History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Reposted by a friend on Facebuch:

Ok so this is how this happened. I'll explain it so [anyone] can comprehend.

The Ukraine & Russia crisis In simple terms for those that have no idea what is going on.

-Ukraine used to be in an abusive relationship with Russia, feeding him, letting him use her car & giving him whatever he asked for until she built up the confidence to call it quits back in 1991

-Since then Ukraine has been working on herself, becoming a strong independent woman with help from friends like France, America, Poland etc. offering her support, loaning her money, & helping her find her way.

-Ukraine has been enjoying being single for 30 years & looking forward to continuing to grow & create new friendships.

-Now Russia being the toxic Ex that it is wants her back, and doesn’t want her meeting new people or creating any new relationships.

-A couple of weeks ago Russia started sitting in the front of Ukraine’s house & when her friends ask him what was he doing there, he said “Oh nothing, just getting a little bit of exercise in, that’s all.”

-After her friends told her that Russia was potentially getting ready to do something bad to her, he said “They’re lying, they just want you to be scared of me & that’s not what it is”

-Yesterday Russia broke into Ukraine’s house, beating her up & “taking advantage” of her while on Livestream & double dog daring any of her friends to do something about it & if they do want the smoke, Russia got that thang on him.

But do you get it now?!?!?!

AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) said:

Reposted by a friend on Facebuch:

...I'll explain it so even the girls can comprehend.

...

That's pretty berkeleying sexist.

Mr_Asa said:

Bank runs started on Russian banks.

As wild as the crypto market has been, I wonder how much money is going to disappear into Bitcoin and ETH. Russia is one of the bigger mining markets out there due to available space and favorable (read, cold) climate among other things. If they're freezing banks out of networks, the easiest way to move a large amount of now banned currency will be through crypto. 

Mndsm said:

Mr_Asa said:

Bank runs started on Russian banks.

As wild as the crypto market has been, I wonder how much money is going to disappear into Bitcoin and ETH. Russia is one of the bigger mining markets out there due to available space and favorable (read, cold) climate among other things. If they're freezing banks out of networks, the easiest way to move a large amount of now banned currency will be through crypto. 

Possibly.  Unfortunately the ruble has cratered at about the same time crypto has.

vwcorvette (Forum Supporter) said:

Can anyone confirm the stories about African immigrants being held back at the border to Poland or Hungary? The Moroccan and Nigerian governments have basically left their citizens (many of them students) to fend for themselves.

I've seen a few videos of this and read some articles. Some of my Nigerian kinfolk were saying that they're not letting Africans board trains out of Ukraine and crossing the border into Polans. Some because "real Ukrainians" (white?) are priority and get to board first. Nothing surprising though. I know from personal experience that some Polish folks can be pretty intolerant if you're not white until they know you're "one of the good ones". But are initially a lot friendlier to seemingly rich brown and black people that they dont know. 

Beer Baron said:

AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) said:

Reposted by a friend on Facebuch:

...I'll explain it so even the girls can comprehend.

...

That's pretty berkeleying sexist.

I though so too, but it was posted by a woman friend, so I figured that being offended was a choice, not a given.

Elon Musk has stated that Starlink is available in Ukraine and more terminals to use it are on the way.  Hopefully that will help them maintain contact with the rest of the world.

stuart in mn said:

Elon Musk has stated that Starlink is available in Ukraine and more terminals to use it are on the way.  Hopefully that will help them maintain contact with the rest of the world.

I'm sure the receivers are in the warehouse just next to the ventilators he promised to make when Covid kicked off.

He can't even get the damned things to US subscribers that have been waiting for months. 

yupididit said:

vwcorvette (Forum Supporter) said:

Can anyone confirm the stories about African immigrants being held back at the border to Poland or Hungary? The Moroccan and Nigerian governments have basically left their citizens (many of them students) to fend for themselves.

 

I've seen a few videos of this and read some articles. Some of my Nigerian kinfolk were saying that they're not letting Africans board trains out of Ukraine and crossing the border into Polans. Some because "real Ukrainians" (white?) are priority and get to board first. Nothing surprising though. I know from personal experience that some Polish folks can be pretty intolerant if you're not white until they know you're "one of the good ones". But are initially a lot friendlier to seemingly rich brown and black people that they dont know. 

Thanks for adding a personal touch to this problem. Racism anywhere should never be tolerated.

I haven't read any posts made since Friday evening so I apologize if this is redundant.

Russian space chief threatens to crash the ISS.

The whole point of making the station an international venture was to symbolize how we're all united in the higher calling of humanities collective advancement.

What a prophetic way to answer the question "is Russia ready to sit at the big kids table" with a resounding "BERK NO"   

In reply to RX Reven' :

I remember reading that the other day and thinking that was about the stupidest threat I've ever seen. Like how much of a child do you have to be. 

Musk never misses a crisis.  Grandstand until you can't no more. 

I've been otherwise occupied the last two days, but I've been following events closely. I'll try to sum up my current thoughts, though I'm sure I will miss some points.

What seems abundantly clear is that Ukraine is having vastly more success defending its territory than anyone expected. Similarly, Western response has been more robust and unified than we have seen in decades, arguably since the Berlin Blockade. As a result of these two facts, it seems Russia is reevaluating its position. That doesn't mean it plans to stop fighting; it simply has been forced to adapt to circumstances. Putin still sees a path to success here, though that success will be tempered by the losses and sanctions that Russia has and will suffer.

Putin's approach has always been carrot-and-stick, with emphasis on the stick and often with a very unappealing carrot on offer. The change in conditions on the ground is forcing him to offer more, but the stick remains his primary tool of diplomacy. After failure to get Ukraine to agree talks after laying down arms, there has been an offer of talks without preconditions in Belarus. These will also likely go nowhere due to location. I saw a single report indicating that Israel has offered to mediate. This is a good location and mediator - Israel has ties with both Ukraine and Russia, is not a NATO member, but also has a very Western outlook. It is also discreet, which will be very important in getting Russia to consider terms that might be embarrassing if publicly announced.

The key point to the success of any negotiations is to offer Putin a set of conditions that 1) allow him to remain in power, and 2) provide at least some of the security guarantees he sought, specifically regarding the neutralization of Ukraine. Ukraine has suggested that this is on the table, and their voice is key. What is unhelpful at this time is the premature talk in many Western capitals about post-war criminal charges against Putin. That's not to say that such charges could very well be warranted (I am not an international lawyer, and do not know the intricacies of this aspect), but declaring that a war crimes trial will be held while fighting is ongoing certainly gives the prime suspect zero incentive to stop, no matter how bad things get.

At this point Russia has a pretty stark choice ahead: escalate or negotiate peace rapidly. The level of domestic discontent, from common people to oligarchs to politicians, in Russia and Belarus is not going to allow Putin much time to either win or get out. Escalation is very possible, but given Ukrainian response at this point I don't think that any level of conventional force available to Russia will push Ukraine into surrender. If Russia wants to plant its flag on something that looks like no-man's land in Belgium in 1917, it has the force to do so, but it will be a hollow victory if achieved, and the time necessary to do so would have serious repercussions for Russia. Time is not on Putin's side here.

Mndsm said:

In reply to RX Reven' :

I remember reading that the other day and thinking that was about the stupidest threat I've ever seen. Like how much of a child do you have to be. 

I know right "is real shame if ISS go kaput, real shame".  Sir, the 1940's called and they want their gangster thug talk back.

In reply to vwcorvette (Forum Supporter) :

No problem. It's a subject that isn't going to be touched on much during this E36 M3storm. 

In reply to yupididit :

Racism is a massive problem in Eastern Europe.

Putin put his nuclear forces on alert today.

PBS February 27, 2022

Why are you going on nuclear alert...it's like if you were the only thug breaking into people's homes and yet you were also the only person installing a security system.

Sir, you don't need a security system, you are the only thug breaking into people's homes.

In reply to 93EXCivic :

Most definitely. I've been to a few eastern European countries. And some a super accepting and friendly and some not so much. But if you're Turkish or from the middle-east then you're treated even worse. And to add, I've served with Polish soldiers in Afghanistan and my experience was nothing but positive. 

South African, Ethiopian, Ghanaian, Somalian and students from Zimbabwe are also reporting that its mostly Ukrainian guards that are sending them to the back of the queue so that Ukrainians can evacuate first. 

In reply to yupididit :

Absolutely not related to this, but I find it extremely interesting there's so many Africans in Ukraine of all places. Not a place I would have considered emigrating to. 

Mndsm said:

In reply to yupididit :

Absolutely not related to this, but I find it extremely interesting there's so many Africans in Ukraine of all places. Not a place I would have considered emigrating to. 

Depends how bad things are where you're leaving.

93EXCivic said:

In reply to yupididit :

Racism is a massive problem in Eastern Europe.

Racism is a problem where ever it exists really but I have heard it's especially bad over there

In reply to Antihero (Forum Supporter) :

Lots of racist chanting at soccer games which is crazy when you consider how many African players those clubs bring in. One Russian clubs supporters threatened to leave a club when they almost signed a black player. Hungary was unable to play with home fans for a lot of games due to racist chanting. Additionally many of those clubs have strong far right and neo nazi Supporter groups

In a world that's increasingly divided, perhaps Putin is actually doing all of us a favor.

He may be providing a simple roadmap for us to follow...don't be at all like me.

Just saw that the Antonov  An-225 was damaged/destroyed in a strike on Hostomel Airport.  As an airplane nerd this makes me very angry.

Beer Baron said:

Mndsm said:

In reply to yupididit :

Absolutely not related to this, but I find it extremely interesting there's so many Africans in Ukraine of all places. Not a place I would have considered emigrating to. 

Depends how bad things are where you're leaving.

True. I was absolutely baffled back in Minneapolis when the Somalians showed up- like how you gonna want to move from the desert to the coldest place humanly possible? I was discussing it with someone later and the accessibility of programs and assistance for immigrants, as well as a (generally) accepting populous makes it attractive, even if it's a million below zero. I have to assume it's similar here.