Baby Boomers cars market question.

I have been itching for awhile to get another vintage or muscle car from the 60's or 70's. Prices are still high in my opinion and I'm not rushing but is there ANY chance that it will come crashing down in the next 10 years? I would imagine there will be a huge shift by the boomers to sell off their cars/collections to shore up their golden years of living. As you can see, it cost a lot to continue with retirement with rising cost of food, health care and other possible unforeseen expenses such as taking care of an ailing spouse or helping out their own kids. My thing is this, Gen X and Millennials loves their SUV's and new Trucks (I can see the old trucks continue to rise price wise but the cars are likely going to get neglected).  They are not likely going to care about Mom or Dad's cars plus there is the "manual" dilemma. So do you think the market will dive due to over supply of 50's-70's coming up on the market or will it continue to trend upwards regardless of the future generation's lack of interest? What do you think is going to happen? I have some decisions to make and want to be ready when the time comes. 

In reply to Sine_Qua_Non :

In my humble opinion it won't happen with a bang, but a whimper. 
Highly desirable cars will retain  value just like Duesenburgs  and Bugatti's did of the 20's and 30's. 
 While Model T's and Model A's softened a bit they did not fall completely and they are making a modest recovery. 
 

Baby Boomers cars will have a market not just of Baby  Boomers  but also their children and grandchildren. Dad/ Grandpa had one like that.  

Realize that most of the production of those was turned into scrap before they became desirable.  So it won't take a big demand to keep prices up.  While collections assembled for purely financial gain may be broken up.  Many Baby Boomers will hold onto their prized car until they take the long dirt nap.   Then it will sit in the garage for a lot more years while the heirs argue about it.  Or lose track/interest

I think the high value stuff will continue to be high value because it is now deemed to be valuable.

Less desirable stuff will likely fall, but it's going to take years. Meanwhile, Gen X is driving the price of imports up, it's how we get $120,000 Supras.

I feel like certain specific cars will hold value. Like original early Z28s or 4 speed Hemi Cudas. But I wouldn't be surprised if your usual '69 whatever restomod Camaro on Torque Thrusts falls off. 

I know my friends aren't dreaming of that sort of cars anymore. One of the guys I graduated with is actively hunting for a Saleen fox body for example.

I'm a boomer and have been selling down the last 15 years. I believe the most desirable muscle car era cars will hold value but the vast majority will drop a lot in value. The whole supply/demand thing. There are less and less young people interested in cars as a hobby and more and more "old" cars to choose from as each year passes. There's a lot of cool cars dropping in value already because they aren't the most sought after models. I sold my '70 Buick Wildcat 455 survivor about 5 years ago. A '70 Chevelle 454 with same mileage and condition would have sold for at least 5 times what the Wildcat sold for. The Wildcat has gone down in value while the Chevelle has gone up a little.

In reply to NOT A TA :

Price has very little to do with value. 
People pay too much or get a really great deal. Styles and trends distort all of the money aspects. Circumstances alter prices dramatically. A big lottery winner might pay way too much or a desperate person sell far too cheap. 

Like Keith said, the high value stuff will continue to be high value because that's the way the market is. But how high is that value? The general trend now is down, a buyer's market ... at least if you listen to the "experts." I'll be at the November Keith McCormick Classic Car Auction in Palm Springs in a couple weeks. That'll be interesting. His auctions are usually more reasonable than the high end events. I've always thought the McCormick auctions are extremely reasonable. Always thought they were a "buyers market." So a trend down or up there will be telling. I'll report.

So you might ask, if the McCormick auction is great for buyers, why didn't I buy something? Well, I've seen a great many fantastic deals cross the block, and some that didn't, just waiting for the right bid. I'll admit, I have a hard time pulling the trigger. My friends know me. And they humiliate me for passing up great deals. I'm working on that. 

It's hard to say.  I think Gen-Xers grew up with muscle cars enough to still carry that flame for at least another 20 years or so.  But I do believe the market will hit a saturation point where there are more cars available than buyers with disposable income to purchase them. 

What????? Of course there are unusual sales but we're talking about run of the mill common transactions.

Not sure what you're getting at here Frenchy but there's more and more old cars available and less and less of a market. So in general the "average" musclecar era cars are going down in value. Like say an ordinary Olds F-85, Buick Special, Chevy Impala, Buick Riveria, Olds Toronado, Ford LTD, Mercury Monterey, Mercury Montego, Dodge Coronet, Plymouth Satellite, Rambler Marlin. Etc. Etc. Etc.  There's just not enough demand for all the cars so the less popular ones are going down in value.

As an example here's a 65 Rambler Marlin on Ebay. https://www.ebay.com/itm/1965-AMC-Other/254405422131?hash=item3b3bbeac33:g:naYAAOSwQ5Ndufrl

Fairly rare cool old car but not an incredibly desirable car. 327 4 speed, and looks like a decent driver, bidding is only at $6,500.00. Just the rebuilt engine, suspension, interior, brake upgrade and recent paint certainly cost waaay more than 6,500.00. Never mind wheels/tires etc.  A 69 Camaro in similar condition would sell for much more. While some might think this car will be worth more than it sells for this week in say 10 years because it will be that much older I'll bet it would sell for less with inflation taken into consideration because there will be even less demand for it than there is today.

Sellers description:

In reply to Ian F :

I think Muscle Car values have peaked. I also think that's the case with British sports cars. Their values are dropping like a stone. Just look at TR3 and TR4 price trends from a few years ago and where they are today. Also, I was ridiculed here a few years ago because I criticized the great ... well I won't say his annointed name but he's a big star on the cable networks, for predicting we were close to $100K status for Volvo P1800's. I thought it was ludicrous then, and I think it's ludicrous now. I even confronted that so-called expert at the Boca Raton Concours d'Elegance shortly after he made that prediction,and he back pedaled big time. Car values are mostly hype. He who stands to make the most profit off a sale tends to promote that sale at the highest price in his opinion. Hence, the hype.

To the OP, there are great deals to be had at auctions. Just don't go to the big ones. Seek out the second and third tier auctions. There are great values there. (Join me in Palm Springs later this month for some great deals).

I collected cars from a young age toward retirement and sell a car off about every two years.  Next one I'm selling is 67 Camaro RS SS Conv. and after that it's the 86 Carrera wide body euro cab. For the basic reasons you listed in the OP.

Ian F said:

It's hard to say.  I think Gen-Xers grew up with muscle cars enough to still carry that flame for at least another 20 years or so.  But I do believe the market will hit a saturation point where there are more cars available than buyers with disposable income to purchase them. 

OK then go buy a 1932 Ford roadster or 40 Ford Woodie. They will be a lot higher than 20 years ago. 
yet they made millions. 
None of their era owners are around buying.  
That's not talking about the rare or unique, just cars.

The issue with pre-war is that WWII turned quite a bit of them into tanks and ships. Made them artificially scarce.

In reply to Gary :

I don't disagree about the 1800, except maybe very high point ES models.  Those still seem to be increasing in value.  If there is one car brand that Millennials seem to look at, it's old Volvos - even among those that don't really care much about cars otherwise. I've seen this in a few of my associates and friends who are that age.  So as they get older, settled and get their finances more stable there's a chance some older Volvos like the 1800 and 240 models (and everything in between) could maintain values, although I hesitate to say "increase" too much.

One muscle car that seems to see no value plateau yet is the 68-70 Charger.  I think there are still too many of my fellow Gen-Xers who want to relive their Dukes of Hazzard youth. I haven't seen a running and drivable example for sale for under $30K in a long time. Even projects can go for stupid money.  Right now there's a 70 on FB with a $4600 asking price. No drive train, tons of rust, no title.  I think the title issue is the main reason it hasn't sold yet. In some states that is a bigger issues than others so it can limit the buyer pool - for me in PA, it's way more trouble than I want to deal with. 

I go to a second (third?) tier auction every year at Atlantic City. Sale prices are still nowhere near B-J levels (nor the quality of the cars), but IMO the proximity (time-wise) to the Scottsdale events gives sellers a false sense of values, so reserves seem to be set unrealistically high and few cars are offered at no reserve.  Personally, my friends and I just see it as a big, indoor car show and a break from the winter. 

I'm not sure I agree with the values of old hot-rod Fords or woodies, but that is not a market I pay much attention to. They are neat cars, but I have no interest in them. Which could be telling for future values. 

British cars are a tough one.  I see it in my local Triumph club. At 49 I'm often the youngest in attendance, which is a problem.  But LBCs have always been something of a niche market that appeal to more eclectic folks. Again, as Millennials' situations stabilize, there is some chance the LBC market will as well.  A slim chance, maybe, but some.  One LBC that seems to be going up is the GT6.  I could probably sell my '72 for more than 2x what I paid for it back in 2012, not that I would.

To me, collecting cars is like collecting anything - buy what you enjoy. Buying as an investment is a fools game.

Been going to car shows and swap meets for the past 20 years here in the midwest and noticed a few things.

Gone are the days of pastel paint, tweed interiors, and LT1 swaps.  Same with the monochrome 32 Fords.  Those cars can be had for pennies on the dollar.  Lots of 6 figure Pro Street and American Graffiti style builds trading hands for 20k because the guy who built and loved it is dead and his kids want that eyesore gone.  Car corrals around here used to be tri-five chevys and early Mustangs, now its almost all third gen Camaros, fox bodies, sweet 80s and 90s survivor pickups, and the occasional G body.  Grand Nationals are (oddly) all gone, bubble Impalas are gone, I couldnt tell you the last time I saw a Monte Carlo Aero Coupe when you used to be able to throw a rock and hit three of them.  Some survivor muscle cars still out there, but they are thin on the ground.

Me?  I am hanging onto my 95 Viper for a while, hoping for an uptick and in the mean time having a good summer car.  

Supply and demand... Most prices will go down for anything mass produced that boomers have been hanging on to.  Truly exceptional and rare cars will maintain or increase in value (think Ferrari racing cars) but run of the mill muscle cars... No.  Massive numbers of these are in garages all across america.  Unless there's an untapped market of buyers wanting to hold a Plymouth \ Chevy \ Mercury in their garage for the next 40 years, it's going to be hard to find buyers for all of these cars.  I'm only forty, and I might buy one, but only if it is cheap.  Same goes with British sports cars.  Prices seem soft and I don't think more buyers are going to show up for Triumphs and MGs.  

In reply to (not) WilD (Matt) :

That 6 cylinder Mustang, 350 Camaro,  318 Dodge  etc will drop as we Baby boomers age. But the GT350 and Z28 will remain of value. 
 

Well,  maybe!   Who knows what hot rodders of the future will desire?  
Maybe Chevy Vega's with 1120 horsepower electric motors?  Or steam powered Ford Pinto's. 

6 cylinder 1st gen Mustangs?  I have only ever seen one, at a car charity donation place (3 speed, baby blue, total secretaries car).  Certainly not super valuable, but super rare (inverse of production of course).

You want attention at a car show, don’t bring a high optioned, max engine car, those are super common, bring a base model.  Bonus is that it will piss off the “ever option available” car guys.

Appleseed said:

The issue with pre-war is that WWII turned quite a bit of them into tanks and ships. Made them artificially scarce.

Rust and newer better cars turned a lot of 50's - 60's even 70's era cars  into Scrap metal and Toyota's and Honda's. 
Performance and Luxury cars of the 80's and 90's crippled by smog and complexity's  quickly depreciated  too as the cost of repairs vastly exceeded their value becoming so much scrap metal used by China to rebuild it's infrastructure. 
Then we have the space issue.  Nearly 8 Billion people crowding the earth with the premium charged for land a lot of garages got torn down to make into apartments, or McMansions. Eliminating cheap storage space.  
Not to mention space on roads.  Crowding takes fun out of a muscle car tied up in traffic. 
Skilled Trained auto mechanics with required certifications are getting $100+ an hour for shop time.  Quickly driving required high maintenance cars to exceed their value.  

 

NOT A TA said:

I'm a boomer and have been selling down the last 15 years. I believe the most desirable muscle car era cars will hold value but the vast majority will drop a lot in value. The whole supply/demand thing. There are less and less young people interested in cars as a hobby and more and more "old" cars to choose from as each year passes. There's a lot of cool cars dropping in value already because they aren't the most sought after models. I sold my '70 Buick Wildcat 455 survivor about 5 years ago. A '70 Chevelle 454 with same mileage and condition would have sold for at least 5 times what the Wildcat sold for. The Wildcat has gone down in value while the Chevelle has gone up a little.

I think you're too close to the trees to see the forest. Price difference between a Chevelle and a Buick muscle car is going to get less and less critical to future generations.   
They will want a muscle car and look the car doesn't sense you approaching and automatically open it's doors. You have to squeeze this thing  here and pull the door open yourself.  Isn't that strange?   

In reply to frenchyd :

I'd rather have the Buick because I prefer the way it looks and it's less common. I'm a young millenial with a station wagon and a daily driver with a clutch pedal though, so my opinion is apparently irrelevant.

In reply to Daylan C :

Again too close to the trees to see the forest. 
 

Lets's try a different approach.  Pretend you wanted to buy a London to Brittany eligible car.  Or 

maybe less esoteric, a Pre WW1 car. 
 

Now, what do you want?  

In reply to frenchyd :

Want or can find? First thought admittedly was a Ford TT. 

EDIT: which isn't old enough. I have no clue then.

Frenchy, this is the topic. Did you read the first post?

"I have been itching for awhile to get another vintage or muscle car from the 60's or 70's. Prices are still high in my opinion and I'm not rushing but is there ANY chance that it will come crashing down in the next 10 years? "

We're not discussing cars of the 30's, 40's, 50's, 80's, 90's, or garages, or maintenance costs, or highway traffic, or electric conversions, or steam conversions. Try to stay on topic.

In reply to Daylan C :

My point is once past a certain age, it's more about what's available than a preference.  
 

Cars I'm interested in  went off the assembly line in the early 70's.   The few available tend to command a decent premium, all out of proportion to the availability/ demand  price adjustment.  
 

Children I take to school will be in the market for collector cars in their 50's-60's when a 1970's era car is  90-100 years old.