resources to support it? Or long term are we trading one evil for another. I know even a progressive city like Austin have already said that they could not support a large scale electric transformation on the existing infrastructure. There is also concerns that we may not have enough lithium to support it.

Irregardless of what happens, I'll always have at least 1 ICE motor in my garage.

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