History in the making Part 2: War in the Middle East

On 10/7/2023, the Palestinian Hamas invaded Israel on a scale never seen with a large, coordinated, surprise attack, likely backed by Iran. Israel in return declared formal war for the first time since 1973. The US repositioned a CSG (Carrier Strike Group). Today Lebanese Hezbollah infiltrated as well, threatening a second front in Israel.

This one feels much harder to process as the history of the area, and the deep ties with religions, very much muddy who has what and when. You still have all of the same players in a simmering war in Syria as well. The civilians are already taking heavy tolls on both sides.

Israel doesn't usually fight with their hands tied behind their back. If the past is any indicator, this one won't last long as a hot war. They will stomp on the enemy hard and fast. 

Has anyone noticed we haven't really seen the stopping of fighting the World War One  1916 Sykes-Picot break up of the Ottoman Empire and the subsequent Balfour Declaration of 1917?   

100 years of war.     (Where have I heard that before?)

So what is the point of the USA sending a Carrier group there? Israel can defend itself. 

As I noted in the other thread, my reading of this is that Iran pushed Hamas to start something in hopes of derailing the Israeli-Saudi normalization process, which if successful would be a serious problem for both Teheran and Hamas. Hamas also has a domestic motivation, as its control of Gaza has not resolved the many problems that exist there, and it has come under some local criticism for its failure to govern effectively; once Israel starts shooting, all those complaints go away.

The danger in the situation, and the reason for the US CBG off the coast, is escalation (where have we heard that word before?). If Hezbollah starts anything serious from Lebanon, it will get very bad very quickly, as they are far more capable than Hamas. My instinct is that they are saying the right things to appease their supporters, and sending a few unfortunates south to make a little noise, but that they really don't want to be on the receiving end of a very pissed off Israel right now. Things could spiral out of control, certainly, but I don't get the sense that Hezbollah is looking to commit (if they were, why not do it in coordination with Hamas?). The worst-case scenario is that Israel decides to stomp the Iranians directly, in which case everything goes straight to hell very fast; I'm quite sure the US, the Saudis, the Chinese, and a lot of other governments are trying to make sure the Israelis don't activate their contingency plans for Iran until they've had a chance to really think about what that would mean (region-wide conflict, oil prices spiking, serious destabilization in moderate Arab states).

In reply to jharry3 :

There is a very rich literature on the post-WWI reshaping of the Middle East. David Fromkin's A Peace to End All Peace is one of the best.

It's worth noting that the very same Zionists who cheered the British in 1917 were blowing them up in 1946, then conspiring with them to invade Egypt in 1956. It's a volatile place, and you can't tell the players without a scorecard.

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

So what is the point of the USA sending a Carrier group there? Israel can defend itself. 

Pretty much the usual world police stuff. Be ready to stomp if the wrong people get involved (Iran), enact a UN mission (humanitarian or otherwise), and to facilitate arms support to Israel. 

The above is not meant to intone approval or disapproval, but paraphrase of https://www.reuters.com/world/us-announce-new-assistance-israel-after-hamas-attack-2023-10-08/

Personally, the whole situation over there is so loaded and complicated that I'm scared saying much could be a flounder.

Pretty sure  Oct 6  was the anniversary of the 1973 Arab-Israel war.  Big believer in coincidence I am not.

History makes the 1973 war look like the Arabs were baited into invading an enemy that was expecting the sucker punch. It did not end all that well for the Arab coalition.

Too early to tell who is baiting who in this slice of history.

What does not square  with me is the "surprise" factor. There had to be a lot of planning and logistics involved to get the missiles into Gaza; hundreds if not thousands of people in the loop.  Israeli intelligence has the reputation of being better than to let that happen in secret. Either Israeli intelligence is akin to russian military  might, or else the Israelis  knew and decided to let it play out.

I feel so sorry for the Palestinians that were just trying to live out their lives and raise their children while living on top of what amounts to a 141 sq mile landmine.

Listening to the descriptions of some of the videos (which I really have zero interest in seeing) that Hamas is PROUDLY sharing.... driving around civilian areas, randomly shooting civilians, kidnapping civilians, including woman (I will just let you image what is happening to them) and children (one video of Palestinian children hitting / taunting a Jewish child to say "mama" in Yiddish, who's mom was almost certainly murdered in front of him).....

The Israelis are not going to go easy with this one and I cannot image there are many semi-rational people / countries will have any support for Hamas after this.  But there is certainly cheering going on.

The Israelis have already started aerial bombardment of Gaza. By some of the explosions, you can tell (very narrow spouts of dirt, almost straight up) they are using deep penetrating bombs that are taking out tunnels.  In other case, they are taking out entire buildings with one shot (!), I am guessing by having them explode on the ground floor. 

Common practice BTW is for Israel to drop low yield "door knock" bombs first, to warn occupants to flee or by sending text messaging (? not sure how that works).  Apparently Hamas is telling residents to ignore these messages.  They want them in these buildings when they are hit.

Why would Hamas do this you ask?  Well, their existence is essentially based on being victims of Israeli aggression, be that real, perceived, or prompted by them.  It is common practice to launch rockets from next to schools, hospitals,  Mosques etc, so any reprisals have the highest chance of "notable" civilian deaths.

I don't know what the Israelis will do, but I suspect it will involved sweeping the entire Gaza area, clearing every house, and eliminating any weapons / factories they find.  This will certainly result in civilian casualties, if for nothing else, the only difference between a Hamas fighter, and a civilian, can be a headband, they can easily take off, or not wear one at all.  Israeli military will certainly die also, but they are VERY motivated now.

As for the future of Gaza (this is a strip in southern Israel, next to Egypt, so not to be confused with the West Bank, which boarders Jordan), I have no idea.  But it is worth noting, the Egyptians want nothing to do with the Palestinians (boarder crossing are normally closed).  It should also be noted that Israel does not occupy Gaza (as some will say), it is walled off, but is self-governed.  

As noted, I suspect Hamas was made to think this is a good idea by Iran (basically certain they helped set this up and fund it), who will only gain by almost any outcome.  The Palestinians can only loose.  There is NO way this would end up with any sort of good thing for them.  It certainly will not be the first, or last time, a group portends to be a protector or savior of a group, when in reality, they are they only increase their misery.

To be clear, I want to make sure we do not place blame on Palestinians in general.  I am sure a large percentage of them want nothing to do with this BS.  Hamas was elected into power there, but have refused to allow any elections since, and as can be seen in Russia, free elections... sometimes, not so much. 

It also should be noted, that this situation has been brewing for a LONG time, so people born into it, with few options but becoming a "holy freedom fighter"... there is just no simple answer, if there is even an answer at all.

I could go on with my take on it.  Bore you with my knowledge of history, the many places I've traveled, and try to impress you with how erudite I am (kidding of course).  But I'll just say this:

Fill up now.  Got a big truck you don't drive a lot?  Fill it first - maybe later you can siphon its fuel.

Of note is that Al Jazeera is a very very pro Palestinian outlet: 

Hamas has already reported that some hostages, (because, that is what they are, what, are they being held for some crime?!?) have been killed in the air strikes.

Hamas threatens to execute Israeli prisoners if Israel continues attacks on Gaza - Al Jazeera

In reply to A 401 CJ :

I hope you're wrong. (But you probably are not.)

I suspect that the hostages were taken in an effort to 1) restrain the Israel response, and 2) trade for high-value Palestinian prisoners. Since #1 has failed utterly, and #2 looks unlikely to come to fruition in current circumstances, the hostages will be viewed as increasingly expendable, and may be executed rather than worry about holding them indefinitely (with the exception of any high-value captives, such as military officers, who may still be traded later).

A 401 CJ said:

I could go on with my take on it.  Bore you with my knowledge of history, the many places I've traveled, and try to impress you with how erudite I am (kidding of course).  But I'll just say this:

 

Fill up now.  Got a big truck you don't drive a lot?  Fill it first - maybe later you can siphon its fuel.

Just today I'd been thinking about whether I should fill up now or if it's already too late, I wasn't even sure if the recent oil price dip made it to the pumps yet...

02Pilot said:

In reply to jharry3 :

There is a very rich literature on the post-WWI reshaping of the Middle East. David Fromkin's A Peace to End All Peace is one of the best.

It's worth noting that the very same Zionists who cheered the British in 1917 were blowing them up in 1946, then conspiring with them to invade Egypt in 1956. It's a volatile place, and you can't tell the players without a scorecard.

Does this book or any you know of document the meeting between Roosevelt and King Saud?  
 

Also will part 3 be China / Taiwan?  
 

On a loss of life unnecessarily scale the past few years are infuriating at best.

Ooh, trouble in the Middle East.  That's pretty different from every single day in the last 2,000 years.

Wake me up when something important happens...

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

The Fromkin book only goes into the very early 1920s, so no discussion of the FDR/Ibn Saud meeting in 1945. There is a bit about it and subsequent events at the end of this chapter from Brookings.

Edit: An older but very complete account, though somewhat lacking in analysis, here.

I think the primary lesson China is taking away from all this is probably making it more cautious on Taiwan, not more adventurous. Their economic problems and all the new developments in warfare that have appeared in the last year or so may be making them think twice about a short timeframe for trying to force the issue.

In reply to 02Pilot :

I hope you are right.  I know China is super patient compared to other cultures.  They may wait decades before moving on Taiwan, but they've already stated they see it as their territory.  
 

P.S. thanks for the link.  I will read it this week.  Even in Saudi info on that meeting is nearly non-existent.  I've asked.  

In reply to Javelin :

What if the real motive was to lure in a CSG and hit it to show the world how vulnerable the US is.  

Noddaz said:

In reply to Javelin :

What if the real motive was to lure in a CSG and hit it to show the world how vulnerable the US is. 

That seems like a very high-risk/low-odds play, but let's say they sink it. What's the endgame? How does it advance Hezbollah's (who are much more capable of even attempting such a thing than Hamas) objectives? "Show(ing) the world how vulnerable the US is" doesn't really seem like much of a benefit to the Palestinians. Do they think the US is going to slink home and lick their wounds? I don't, and I wouldn't want to be anywhere near southern Lebanon if such an attack were attempted, let alone successfully.

An interviewed ex Israeli special forces guy says they have already rescued a number of hostages being held in settlements and kibbutzes.

The Israeli special forces are of course very good at this (they unfortunately have a lot of experience), but inside Gaza will be a huge challenge.

Just one of the stories from the day:

The couple killed 7 terrorists saving their children, but they themselves died

Adar and Itay were officers in the Israeli army, and the couple kept weapons in their house. When Hamas terrorists approached their home, they hid their 10-month-old twins in a mamada (fortified room) and decided to divert attention to themselves. They managed to eliminate 7 militants. The couple died.

The children were found by relatives. They survived and are safe.

Reuters has a good guess as to the Israeli intelligence failure.  Essentially Hamas lead them to believe they were more interested in economic development (you know, actually helping the Palestinian people) rather than killing Jews. Israel even provided numerous work permits for Palestinians inside Israel.  It apparently was convincing enough that even the Palestinians in the West Bank were criticizing Hamas.

Why they were not concerned about the practicing attacks on villages part?..... perhaps they let a bit of hopeful idealism take over.
 

While Israel was led to believe it was containing a war-weary Hamas by providing economic incentives to Gazan workers, the group's fighters were being trained and drilled, often in plain sight, a source close to Hamas said.

"Hamas gave Israel the impression that it was not ready for a fight," said the source close to Hamas, describing plans for the most startling assault since the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago when Egypt and Syria surprised Israel and made it fight for its survival.

"Hamas used an unprecedented intelligence tactic to mislead Israel over the last months, by giving a public impression that it was not willing to go into a fight or confrontation with Israel while preparing for this massive operation," the source said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-was-duped-hamas-planned-devastating-assault-2023-10-08/#:~:text=%22Hamas%20used%20an%20unprecedented%20intelligence,operation%2C%22%20the%20source%20said.

02Pilot said:

Noddaz said:

In reply to Javelin :

What if the real motive was to lure in a CSG and hit it to show the world how vulnerable the US is. 

That seems like a very high-risk/low-odds play, but let's say they sink it. What's the endgame? How does it advance Hezbollah's (who are much more capable of even attempting such a thing than Hamas) objectives? "Show(ing) the world how vulnerable the US is" doesn't really seem like much of a benefit to the Palestinians. Do they think the US is going to slink home and lick their wounds? I don't, and I wouldn't want to be anywhere near southern Lebanon if such an attack were attempted, let alone successfully.

Agreed. History shows that the US tends to react strongly when somebody touches one of our ships.

In reply to NickD :

Unless it's Israel, and that ship is the USS Liberty.

And with that I'm out of this thread. 

RevRico said:

In reply to NickD :

Unless it's Israel, and that ship is the USS Liberty.

Or North Korea and the Pueblo, or Iraq and the Stark, or the Greer, Salinas, Reuben James, and the Kearny, for that matter (the latter four all attacked by German U-boats prior to 7 Dec 1941). There's a difference between an isolated incident with a single vessel in a conflict zone (two of the three post-war incidents involved intelligence-gathering ships) and an overt attack on a carrier battle group.