30% fewere new drivers...Whats the ripple effect going to be?

Ever since my daughter informed me that driving was not a part of her future, I have been intrigued by the trend of declining teen driving.

Ignoring the reasons of why there has been a 30% decline over the last ten years, I am curious about the ripple effects this will have?

Will insurance companies have to hike their rates to maintain the bottom line with fewer drivers?

What happens to the used car market? Mechanic trade?

Will the lack of tax and license revenue impact the states?

At what point does it become an issue for the car companies?

Since these non-drivers must rely on transportation methods that only exist in urban areas, does this signal a migration to densely populated urban areas?

I say good luck to them.

There are very few cities that they can not have a car in. Most of them will grow up and see what a PITA it is not to have a car and that living in the city is not cheap especially when you have to limit your job choices to what is near the public transport.

A buddy of mine had his son say the same thing and did it for a couple years or so and then he got tired of being his taxi. He told his son it's fine not to drive but he can't be his taxi anymore. 2 months later, His son had his license and his own car.

Read this last week. Seems to apply to the topic.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/business/young-and-carless/

As an independent automotive service provider, I'm concerned about the future of my industry from various directions. On the other hand, business has never been better.

it's funny. All my life I have had fun to drive cars and never understood why people didn't like to drive.. then I was given my 2004 Malibu.. If this car represents what most people own and drive, I can understand why people are loathe to get behind the wheel. While not a "bad car" per say.. it is just awful. Sloppy numb steering, oversensitive brakes (and that rattlebox ABS) wants to go straight no matter what the steering angle (if you can feel what angle the front wheel are at through the numb wheel) and seats that are neither comfy or not.. It is the very definition of "soulless appliance" and I see an awful lot of them around.

On a less practical layer, this is also the generation that grew up not knowing how to fail.. learning how to drive is probably one of the biggest responsibilities any of us will ever learn.. and I am not sure that a lot of them are mentally ready to shoulder it

less traffic.

Its sad to see them not have an interest in driving. We need more enthusiasts to keep the hobby alive. The scary thing is that these are the people who will be making the laws in the future. If they don't like cars, they will pass more anti-car laws...(even stricter emission laws, congestion regs, etc)

Gearheadotaku wrote: Its sad to see them not have an interest in driving. We need more enthusiasts to keep the hobby alive. The scary thing is that these are the people who will be making the laws in the future. If they don't like cars, they will pass more anti-car laws...(even stricter emission laws, congestion regs, etc)

Like what the gun industry is going through right now?

In reply to rcutclif:

There's a difference, though.

While not everyone needs a gun, everyone needs personal transportation.

As for the laws suggested, I have yet to see emissions laws have a real impact on car sales numbers. They still match population growth pretty closely. Congestion laws do make sense- if an area is aready full of cars, having more drivers isn't going to make that better, and more roads may not be an option.

The key part, though, is that everyone needs some kind of transportation option. So cars will be around for a long time. Maybe more will be group owned, maybe we will see more options of mass transportation. Lots of things up in the air. But the need of moving a person from A to B will never go away, and right now, even in the areas that have the best mass transportation in the world, the car is one of the leading options.

That's not going to change any time soon.

Bit of self moderating on the thread here..bear with me....

I mentioned from the onset that I could care less why they stopped. Or what tough love methods we might use to force them to drive. I know the arguments pro and con for why the trend started and why it is more likely than not to continue.

The premise of this thread was to explore what ripple effects we might foresee in our lifetime if the trend continues on the current slope?

"Less traffic" is a simple observation, but what does that mean as far as trickle down effects? Who pays for the roads now? Will gasoline be cheaper due to supply and demand or more expensive due to road tax loading to compensate?

Mass transit will continue to take over the roads and make it more inconvenient for drivers. I berkeleying HATE the trolley they've installed in MN.

Interesting. Is this a direct result of a generation that couldn't care less about real world personal responsibility?

I blame the twittergrams...

Seriously though, someone above mentioned the generation that "Grew up not knowing how to fail." As someone who works daily with the youth of middle class America I think that's bang on correct.

I think of the threads here where we all talk about our first car and the memories associated with them: independence, first responsibilities etc. Learning to drive and the first car was an exciting time in my life. It's sad to think that might be fading from our culture.

To stay on topic:

I don't see the used car market going away anytime soon though. Maybe more people will start selling their old cars instead of giving them to their offspring to be driven into the ground and/or wrecked?

I didn't give my kids a choice about driving. I refused to be their personal taxi and it didn't take them long to figure it out.

This country is still too spread out for most people to not have transportation. I see it as a non issue. They might start driving later in life, but the majority of them will drive if they want to go places and do things.

Additional: I see a trend of young people who don't learn to drive in highschool but eventually do end up getting there driving license later after they graduate highschool and have to get to a job or college classes.

I'm sure this will change insurance trends but I don't know much about how that works so I can't speculate how.

>Whats the ripple effect going to be?

That 30% will suddenly want to go somewhere without tracks, take the bus exactly once and then they will buy a car. The only real effect it will have is that 25 year olds will be worse at driving than they are now because of lack of experience.

BlueInGreen44 wrote: Interesting. Is this a direct result of a generation that couldn't care less about real world personal responsibility? I blame the twittergrams... Seriously though, someone above mentioned the generation that "Grew up not knowing how to fail." As someone who works daily with the youth of middle class America I think that's bang on correct. I think of the threads here where we all talk about our first car and the memories associated with them: independence, first responsibilities etc. Learning to drive and the first car was an exciting time in my life. It's sad to think that might be fading from our culture. To stay on topic: I don't see the used car market going away anytime soon though. Maybe more people will start selling their old cars instead of giving them to their offspring to be driven into the ground and/or wrecked?

That is an interesting tangent on it- the whole lack of personal responsibility and this trend towards helicopter parenting and everyone gets a trophy, I never even thought it would extend to kids getting personal taxis til they were 30. I know a few people that choose not to drive. They offer me cash to drive them places (cool) or beer (also cool) or they hop a cab or bus. Or they're amish. Other than that, they make do. My kid- he will have a drivers license. What he chooses to do after that, is up to him. But my car does not say "Gibson free taxi on it". He's on the beer plan like everyone else if that's the route he wants to take.

I want more mass transit.

It also may make more companies understanding of the idea that they can't expect their entire staff to commute 50 miles back and forth to work today. We've got a lot of large employers who are still attached to the idea of plopping a massive office out in the sticks because property is cheap, and not only will the lower the wages of employees, but they get less productivity because the workforce is so effin tired of the commute.

I hate our car-based infrastructure, personally. I know it will never go away, but I'd like to see us go a different direction.

mndsm wrote: my car does not say "Gibson free taxi on it".

This is the reality for my kids. I do think they are eager to drive but if they chose not to and were of age... guess who better find a way to get to swim practice at 4:45am. Or to basketball practice. Or to anywhere I'm not on my way to. Daddy is done with that E36 M3. I'm fine with them borrowing a car until they can afford one but I am not fine with them not knowing how to use it.

PHeller wrote: I hate our car-based infrastructure, personally. I know it will never go away, but I'd like to see us go a different direction.

This. I enjoy my car and I enjoy owning a car (or two, or three) but there has got to be a more efficient/safe way to get everyone to work and back.

Well I'm glad this is focusing on the effect because we've gone through the causes a hundred times before.

Insurance prices probably won't change much - less drivers on the road means a smaller pool of customers but also lower risk. Further down the road, autonomous cars will turn car insurance into a cottage industry compared to what it is today.

It's hard to tell what will happen to used car prices. On one hand, there will be less young people buying used cars, on the other hand, in a worse economy more people are going to be seeking used cars and will be less likely to sell their new cars just because they aren't shiny and stylish anymore.

Mechanics are under a much greater threat from EV adoption than anything else, by far. An EV powertrain is virtually maintenance-free and practically indestructible.

Any tax problems will be fixed with a quick pen stroke, and don't forget that public transportation costs money too.

Car companies will obviously have to downsize if there is less demand for cars.

There will have to be a migration to densely-populated urban areas if these people want to live without any kind of personal transportation. If it works, big cities will grow into even bigger cities.

BlueInGreen44 wrote:

PHeller wrote: I hate our car-based infrastructure, personally. I know it will never go away, but I'd like to see us go a different direction.

This. I enjoy my car and I enjoy owning a car (or two, or three) but there has got to be a more efficient/safe way to get everyone to work and back.

This. There's little to no fun to be had commuting in a car, but plenty of expense. I know people who like horses but they don't want to ride one to work every day.

I'm not understanding...

It says fewer teen drivers, not more non-drivers.

The teens I know are just delaying. They still end up driving.

If you take them out of the insurance pool, that shouldn't push rates up. It should push them DOWN (fewer high risk drivers).

I don't even think it means less traffic at any rate that can be measured.

Teen drivers frequently drive for pleasure, convenience, or to get to a local after-school job. They don't commute long distances during rush hour.

They don't create more traffic if they don't drive during the traffic hours.

I regret that the GPS enabled, self driving hybrid, with a tax (charge) per mile driven is likely the future.
This also plays right into those who want no personal responsibility.

We are unhappy now that the manual trans is going away. Just wait for the steering wheel and pedals to go away too.

GameboyRMH wrote: Mechanics are under a much greater threat from EV adoption than anything else, by far. An EV powertrain is virtually maintenance-free and practically indestructible.

Disagree. There will still be a demand for tire installation. A/C, Power Steering, Recharging system, window motor, suspension, transmission and autobody repair. If anything some of these issues may be easier to fix as they will be automatically diagnosed through a diagnostic software. Plug in, find problem, replace part.

I do however think that service shops will charge more labor as they will no longer get big jobs like headgasket or waterpump replacement.

We've still got at least 30-40 years before the ICE is anything less than the dominant mode of transportation.

GameboyRMH wrote: There will have to be a migration to densely-populated urban areas if these people want to live without any kind of personal transportation. If it works, big cities will grow into even bigger cities.

Hopefully, however, they will grow into smarter cities. The hopes would be that not only would the urban space become more enjoyable, safer, etc, but if you lived out in the country you'd only drive to a train station which would take you along the commercial corridors.

I'm not quite sure yet if the future will mean more efficient buses with more bus lanes, less stop lights or more trains. I do know that the good roads will never disappear, you'll just need a rally car to drive them.

SVreX wrote: I'm not understanding... It says fewer teen drivers, not more non-drivers. The teens I know are just delaying. They still end up driving.

I know that even between me and my parents generation, they are completely comfortable with a 40-60 minute commute.

I don't think the next generation will feel that way.