nocones wrote:
So why are costs rising so much?
The trend clearly shows that the ACA is clearly not the only cause, but those graphs should not reflect any impact of the the ACA (i.e. it might get worse).
It appears that the "cause" is multi-faceted. There is very likely not one true "cause" (although this is a very clear tendency in most argument about complex subjects). In general, it does not seem like insurance companies are taking huge profits out of the situation (they are heavily regulated) but there mere presence (very large companies, paying a lot of people to do things) must have a pretty big drag on the system.
Hard to say how much of it is legal. A Youtube video that Dr. Hess posted a while back talked of how Texas limited punitive damages in medical cases. The impact? He said it was around 1%... not so big.
Is it drug / medical device companies? Well, they clearly make a profit (which realistically, they need to). But, they used to make a LOT more, they are also pretty regulated. If they were the primary cause, cost would have taken a huge dip a few years ago.
One aspect that most don't talk about is how modern medicine is a bit of it Own Worst Enemy. By that I mean, most advances in medicine cure a new disease, or allow us to live longer, but they come (generally) and a higher (sometimes a LOT higher) cost. So as we are able to treat more and more things, cost will naturally rise.
As an example of the above, that I know about. There is a certain drug out there (I am sure they are others very similar) that will treat a form of advanced cancer. It does not cure the cancer, but it can extend the life of the user by a few months to a year. For this result, the drug will cost in the neighborhood of $50,000 dollars! I am generalizing a bit here, but you get the idea.
So, what do you do about that? At some point, you get to the point of "I am sorry, it's just to expensive to keep you alive, we are going to let you die". This point may get more common as technology marches on. A hope is that advances will also make things cheaper, but I think the issue will still exists. Maybe a push towards technology to decrease cost, rather then increase treatments (not where the money wants to go of course).
This brings up (and excuse me because this is a somewhat political area) the concept of the so called "death panels". If you don't think there is someone somewhere today (government or insurance) who is not making these decisions already, you are fooling yourself. End of Life Counseling (i.e. death panels) seem to me to be something that is GREATLY needed. I believe something like 80% of all medical expenses are generated in the last few years of life. (there is a certain political figure who raged against this and for that reason I believe that person deserves all the derision they get, I personally despise that person for that alone)
So, to summarize. Complex problem. No simple answer. I think the best we can do is start heading in the right direction once we figure out what that direction is. If there are people making money in the way... it won't be easy.