Anybody Seeing Crazy Lead-times on Parts at Work?

In reply to Mr. Peabody :

That's true. 
 

And it's actually much more than propping up to some people. 
 

Stimulus payments went into the hands of people who were actually spending less. Less money on vacations, less commuting costs to go to work, less dry cleaning and nice work clothes. Businesses didn't have to make payroll because of PPP, and money was cheap.  Those lowered expenses plus the various stimulus checks gave many people a lot more spendable income. 
 

It got spent in unpredictable ways. "Honey we can't travel this year, but we have some extra money. Maybe we can splurge on a nice car". Or a RV, or an AirBnB rental on a lake, or race car parts, or home improvements, etc. 
 

The money that used to be dedicated to tourism was all spent in other ways. And NO ONE could predict how. 
 

So, the supply chain got really wonky. Things we used to need were unnecessary, things we never needed before went nuts. We very quickly made monumental shifts in our spending patterns, and the worldwide economy and supply chains have not been able to adjust quick enough. 
 

It's not gonna change soon. 

Ya'll scaring me :( I just want to buy a new blue Miata, but all they got is red and gray. My disappointment is immeasurable and the economy is runed. 

Oh yeah... and I work in an industry that is used to long lead-times on made to order equipment.  It's giving a few of our clients schedule-shock.  "Yeah... that fancy stainless steel tank you want... we're looking at an expedited (extra $$$) delivery date of about 10 months from now. Assuming you order it TODAY.  "But...  we still have to get funding..."   "Yeah... that'll probably add another 6 months...."  "But... we want to be operational by the end of 2021..."   

One facility I support was planning a smallish new construction.  Then no one bid. When the contracting officer called several to find out the answer was, AWS is building three server farms and Amazon is building two large warehouses or something and their contractor locked in purchase contracts for exclusive supply of several types of embedded fasteners. The whole area is scrambling to find any small supply here or there and our job was in that middle space of being too big to scrounge parts for. 

The CO also managed to get a hold of one of the Amazon contractors and they stated that despite exclusive contracts and enough clout to call the Chinese and Taiwan mfgs, they can't get the fasteners yet either. UAE and PRC have MORE exclusive rights first. So we wait to try and get bids next year. 

Even one awarded contract got put on hold as wood wasn't just expensive, they couldn't get the fire rated plywood. I think they go going now though.

My FLAPS is out of TH-350 transmission pan gaskets.

They have 90 on backorder.

They have no idea when they are coming.

Seriously, out of pan gaskets for what is probably the most produced automatic transmission ever.

I'll offer an alternative that this is not COVID or Suez Canal or whatever, but something bigger than that.

To answer the OP, yes, things are ridiculous. Everything that's not McMmaster is ruined. 4-6 week lead time is 20-25 or worse, plus we have had suppliers tell us that they can't tell us what the price will be that far out, but we have to pay whatever it is. We are selling and shipping more than before, but it's going to be tough to carry on. We're a bit shielded as we're primarily domestically sourced which gives us a bit more buying power, but it's still ugly. Most old veterans tell me that they've never seen anything like it and don't know how it's going to end (Venezuela/Cuba?) but we're staying afloat for now because of huge sales. Another sign, we (1000 person private industrial company) are unable to fill 40 hourly positions at pretty much any cost. People don't show up to interviews, don't show up after training, leave after day 1, etc.

It's a perturbation to the global market for sure, and I don't think anyone understands the macroeconomic conditions causing it. Worse yet, this stuff doesn't show up quickly or easily on a balance sheet or a stock ticker, so the mainstream financial folks seem unaware. The numbers they see are fine for now. 

I'm going to take the role of the contrarian. I think you guys should consider the possibility it's not as bad as you are psyching yourselves into. Market forces will correct all this and probably faster than you might think. I remember the hype of Y2K fears and it feels the same with this. I hope I'm right... time will tell.

The hiring shortage is a different problem but it's probably having some effect on prices as well. Pretty much every industry around here is having trouble finding people to work. So you either have to pay ridiculous amounts to get asses off couches or you have to scale back your production/service. Both of those drive up costs and drive down supply.

Sparkydog said:

I'm going to take the role of the contrarian. I think you guys should consider the possibility it's not as bad as you are psyching yourselves into. Market forces will correct all this and probably faster than you might think. I remember the hype of Y2K fears and it feels the same with this. I hope I'm right... time will tell.

It's been like this now for almost an entire year. The hiring issues go back farther. This isn't going away anytime soon especially with the newest threats being bandied about for locking down the world for a second time. I guess they didn't quite destroy enough the first time.

The hiring issues around here are from the past year. At least in CO, there's all sorts of extra assistance being passed out so the wage gap between working and not working is getting pretty small. 

ShawnG said:

My FLAPS is out of TH-350 transmission pan gaskets.

They have 90 on backorder.

They have no idea when they are coming.

Seriously, out of pan gaskets for what is probably the most produced automatic transmission ever.

It's probably a good time to stock up on gasket paper and cork. Make your own, at least as a short term solution.

I drove a bit out of the way to get gas at Costco this morning, past a few auto dealers that I normally don't see except on somewhat rare occasions.  The Kia dealer and the Ford dealer in particular has almost no vehicles on their lots, when in normal times they are overflowing with product.  Must be a really tough time to be a car salesman with not much to sell 

For anyone involved with purchasing rubber products, keep an eye on your stock and make sure you have enough.  LG Chem is getting out of the business and they are a HUGE global supplier of polymer base stocks and it is already having ripple effects up the supply chain.  Mostly just panic, but at the speed things move in this industry it could be a very real speed bump. 

Woody (Forum Supportum) said:

ShawnG said:

My FLAPS is out of TH-350 transmission pan gaskets.

They have 90 on backorder.

They have no idea when they are coming.

Seriously, out of pan gaskets for what is probably the most produced automatic transmission ever.

It's probably a good time to stock up on gasket paper and cork. Make your own, at least as a short term solution.

Hmm, my vinyl cutter can cut cork and 1/8" gasket material. 

Send me a diagram?

Woody (Forum Supportum) said:

ShawnG said:

My FLAPS is out of TH-350 transmission pan gaskets.

They have 90 on backorder.

They have no idea when they are coming.

Seriously, out of pan gaskets for what is probably the most produced automatic transmission ever.

It's probably a good time to stock up on gasket paper and cork. Make your own, at least as a short term solution.

We have a good stock of all that. They just end up being very expensive gaskets.

We ordered a large HVAC unit (screw chiller) the first week of May, it was originally set to ship in mid July, then got bumped to 8/3.   I just got a notification that it's now 8/21.  "This order has been impacted by supplier material delay" was the reason given.  Time will tell but I'm guessing it will be sometime in mid September before we see it.

I work for one of the large IT hardware vendors, and we generally have an amazing supply chain, but we're starting to see some crazy lead times on individual components. So, we swap to components that are available, and then the lead times on those parts explode.  
 

At home, it took 4 months to get all of the windows and doors we ordered back on 4/1 in. The windows and doors sat at a warehouse for 5 weeks before they could be unloaded off the tractor trailer they came in on and delivered.  With the unemployment benefits that were available at the time, they said it was impossible to keep that operation fully staffed.

ShawnG said:

Woody (Forum Supportum) said:

ShawnG said:

My FLAPS is out of TH-350 transmission pan gaskets.

They have 90 on backorder.

They have no idea when they are coming.

Seriously, out of pan gaskets for what is probably the most produced automatic transmission ever.

It's probably a good time to stock up on gasket paper and cork. Make your own, at least as a short term solution.

We have a good stock of all that. They just end up being very expensive gaskets.

What's more expensive? A hand made gasket or a car taking up a service bay for who knows how long?

Keith Tanner said:

The hiring shortage is a different problem but it's probably having some effect on prices as well. Pretty much every industry around here is having trouble finding people to work. So you either have to pay ridiculous amounts to get asses off couches or you have to scale back your production/service. Both of those drive up costs and drive down supply.

This has impacted every business in my area that I have talked with. It's strange to show up to a closed major national chain store or fast food place because no employees were available on a certain day. Even the biggest companies who can pass down costs the easiest haven't been able to find general labor.    

In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :

That's why we're making what we need. 

The customer can pay for the gasket.

Andy Neuman said:

Keith Tanner said:

The hiring shortage is a different problem but it's probably having some effect on prices as well. Pretty much every industry around here is having trouble finding people to work. So you either have to pay ridiculous amounts to get asses off couches or you have to scale back your production/service. Both of those drive up costs and drive down supply.

This has impacted every business in my area that I have talked with. It's strange to show up to a closed major national chain store or fast food place because no employees were available on a certain day. Even the biggest companies who can pass down costs the easiest haven't been able to find general labor.    

Can someone explain why there is such a mass labor shortage? I've heard random things from random places, but I trust you all more for actual facts?

After being on Furlough for 16 months, we returned to find all of our electronics that use backup batteries need new batteries.  Guess what nobody can source?  They can't even get us an estimate on the time.  For now our main "desk" is using a big computer backup battery so we do not go down in the middle of a show.

In reply to Pete Gossett (Forum Supporter) :

Depending on which end of the spectrum you hail from, the answer is either "unemployment benefits and handouts are too much" or "this labor reckoning has been a long time coming". As with most things, the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.

There is a significant portion of the population that is completely unemployable. They have been trained to "stick it to the man" since they were little kids by E36 M3 culture influencers.  
 

maschinenbau said:

In reply to Pete Gossett (Forum Supporter) :

Depending on which end of the spectrum you hail from, the answer is either "unemployment benefits and handouts are too much" or "this labor reckoning has been a long time coming". As with most things, the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.

+1.  I think the post after yours falls on one side of the argument. 

Something to keep in mind, wherever the real answer lies, is that unemployment is INSURANCE, not a handout.  Everyone pays into it on their W2 income, and you only collect it if you are let go for certain reasons.  It's much more akin to, "I was in a not-at-fault accident and my Geico premiums paid for my wrecked car" than "someone please give me a free car I didn't earn".  So someone who's never worked, or was fired for documented poor performance, is not eligible for unemployment.  I don't know why so many people aren't aware of this.  The government did temporarily increase the amount of unemployment payments so waitstaff, hotel workers, and others that had their entire industry shut down by Covid didn't starve.