Amazon HQ2. Where does it end up?

So, Amazon has narrowed the possible location of it's multi-billion dollar second headquarters from over 200 locations to 20.  Obviously, this is likely to have a huge economic impact on whatever region it lands in. An enterprising individual could probably make some nice money if they had a decent idea of where it might end up, so lets play real estate mogul and talk about where we think it will be.

Amazon has said they're looking for a business friendly environment in an urban core with 1 million people or more. They want it to be close to a major airport, as well as colleges that could provide some of the prospective 50,000 employees. They're looking for a site that is large enough to provide up to 8 million sq ft of office space, and being near major traffic arteries is a must. Mass transit is a plus as well.

If you live in one of the finalist cities, let me hear about why you think your city should be the winner, and hopefully some reasons why it may not as well.

The number of municipalities that have lined up to give away as much as they can to Amazon is scary.  I wouldn't want my city to have anything to do with it.

I feel sorry for whichever city gets hit by the nuclear gentrification bomb:

https://www.geekwire.com/2017/careful-wish-amazon-suitors-lot-will-change-tech-giant-city/

Not that the people working there are likely to particularly enjoy it either:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-worst-parts-about-working-at-amazon-according-to-employees-2015-8

I expect it's going to be one of the usual suspects on the list (Austin/Boston/NYC, not in any particular order) with Toronto as the only possible "surprise."

I'm just hoping it's not Pittsburgh, we really don't need the extra congestion on the roads such a campus would provide. Plus once you get out of the city, the level of technology and tech adoption drops off like the curve of a motor popping on a dyno. 

I'll lead with my city, Indianapolis, as an example. (admittedly, a bit of a dark horse)

Pros:

Located in a very stable, business friendly state with low taxes.

Geographically centered in the US, with access to several major highways. It's called "the Crossroads of America" for a reason. Located less than a day's drive from Chicago, Cincinnati, Louisville, Columbus Ohio, Nashville and St.Louis.

 Multiple colleges within an hour's drive. Indiana University,  and Purdue University would be the biggest draws for tech and  business grads. They also have a joint campus in the heart of Indianapolis. Smaller schools like Ball State and U of I are also worth mentioning.

Highly regarded international airport 10 minutes from the downtown core with FedEx's second largest hub.

Shovel ready site in the middle of downtown that more than meets the size needs. If they want to be in a city, there aren't going to be many other options this large for this cheap, located so close to the city core.

Cheap real estate for future expansion and for employees.

Developing a growing tech industry. Salesforce has a substantial presence already, but they're not the only game in town.

Used to hosting large conventions and sporting events

Developing social scene. It's not Austin, or Nashville but there's a lot to do now with pro sports teams, tons of museums, nationally recognized restaurants etc.

Downtown is super walkable, even in cold weather. We hosted the Super Bowl in snowy February and people couldn't get over how easy it was to move around on foot without even going outdoors.

Multiple "fulfillment centers" within a short drive.

Cons:

Politically, Indianapolis is a "blue" area trapped within a very "red" state. If you'll allow me to sterotype, most young tech workers that I know are more blue than red, so that may be a hurdle. The RFRA law authored by the former Governor was not popular with large businesses in the state but hasn't been mentioned lately.

Mass transit is way behind. The bus network is just ok. They're trying to introduce some high speed bus lines, but it may not be enough compared to larger cities. No trains or the like exist.

The airport is great, but it's currently lacking major direct flights to a lot of European cities. That seems like something that an airline could add pretty easily, but it's worth mentioning.

May not be far enough East to merit strong consideration.

This is the kind of thing I'm talking about.  

http://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-headquarters-hq2-city-incentives-taxes-2017-11

Who ever gets them can keep them.

I live in Atlanta but our public transpiration is so useless I doubt we will win. Unless they somehow stick the HQ in the old GM Doraville plant location, getting to/from any large building via MARTA is impossible. The old AutoTrader HQ shared a parking lot with a MARTA station and I still drove to work because it was quicker.

I already told my wife I'd apply if we get it (I'm self employed, but I could be swayed by benefits). It will wreck the housing market for sure and set the gentrification train on warp 9 in town.

In reply to pres589 :

Right, but individually, none of us can do anything about that. Instead of complaining about it, some will be able to capitalize on the opportunities that it will provide. If it's going to come to my city I'd much rather position myself to succeed than wait and do nothing and just be mad about it.

pres589 said:

The number of municipalities that have lined up to give away as much as they can to Amazon is scary.  I wouldn't want my city to have anything to do with it.

That's exactly how I feel. I don't care where it ends up I just don't want it here. The benefits are... shall we say nebulous at best and a losing proposition at worst.

All I can think of is how Walmart gained a reputation for going in, soliciting bids and incentives to open stores, using massive resources in the area, then moving the stores once the incentives expired leaving a trail of blight and financial hurt behind them. I don't see Amazon any differently and I'm glad the Lehigh Valley isn't on that list.

So you'd like to see your city incur costs as you mentioned in trying to deal with the increased demands in infrastructure that an Amazon HQ would bring, while also giving a lot of the tax money that such an organization would bring back to Amazon, who isn't really contributing much for your troubles.

It's like how the Olympics are a city killer, and you're hoping it happens in Indy?

I kind of see it going somewhere without rivers to flood or winters to disrupt operations too badly, so nothing North of the Mason Dixon.  Atlanta seems like a good choice from that perspective.  

I am glad this area was never in the running, though I think some parts of Northern NJ are

In reply to pres589 :

Not once did I say that I hoped it would happen, or wanted it to come to my city. I appreciate the outlook. But I accept that if it's going to come here, there's nothing that I can do about it. If I'm able to plan ahead, and get things setup to act, then I may be able to capitalize on it. If it's going to wreck my city no matter what, I'd like to at least be set up to profit from it. I'm really trying to learn enough about the other cities to estimate the chances of HQ2 ending up here, or somewhere else so that I can be ready.

A lot of times, the difference between good change and bad change lies in your head, and if you were able to anticipate it or not.

I'm picking Philly as it's closest to where I suggested that it land prior to the narrowing of the list, Wilmington, DE. The logistics of having a port and rail access up the 95 corridor, universities, history, diversity, museums. 

As others have said, I'm glad it's not us. We have been averaging 7 people a day moving the the Charleston area. It has really screwed up the vibe of the entire city, and the money just isn't worth it to me. Amazon would be the death knell. I'd be packing up and leaving it to the vultures. 

Yeah okay.  I'm not interested in grovelling and giving away the money needed to support them showing up.  Why you want to give up tax revenues and pick up increased costs, I don't understand, so this thread probably just isn't "for me".

My wife works at an Amazon Fulfillment center.  I don't see why people bitch about working for Amazon.

She gets paid above what she should earn given her skillset, has decent benefits, and flexible time off.

In reply to captdownshift :

I'm actually sort of amazed the Lehigh Valley didn't make it into the final grouping (probably not a large enough incentive package.) LVIA is putting in a terminal for them and there's two huge fulfillment facilities here, quick access to New York and Philadelphia, and several pretty good colleges in the immediate area. I'm not complaining, someone else can deal with them.

Side note: The word "Incentive" was mentioned 21 times in the 7 page RFP. I wonder if it was important to them?

In reply to Toyman01 :

Only 7 a day? That doesn't seem like you could even notice that amount...

m4ff3w said:

My wife works at an Amazon Fulfillment center.  I don't see why people bitch about working for Amazon.

She gets paid above what she should earn given her skillset, has decent benefits, and flexible time off.

From the local paper.

I also don't believe in begging and groveling before large corporations. Especially with how arcane the math can be to determine if your municipality is actually going to benefit before they up and move when the tax/incentive package expires.

It really is like the Olympics just stretched out over a longer period of time.

In reply to m4ff3w :

I don't think it's the working for them that is the problem. It's the affect they will have on any city that attracts their HQ. Not all of those affects are positive. 

mad_machine said:

I am glad this area was never in the running, though I think some parts of Northern NJ are

Don't hold your breath.  "Philadelphia" could also mean "South Jersey"...

I'm torn on the idea... while part of me thinks Philly would be a good fit for Amazon, I also agree with the cons regarding giving away so much in tax incentives.  

Pros: fairly central to DC and NYC, so a good talent pool for existing workers. A major international airport. International shipping docks.  Existing (if rather outdated and in need of upgrading) public transportation system including a regional rail system (that could REALLY use an infusion of investment which Amazon could force). Philly has much of the social and art scene Amazon seems to be interested in, but at a lower cost than either NYC or DC (or their surrounding areas), and with fairly easy access to either of those cities if desired.  Despite popular jokes, Philly is a surprisingly "friendly" city.

Cons: traffic around here is already a mess and pumping another 50K jobs concentrated into one area wouldn't help that.  The transportation systems around here are designed to get workers into Philly, not the other way around so to take full advantage of that system they would really need to be located as close to Center City as possible, which increases costs substantially. Housing costs in the city are already fairly high and another 50K decent paying jobs wouldn't help that any (although it would potentially help the city off-set whatever incentives offered to Amazon).  50 thousand is a lot of people and I'm having a hard time visualizing where a facility that large could be located in the Philly region without severely taxing already stretched infrastructure systems.  

Basically, I am somewhat of the opinion that Philly would be better for Amazon than Amazon would be for Philly, so I could take it or leave it. But as long as the city planners don't offer too much to get them here, it might be a good thing.

In reply to sobe_death :

That's two plus families a day. Plus their two cars. Charleston is not a large town. That's about 15% growth a year. I'll be glad to pack my E36 M3 and get out in 4 more years.

Seems like a semi comprehensive list:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/amazon-ignites-fight-for-hq2-here-s-how-20-contenders-stack-up

My biased vote is for Philly, still unsure what the cons section means by stating Philadelphia is lacking in "cultural ammenities"

No talk of Chicago....

I think "business and tax friendly environment" pretty much rules us out. But then again, the bigger you are the less rules you have to follow here, so maybe, just maybe.