One of the problems with trying to freeze-proof Texans is that it's difficult to actually test if it's done right. Minnesota, no problem. It'll probably freeze next week. Texas, you need to wait for a decade or more.
One of the problems with trying to freeze-proof Texans is that it's difficult to actually test if it's done right. Minnesota, no problem. It'll probably freeze next week. Texas, you need to wait for a decade or more.
True, but why wouldn't the same weatherization strategy for cold that works in Minnesota work in Texas? In general these sorts of things aren't *that* specific.
Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) said:True, but why wouldn't the same weatherization strategy for cold that works in Minnesota work in Texas? In general these sorts of things aren't *that* specific.
$. The equipment to keep everything alive in the winter in MN costs money, if you don't "need" it in Texas except every once in awhile then you calculate the win/loss and go with it.
In reply to chandler :
The flaw with that logic is the costs when wrong involve humans.
chandler said:Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) said:True, but why wouldn't the same weatherization strategy for cold that works in Minnesota work in Texas? In general these sorts of things aren't *that* specific.
$. The equipment to keep everything alive in the winter in MN costs money, if you don't "need" it in Texas except every once in awhile then you calculate the win/loss and go with it.
They don't even need it everywhere though. They don't need complete redundancy. But they didn't really have it anywhere, and since they're on their own grid...
Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) said:True, but why wouldn't the same weatherization strategy for cold that works in Minnesota work in Texas? In general these sorts of things aren't *that* specific.
Because millions of houses and commercial buildings were built to entirely different standards. They are not weatherized the same- different insulation, different sealing, different parameters for HVAC, plumbing, utilities burial depths, etc.
Plus, the delta is drastically different. If the target goal in a building is 75*F and the normal exterior average temperature is 95*, the delta is 20*. When the temperature drops to 20*F, the delta is 55*. The systems aren't designed to handle that big a delta, and the massive additional electric load collapses the electric infrastructure.
Heck, the vast majority of buildings in the South are heated with heat pumps. That's really rare in cold regions.
I'm trying to put myself in the position of a Texan right now, for the future - I think that this will happen again, and sooner than expected. Living where I live, it is hard to do - I've always had gas heat, the longest a power outage has lasted for me is a day. Obviously natural gas is not a solution for most. Propane might be, but is expensive. I think I'd be adding a wood stove somewhere in the house, if there isn't a fireplace, storing water, and making sure that I have a minimum of a weeks worth of firewood stored (and a whole-house water shutoff that is easy to get to and works). Add in a generator and a space heater, and enough water stored, and that should get you and your house through unscathed. You may have to camp out in a single room, but that is fine.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:I'm trying to put myself in the position of a Texan right now, for the future - I think that this will happen again, and sooner than expected. Living where I live, it is hard to do - I've always had gas heat, the longest a power outage has lasted for me is a day. Obviously natural gas is not a solution for most. Propane might be, but is expensive. I think I'd be adding a wood stove somewhere in the house, if there isn't a fireplace, storing water, and making sure that I have a minimum of a weeks worth of firewood stored (and a whole-house water shutoff that is easy to get to and works). Add in a generator and a space heater, and enough water stored, and that should get you and your house through unscathed. You may have to camp out in a single room, but that is fine.
Before my first son was a year old, we were faced with a widespread power outage that lasted over a week in the aftermath of Hurricane Isabel. Given the time of year, heat wasn't really an issue, and given that my wife and I both did some camping, we were better prepared than many. Even so, it was a major wake-up call that led to me getting a generator, a source of non-potable water, and additional cooking, heating, and lighting equipment, and so were in much better shape to weather the next storm.
With the recent freezing rains, we were lucky to be without power no longer than 12 hours at a stretch. Propane gas logs make an excellent source of emergency heat, and I don't find the cost to be a factor for the little bit that we use them.
I do think we have a responsibility to be prepared.
We didn't lose power, but I had the generator, the power cords and the ceramic heater ready to go. I brought out the ski gear and was running around outside with an expensive ski parka, thermal underwear, hiking boots and battery powered gloves. I parked the Mustang with the slippery tires for my old Jeep XJ with four wheel drive, rock crawler bumpers and fenders that are cheap to replace. But then I grew up in the mountains and used to live in Colorado. Most people were not that well prepared.
As far as the infrastructure goes, there will be a lot of whining in the media until the question comes up as to who will pay for the upgrades. Or, how much more are you willing to pay on your monthly utility bill so we can afford the upgrades. Yes, YOUR monthly bill. You don't expect the investors to pick up the tab for wrapping the pipes and putting in more insulation, do you? Let the government pay? Pffffht. This is Texas. Do you want the City of Dallas to buy snowplows. Would you like that added to your property taxes or do we need another gas tax. Yeah. This is Texas. We don't like taxes. I don't see that anything will change in the long run. Time to do maintenance on the generator, change the flashlight batteries and check the cold weather clothing. The next time this happens we will be on our own again.
chandler said:$. The equipment to keep everything alive in the winter in MN costs money, if you don't "need" it in Texas except every once in awhile then you calculate the win/loss and go with it.
Everything costs money and is a cost/benefit analysis, and it looks like this one went to E36 M3. What did everyone lose (productivity, revenue, returned funds from the governent saying you can't gouge with spot pricing)?
To clarify my point was about plant/generator/grid winterization/resilience not consumer side like a few people replied. I get how that is different, and a whole separate question.
frenchyd said:In reply to chandler :
The flaw with that logic is the costs when wrong involve humans.
Oh, that can very much be (and almost certainly has been at least in the past) part of the calculation.
Narrator : [20:35] A new car built by my company leaves somewhere traveling at 60 mph. The rear differential locks up. The car crashes and burns with everyone trapped inside. Now, should we initiate a recall? Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don't do one.
Exactly
It's very uncomfortable for some people to realize that loss of life is a business calculation.
But it is.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:It's very uncomfortable for some people to realize that loss of life is a business calculation.
But it is.
The uncomfortable part is actually assigning value to it. What is the value of a life? What is the value of a year? What about for someone living in Somalia vs. Harlem vs. Manhattan?
I'll leave that to the actuaries.
In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :
You're overthinking it.
The actuaries do not assign a value to life. They assign a value to financial loss and call it a day.
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:We didn't lose power, but I had the generator, the power cords and the ceramic heater ready to go. I brought out the ski gear and was running around outside with an expensive ski parka, thermal underwear, hiking boots and battery powered gloves. I parked the Mustang with the slippery tires for my old Jeep XJ with four wheel drive, rock crawler bumpers and fenders that are cheap to replace. But then I grew up in the mountains and used to live in Colorado. Most people were not that well prepared.
As far as the infrastructure goes, there will be a lot of whining in the media until the question comes up as to who will pay for the upgrades. Or, how much more are you willing to pay on your monthly utility bill so we can afford the upgrades. Yes, YOUR monthly bill. You don't expect the investors to pick up the tab for wrapping the pipes and putting in more insulation, do you? Let the government pay? Pffffht. This is Texas. Do you want the City of Dallas to buy snowplows. Would you like that added to your property taxes or do we need another gas tax. Yeah. This is Texas. We don't like taxes. I don't see that anything will change in the long run. Time to do maintenance on the generator, change the flashlight batteries and check the cold weather clothing. The next time this happens we will be on our own again.
Some smart lawyers will make a fortune out of the deaths involved. But as been said that has been calculated in. Each death is worth Xamount of dollars.
But maybe one of those smart lawyers will figure out a way to punish the Investors who demanded that rate of return. Not only loss of income, but loss of net worth.
Yes I know it's unprecedented but why? Why shouldn't the cause of death be held responsible simply because his money isolates him from culpability?
Here is what happened today in Dallas.
Thousands showed up at Fair Park and lined up for vaccinations even though they were told not to come if you didn't have an appointment and today is for second vaccinations only. People without appointments were packing the lines and causing a traffic jam around the neighborhood.
Imagine, if you will, that there are a lot of not so bright people in Texas who don't follow instructions well. Imagine these people not knowing what to do when the power goes out and the heat goes off, then freezing to death. Imagine people starting up generators inside their living rooms in order to charge up their phones and run their flat screens then dying of carbon monoxide poisoning. That was last week. This week the survivors are all lining up like sheep for five hours for vaccinations they are not going to get and possibly getting infected with Covid in the process because large crowds of unvaccinated people is not really a safe place to be.
You might be able to insulate a power plant and buy snowplows for the airport, but you can't fix stupid.
I work in the natural gas industry, at a utility.
We obviously get some corporate messaging that tells us "no so fast on the whole relying on renewables thing."
One thing that has been interesting is because our gas division is owned by a much larger electric division (who benefits from electrification initiatives in its city) ,corporate has a hard time addressing the issues in Texas.
They can't say "windmills did this!" Because well...we own windmills.
They can't say "it's all the natural gas power plants!" Because we own those too.
And they sure as hell won't say "this is what happens when regulators don't prepare for the worst, and ask that at least SOME generating plants prepare for cold weather events" because no business really wants more regulation.
I am still surprised at the people within my company though who are pointing the finger at the windmills freezing up. I don't think that's corporate, I think that's other media who lead with the byline early on influencing their opinions.
Lets be clear about this: You've got an A or B choice.
A) we force an electrification movement but you make damn sure we have lots of backups, a far more reliable local/state/national grid, and probably will need to not only massively increase windmills and solar panels but we'll also need other forms of baseload generation.
B) We make everything far more efficient, whether its natural gas appliances, utility scale natural gas generators, coal power plants, alongside nukes and renewables, but also at the micro scale by giving homeowners huge perks for re-insulating their homes. You work towards electrification in new builds ONLY when the local grid can supply those communities with uninterrupted electric. I might even advocate that all-electric homes have backup generators either on property or within a shared subdivision/HOA.
When I look at that as both a DIYer homeowner/remodeller and someone who works in the utility industry, I actually think B is far more likely and would be quicker to put into action than A.
I'm 100% on board with a greener future, but I believe we need consumer/public protections in place prior to that changeover - otherwise we'll have agencies like ERCOT and utilities nationwide saying "well you forced us to use renewables so here's what you get" while ignoring their own failures in regulating safeguards.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:It's very uncomfortable for some people to realize that loss of life is a business calculation.
But it is.
If you’re easily offended, don’t watch.
Texas was not the only area to experience power problems last week. And there were even parts of Texas that aren’t under ERCOT that had the SAME EXACT PROBLEMS.
In reply to racerfink :
Can you post something from a reliable journalism source instead of some guys YT channel?
This guy could be 100% spot on in everything he says, but I don't have an hour to spend doing fact checking to find out.
It was a once in 100 year event. Maybe we just have to suck it up, fix the damage and move on.
In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :
OK but what if it wasn't "once in 100 years"? Didn't remarkably similar versions of this occur in 1989 and again in 2011? Not to mention the reliance on electricity for all the things seems more prevalent in Texas than here in the northeast. We have a 5 KW portable generator and I can have this house running like nothing's wrong for days at a time if necessary because the heat and all major appliances (even the clothes dryer) are natural gas. I don't think that's the case at all in your area, all electric means huge current draw. (With some care to what we use I can run my entire house on less than 20 amps / 240 V. That's not happening with electric heat / water heater / stove, etc.) Add to that the life / safety aspects of losing power for a lot of folks and I think the utilities need to do their part to be prepared.
I will agree with you that it would be helpful if the general public could be a little more prepared for when things don't go exactly to plan. There are plenty of people in my area that have zero coping skills as well, it's not limited to Texas by any means.
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:It was a once in 100 year event. Maybe we just have to suck it up, fix the damage and move on.
This is the proper answer.
Spending billions of dollars to prepare for a once-in-a-lifetime event is pretty stupid.
Toyman01 (Moderately Supportive Dude) said:This is the proper answer.
Spending billions of dollars to prepare for a once-in-a-lifetime event is pretty stupid.
Except the 1 in 100 is happening every few years now. Spending to prevent catastrophic damage and loss of life, business revenue/continuity, etc is an *investment* not just a sunk cost. IIRC the losses from this latest incident were in the realm of $28B
You'll need to log in to post.
