30% fewere new drivers...Whats the ripple effect going to be?

I have a niece and nephew who grew up very close to downtown Toronto. Neither had a car until recently and they're 31 and 30 ,respectively. My niece just bought her first car around Christmas. She bought a brand new Mazda3. She had no need for a vehicle until she moved to a new job in an area with no real public transportation. Until now a car was just an appliance to her. If you don't need a stove , you don't bother buying one. The encouraging thing is that since buying it she realizes what she's been missing. She's all googoo over the electronics and all the stuff I couldn't give a darn about.She'll never be an enthusiast though.
My nephew still doesn't possess a car driver's licence, just a motorcycle one. In summer he bops around Toronto on a Royal Enfield single of all things, and in the winter rides a mountain bike.
My sons both drive, but like their cousins the cars are appliances to be used when needed. One has yet to buy his own car as it's hard to find a decent paying job and afford a nice car.It will be interesting to see if that changes as they accumulate more disposable income. My sons have certainly been exposed to the car bug through my years of autocrossing and racing. We'll see.

In reply to alfadriver:

Only somewhat joking, but then again, I was raised in a rural setting and taught to not resort to depending upon others. I also walked a lot just to go places I couldn't get a ride to.
I would love to see a percentage of people in the same age group that think the government should provide them with everything. I'll almost bet it is a similar percentage. Me personally, I'll continue to be self reliant, continue to enjoy my personal freedom to up and leave my immediate area without any planning of "how am I going to get somewhere" Its no small secret that my generation is full of idiots anyways.

In reply to madmallard:

I would argue the opposite. I would more envision a car market based off the current cell phone craze. People would buy the basic architecture of the car, and roll that large expense into a payment/service plan, and every six months or more often, Apple Cars comes out with an all new "version" thats just a skin, and that gets rolled up in the Katamari ball of debt.

This season everyone's wearing hatchbacks in teal!

that....

is a very interesting idea.

however people already do that without the lure of any service plan for use of the vehicle. thats because there are costs to car ownership beyond the control of the car maker, so it doesnt quite match up to the cellphone example. ;p

could you imagine the equivalent of a timing belt job needed to keep using a cellphone?

Fair point, but looking at the long term, most EVs are unlikely to need a timing belt change. The majority of repairs will be plug and play, not test and tune. Now imagine the boon to auto-marketers with gestalt operating systems in cars on a similar level to Android/Apple. Your car operates independently of your input, so planned obsolescence could take the form of a car that will no longer take the most direct route to your destination. Perhaps we'll see the advent of unwilling flash mobs as "North Korea" hacks every Hyundai and parks the owners near a cornfield in Iowa...

I predict a drop in the number of teenage pregnancies. Or the all the babies will look like the boy down the street with the Camero.

Just opened my copy of Classic Motorsports and the editorial just so happens to address this subject as it applies to the Classic Car Hobby. Not very optimistic.

Cars are, and have always been about convenience. You buy one when there is a real or perceived need for one. Phones have replaced the social interaction that cars/the mall provided for youth. Very few college campuses require the use of a car. This pushes car ownership out to the work/commute phase of life.
I want to say that this means that people will make more logical/grown up decisions about cars. They'll buy cars based on their commuting needs rather than the dream that they'll someday drive the AlCan.

Appleseed wrote: I think used car prices will rise. Remember when a $500 car was $500? Then Cash for Clunkers came and wiped out a significant portion of them. Now a $500 car is $1,000.

I think that's invalid. Cash for Clunkers was 2009, it's now 2015. That's 5 going on 6 years ago. I bet a significant number of new cars bought through CFC are now off the road. And most things that were in the $4-$10K category back then are in the $0-$3K category now. I don't buy it that we are still feeling the effects that much.

Adrian_Thompson wrote:

Appleseed wrote: I think used car prices will rise. Remember when a $500 car was $500? Then Cash for Clunkers came and wiped out a significant portion of them. Now a $500 car is $1,000.

I think that's invalid. Cash for Clunkers was 2009, it's now 2015. That's 5 going on 6 years ago. I bet a significant number of new cars bought through CFC are now off the road. And most things that were in the $4-$10K category back then are in the $0-$3K category now. I don't buy it that we are still feeling the effects that much.

But there is the fact that more people are graduating from college and finding (for whatever reason, either the economy or because they got a dumb music degree like yours truly) they can't find a good job right away that will let them afford a nice new car. More people in need of cheap wheels will drive beater prices up.

I think the biggest hit will be in taxes. If we keep driving, we are going to have to make up for the 30% loss in federal, state and local taxes being currently paid not only through gas, but also car sales, plates, DL's, etc. I too believe it will be based on mileage driven, and I think the kind of car you drive will have different taxation given to it.

My personal belief is that eventually driving will be seen something only the rich will do as more and more younger people continue away from driving themselves. I do think however this will be years down the road.

Currently I have a 28yo nephew who not only doesn't drive, but expects people to drive him to and from work. He's a college grad too, but has zero interest in driving. According to him, it would interfere with his ability to drink and buy electronics if he spent too much on a car.

ripple effect......

change in taxation... MOSTLY do to lobbying, but partially do to declining drivers, and far more efficient automobiles, legislatures are moving from a gas tax, to a miles used tax.

screw the little guy.....

NOHOME wrote: ...Will insurance companies have to hike their rates to maintain the bottom line with fewer drivers?...

Insurance doesn't really work that way (unless the numbers got VERY small). If anything, the rates may go down with fewer high risk younger drivers on the road.

Good luck going through life without a license if you don't live your life a well developed Urban area (e.g. Manhattan, Boston). Self-driving cars might save them in time...

Here's a thought on self driving cars...

They will INCREASE the presence of undocumented workers in the workplace.

I work for a company that has a lot of Mexicans, many of whom can't get driver's licenses. We pay chauffeurs to drive them.

A driverless vehicle would eliminate the need for chauffeurs, but also make undocumented workers more mobile and more able to get to any destination, including jobs.

This will also mean increased downward pressure on American workers.

Also note that this would also apply to ANYONE who can't get a license, or doesn't have access to a vehicle.

DUI convictions, drug use, convicted felons, reckless driving convictions, elderly workers, incapacitated due to disease, mental or physical, failing to pay child support, etc.

There are a lot of ways this could invite people into the workforce who do not improve the quality of the workforce, and which will lower the salaries for given jobs.

I am not suggesting a driver's license is necessary to be a good worker, but I am suggesting that increased capabilities to transport workers with various issues to the job site will further erode workforce quality and worker value.

Part of my value to my employer is my ability to manage money, protect my credit worthiness, my various licenses and professional creds, security clearances, etc. If my employer could hire people without some of those things to do certain jobs, he would, and he would fire me and pay them less.

Another bit on self driving cars based on my experience in the aviation end of things--

If/should self driving cars start rolling out, expect a call for more rigorous medical standards to drive your own vehicle. This call will come from the public ("Think of the children!"), the auto insurance industry, and rapidly develop a constituency in the medical establishment that sees it as a source of cash income, as health insurance would probably not cover this.

All of this will add cost to continuing to drive your own vehicle, making it that much more of a rich man's activity.

aircooled wrote:

NOHOME wrote: ...Will insurance companies have to hike their rates to maintain the bottom line with fewer drivers?...

Insurance doesn't really work that way (unless the numbers got VERY small). If anything, the rates may go down with fewer high risk younger drivers on the road. Good luck going through life without a license if you don't live your life a well developed Urban area (e.g. Manhattan, Boston). Self-driving cars might save them in time...

Here is the thing, if you live in Toronto or Montreal, and work in the city, it is actually possible to spend the winter never having to go outside. It is all underground and connected by subway. Even at the cheapest level, NOT having a car is worth $35,000 in your pocket over 5 years.

I am not saying that the private car is going away any time soon, but they are undergoing a generational transformation where they are now grudge buys rather than objects of desire.