It's only reasonable to ask the other constraints, though I was half hoping to ask without providing those just to see what shakes out, since I know I get myself in the same ruts with the way I think about the constraints...
The Rav4 is a prescient pick. My wife has a minor car crush on them ever since we looked at one used way back right before we bought the '12 WRX and all we knew was that we wanted more doors than her Civic coupe. Are you really seeing those kinds of figures on a non-hybrid Rav4? That really is right up there with the Mini...
Lemme see if I can address some of what's above here. Apologies for the sense that I've withheld a lot of really pertinent info. It was just a stab:
- Fun? For variable values of fun. We enjoy the fact that the Mini is pleasant to drive, but let's face it, no modern appliance-car is going to be as much fun as the old and/or modified stuff I have rotating through, and modern cars are getting remarkably good at not sucking to drive. It doesn't need to be "sporty" but I don't want it to hit me over the head with the idea that the enjoyment of driving has been swapped out for my other needs.
- Manual necessary? No, and I think my wife would prefer an auto this go-round. But I really hate the automatics that I hate. I like VW's DSG, I hated the Hyundai Elantra slushy I test drove several years ago, I like the E9x BMW auto fine (but hate whatever they put in the contemporary Minis; ours is manual. I *think* the E9x unit is a good torque converter auto and the Mini is a bad automanual?). I think auto of some variety is most likely, but it's totally case by case.
- The Sportwagen is the perfect car for us, or nearly. We're still waiting for rage equalization between the advent of dieselgate and the miscellaneous bad behaviors of other mfrs to get us back to where we're ready to drive a VW. I know I've said it here before, but we literally were headed to the dealership for a TDI Sportwagen the nearest weekend when it all went sideways. That's the weekend we ordered the Mini instead.
- IIRC the Mazda5 isn't there for MPG, and while we've only driven the earlier body style, it felt... weird. We had it as a rental out of SFO and it just felt like it had crazy rear-end bump-steer or something. Scrub? I mean, I'm sure as a modern, Mazda-built vehicle it didn't actually have any genuine weirdness, but it *felt* like every time you got to the edge of a freeway wheel rut like that side of the car was being jacked up and tossed the other direction. It created a really tiring lateral jostling.
- The Model 3 and Model Y have one common problem, which is that right now, if we do sort of get impatient and rush the car swap, it's not a great time to upgrade that far. We're both doing Big Career Upheaval stuff, and moving nearly-laterally from our 4 year old Mini feels okay, but jumping to a car that costs $40k over what's left of the Mini's value is something we should probably defer 'til we're more settled in. Which honest, isn't so far off that it might not be the real answer. I figure two years from now that's likely to be dandy. So in some ways, I'm being silly and looking for relatively cheap entertainmenst before we take a deep breath and make that leap.
With all that blithering in mind, I think we could move not-far-from-laterally into a slightly newer/lower-mileage Sportwagen without feeling crazy. We've talked a little about whether we're ready to accept that VW is just another giant group which will do whatever it can to make money, and if that occasionally means breaking the law, that's just the way they all play the game. There are no certified humane cars.
I have half a mind to plead for the notion that we give ourselves a 2-3 year vacation from trying to drive the most efficient thing available and just drive a more thoroughly depreciated BMW or Volvo wagon 'til we're ready for a Model 3 or Y. The 3 is much more appealing, the Y nods to fact that a hatch/wagon always wins for carrying random stuff, which is a great trait in the DD.
Weird thing: I keep seeing Grand Caravans around and thinking, in this era of blobby SUVs, that they look like such tidy boxes. Ian F's good words about his help. It'd be great for mountain biking. I love having a changing room that isn't a forestry toilet, but the old Dajiban wasn't much fun driving there. But without something like the Pacifica's plug-in hybrid thing, they're not in the ballpark efficiency-wise.
So, now that I've spilled the beans on all my irrational and unreasonable constraints, what else am I not thinking of? Or how am I thinking of my constraints wrong? Because I'm pretty sure there's an element of that as well.
Another irrelevance due to timing, but I sure wonder what kind of MPGs we'll see form the 1.5L Bronco Sport.