VW may not be Exxon but...

oldeskewltoy wrote: "Yet the whole probe was kicked off by a small advocacy group with experience in testing whether diesel cars were meeting their legal obligations — and those tests suggest VW isn’t alone, something U.S. regulators will now pursue."

You have to wonder if some of the suspicion about checking VW comes from the logic of "I kind of has to be true" since it sounds like VW was really kicking butt in terms of power and emissions over other manufacturers. You would think maybe they would figure it out and turn them in, but sounds like they might have started playing the same game.

It's like how you can tell if someone is cheating in a casino...

...they are winning.

Didn't GRM do an article that said, right there in the opening paragraph, "They have to be cheating, they're beating me and I'm cheating..."

Someone on another forum said: VW got over being associated with Hitler. If they can't get over this, then emissions fraud is literally worse than Hitler.

Jeez, you should read Jalopnik's report on the new Passat press launch. It was the saddest thing to happen in New York since Hurricane Sandy.

STM317 wrote:

ebonyandivory wrote: Does anyone know if the "fix" might be tuning or if hard-parts are going to need to be replaced?

Nearly every other diesel sold that meets tier 2 regulations uses SCR tech. For the cars that had SCR already (some Passats supposedly had SCR), I'd guess a calibration change can probably fix the issue. If they are required to retrofit vehicles, all of the vehicles included in the recall that didn't have SCR new, will have to have it added. Adding the SCR components will take some space though, so it will be interesting to see how it could be packaged. A loss of trunk or interior space may be required. Not to mention the time to engineer it properly, recertify it, and cost of the new hardware.

i would think its probably just in the tune. if they were able to pass the EPA test (which, from what ive seen while running emissions test cells at Cummins and having our engines certified, is pretty thorough) on the "cheater" tune then i would imagine they could just make the "cheater" tune permanent but, like many have said, maybe at the cost of reliability/mileage.

If VW is just going to make the cheater tune the fix, then I see a huge market for someone who can do an aftermarket load of the current tune. Just need to swap back and forth when selling or testing. Five million customers with a need.

I seriously wonder if the cars will still function on the cheater tune.

In other words, without major engine changes, does changing the maps to become emissions compliant just mean a loss of horsepower and fuel economy, or does it mean the thing is going to buck and surge like mad, break exhaust valves, bend rods, and ruin other major equipment? If it's the latter, then the cars will have to go through a major process to be register-able again, and there won't be any going back.

This will be fun to watch.

NOHOME wrote: What amazes me is the number of people who had to have known that this was in place; I mean, they had to test for it to work. Where do you even start and finish firing people?

Not that many people HAD to know - certainly nobody outside the ECU programming team. Theoretically it could have even been pulled off by a single programmer, but I highly doubt that just some low-level employees decided to do this.

Realistically we're probably looking at the whole ECU programming team, some people in engine design, and a chain of management going right up to the CEO.

In reply to tuna55:

If high NOx is the problem, then it's likely the "fix" is to richen the fuel, which would likely mean a reduction in MPG.

edizzle89 wrote:

STM317 wrote:

ebonyandivory wrote: Does anyone know if the "fix" might be tuning or if hard-parts are going to need to be replaced?

Nearly every other diesel sold that meets tier 2 regulations uses SCR tech. For the cars that had SCR already (some Passats supposedly had SCR), I'd guess a calibration change can probably fix the issue. If they are required to retrofit vehicles, all of the vehicles included in the recall that didn't have SCR new, will have to have it added. Adding the SCR components will take some space though, so it will be interesting to see how it could be packaged. A loss of trunk or interior space may be required. Not to mention the time to engineer it properly, recertify it, and cost of the new hardware.

i would think its probably just in the tune. if they were able to pass the EPA test (which, from what ive seen while running emissions test cells at Cummins and having our engines certified, is pretty thorough) on the "cheater" tune then i would imagine they could just make the "cheater" tune permanent but, like many have said, maybe at the cost of reliability/mileage.

You're right. That would certainly be the cheap/easy approach on the front end. I don't really see them being forced to retrofit some SCR hardware into millions of non-compliant vehicles at this point. But as you mention, there will likely be a penalty in fuel economy and or durability/longevity for the owners of the "fixed" cars. This may increase warranty costs, and drop resale values significantly on the back end which could still be pretty substantial deferred cost to VW, not to mention increasing the likelihood of litigation from peeved owners.

The old saying "if you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it again" kind of applies. It will be interesting to see what they come up with.

So what I've written here and thought all along might actually come true ie: no good way out of this.

Best case it gets fixed with a tune which addresses the emissions but kills mileage and/or performance.

Worst case is hard parts need to be put into hundreds of thousands of cars at a cost too high for VW to absorb.

Either way, resale is in the toilet.

STM317 wrote:

edizzle89 wrote:

STM317 wrote:

ebonyandivory wrote: Does anyone know if the "fix" might be tuning or if hard-parts are going to need to be replaced?

Nearly every other diesel sold that meets tier 2 regulations uses SCR tech. For the cars that had SCR already (some Passats supposedly had SCR), I'd guess a calibration change can probably fix the issue. If they are required to retrofit vehicles, all of the vehicles included in the recall that didn't have SCR new, will have to have it added. Adding the SCR components will take some space though, so it will be interesting to see how it could be packaged. A loss of trunk or interior space may be required. Not to mention the time to engineer it properly, recertify it, and cost of the new hardware.

i would think its probably just in the tune. if they were able to pass the EPA test (which, from what ive seen while running emissions test cells at Cummins and having our engines certified, is pretty thorough) on the "cheater" tune then i would imagine they could just make the "cheater" tune permanent but, like many have said, maybe at the cost of reliability/mileage.

You're right. That would certainly be the cheap/easy approach on the front end. I don't really see them being forced to retrofit some SCR hardware into millions of non-compliant vehicles at this point. But as you mention, there will likely be a penalty in fuel economy and or durability/longevity for the owners of the "fixed" cars. This may increase warranty costs, and drop resale values significantly on the back end which could still be pretty substantial deferred cost to VW, not to mention increasing the likelihood of litigation from peeved owners. The old saying "if you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it again" kind of applies. It will be interesting to see what they come up with.

I'm pretty sure that I didn't ever work for a company that approached it this way … more in line with "we don't time to do it right the first time, but we'll always find time (out of your off time) to redo it somewhere down the road" …

similar .. but not quite the same

If the value of these cars is going to implode, I would be tempted to grab one for the wife unit. We drive our cars until they are 10 years old and then scrap or give them away; resale would not be an issue.

The unanswered question is how is Ontario's bi-annual emissions test going to deal with these cars? The test only looks for codes and not emissions themselves. When you consider that the test is first and foremost a cash-grab for the Government, I cant see them creating a new test technology just for VW.

As to who knew and who did not, I have never known a secret to survive once more than one person knew about it.

Can you just walk in and fire the entire engine management team? First off, they were working under orders, secondly, you would be left without the ability to develop code for your product line, thirdly, all your talent would be on the market with a bad taste for VW and new employers who would love to hear more.

As I mentioned, I am thoroughly enjoying this. As to the evil-doer nature of the act, compared to what Wall Street and the NSA do to the world on a daily basis, this is like farting in polite company. Big berkeleying Deal. Buy VW stock, the world has a very short memory and the cars are not bad.

tuna55 wrote: I seriously wonder if the cars will still function on the cheater tune. In other words, without major engine changes, does changing the maps to become emissions compliant just mean a loss of horsepower and fuel economy, or does it mean the thing is going to buck and surge like mad, break exhaust valves, bend rods, and ruin other major equipment? If it's the latter, then the cars will have to go through a major process to be register-able again, and there won't be any going back. This will be fun to watch.

the way we would do EPA certs is, with a EPA rep sitting and watching the whole process, run them through a set of cycles that basically recreate real world driving situations, cold starts, hot starts, hot cycle with a 20 minute soak then another hot cycle, ect. basically just hours and hours of running though pretty much every driving situation, all while having the emissions checked on each cycle.

Granted we were using engine dynos and engines for much larger vehicles but im sure the process isnt much difference for passenger vehicles, they may just use a chassis dyno as there rolling road but the rest probably still applies. the engine still has to be more or less drivable for the testing, any major part failure probably wont get you a pass from the EPA, thats what makes me believe there isnt any need for a change in any hard parts

This is interesting.. What will this do to the used car values? Will they be registerable? Interesting...

I would imagine they will have to be 'fixed'. I can't imagine the EPA or CARB just letting it go. The magic tune must be detrimental somehow or they would have run it in the first place as the standard time. That means that buyers end up with a different car than they had before which is a super bad deal. Or VW adds hard parts, which still leaves the owners with a car different than they thought they bought, which is still bad. This is going to cost VW a lot of $$$$$.

mazdeuce wrote: I would imagine they will have to be 'fixed'. I can't imagine the EPA or CARB just letting it go. The magic tune must be detrimental somehow or they would have run it in the first place as the standard time. That means that buyers end up with a different car than they had before which is a super bad deal. Or VW adds hard parts, which still leaves the owners with a car different than they thought they bought, which is still bad. This is going to cost VW a lot of $$$$$.

right. Which means depreciation of cars into the toilet... How cheap will people dump newer cars now? That's what I'm interested in.... Can I take advantage of hysteria by buying a TDI touraeg for peanuts..

I live in area with no emissions testing, we can put a carbed big block in a new prius and it would be perfectly legal. So I know nothing of how these tests work. My question is, could it be such a thing as the car in "dirty tune" mode would still pass legal emissions level, ands its just not as eco friendly as originally advertised? Could that be the scenario, or is it so dirty it cant even pass for registration?

The only way that the consumer and taxpayer is NOT going to take this in the shorts if if the EPA decides to treat this like a speeding ticket and just fine the E36 M3 out of VW and leave well enough alone going forward. Not like the cars pump out cyanide.

Would be even better if the fine money were then given to a designated worthwhile cause like research into how Americans could make better beer.

People who have the cars keep them just as they are and they should be happy.

The slime-ball class action lawyers who are lining up can go crawl back into their caves.

If VW decides to duke it out with the EPA, the taxpayer starts paying for lawyers and it goes on forever with no resolution.

In reply to gearheadmb:

They won't pass with the dirty tune IF you measure at the tailpipe. If you just do an OBD port test, they pass. But now CARB knows they're dirty and probably won't accept just a OBD test on them. Or maybe anything going forward. That would be a serious pain.

I'd say 40x is pretty dirty (relatively speaking of course).

Because volcano:

Beside particulate (ash and other particles), volcanoes can release enormous quantities of gases, including the following pollutants: H2O water vapor CO2 carbon dioxide SO2 sulfur dioxide H2S hydrogen sulfide CO carbon monoxide HCl hydrogen chloride HF hydrogen flouride

Even non-explosive basaltic volcanoes (Hawaii, Iceland) can release damaging quantities of pollutants in the form of "vogâ", or volcanic smog. The Hawaii volcano observatory has recently issued warnings for sulfur dioxide emissions and restricted access to areas around Kilauea. The 1783 Icelandic basalt eruption resulted in emission of over 100 tons of SO2 in less than 8 months- killing humans, livestock and damaging crops in both Iceland and Europe. Gas emissions during the eruption of the Siberian traps may have caused the great Permian extinction 250 million years ago. Volcanic SO2 emissions can range up to 10 million tonnes per day.

...and the CEO is gone.

tuna55 wrote: ...without major engine changes, does changing the maps to become emissions compliant just mean a loss of horsepower and fuel economy, or does it mean the thing is going to buck and surge like mad, break exhaust valves, bend rods, and ruin other major equipment? If it's the latter, then the cars will have to go through a major process to be register-able again, and there won't be any going back. This will be fun to watch.

'Fixing' the cars by having them run the testing mode tune full time shouldn't damage the driveline any, but the cars will absolutely sacrifice some fuel economy and performance. Both trade-offs will anger the owners and result in class action lawsuits.

Just last year Hyundai/Kia spent $395 million on a settlement with vehicle owners after they were forced to downgrade the fuel economy ratings on their cars.

I own one of the dirty diesels from VW - 2012 Jetta TDI. I bought it over the Cruze because I didn't have to use AdBlue. will be a real bummer if I am not left with a car that requires it or has a software update that is so restrictive it cuts the power and MPG.

Be interesting to see how this all plays out, I am honestly hoping for a buy back at this point.

The dominos continue to fall...

Diesel test report cites emissions gaps at other automakers

A European environmental group issued a report earlier this month that suggested other automakers in addition to Volkswagen and Audi may use software or other technology to enable their diesel vehicles to perform better in emissions testing than in actual, on-road driving.

Transport & Environment says ICCT tests show clear discrepancies between laboratory emissions and real-world performance for several automakers including BMW, Mercedes-Benz and General Motors’ Opel unit. It argued that these manufacturers might also employ similar kinds of software in Europe that VW has allegedly admitted to using in the U.S.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20150922/OEM06/150929954/diesel-test-report-cites-emissions-gaps-at-other-automakers

http://www.theicct.org/nox-control-technologies-euro-6-diesel-passenger-cars

"...results show some automakers meeting diesel NOx emissions standards under more realistic driving conditions, while others lag badly."

"The results indicate that the current NEDC [European] testing framework allows a large discrepancy between the actual, on-road NOX emissions and the emission certification tests, and it is therefore insufficient to address air quality problems related to NOX."

Quoted from their white paper: http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_NOx-control-tech_revised%2009152015.pdf