Best laid plans..

So this is mostly me venting.    After all the frustration of being messed around house-hunting here in Peru, a couple of months back we bought a plot of land and started our project to finally have a house (not an apartment), space for the kids,  garden, small pool, workspace for me, etc.  All was coming along (slowly) until the presidential elections came along.

Due to the political landscape here in Peru, in the 1st round there were 18 presidential candidates.  Not one candidate made it to 20%, which meant similar, moderate candidates all shared a slice of the pie, leaving the two extreme options (left and right wing) taking the first 2 places.  The 2 options being:

1) a puppet as the face for an ultra-left Marxist party with a nasty piece of work in charge of the party, who thinks Cuba and Venezuela are fairy-tale places to live, the party manifest includes such nuggets as: state controlled media/news, state controlled internet, banning imports, restricting exports, nationalising foreign assets, confiscating land owned by business' and private individuals, deporting foreigners, blaming the US and Europe for all the world's problems, etc.

2)the right-wing daughter of prior president Fujimori, who was convicted of human rights violations etc, and is a very polarising figure.   Unfortunately widely disliked as being a very manipulative person, and under investigation for various corruption-related charges.  If she gets in she'll probably just maintain the status-quo whilst siphoning off public funds.

Now we're in the final vote, and it's pretty much neck and neck, less than 100k votes between them (around 0.5%), but current indications are showing the ultra-left as most likely to win.  The local currency is already nose-diving, having been in decline since the results of the 1st round.  Before the 1st round it was around 3.6 soles to the dollar, now it's around 4.0, but in the banks it's trading around 4.3!  Assuming they win, unless they completely change their rhetoric, there will be emigration, foreign investors will run, and the economy will crash.  We're properly stuffed as we've just bought a big plot of land and if the economy tanks we'll be at a loss even if we could find a buyer.   In-laws think we should stay regardless, but I'll be honest I'm worried about safety (as me and the kids are foreigners), as well as the financial side. 

If all the bad stuff does happen we'll have no choice but to try and get out, most logical place back to Blighty, but it's going to mean starting from 0 pretty much, living with my folks until we can get stuff sorted.   I was middle-management in engineering before we left (oil/gas sector), but that was 8 yrs ago, so I've been out of the game a while, and it may take some time to get back in (middle management IT and costs here).  Thankfully the UK (due to Brexit) has realigned their requirements for medical staff (SWMBO), and even though there is still a decent of paperwork to apply, she would now be able to go through the processes to work there (we left as the UK was being difficult about recognising her EU qualification with her Peruvian passport, EU passport would have been no problem).

Aside from the financial stuff, I'm really worried about the kids adapting if we have to move.  My 8yr old is deaf, and she struggles with languages, obviously. She has done fantastically to get to where she is now, she's still with her age group in school, and getting good grades.   The school is bilingual (Spanish/English), so that is helping and I'm reading to her in English every night, she can understand a good % of English, but her speech is some way behind, mostly grammar.  If we move I'm worried about a)bullying b)her education.  My 5yr old is a sponge and very capable - he's sensitive to changes but he will adapt, and I've no doubt he'll get on ok after a short adaptation.

It's still going to be another day or so to know the final results, and then the change will happen 28th July.  When the changeover happens, one assumes it will take some time before they can enact much of their "plan".  In that time we'd need to try and get our money out of the country, sort out SWMBOs visa, try and sell what we can't take, job hunt etc etc.  Sigh.

Wooof.  For all the political maneuvering and manipulation we 'enjoy' here in the US, we at least have more general stability.

I wish you all the best no matter what happens.

Cheers.  I forgot to mention the lefty-loonies also propose to legalize cocaine production - guess who owns that lot?  Their buddies the left-overs of the Shining Path terrorist group.  A large percentage of their party membership are also members of the political arm of the Shining Path...

Good luck.

Yikes. I do not envy your position. I'd be returning to the UK too!

I just need a space to note down some of the junk in my head at the moment, I hope y'all don't mind.

So, the ultra-left got declared the winners.  The now-President Castillo declared that he would be moderate and would respect the status quo etc, and the markets calmed down.  Then, he changes all protocol on the day of his swearing-in, changing all sorts of stuff, stating he wouldn't govern from the presidential palace "as it represents the terrible colonialism we suffered from Spain" - rubbish, the Spanish governer's house was knocked down and the current presidential palace built on top of it when Peru was independent.  He also had the King of Spain in attendance whilst complaining about Spanish colonialism.  The real reason for doing this is so the boss of the political party (banned from holding public office for various scandals) can be present as he is the one really running things, not the President. He delayed the swearing in of ministers, twice, as they couldn't agree.  We were without government for 2 days.  When he finally announces his cabinet, they're mostly ultra-left extremists aligned with the party leader, with several known Shining Path (terrorist group) sympathisers, including the first minister, the "Premier", and several others being investigated for corruption and money laundering, and our gem of a Minister for foreign affairs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H%C3%A9ctor_B%C3%A9jar) who founded a guerilla group in the 60s here, fought in Cuba, met Che Guevara and Castro, supports the regimes in Cuba and Venezuela, and so on.  The first choice for "Premier" was dumped as he got a 14 yr old pregnant, amongst other things.  The minister for transport didn't last one day as it turned out he was the boss of a company which issue a fake safety certificate for an LPG transporter 2 years back which exploded not far from our apartment, killing a lot of people.  Designating unacceptable ministers is all designed so that Congress veto the cabinet, and if they do that twice he's allowed to dissolve Congress, and there will be no stopping what he can do - one of the main aims is to bin the Constitution and re-write to suit their own ends.

As it is, in his swearing in he mentioned that the government would control state propaganda, no one seemed to read much into it, but sure enough since then no main-stream media have been allowed in, they've created their own radio/TV which is the only media authorised at government functions.   Now, 'acadamies' have started popping up in Lima, offering training to be a "Rondero" (an unofficial militia which started out where there was little Police presence, it started out as a good thing to help combat crime/terrorism in the 90s, but now it's often at odds with the Police), with "político-militar" training, but not allied to the state, allied to President Castillo and, more accurately, his political party.  The actual boss of the "Ronderos" has said they're not official acadamies, but not to worry, he's got 40 thousand militia ready to come to Lima "to help the Police".  This worries me greatly.   What have all terrible regimes done in the past?  As soon as they get to power, fire up their own militia to quell any uprising. 

We're in a quandary.   If we hadn't just bought a $400k plot of land to build on we may already have plane tickets.  But to up and go without selling that or our apartment is going to b***er us financially, and leave us in a difficult position in terms of getting a house in Blighty.  There's a chance that Congress can oust the President, but the vice-president is just as bad if not worse.  There's a chance of a coup, but that will be messy.  The hope had been that the President would live up to his word pre-swearing in and be more centre-left leaning, but it looks like that was all just lies until he got into power.

Several of the top terrorists who were captured are now writing to the President asking for a presidential pardon....He's not answered, but his "Premier" has said it's not on the agenda at the moment. Uhmmm, at the moment?

It would be tricky to sell the land in this climate (big transactions are normally in USD, property, vehicles, etc) made worse that the local currency has taken a swan dive off a cliff due to all the political uncertainty.   Before all this loonacy started, the exchange rate was S/3.6 to $1. Now it's hovering around S/4.15-S/4.2, and forecast to worsen, if it continues like this it is forecast to get to S/6.5 .  That exchange rate also means that now my wages here aren't enough to sponsor a UK residency visa for my wife (they were previously) - we can make up the shortfall if we sell the property, but that all takes time if things go bad, and the visa takes a couple of months, plus added paperwork to prove the property was ours etc.  Then there's the cost of the move - all up we'd be looking at over $25k to move to Blighty (flights, visa for SWMBO, shipping some basic stuff, quarantine in COVID hotel in the UK as Peru is on the red list), which would put a dent in the finances due to the whole building a house project.  $25k is more than a year's salary here.  Then there's me needing to find a new job in Blighty, and SWMBO would probably need to spend 6-12 months doing paperwork/retraining (she's a Doc) for the UK, otherwise finances would be strained with just my wages.  Not to mention sorting somewhere to live, schools etc.

All this means SWMBO and I are really suffering rather badly with stress at the moment, we're not sleeping properly, etc.  We're trying not to show it in front of the kids, but we're really rather worried and unsure about the whole thing.  We have no berkelying idea what is the right thing to do.  We're really really hoping there's a good, peaceful solution to it all, but... 

If we decide to try and sell the land now, we'll take a huge loss, and if things sort themselves out we'll have really made a problem for ourselves.  If things get worse, it may be too late...

Life can be a complicated b***er on occasion.

wow. that's perspective. 

What about planning a 'worst case' - if *this* happens then we do *that*. But until this happens hold steady?

I missed this the first time around. Have you tried to go to the British embassy to see if there are any other options?  I know resetting is hard but it seems like temporary sacrifices that you guys could overcome to be in a more stable environment for the kids. Also for your daughter are there schools just for the deaf?  Near me is a school for the deaf and blind that people move into the area just for the school. 

Yeah, we had said if he dissolves Congress, that's our break point, and we're gone.  The issue now is he may be sidestepping that a bit and is advancing other parts of a master plan beforehand (controlling the media and organising a militia), which complicates the leaving plan.  Unfortunately he seems to be doing the common "creeping it in a bit at a time" sort of take over.  We're really hoping we're wrong, and it's all a lot of sensationalism blown up out of all proportion, and in 12 months I'll look back at this post from the comfort of our newly built house with workshop and pool.  Sadly I'm seeing far too many similarities with other extreme left/right takeovers from history.

My brother suggested keeping the Landy geared up for an overland escape North, but the Darien Gap complicates that a bit! If we have to run it'll have to be whilst the airlines are still operating.

Stampie said:

I missed this the first time around. Have you tried to go to the British embassy to see if there are any other options?  I know resetting is hard but it seems like temporary sacrifices that you guys could overcome to be in a more stable environment for the kids. Also for your daughter are there schools just for the deaf?  Near me is a school for the deaf and blind that people move into the area just for the school. 

Officially the British embassy have congratulated the President, not much else they can do as he did win the election (by 0.6%!).  The embassy here are pretty useless though.  A left-wing Minister in the UK has commented though that Peru is in a hole, having had to choose between far left and far right, and he feels sorry for the people of Peru...

The (private) school where she is, is actually a new type here, using the Finnish education model of more hands-on learning, although that has changed a bit currently, with all classes being online due to COVID.  It's actually not a school specifically for people with additional needs, however it's teaching philosophy has brought a lot of interest from families that have kids with additional needs, it's a very 'inclusive school'.  She has bilateral cochlear implants, and with those she can hear (but differently to folk without hearing issues), but she has to work at it - she has to concentrate as opposed to 'just listen'.  She has worked berkeleying hard to get to where she is (her hearing age is basically only 4 years, but she's still in with her normal age group and getting good grades), and we're really proud, we're keen for her to be in a 'mainstream' school, and we're not sure if that would be feasible in the UK.  We'd have to wait and see what the local education authorities would say...

So $25k is a yearly salary.  It will cost roughly $25k to move to England, which is not small potatos.  

BUT....

You were able to purchase a $400k piece of land (assume in cash, because if its just a down payment you lose, whatever, let it go.  Its gonna be taken by the government at some point anyway)

That leads us to the conclusion that there either IS berkeley You Money because I do fairly well but sure as E36 M3 can't buy a $400k piece of land in cash, or there WAS berkeley You Money till it was blown on a $400k piece of land in an economically and politically turbulent country, which seems unwise from where I am standing.

Color me confused at the problem.  Either dig in and stay, or cut the losses and go.  

Head for the border now, berkeley what you lose on the land and the apartment, get back to wherever you have family or friends you can count on.

when "maybe there will be a coup" is on the list of positive outcomes, you should already be mobile.

I saw that this guy had been elected and I wondered how you were doing and worried about you.

Good luck, my man.

AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) said:

Head for the border now, berkeley what you lose on the land and the apartment, get back to wherever you have family or friends you can count on.

when "maybe there will be a coup" is on the list of positive outcomes, you should already be mobile.

This sounds like good advice. If everything turns out okay, your land will still be there and be yours (assuming you don't sell at a huge loss), right?

Do you have anyone that can help you with backing to make up the income difference for visa requirements without having to sell? If you find a job first, does that eliminate the problem? It seems that if the exchange rate is part of the problem, that is not getting better any time soon.

I don't really have advice, but it does sound like since it was so close things are not likely to swing too hard (without serious resistance).  So collectivism (e.g. government taking control of private holdings) seems unlikely?

It did remind me of when I used to work with a guy years ago who was from Peru.  I remember when there was a brief power outage he mentioned that that would happen pretty regularly in Peru.  It was just the terrorist bombing the power sub-station again (!).  I can only assume it was the Shining Path clowns you mentioned.

Anyway, best of luck and it is good perspective for those who are saying how horrible it is in the US for various reasons.... it can be WAY worse (and very much is in many parts of the world).

What I get from this is that you're waiting for things to get worse while trying to figure out how to get out. 
 

Considering the paramilitaries you described combined with the history of people getting disappeared in that part of the world, I'd make my first concern getting out alive. You may be a target sooner than you realize. It's time to go. 

In reply to AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) :

I agree 100% GTFO ASAP. Loosing most of your money sucks, but being trapped inside a country in turmoil will only end worse. You can always make more money, and I'm sure there are charities & aid organizations who could help with your situation after you get out. 

Without going into too many details on the internet, the land wasn't a 100% cash buy.  It might seem daft now, but when we bought back at the start of the year, it was the economy was stable, and this bunch of clowns was unheard of.  Peru was actually seen as the most stable economy in Latin America in which to invest, and has been for the last 10 -15 years or so... A 25 year old house is $600k plus in a reasonable area, land and constructing was the best option.

Part of our confusion is that there is a lot of sensationalism in the press, and it's difficult to get a good handle on the situation.  I'm reading both left and right inclined press sources to try and get an even spread.  Maybe it will all blow over?  Maybe we're over-reacting?

The Minister of the Interior has just stated on the record that the Ronderos will never come to Lima, that isn't an option, and isn't being looked at.  But is it all smoke and mirrors?  Who knows... They've done a few U-turns already. 

I reckon we need to give it another week or two and see what happens.  Unfortunately just going now isn't yet an option - as SWMBO has no residency rights elsewhere.  If we're definitely going then we'll need to sort out her visa, and that'll take a couple of months.

It's strange being in the middle of it, if I was reading this from outside I'd be saying the same as you guys, and AngryCorvair, thanks for putting my comment in perspective, where a coup is seen as a positive outcome maybe it is time to go...

Well,

I cant give you any other advise then this:

If you are betting your family's well being on the good will and integrity of marxists, then you're doing it wrong.

There's only one good type of marxist.

So in your reality, where it's normal for a 25 year old house in a 3rd world country to be $650k, I can't say I feel too bad.   

Spend your way out.

are they blaming the gringos for all the previous problems ?

that would be a big concern .

Good luck

Trade the house and property for a cocaine smuggling submarine and get out via the ocean. 

I never thought I'd post this as an actual legitimate suggestion as advice. 

captdownshift (Forum Supporter) said:

I never thought I'd post this as an actual legitimate suggestion as advice. 

 

Well, Captain is in your handle....how about an epic "ALARM!" moment Captain.

To the OP, thank you for sharing your situation...I sincerely hope the best for yourself and your family.  

So wait, you are should I stay or go, but a visa for the wife will take months? I'd get cracking. 

Do you have your ducks as in a row as possible for flipping that switch? I know losing money sucks, but you have your kids safety to consider.

In reply to paul_s0 :

Something I forgot to mention is that kids are unfathomably resilient, and they will thrive in any situation if they are given love and support by their family. Hell, kids thrive with significantly less than that every day.