From 4.5K EVs, to 1 million in 7 years?

A story on the German equivalent of BBC, as broadcast on PBS, said yesterday that the German government is shooting for a target of 1 million electric vehicles on the roads of Germany by 2020. Right now, there are only 4 thousand 5 hundred. Due to the current economic climate in Europe, NO financial incentives (like we have in the USA) will be offered. Ms. Merkel's government has proclaimed that the German car manufacturers need to build electric vehicles that will be attractive to consumers.

So, is that 1 million target realistic?

BTW, there are currently 43 million vehicles registered in Germany, so the 1 million represents about 2% of the market. (Not sure what per cent of the market EVs have in the USA.) Market for EVs is currently about .0001% in Germany.

Bmw is rolling out a new ev next year. That should certainly help but I don't see a million being realistic.

Dunno, how many new cars are sold per year?

By 2020 I'd guess that about 2 out of 3 new cars sold will be electric.

Depends on gas prices. I would guess that if the were to naturally triple (or triple through taxation) then the market for EVs would grow quite a lot. People make a lot of idiotic financial decisions at the personal level, but the behavior of the group is pretty rational.

integraguy wrote: A story on the German equivalent of BBC, as broadcast on PBS, said yesterday that the German government is shooting for a target of 1 million electric vehicles on the roads of Germany by 2020. Right now, there are only 4 thousand 5 hundred. Due to the current economic climate in Europe, NO financial incentives (like we have in the USA) will be offered. Ms. Merkel's government has proclaimed that the German car manufacturers need to build electric vehicles that will be attractive to consumers. So, is that 1 million target realistic?

Assuming that all EVs stay on the road, that still means well over 100k per year on average. With a progressive sales curve such as you'd expect with a technological ramp-up, this may mean over a third-million in 2019 sales.

That's a lot.

There are EVs produced by the German Big Three but I don't know how mass-produceable they are.

It's not bad to have lofty goals, of course.

I don't quite see how there aren't going to be tax incentives. That $12/gallon fuel isn't expensive because they transport it by bucket chain. It's mostly taxes, which EV drivers won't have to pay.

There might be another "hidden" tax incentive, although it's fairly minor. In Germany, the annual car property tax/registration is calculated using engine displacement, using different multiplicators depending on which European emissions standard the car complies with. Drivers of older vehicles tend to get serious screwed by that - when I left Germany in the late 90s it was something around DM30-DM40 (approx E15-E20) per 100cc if you had an older (like early-mid 80s) car, and I can't see that having gone down since.

Trucks are taxed by gross weight instead and I have a suspicion that this is the case for EVs as well, which would make them a lot cheaper from a tax perspective.

However the point that makes me file the whole thing under alternative energy election hot air is that there are also plans afoot to retire at least some of the older nuclear reactors and replace them with renewable energy plants. In the short term at least that is going to drive up electricity prices which aren't exactly cheap anyway. Top this off with the German economy not exactly doing very well, average incomes that having been heading towards the toilet for at least a decade if not longer and I'm wondering who is going to buy these EVs.

BoxheadTim wrote: I'm wondering who is going to buy these EVs.

Most likely, people who would have otherwise bought a high fuel economy car. (People don't think "Hmm, do I want to buy a Volt, or a Suburban?" They think "Do I buy a Volt, or a Leaf, or a Jetta TDI?") So, the EV would be displacing a 50-70mpg car from being sold.

Fleet economy will eventually be better if the EVs have the longevity of liquid-fueled cars, but in the short term the fleet average fuel consumption won't change much.

What about commercial vehicles? Imagine a Sprinter, charged up on nuke power overnight, and with a long line of batteries under the floor. Workstations could run all day without having to run the engine.

Knurled wrote: Most likely, people who would have otherwise bought a high fuel economy car. (People don't think "Hmm, do I want to buy a Volt, or a Suburban?" They think "Do I buy a Volt, or a Leaf, or a Jetta TDI?") So, the EV would be displacing a 50-70mpg car from being sold.

There is that, but EVs so far are a lot more expensive compared to a Jetta (keep in mind that the Jetta is more expensive in Germany than over here), hence the various tax incentives.

GameboyRMH wrote: Dunno, how many new cars are sold per year? By 2020 I'd guess that about 2 out of 3 new cars sold will be electric.

Did you know 9 out of 10 statistics are made up??

I believe Germany is pretty heavy in alternative power sources. Combine that with a good environment for tiny shortish ranged cars, it could be a big market. That big though?

it would be nice if the government would stay out of the business of telling people what kinds of cars they should buy and just let the markets figure it out.. if the price of oil becomes too expensive, people will start to buy coal powered- oops, i mean electric- cars.

novaderrik wrote: it would be nice if the government would stay out of the business of telling people what kinds of cars they should buy and just let the markets figure it out.. if the price of oil becomes too expensive, people will start to buy coal powered- oops, i mean electric- cars.

Check the numbers. Only about 40% of our power is produced by coal in the US, and the numbers are dropping.

And, yeah, I do like a situation where the marketplace allows various forms of propulsion to compete, and lets consumers pick what is best for their situation. In order for it to be "alternative" energy, there needs to be alternatives.

The downside is that consumers tend to be really short sighted, and markets react to that, rather than trying to innovate and explore new solutions that might not be immediately economically viable. Why spend time and money putting together an "Arrested Development" when you can just throw on a "Honey BooBoo" and people will lap it up?

So I think the role of Government becomes one of fostering a climate where the private sector can explore viable technologies that may not be immediately marketable, but have demonstrable potential in a future marketplace.

I'll stop before I get too floundery, but I think the bottom line is that in 10-12 years, cars that operate primarily on electric power will be as commonplace as hybrids are today. It won't even be a big deal anymore.

jg

They've got to get cheaper though. Electric vehicles, with limited range, are not going to be a families first choice on the road trip. Hell, it won't be the first choice anytime your going someplace where you cant get a charge.

The electric vehicle will likely be the around town, commute, go get groceries vehicle. Manufactures should build cars around that use.

I'm thinking if there was a $15,000 new electric, even if it only had a range of 150 miles, it would sell like hotcakes.

GameboyRMH wrote: Dunno, how many new cars are sold per year?

In Europe, roughly 15-16M annually. Not sure of that are replacing cars that are premaently being removed.

novaderrik wrote: it would be nice if the government would stay out of the business of telling people what kinds of cars they should buy and just let the markets figure it out.. if the price of oil becomes too expensive, people will start to buy coal powered- oops, i mean electric- cars.

If cars didn't have a signifciant impact on, well, everything, it could.

But roads, air, parking, safety, etc etc etc.

JG Pasterjak wrote: I'll stop before I get too floundery, but I think the bottom line is that in 10-12 years, cars that operate primarily on electric power will be as commonplace as hybrids are today. It won't even be a big deal anymore. jg

They may become a lot more common, but there are some really big challenges that batteries still need to solve- total energy stored and speed of storage. A minor offshoot- emergency energy dump (picture how 15 gal of fuel burns- not explodes. picture what happens if you short your simple little lead acid battery).

JG Pasterjak wrote:

novaderrik wrote: it would be nice if the government would stay out of the business of telling people what kinds of cars they should buy and just let the markets figure it out.. if the price of oil becomes too expensive, people will start to buy coal powered- oops, i mean electric- cars.

Check the numbers. Only about 40% of our power is produced by coal in the US, and the numbers are dropping. And, yeah, I do like a situation where the marketplace allows various forms of propulsion to compete, and lets consumers pick what is best for their situation. In order for it to be "alternative" energy, there needs to be alternatives. The downside is that consumers tend to be really short sighted, and markets react to that, rather than trying to innovate and explore new solutions that might not be immediately economically viable. Why spend time and money putting together an "Arrested Development" when you can just throw on a "Honey BooBoo" and people will lap it up? So I think the role of Government becomes one of fostering a climate where the private sector can explore viable technologies that may not be immediately marketable, but have demonstrable potential in a future marketplace. I'll stop before I get too floundery, but I think the bottom line is that in 10-12 years, cars that operate primarily on electric power will be as commonplace as hybrids are today. It won't even be a big deal anymore. jg

which is why the government not offering any incentives to potential buyers of electric cars and instead saying "car companies - go make electrics!" doesn't make a ton of sense. the (seemingly) logical solution if the government wants more people to buy EVs would be to incentivise the buyer so that the more expensive EV could compete with traditional IC and hybrid powered vehicles. no?

novaderrik wrote: it would be nice if the government would stay out of the business of telling people what kinds of cars they should buy and just let the markets figure it out.. if the price of oil becomes too expensive, people will start to buy coal powered- oops, i mean electric- cars.

The government in every country is involved in every single aspect of transportation, so why would they stay out of that one specific aspect? They build and maintain the roads, tax the fuel, register the vehicles, test, license, and police the drivers... I'm just confused as to why they then should never, ever make a suggestion as to what kind of car they would like to see people buy?

JG Pasterjak wrote: ...when you can just throw on a "Honey BooBoo" and people will lap it up?...

There's a Honey BooBoo car!?!

alfadriver wrote:

JG Pasterjak wrote: I'll stop before I get too floundery, but I think the bottom line is that in 10-12 years, cars that operate primarily on electric power will be as commonplace as hybrids are today. It won't even be a big deal anymore. jg

They may become a lot more common, but there are some really big challenges that batteries still need to solve- total energy stored and speed of storage. A minor offshoot- emergency energy dump (picture how 15 gal of fuel burns- not explodes. picture what happens if you short your simple little lead acid battery).

Yeah, there are some huge hurdles ahead that won't be solvable without either unforeseen advances in battery tech or wholesale changes in infrastructure.

Another big hurdle is basic physics. For example, it takes about 9kw to move my Volt 40ish miles. Even if you knocked 1000lbs off of the weight, it's still going to take about the same amount of energy to move a similar distance. But physically transferring 9kw of power from point A to point B is a time-intensive undertaking, unless you're lightning.

There's lots of folks experimenting with things like inductive charging and vibrational energy recovery, and there's lots of potential there, but implementing such advances would require some serious infrastructure adjustments. Long term I think there will be some solutions out there worth investing in when it comes to infrastructure changes to accommodate electric vehicles, but I don't know what they are. Right now I think we're seeing a lot of Betamax answers, and we're waiting for a few VHSs to poke their heads above the fray.

jg

JG Pasterjak wrote: Right now I think we're seeing a lot of Betamax answers, and we're waiting for a few VHSs to poke their heads above the fray. jg

Interesting analogy. So you're suggesting that the technologically superior solution will be E36 M3-canned in favor of the one that wins a popularity contest?

I have a hard time believing that electrics are the way of the future. I mean it seems like we are going to run into the same issues as gas in that the materials to make batteries are one non-renewable and limited in quantity. Plus making batteries is incredibly dirty and making the power to charge them is not too clean.

1988RedT2 wrote:

JG Pasterjak wrote: Right now I think we're seeing a lot of Betamax answers, and we're waiting for a few VHSs to poke their heads above the fray. jg

Interesting analogy. So you're suggesting that the technologically superior solution will be E36 M3-canned in favor of the one that wins a popularity contest?

Zing!

Point taken. I'll go back to the analogorium and come up with something better.

jg

93EXCivic wrote: I have a hard time believing that electrics are the way of the future. I mean it seems like we are going to run into the same issues as gas in that the materials to make batteries are one non-renewable and limited in quantity. Plus making batteries is incredibly dirty and making the power to charge them is not too clean.

We all need to stop thinking this way. Electrics are not THE future, they're A future. At least I hope they are. Just like I hope there's a place for gas, diesel, biodiesel, fuel cell, and whatever else smart people come up with that makes sense. The whole thing that makes alternative energy appealing is if there are actual ALTERNATIVES.

jg