Destined for failure. The future of electricity.

In reply to CrustyRedXpress (Forum Supporter) :

Oh I am not hearing it, I am saying it. It is an opinion and I am willing to change that opinion. It's why I started the thread. 

Our families rentals are all older single family houses. One is an easy update, the others not so much. They are priced on the lower end of the scale for reasons. I don't own them, I don't operate them, I am at the point where if the owners health fails I am the one who will be dealing with it. Regardless, I'm less concerned about that situation and more concerned about the overall impact.

I am very certain that the reason I don't own a full electric vehicle is simply that my garage is full of Challenge car and home improvement crap and I am far too inundated with that to run another feed or two... although it means another 220v line for shenanigans...

Something to consider....

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/this-is-why-north-america-must-secure-rare-earth-outside-of-china-2021-02-08-14197012

30 years ago in Iraq, it was "kick their ass, take their gas."

Now with China, it's going to be what,

"Kick their hineyum, take their Neodymium?"

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

1- Charging electric cars increases load on the grid.  That's not right (for the most part).  Electric cars BALANCE the grid load.  They are mostly charged at night, which is when the grid is less stressed (because businesses are closed and manufacturing plants are not drawing power).  Very little change would be necessary.

3- Renters must have home chargers to be included in the electric economy.  That's like saying renters can't wash their clothes because they don't own washing machines.  There will be plenty of other ways to get their cars charged.  What do you think all the owners of gas stations are gonna do to make money?  There will also be mobile charging businesses, battery swapping businesses, landlords will begin installing chargers so they can get better tenants and higher rents, etc.  Every problem creates business opportunity.

4- We will always need to have as many cars per household as we do now.  Electric also brings with it vast new opportunities for alternate transportation ideas.  Electric mass transit, autonomous cars, car ownership sharing, electric scooters and single user vehicles, etc. etc.  There are LOTS of alternatives.  And younger generations are already rejecting auto ownership as the necessity their older counterparts have made it.  I'm not convinced the next generations will have multiple hunks of iron collecting rust in the yard.  They may be very content to have a neighborhood rideshare program where they each get timeshares of a neighborhood owned Tesla.

1 and 3 are related.  Today's EVs tend to be owned by wealthier buyers, who are more likely to be homeowners, and thus able to charge overnight (or with their solar panels).  To replace 95% of the vehicle fleet with EVs you need to expand ownership to the people who live in apartments and park on the street.  No city is going to pay to line the streets with chargers for every street parking spot, so those people need to be able to go somewhere to charge, just like they go to a gas station to buy gas today.  This means that we need improvements in charging technology to allow something like 80% charge in 10-15 minutes.  It also means that that 80% charging will mostly be happening during the day, NOT at night, and so it impacts the power grid requirements.

I'm highly dubious about #4.  That may be fine for single people who are in their 20s, but it changes when you're dropping 3 kids off at daycare on the way to work.

Slippery (Forum Supporter) said:

BFH_Garage said:

the farmers say they will make more leasing their land for solar, it will be interesting to see if we hit a point where we are taking too much productive farm land out of production for solar and create food supply issues. 

Put the solar farm in the desert. SW. 

Put the solar farm on top of every mall in the country.  Acres of real estate waiting to be used.

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to QuasiMofo (John Brown) Forum Supporter :

...1- Charging electric cars increases load on the grid.  That's not right (for the most part).  Electric cars BALANCE the grid load.  They are mostly charged at night, which is when the grid is less stressed (because businesses are closed and manufacturing plants are not drawing power).  Very little change would be necessary....

Unless... you switch your grid to all renewables, then you are charging at the worst possible time. Some have already promised this.  It could be done, but it would require MASSIVE amounts (i.e. stupid expensive) energy storage capability.

And, as with most things, the answer lies somewhere in between.  Full ICE, or full electric (for the foreseeable future) are both silly options, for different reasons.  Anyone who promises such things are likely doing it for less than honorable reasons.

Of note: as I mentioned in the other thread Jaguar going full electric is reasonable because of the type of vehicles they make (e.g. similar market to Tesla)

noddaz said:

Slippery (Forum Supporter) said:

BFH_Garage said:

the farmers say they will make more leasing their land for solar, it will be interesting to see if we hit a point where we are taking too much productive farm land out of production for solar and create food supply issues. 

Put the solar farm in the desert. SW. 

Put the solar farm on top of every mall in the country.  Acres of real estate waiting to be used.

*Not where there is snow

Otherwise I agree, everyone could have a solar panel or 2 on their house too

Something to consider....

The need to upgrade the power grid has been around for a long time.  Less than 20 years ago, we had a massive black out- showing how delicate the system is right now, and this was the middle of summer.  

Patches may have happened, but there has not been wide spread upgrades to the system anywhere.  Maybe in Europe it's different, as they seem more wanting to change the system (for one reason or another), and for sure China is different, since it's so new, and probably has a long way to go until it's 100% done.

Anyway, here in the US, everyone knows the system needs upgrades, but other than adding some green sources, nothing significant is happening.

Given that, I honestly think that getting enough of an upgrade by 2030 is very unlikely.

Which suggest to me that the announcements to go full EV is just passing the buck.  Car companies can say that they are doing their part to fix the problem, and now it's back the power generation system to do theirs.

I have NO data to back this pessimism on, just that's how I'm starting to see it.

Technically, I have no issue with EVs- even for enthusiats, they will be fun to drive- just sound different.

Economically- I don't see it.  Many here say that batteries are far more durable that anyone thinks, but I constantly see E-Bus and Hybrid Bus battery systems up for sale on battery recycling companies, and they measure out at a much smaller output than originally rated- these are the  most modern systems out there- all types of Li versions.  They do break down, especially when fast charged.  Which tells me that the bottom end of the car market is in for a shock when they get a 150k mile car and expect to limp along for however long.  Battery swaps are like total engine swaps, hardly things that the low end of the market can afford to do.  And forget DIY- hardly anyone can do an engine swap on their own, batteries are pretty dangerous in comparison thanks to the electrical potential energy.

I hope there will be that quantum change in battery tech and cost.  Because I think it will be required.  Otherwise, the bottom end of the economic spectrum will end up driving 50 year old cars by 2050.

aircooled said:

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to QuasiMofo (John Brown) Forum Supporter :

...1- Charging electric cars increases load on the grid.  That's not right (for the most part).  Electric cars BALANCE the grid load.  They are mostly charged at night, which is when the grid is less stressed (because businesses are closed and manufacturing plants are not drawing power).  Very little change would be necessary....

Unless... you switch your grid to all renewables, then you are charging at the worst possible time.

Who would be short sighted enough to to push that? Well...   It could be done, but it would require MASSIVE amounts (i.e. stupid expensive) energy storage capability.

Depends on what the renewable is. Wind can blow at night. Waves work at night. Hydroelectric (if that counts) works at night. Geothermal works at night.

And energy storage capacity for the grid can pay off very quickly. There's a utility in South Australia that installed a big battery bank and the numbers are really working out. It even helped them survive a Texas-style event. 

https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-in-south-australia-delivers-stunning-windfall-profits-77644/ 

About those concerned about the relative pollution of coal plants vs cars - power plants operate at a steady load and temperature so they can be tuned for minimum emissions. Cars have to go through a warmup cycle at least once per day and dealing with ugly transient conditions that are really hard to deal with. With power plants, you just have to maintain the scrubbers (very technical term) for a single point. With cars, each car has its own emissions scrubbing system that may or may not be working properly - the owners of these cars can get very hostile when you tell them not to berkeley with it :) So yeah, even the dirtiest part of the grid is easier to keep clean than a fleet of random cars.

As for charging when you don't have a nice garage at home - cities are installing chargers in parking spaces. They tend to be in places where you are liable to park for a while anyhow - shopping districts, malls, entertainment. In my little CO town of 40k people, we have chargers on Main St at hotels and at the concert hall. They're at the park where you can go walking along the river. They're at the library. They're at the mall and Sam's Club. They're at truck stops just off the interstate. If I still drove to work, I could charge at work. And this public infrastructure will only grow.

BTW, in case this wasn't clear, I am an optimist on everything but Subaru engine life expectancy :)

Battery lifespan (not counting the early Leafs) is looking like it's longer than ICE engines. Fast charging is the exception rather than the rule for private vehicles - there was a study on this recently, fast charging away from home was something like 6x/year for the average EV owner. For buses, that's going to be a daily thing so I wouldn't extrapolate from them.

Everyone seems to be holding out for the magic battery that will change everything, but there is constant improvement going on all the time. The price per KWh has dropped by 89% in the past decade. It's all incremental changes and volume production.

Here's owner-collected data on battery capacity over time.

noddaz said:

Slippery (Forum Supporter) said:

BFH_Garage said:

the farmers say they will make more leasing their land for solar, it will be interesting to see if we hit a point where we are taking too much productive farm land out of production for solar and create food supply issues. 

Put the solar farm in the desert. SW. 

Put the solar farm on top of every mall in the country.  Acres of real estate waiting to be used.

Good point. If you look at satelite images of the US, all of IKEA's roofs are plastered with solar panels. 

My question is do we have enough of the rare earth metals need to do all this. I mean between the batteries in cars, needed to solar setups, normal electronics, etc it seems like a lot of mining to be done. 

The environmental impact of all that mining isn't nothing. 

Oh good, this thread again. Has it really been a week?

Next to watch, the transmission of energy created by these additional sources, of green power.  Will they effect the stability  of the grid?  Unneeded capacity is going to create heat, how will that be captured?

When do we start talking about parking our cars on a "pad" that acts like a charging station.   Yes I know, rubber tires are an issue.

This is going to be fun to watch.

jr02518 said:

Next to watch, the transmission of energy created by these additional sources, of green power.  Will they effect the stability  of the grid?  Unneeded capacity is going to create heat, how will that be captured?

You just turn them off. Doesn't matter what color the power is, if the grid doesn't need it you don't put it into the grid and you shut down the generation. 

Electricity is actually pretty easy to distribute compared to other kinds of power. It's quite flexible, it's easy to set up temporary sources if necessary  and it's extremely well understood. Liquid/gaseous fuels are a lot more challenging.

The ecological results of mining gasoline is not zero either, and it gets worse if you spill it. As long as we keep schlepping meat sacks around, there's going to be a cost. 

93EXCivic said:

My question is do we have enough of the rare earth metals need to do all this. I mean between the batteries in cars, needed to solar setups, normal electronics, etc it seems like a lot of mining to be done. 

The environmental impact of all that mining isn't nothing. 

There will be mining no matter what. It might be some hard scrabble miner looking for gold or some other mineral. It might be some international mega corporation.  Doesn't much matter. The world isn't going back to the Middle Ages. 

This just came up on my youtube feed. Its a good watch whether you like the guy or not:

I'm not as informed as I'd like to be, but here's my take on "there's mining no matter what"

If we have a resource, and we mine it, hopefully as responsibly as possible, that has to be greener than having someone else mine something on the other side of the globe and transporting it here. The cost of possible spills during transit, the cost of transit itself, and some of the places mining these rare metals are a little less considerate of the environmental impact (or human impact) than other places. 
 

Again, I'm no expert, but there's more to the equation than "mining=mining"

That said, I say bring on the EVs. Especially the two wheeled variants. I need them to depreciate, which they won't do unless manufactured in great quantity. 

Slippery (Forum Supporter) said:

BFH_Garage said:

the farmers say they will make more leasing their land for solar, it will be interesting to see if we hit a point where we are taking too much productive farm land out of production for solar and create food supply issues. 

Put the solar farm in the desert. SW. 

They’re already out there.  We took a trip to Las Vegas in 2018 and saw multiple solar farms that likely covered several thousand acres.  On the Nevada / California border in the Mohave desert there are three heliostat solar plants that power steam generators just off the interstate. 

noddaz said:

Slippery (Forum Supporter) said:

BFH_Garage said:

the farmers say they will make more leasing their land for solar, it will be interesting to see if we hit a point where we are taking too much productive farm land out of production for solar and create food supply issues. 

Put the solar farm in the desert. SW. 

Put the solar farm on top of every mall in the country.  Acres of real estate waiting to be used.

Cover the parking lots too.  Keeps the cars cooler in summer and the rain and snow off of them in bad weather while really increasing the acreage of solar cells.

I feel we have gotten here largely because companies and citizens have not been pushing back against the gov't saying NO! WE DON'T WANT THIS!  Its largely too late as more and more 'pro-green' people get elected. I just hope gasoline remains affordable for the 25-30 years of life I have left.

We have a huge wind farm in this corner of Ohio, every attempt to expand it has been blocked. Farmers in the townships bordering the wind farm aren't willing to give up the land and a lot of people hate the sight of them. 
 

a local company set up a solar farm in the same area as the wind farm and a biodegradable energy generator. the stench from whatever they drain out of that system once a month has actually caused protests against the company. 
 

I'll drive my old ice car until I can't get any fuel too power it. I don't want anything to do with an electric vehicle, nothing beats the sounds of a v8 with a good exhaust for me. The cost of a new car plus having a charger installed is of zero interest too me. But I'm a dinosaur who still likes carburetors. 

frenchyd said:

93EXCivic said:

My question is do we have enough of the rare earth metals need to do all this. I mean between the batteries in cars, needed to solar setups, normal electronics, etc it seems like a lot of mining to be done. 

The environmental impact of all that mining isn't nothing. 

There will be mining no matter what. It might be some hard scrabble miner looking for gold or some other mineral. It might be some international mega corporation.  Doesn't much matter. The world isn't going back to the Middle Ages. 

You havent been on a mining site have you? Or seen the affects to the surrounding area from one? 

In reply to preach (fs) :

It's there, but have you met the dingus that the NCR put in charge of running it?  It's no wonder it doesn't produce any power.

In reply to frenchyd :

We are a customer owned non profit utility district. We are the only electric utility in our service area. Very large industrial loads along with our county, around 50,000 meters. We own a mix of renewables and buy most of our power from BPA which means hydro is the majority of our power. Our longest distribution lines are 20 miles or so but normally a few miles or less. 
Transmission line losses are generally around 3% or less depending on loading (losses are directly related to squared current, formula is (I^2)*R.  Distribution losses are around 2 or 3%, depending on how much underground you have in the mix, it is pretty lossy compared to overhead, but makes up for it a tiny bit because it tends to add capacitance. We run almost all of our substations at a lower voltage in order to help reduce losses a little since we have a very stout system running very lightly loaded most of the time. Also one of the reasons we have extremely high reliability and quick restoration times. 
The losses where you see the 35% overall must be including the initial losses in generation where you are using mostly thermal methods like coal or gas. 
Jcamper

11GTCS said:

They’re already out there.  We took a trip to Las Vegas in 2018 and saw multiple solar farms that likely covered several thousand acres.  On the Nevada / California border in the Mohave desert there are three heliostat solar plants that power steam generators just off the interstate. 

Unless I'm mistaken, Nevada, with its huge draw from Vegas, is one of the few States (regions?-you get the point), to consistently produce a power surplus. Very green vs. other places, too.