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1988RedT2
1988RedT2 MegaDork
3/26/24 4:31 p.m.
RevRico said:

In reply to dculberson :

How many lives are worth it to lose before the money to adequately protect the bridges that we know are vulnerable to ship strike makes sense?

You better believe there are formulas to figure this out. Insurance companies have these numbers, auto makers have these numbers and weigh them before recalls, ship builders, it stands to reason that other engineering sections would too. 

Just because it's rather cold and not fun to think about doesn't mean it's not real. If something like this only happens every 40 years, frankly the lawsuits from the lost and ruined lives are worth less money than all the red tape and labor to make upgrades to prevent a maybe maybe not situation would have been. A drop in the bucket compared to the rebuild costs for sure, but that is it's own problem.

We cannot bubble wrap the world, we can't plan for every possibility. Even if engineering to 100% beyond current capabilities, we're eventually going to get past that size/capability/capacity. How future proof should we make things if we can't predict the future?

At the same time, a much bigger problem than ships hitting bridges is bridges crumbling and falling apart from neglect and years of offput maintenance because the money always needed to go elsewhere or get trimmed for a budget. Which should be the focus for the limited available annual funds? Fixing known problems that could totally cripple an area or trying to protect from random events? There's only so much money to go around, and there's more hands in the cookie jar than ever before. 

What's this?  The voice of reason?  How dare you, sir! 

cheeky

Steve_Jones
Steve_Jones UltraDork
3/26/24 4:39 p.m.
dculberson said:
Steve_Jones said:
dculberson said:
Mr_Asa said:
Steve_Jones said:

 

You can not plan for something that might happen one time in 40 years...

You can't, no.  However when designing something you do have to take into account worst case scenarios and in long term projects you have to take growth into account.  Your figures might be off on those, but you have to do it. 

Brainstorming for the case of a ship hitting one of the supports probably happened at some point.

Yeah, dolphins can be added to an existing bridge just fine. They only had 44 years to plan and execute, it didn't exactly have to be a last minute thing. 

44 years of no issues.  Blimps have been flying over stadiums for over 50 years and none have ever crashed into the crowd. A roof can be added to an existing stadium just fine so lets require all stadiums to retrofit a roof just in case, right?

How many people have been killed by blimps crashing into stadiums? How many have been killed by ships crashing into bridges? How many lives are worth it to lose before the money to adequately protect the bridges that we know are vulnerable to ship strike makes sense?

Don't make up farcical situations to defend your position. It does you no favors.

Until a few hours ago no one had been killed by a ship running into this bridge that is 47 years old. No lives were lost, yet people here keep saying something should have been done, why?

If building a roof on a stadium in case of a blimp crash is foolish because no blimps have killed people, building this bridge up to protect it from 1 rogue ship was foolish, yet you think it should have been done.

Steve_Jones
Steve_Jones UltraDork
3/26/24 4:44 p.m.
Mr_Asa said:

In reply to Steve_Jones :

Not sure why you keep moving the goal posts to blimps and cars.  Regardless I'm not interested in debating those topics and you don't want to talk about the actual bridge so I'm out. 

I'm pointing out you want people to prepare for something that might happen in the future.  Lets talk about this bridge then.  Millions of ships have gone under this bridge for 40 plus years with no issues, why would someone have assumed a ship that did not exist, might lose power at a specific point and hit the bridge? You want them to have assumed that exact situation when building the bridge, why? Up until Today there was 0 indication an issue because it had not happened in any on the millions of times it could have.

Marjorie Suddard
Marjorie Suddard General Manager
3/26/24 4:55 p.m.

Wow, this bitter arguing of a bunch of hypotheticals makes y'all look super cool.

 

 

Said no one ever.

I'll just leave this here: https://grassrootsmotorsports.com/forum/off-topic-discussion/forum-rules-welcome-to-the-party/104340/page1/

Margie

Steve_Jones
Steve_Jones UltraDork
3/26/24 4:59 p.m.

In reply to Marjorie Suddard :

I agree with you. Until yesterday,  a boat of this size taking out this bridge was a hypothetical situation, yet people think somebody should've done something before it happened. 

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa MegaDork
3/26/24 5:01 p.m.
chandler said:
Mr_Asa said:

In reply to Steve_Jones :

Not sure why you keep moving the goal posts to blimps and cars.  Regardless I'm not interested in debating those topics and you don't want to talk about the actual bridge so I'm out. 

His analogy is actually on point.

How?  Its desperately flawed.

Cars are personally owned disposable assets (whether we on this board want them to be or not, they are disposable.)  A 1977 vehicle is only on the road because of weirdos like us.  If two cars get into an accident you've got maybe $100k in damage if both are brand new luxury models.  The scale is nowhere near comparable.

Also, yes, my chair does have arms on it and I am an engineer.  What's your point?

Marjorie Suddard
Marjorie Suddard General Manager
3/26/24 5:03 p.m.

I'm not sure you two are pickin' up what I'm puttin' down.

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa MegaDork
3/26/24 5:08 p.m.

In reply to Marjorie Suddard :

Saw your post after that one.  Had it keyed up when I got in the car and hit post after I got home.  My bad.

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
3/26/24 5:08 p.m.
RevRico said:

In reply to dculberson :

How many lives are worth it to lose before the money to adequately protect the bridges that we know are vulnerable to ship strike makes sense?

You better believe there are formulas to figure this out. Insurance companies have these numbers, auto makers have these numbers and weigh them before recalls, ship builders, it stands to reason that other engineering sections would too. 

Just because it's rather cold and not fun to think about doesn't mean it's not real. If something like this only happens every 40 years, frankly the lawsuits from the lost and ruined lives are worth less money than all the red tape and labor to make upgrades to prevent a maybe maybe not situation would have been. A drop in the bucket compared to the rebuild costs for sure, but that is it's own problem.

We cannot bubble wrap the world, we can't plan for every possibility. Even if engineering to 100% beyond current capabilities, we're eventually going to get past that size/capability/capacity. How future proof should we make things if we can't predict the future?

At the same time, a much bigger problem than ships hitting bridges is bridges crumbling and falling apart from neglect and years of offput maintenance because the money always needed to go elsewhere or get trimmed for a budget. Which should be the focus for the limited available annual funds? Fixing known problems that could totally cripple an area or trying to protect from random events? There's only so much money to go around, and there's more hands in the cookie jar than ever before. 

Just like Edward Norton's character in Fight Club talks about companies using a formula to determine whether there should be a recall. 

"A new car built by my company leaves somewhere traveling at 60 mph. The rear differential locks up. The car crashes and burns with everyone trapped inside. Now, should we initiate a recall? Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don't do one."

Duke
Duke MegaDork
3/26/24 5:08 p.m.

You two, DO NOT get this thread locked.

 

BoulderG
BoulderG Reader
3/26/24 5:35 p.m.

Anyone think this will prompt a review of bridge, tunnel, and road maintenance and repair?
Seems like many states have 'imperfect' funding methods, whether it's privately owned toll roads or diverted or easily-cut funding, and much more.

This was a sudden and catastrophic accident. Will it change things systemically?

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
3/26/24 5:47 p.m.
Fueled by Caffeine said:

<dad hat on>. Couple years ago we had two young women go missing. Found out that they went into a retention pond in the winter. Couldn't get out and drowned.  Bought these. In my car now.  </dad hat off>
 

https://a.co/d/i3FrseT

resqme. Designed by a fire fighter made in USA. 
 

Not that falling off a bridge that big would allow us to survive. But you know. 

They're also a good thing to keep on the keychain of a dual-use car because they can be handy for escaping a car with a 3pt belt and full windows that's upside-down and on fire.

clutchsmoke
clutchsmoke UberDork
3/26/24 5:49 p.m.

In reply to BoulderG :

Probably not. I'm very pessimistic.

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa MegaDork
3/26/24 5:50 p.m.
BoulderG said:

Anyone think this will prompt a review of bridge, tunnel, and road maintenance and repair?

Did the derailment of that train in Ohio change any of the rules and regs of the railways?

Unfortunately... 

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
3/26/24 6:01 p.m.

Regarding the bridge, yeah it looks like it was a worst-case freak accident of losing power at the worst possible moment, and it would be somewhere between highly impractical and impossible to build something to protect a bridge from a huge container ship slamming into it. Considering how vulnerable this bridge was it might've been a decent idea to have a tug Ford Econobox for certain ships passing under it.

Wacky idea that might actually work: Emergency interceptor drone tug stationed near the bridge? If a ship calls in with trouble or gets too close, it dives in from a chute like a lifeboat and can push the stricken ship away from the bridge, and can be controlled remotely by whoever's on watch. EV powertrain for minimal maintenance and maximum reliability, and it should only have to run for a few minutes at a time anyway.

Streetwiseguy
Streetwiseguy MegaDork
3/26/24 6:09 p.m.

How about a big-ass pile of rocks in front of the supports?  

That container ship couldn't have possible hit more directly.  Lucky shot...

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
3/26/24 6:11 p.m.

In reply to Streetwiseguy :

The problem with the pile of rocks is that the better it protects the bridge, the more it narrows the passage under the bridge, and a pile of rocks big enough to protect the bridge from a container ship would likely dam up the river entirely...

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse UltimaDork
3/26/24 6:15 p.m.

In reply to GameboyRMH :

And as was mentioned on Page 1, there are multiple channels under this bridge (well, were) so piles o rocks gets tricky to do. 

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
3/26/24 6:24 p.m.
No Time
No Time UltraDork
3/26/24 6:47 p.m.

Not to argue, but to bring light to the process. 

When evaluating the risk of something like this happening, there is a limit to how many faults you take into account and what is the probability of each of the faults. 

Hypothetically , let's say the probability of the mechanical failure is 1/1000. Then let's assume they ship can leave when ready regardless of tide direction so probability the tide is outgoing is 2/4, and assume the there is 3 hours of the tide where it's moving fast enough to create the catastrophic impact, so 3/6. Finally let's spitball and say it's a 1/1000 chance the ship hits the bridge head on. 

1/1000*2/4*3/6*1/1000 = 1/4,000,000= 0.000025% chance of it happening. 

In reality the odds are probably even lower and there are more things that would need to line up for the accident today. 

At what point do you draw the line for taking action? 

DeadSkunk  (Warren)
DeadSkunk (Warren) MegaDork
3/26/24 7:07 p.m.

Note the barriers constructed around the the power line poles. Bigger than the bridge supports. Someone thought to protect them.

CDN media

NermalSnert (Forum Supporter)
NermalSnert (Forum Supporter) HalfDork
3/26/24 7:13 p.m.

The comments under the video are informing.

secretariata (Forum Supporter)
secretariata (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
3/26/24 7:17 p.m.

So, I debated posting anything, but as a bridge engineer for over 25 years I'm gonna go ahead and shoot myself in the foot...My post is not intended to start, continue, or finish any arguments.

As I'm sure we all are aware, our highway infrastructure is funded by taxes.  Primarily the federal and state taxes on fuels (gasoline and diesel) with some states adding additional user fees to vehicle registration, licensing, and such to contribute.  We as citizens generally express a dislike for taxes and wish them to be as low as possible.  Politicians write legislation which creates or raises taxes and are very aware that the citizenry is not in favor of taxes.  As a result they want to get some positive recognition for the good done by the taxes they impose to help offset the negative press from passing or raising taxes.  This means that money available for maintenance and repairs to the highway infrastructure is very limited because this type of work goes largely unnoticed unless it adversely impacts traffic.  There is no ribbon cutting, no new shorter or faster way to get from A to B, no new bridge crossing the river - no photo op where the politicians can be seen with your shiny new infrastructure. 

So, until the last decade or so very small amounts of money were available to perform needed maintenance and keep our highway system in tip top shape.  As a result, the system is in a significant state of disrepair.  In the past decade or so this has started to get attention and some additional funding is being allocated now specifically for maintenance activities.  It is still not enough to address all the needs, so we occasionally have a major issue resulting in a bridge being posted for lower loads, being closed or even collapsing like the Fern Hollow Bridge in Pittsburg last year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-VnWB4fiFk

To relate this to the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, no owner is going to spend several years worth of their very limited bridge maintenance budget to add additional collision protection to a bridge that has been in service for most of it's design life (50 years for most bridges constructed prior to 2010) without a major incident.  Most states have hundreds of bridges that are deteriorated enough to be posted for reduced loads and hundreds more that are on the verge of being load posted if they are not repaired soon.  The millions of dollars required to retrofit a collision protection system on the FSK Bridge would allow repairs to and/or replacement of dozens of other bridges that are in poor condition. 

I don't work for or with the MDSHA so I don't know any specifics of the condition of the FSK Bridge prior to the collapse, but it is possible that MDSHA was already starting to plan for it's replacement at some future date.  Also, federal regulations prohibit the use of federal money to replace a bridge that has had federally funded, non-emergency, repair work for a period of 10 years after the repair work is done.  So, if the MDSHA was starting to plan replacement of the FSK Bridge that would be even more reason not to spend money on additional pier protection as it could further delay a replacement contract.

When this bridge was designed (early 1970's) the design requirements for vessel collision were very limited and as noted in earlier posts, the size and more importantly the mass of ocean going vessels was significantly less than the humongous container vessels being built and used today.  Also, I'm sure that there were significantly fewer ocean going vessels traversing the world. The world economy was different and many industries that no longer exist in the US were producing goods here that were transported to consumers by rail and truck rather than being imported by ship from other countries.

Vessel collision design requirements for new bridges are significantly better than they were in the 1970's and they are based on the types/sizes of vessels that use the waterway.  The resulting costs are included in the costs for the new bridge which if eligible would receive a significant amount of federal funding compared to the limited amount of bridge maintenance funding available to retrofit pier protection to an older bridge. 

As Toyman posted, the Ravenel Bridge over the Cooper River in Charleston, SC has huge rock islands around it's main piers.  The rocks are as large as a car and were imported by barge from Newfoundland Canada.  I couldn't find how many tons or the total cost for these rock islands, but I'm sure it was in the 10's of millions of dollars.  Also, the rock islands are much larger than the photo shows as they slope away from the piers below the water line.  Again, I could not find what the slope was, but as a minimum it would be at least 2 foot horizontally for every foot vertically (so 10 feet below water the edge of the rock would be a minimum of 20 feet further out than it is at the water line).  So the first line of defense is to keep the vessel from contacting the piers and again the design specifications would dictate how far is far enough based on the vessels using the waterway.  If the layout did not meet the requirements to prevent contact, then a collsion force would be determined based on the types of vessels and how much energy the protection system could absorb and the piers would be designed to withstand that impact.  Also, the Ravenel bridge was designed over 20 years ago and the requirements have continued to change (hopefully for the better) over that time.

TLDR:  It is perfectly reasonable that MDSHA hasn't spent a significant amount of their very limited bridge maintenance dollars on upgrading the pier protection system for the FSK Bridge which has served 94% of it's design life without a major ship impact prior to today.  Especially considering there are probably hundreds of structurally deficient bridges in MD which need those dollars to prevent them from collapsing due to deteriorated components.

NermalSnert (Forum Supporter)
NermalSnert (Forum Supporter) HalfDork
3/26/24 7:23 p.m.

I real curious to know  why the bar pilot chose astern propulsion (if he did) over ahead the couple of times he got power back.

alfadriver
alfadriver MegaDork
3/26/24 7:57 p.m.

In reply to secretariata (Forum Supporter) :

In commerce situations like this, do the shippers know the cost of problems like this?  The lost commerce would go a long way paying for repairs- plus, they should also share in bridge construction since they have specific needs to meet?  (Yes that is a question, even poorly worded)

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