COVID Flying Risks

Ya'll seem sensible and I appreciate a varied response.

We've had a two week vacation planned to visit family and friends in September. It's three of us, including a 2.5 year old. 4 hour flight. Attending two small weddings (of which we won't bring the kiddo and I may be going stag to both). I've got tickets, scheduled time off, all that.  

One side of the argument believes the risky part of the trip is the "visiting family and friends" - the other side argues the risk is in the flight/travel. 

Everything I've read says that Airlines are borderline health-center level sanitized and monitored. Even worldwide, data seems to indicate that flying is pretty low-risk in terms of transmission. We're flying Southwest, so that means 2/3 full flight and we might be able to put even more space between us and other passengers. 

Kiddo would be staying with my in-laws right off the plane, but my in-laws have been frequently seeing their 6 grandkids and extended family...who are going to church, seeing friends, etc. My parents have been good, great, about this all, and haven't seen friends or any family in months. My wife is nervous about exposing her parents, but they've definitely been doing risky stuff already. Is flying riskier than a big family playing with all the neighbor kids, going to church, etc?

Thoughts? 

My girlfriend, who has RA and is on two separate immune drugs, traveled to Phoenix at the beginning of June to see her mother...........but I think passenger traffic has picked back up since then.

But she mainly went since she finished her degree in May and her parents were going to come up for graduation, but obviously couldn't because of COVID (and graduation was cancelled). And she hadn't seen her mom in years, so she just went. 

We were going to road trip out there, but she didn't have the vacation time for it, and it also meant adding $100/night to the trip to board the dogs. Not to mention, the cat since we don't have anyone here in OKC that could come take care of food/water/litter box for it.

Long story short:

Are you comfortable with the risk presented? For me, it would depend on other factors. She went because her mother is in poor health and didn't know when she would have another chance to see her again soon. So for her it was the worth the risk.

We went back east a few weeks ago to visit family, flying Southwest from Denver to Atlanta.  The airports were not crowded with short security lines, and we had very little trouble keeping isolated except on the plane itself.  Masks are mandatory, and we carried hand sanitizer.  Our biggest exposure was probably at the hotel the last two days at Amelia Island.

I traveled via airline from San Diego to Manchester, NH last April. I was voluntold to come back out here mid June. I drove.

The flight home left me terribly unimpressed, but it was early in the pandemic. Way too many Maskholes in this world although it seems that the airlines are doing ok requiring a mask while onboard, I do not know about time in the airport itself.

On my flight home there was not social distance seating and the couple directly in front of me did not have masks on and were coughing and sneezing for the 5 hour trip to Philadelphia. A couple hour layover at that airport I saw many travelers not wearing masks while they waited for their flights. Overall I was unimpressed.

Driving from NH to CA also posed cleanliness issues. For the gas pump I would just use hand sanitizer after pumping. For the hotels I would glove up and clean every surface prior to moving my gear in. This was also later in the pandemic and places were just opening up. Definitely a different vibe.

Once again are you comfortable with the risk. Last list I saw airlines was top ten for places to be exposed.

As it stands right now I will have a total of 4 weeks paid quarantine this year. Two my first trip and two when I finally get home.

pheller said:

Is flying riskier than a big family playing with all the neighbor kids, going to church, etc?

Thoughts?

For me it comes down to overlap between circles. I think that there's some risk in socializing with a set group, but these people likely interact with the same people in the same areas all the time.

I think the risk probably jumps up when you're suddenly around a bunch of new people, in a new place, with all of their various contacts, etc. That's exposing you/your family to a bunch of new stuff while simultaneously exposing everyone else to whatever you bring with you. That's true for a flight, and it's true for the weddings too, especially if they're indoors and there's likely to be a lot of dancing, etc.

New Zealand went over 100 days without a confirmed COVID case. As an isolated, island nation with robust testing capability they should be well equipped to handle any spread of the virus from outside. They've done everything "the right way" thus far and yet they're currently dealing with an outbreak of 30 cases and climbing. Genomic testing apparently indicates that the new infections are a different strain of the virus than what was confirmed to be there a few months ago, so it came in from somewhere else when somebody or something from outside traveled there. That doesn't happen if people tighten their circles.

A family friend flew down to start her first year at UNM two weeks ago. Fit healthy 18 year old with a full ride swimming scholarship. Caught covid on the flight down from BC despite being masked and careful the whole way. Got quite sick and spent two days in the ICU, but on the mend now.

I agree with the relatives being the greater risk based on the overlapping circles STM317 talked about and the longer time of exposure. It's a risk I wouldn't be comfortable with, but as I've said before I'm playing it very conservative. 

I would expect the wedding to be a bigger but not unmanageable risk. I've been to a few events so far and the problem is everyone gets comfortable and the masks come off and people start getting closer together. As long as you remain aware of the situation you should have little difficulty keeping your exposure to a minimum. 

ultraclyde (Forum Supporter) said:

I agree with the relatives being the greater risk based on the overlapping circles STM317 talked about and the longer time of exposure. It's a risk I wouldn't be comfortable with, but as I've said before I'm playing it very conservative. 

I'm being super conservative compared to my girlfriend.

For instance, I waited for her to get off work to go get my car from the shop because I realized I didn't feel comfortable calling an Uber/Lyft and sitting in some car (that may or may not be getting cleaned well), with some person who I don't who they have been around either, sitting in the recycled A/C air.

And that would have been just for a 15-20 min car ride. 

I was a 160 segment a year flyer that abruptly stopped March 13.  I flew for the first time 2.5 weeks ago.  Crowds were non-existant, 80% compliance in the terminal and low enough volume that it was easy to maintain space.  Airplane was cleaned, very aware and well spaced.  I would say the family interactions are likely more risky than flights right now.  What's the chance that everyone, in a house for example, will wear masks while having the family gathering?  Not very likely, and it's bringing lots of people together that aren't normally around each other than opens the chance to spread something.

I don't fly often to begin with, so that is a consideration when evaluating my response.  I am not willing to get in a metal tube around a bunch of strangers that I know nothing about, all the while breathing recycled air for hours.  Add in the fact that for the airline to make this flight cost effective they probably can't maintain social distancing in seating arrangements and I'm a great big "not gonna do it, wouldn't be prudent."

secretariata (Forum Supporter) said:

I don't fly often to begin with, so that is a consideration when evaluating my response.  I am not willing to get in a metal tube around a bunch of strangers that I know nothing about, all the while breathing recycled air for hours.  Add in the fact that for the airline to make this flight cost effective they probably can't maintain social distancing in seating arrangements and I'm a great big "not gonna do it, wouldn't be prudent."

Just a clarification: most airplanes pressurize and bring in outside air throughout the flight.  Its called makeup air, and it compensates for the leakage that occurs (which is alot).  Usually less than 50% of the cabin air is "recycled", and the filters on the hvac system are very high quality (like hospital level high quality).  Of course, thats all irrelevant if the person next to you is sick and coughing, but not much is going to help there.  
 

Plenty of other things to fear about travel right now, but recycled air should be low on the list.  

Flynlow (FS) said:

secretariata (Forum Supporter) said:

I don't fly often to begin with, so that is a consideration when evaluating my response.  I am not willing to get in a metal tube around a bunch of strangers that I know nothing about, all the while breathing recycled air for hours.  Add in the fact that for the airline to make this flight cost effective they probably can't maintain social distancing in seating arrangements and I'm a great big "not gonna do it, wouldn't be prudent."

Just a clarification: most airplanes pressurize and bring in outside air throughout the flight.  Its called makeup air, and it compensates for the leakage that occurs (which is alot).  Usually less than 50% of the cabin air is "recycled", and the filters on the hvac system are very high quality (like hospital level high quality).  Of course, thats all irrelevant if the person next to you is sick and coughing, but not much is going to help there.  
 

Plenty of other things to fear about travel right now, but recycled air should be low on the list.  

That's actually reassuring, even for my days of traveling for work after this has calmed down some. Thanks!

In reply to pheller :

Masks on during the flight will be especially hard for your kid. But the real risk will be the social events.  The chances of you dying from Covid are pretty slim.  But greatly increase with age over60 and any preexisting conditions such as diabetes,  asthma,       High blood pressure, etc     

Flynlow (FS) said:

 

Just a clarification: most airplanes pressurize and bring in outside air throughout the flight.  Its called makeup air, and it compensates for the leakage that occurs (which is alot).  Usually less than 50% of the cabin air is "recycled", and the filters on the hvac system are very high quality (like hospital level high quality).

Somewhat anecdotal but I spent 15 hours sitting directly next to a guy on a flight from Los Angeles to Hong Kong last year who was absolutely dying sick...non stop sneezing, coughing, snot draining from his nose and the resulting snot rags stuffed everywhere and I didn't get sick.  Obviously, I don't know how contagious his disease was relative to COVID but, as you pointed out, the HVAC system did stop his funk.

bearmtnmartin said:

A family friend flew down to start her first year at UNM two weeks ago. Fit healthy 18 year old with a full ride swimming scholarship. Caught covid on the flight down from BC despite being masked and careful the whole way. Got quite sick and spent two days in the ICU, but on the mend now.

I would be curious if she actually caught COVID on the flight or somewhere else. 

pheller said:

bearmtnmartin said:

A family friend flew down to start her first year at UNM two weeks ago. Fit healthy 18 year old with a full ride swimming scholarship. Caught covid on the flight down from BC despite being masked and careful the whole way. Got quite sick and spent two days in the ICU, but on the mend now.

I would be curious if she actually caught COVID on the flight or somewhere else. 

I keep hearing "I got it from x", not sure how we can qualify that? A guy in one of my shops tested positive, said he got it from his pastor, another guy tested positive said he got it from the first guy... they never came in contact (on video, I'm required to pick who has which is fun) or even worked with the same tooling. Plenty of people did, and have continued testing negative. I've flown a couple times and it seems about as safe as it can get. 

My daughter and grandsons last week flew round trip from FL to CA.

They report that Delta was extremely careful.  Every other row empty.  Every other seat empty.  Mandatory mask wearing at all times.  Lots of cleaning, etc.

They felt safer on the flight than walking around in Florida.  

They also reported most of the area between Carmel and Stinson Beach was being pretty darn diligent (especially compared to FL)

I'm not worried about taking a flight.  I see ~100 people a week at work and am creating aerosols.  My wife is around ~50 little kids plus 12 staff at her daycare almost everyday.  If I get sick it won't be from going to a restaurant or getting on a flight, it'll be from work or from my wife.

I believe I saw something on the news recently that stated that one of the main contributing factors to the repeated spread is family-to-family spread.  Not inside the house where one person gets it and the other member of the household gets it, but where you visit family believing that they  are safe.  People let their guard down around family.

Personally, I'd feel safer flying than spending time around my family.  Some of those people aren't taking this seriously at all.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/odds-catching-coronavirus-plane-small-study