History in the Making: Russian Invasion

So, in the midst of the third largest oil producer being involved in an invasion, sending oil prices sky high, we halt new oil leases? If we get involved, who do you think gets priority for the oil we have on hand?

https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-halts-oil-gas-leases-as-oil-prices-skyrocket-at-home

We made sure to buy our nearly 600,000 barrels from those invaders today though, along with most European NATO countries buying too.

93EXCivic said:

yupididit said:

John Welsh said:

As we speak of racism, here is an interesting take on racism/culturalism/bias from Al Jazeer.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/western-media-coverage-ukraine-russia-invasion-criticism

My wife and I was discussing this earlier today. 

This isn't an uncommon thing though. The world look at European countries differently (as superior). Of course if this was a ME or African country we would probably not even have a thread on it. And don't get me started on how accepting countries are for Ukrainians refugees vs those from the ME. 

It's like when a white girl or woman goes missing in America. The media coverage for that is way different than for women of color who is missing. 

 

Just how the world and America is and has been for a very long time. 

See the Yemen war or Myanmar for example.

Or the 2nd Congo War. 1998-2003. Quite possibly the deadliest war since WWII, yet most have no idea that it existed and those that do probably have no idea about it beyond that it happened (like me... no clue who was involved or why, just that it happened and was incredibly deadly)

racerfink said:

So, in the midst of the third largest oil producer being involved in an invasion, sending oil prices sky high, we halt new oil leases? If we get involved, who do you think gets priority for the oil we have on hand?

https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-halts-oil-gas-leases-as-oil-prices-skyrocket-at-home

We made sure to buy our nearly 600,000 barrels from those invaders today though, along with most European NATO countries buying too.

They blocked that before Ukraine was invaded.  I can find articles from at least a week ago talking about it.

In reply to racerfink :

Please don't go there.

This is about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Not U.S. political talk.   Not that there should need to be a reminder of that, as it has been made perfectly clear that this forum isn't the place for U.S. political talk, either.

From the Dutch contingency to the Ukrainians.  I did not see any sunflower seeds.

Now's probably a good time for me to issue my disclaimer since there will probably be more of these going forward:  Anything I post on this board will be released through the proper channels, and will be considered "public information" long before it's shared by yours truly.   I also do my best not to make predictions on here, but if I do please understand that they're coming from 40-year-old idiot at a keyboard who watches way too much late night television and not from what I'm seeing at work.

There.  That should do it.

Bravado aside, we're all becoming increasingly concerned about Russian military retaliation if (or once) Ukraine is sufficiently squashed from the picture.  For a while it was really easy for me to get caught up in the moment and I began to humor the idea of a quick Russian defeat (due to lost morale, etc).  But seeing the convoys and trainloads of Russian armor still headed into the conflict reminded me that wars are fought on fronts, but they're often won by industry.  There are exceptions of course, but the Russians have a DEEP well of military industry that they can draw from.  I am no longer humoring any ideas that this will be over any time soon.

Add in that as much assistance as Ukraine has received from the west, there seems to us to be little deterrent afterward that would keep Putin from wanting to continue his attack. He seems pretty adamant (albeit deranged) that he'll be out to punish us all once he's able to.  In fact, when I shared the above pictures on FB I received at least one message from a local asking me to be more careful.  They're afraid seeing the Pápa tailflash will invite Russian retaliation  

 Mrs. Hungary and I now have firm lines drawn in the sand concerning when we're going to pack our bags, when we're going to leave, and a basic idea of where we're going to go (Spain).

On the less military side, a local expat school (Quality School International), just finished helping their sister school's students get out of Ukraine and into another location in Bratislava.   This is an English speaking school that operates in support of the English speaking service members of our program.  They generally have similar schools in all the larger cities around here (Budapest, Bratislava, etc.).  Here's what they posted from that experience:

Hungary has stated that it expects to receive 600,000 refugees.  I'm seeing reports that estimate 100,00 have arrived so far.  Apologies in advance for the photodump, but here are the highlights from what we received back from the border:

Bringing it back locally, I did visit the Ukrainian shopkeeper.  He was in high spirits and watching a comedy when I entered.  We talked a little and agreed that the world was crazy.  No idea how he does it, but that man didn't seem phased one bit...

Interesting times we're living in, that's for sure.

And to FloatingDoc, i did want to say thanks.  To all you guys, really.  This thread is still an irreplaceable source of info, and an invaluable sounding board.  As this has escalated, I can say that the Hungary house has been sufficiently prepared for every step, and this board is 100% the reason.  At the risk of contradicting myself, here's hoping for an early and peaceful solution.

So glad to see how resilient our Ukranian friends are.  They are on the right-ish side of a battle with Russia for 5 days which is amazing.  

I'm proud to see Europe and the world come together on the issue.  The pictures from Hungary Bill look much like many of the host countries welcome parties.  This has been a surprisingly insightful thread and has done a good job of filtering out both sides unsubstantiated messaging.  

One of the most important outcomes of this whole affair thus far has been the radical shift in German policy. Overnight, Germany has basically renounced every bit of its post-war policy toward Russia, and has embraced rebuilding its military after decades of neglect. 100 billion Euros in emergency military spending, permanent maintenance of the 2% of GDP defense budget mandated by NATO (and ignored for decades), and abruptly ending the peace-through-trade approach it has maintained with Russia since the 1970s. This is stunning stuff, and once implemented will give Europe a significant increase in military capability, which in turn will open up avenues for more assertive diplomatic positions. There are still many thorny issues - energy dependence, for one - facing Germany, but I imagine many other NATO countries are breathing a sigh of relief after waiting for Germany to live up to its military potential for ages.

I'm not sure there's enough irony in the global irony reserves to adequately address a world in which the French and the Poles will be cheering the fact that Germany has begun rearming. Russia, on the other hand, may be having flashbacks.

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

I know I spoke for all of us when thanking you for your contributions to this discussion.

I'm relieved to see that you have a contingency plan for evacuation. Stay safe!

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

That is unpleasant to think about, that despite this going poorly so far for the Russians, the fact is that they have a lot more they are able to throw at this situation. 

In reply to mtn :

I knew the DRC had been torn apart by war but I never really knew how bad. I mean I guess to be fair most of that war happened before I was in high school. 

I was referring more to current fighting

Belarus, Putin's puppet state, has decided to give up its non-nuclear nation status.

Wonder where they are gonna get the nukes from 

In reply to mtn :

And of course the longer it goes poorly for them they're going to get more likely to be willing to throw more at it.  I heard one of the contributors on one of the cable news networks yesterday describe Putin as not having a reverse gear.  As awful as this has been so far, it does seem like there has been some level of restraint from the Russians.  Yeah, you've had some civilian infrastructure targeted, civilian casualties have occurred, and there's the whole thing with the tank driver swerving to run over the old man in his car.  But it sounds like the basic shelling of city centers has only just begun.  The statement from Russian forces that there's a safe evacuation route out of Kyiv sounds like a lead-up to a much more aggressive assault on the city.

I really want to believe that the Ukrainians have been able to really hold their own, but I can't help but think that they haven't yet seen the full force of the Russian onslaught.  I think it was a Dan Carlin podcast where he was describing the Russian military in the lead-up to WWI.  Historically, according to him, the Russian military's pattern was to take a long time to assemble and come together but given enough time it would spin up into a formidable fighting force.  In that case, he was talking about how the Schlieffen Plan called for having the western front wrapped up quickly while Russia tripped over herself trying to mobilize.  Today, of course, one would think that much of that spinning-up would have happened pre-invasion.  Certainly, it would be good news for Ukraine if this really was the most that they are either capable of or willing to invest in this venture, but Putin is such a wild card in the deck.

From the news this morning, it looks like Zelensky is going to be getting his wish - ammo is on its way.  I could the delivery of those supplies causing some issues.  Do the Russians get more anxious about trying to shut down those supply routes?  Are they trucking things in or trying to fly them in?  Who's doing the trucking or flying?  If a British cargo plane, for example, gets shot down by the Russians in Ukrainian airspace, what does that do?  There was talk about the EU providing fighter jets to Ukraine, but one source I read (Daily Mail?  BBC? I don't remember) said that the EU official retracted that saying that he misspoke and that there was an EU member nation that was reviewing the possibility of sending fighters as an independent action, not as a "EU" thing.

In reply to Mr_Asa :

And do we really think that Putin is going to toss the keys to Lukashenka?  Those will be Russian military installations through-and-through.

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

Definitely glad to be able to read some first hand info. I think we all appreciate ya for it; but wanted to put it out there!

Also apreacate that your posts are always calm... that goes a long way, and props for you being able to project calm in the middle of something like this. My prayers are with you and yours. 
I remember seeing you mentioning, with car stuff, things that implied you would be moving back here, and have wondered what had ya living in Hungary? Never quite knew, but it's just curiosity, on my part. 
Stay safe,  D. J. P. 

In reply to racerfink :

My guy, I'm not talking politics in here.

Also, it doesn't matter if no party is looking out for us because in here the Suddard party doesn't allow political talk.

This ain't reddit.

84FSP said:

So glad to see how resilient our Ukranian friends are.  

 

insightful thread and has done a good job of filtering out both sides unsubstantiated messaging.  

No surprise to me on their resilience... tough living conditions raises very tough folks!

Not sure if they can be called "our friends".  Other than the "enemy of my enemy " thing; I can't recall much about them to show any friendliness. 
 

It has been nice that opposing views have mostly gotten along. This thread has been a great source in food for thought. 

wae said:

In reply to Mr_Asa :

And do we really think that Putin is going to toss the keys to Lukashenka?  Those will be Russian military installations through-and-through.

To continue this, looks like Belarus is talking about joining the invasion. 

03Panther said:

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

Definitely glad to be able to read some first hand info. I think we all appreciate ya for it; but wanted to put it out there!

Also apreacate that your posts are always calm... that goes a long way, and props for you being able to project calm in the middle of something like this. My prayers are with you and yours. 
I remember seeing you mentioning, with car stuff, things that implied you would be moving back here, and have wondered what had ya living in Hungary? Never quite knew, but it's just curiosity, on my part. 
Stay safe,  D. J. P. 

Back in 2009, I took a chance on a new contract Boeing had where we would be responsible for the care and feeding of NATO's new C-17 aircraft (You can look up SAC or NAMP on google for more program info).  I've moved around the C-17 program a bit since then, taking gigs stateside, in Kuwait, and ultimately back here (now as an engineer, versus the wrench turner I started as).  Currently we plan on making Europe our home. 

Tying that in to the thread, while neither Mrs. Hungary and I are enlisted we do have an obligation to support this program as long as we feel it is safely possible.  Due to the nature of our positions, I am able to support remotely while Mrs. Hungary needs to be on site (she works security for the aircraft's more sensitive avionics).  As we can't both work the same shift (due to kid obligations) our shift differences place one of us at the house at all times.  With that, parent #1 will be responsible for snagging kids and punching west.  Parent 2 mops up, and grabs the pets (due to our previous efforts with various shelters, we are home to 4 dogs and 3 cats.  Which makes things in this situation "difficult").  Our meeting point is just on the other side of Vienna, and (while we feel we still have a long ways before such a thing becomes necessary) we are going to start the conversation with leadership about how we can still fill our rolls on the contract while being in a remote destination or if we can fill our current rolls at an airbase that lies sufficiently west of here.

Oddly enough, it was while we were stateside that the two of us jokingly came up with a 10-year plan called "Ice Cream Shop in Spain", which was just a fancy way to say that we wanted
1) to be financially independent.
2) to be back in Europe
3) to be living in a stereotypically "picturesque" environment.

That plan is about 4 or so years from being "complete" and we're not doing bad, but (02Pilot said it best)  There isn't enough irony left in the worlds irony reserves to sufficiently cover how it would be described if this event lead to us actually opening an ice cream shop in Spain...

To everyone:  Again, I cant thank you guys enough for the thread.  It's a great sounding board and does absolute wonders for keeping us calm, collected, and prepared.

In reply to wae :

Yeah I think Russia is fighting-lite right now. I know if they HAVE to they'll stop pulling punches. We don't want to see that for Ukraine or the rest of the world. 

In reply to racerfink :

No one has been ugly to you in any way. Or been unfair in any way. Please refrain from politics, on either side. We are all asking nicely. 
Thanks for being considerate, and take the us political commentary to the appropriate places. 

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

Awesome!

Love your plans, both emergency and life wise. 
And thanks for both of y'all's service. Despite not enlisting, it is still service. 

yupididit said:

In reply to wae :

Yeah I think Russia is fighting-lite right now. I know if they HAVE to they'll stop pulling punches. We don't want to see that for Ukraine or the rest of the world. 

With the long buildup to the invasion I wonder why they decided to play it this way? What strategic advantage does it give? Or did they just underestimate the resolve of the Ukrainians? 

So many questions. 

A friend of our family has dual US/German citizenship.  Her mother is German and lives in Germany but spends nearly 6 months of the year here.  The mother was here but returned to Germany early for a family funeral.  The good news is she will be here again, stateside, this Sunday.  

Not that Germany is "unsafe" right now but there are real concerns that Germany is going to get "more expensive" very quickly.  It will make our friend feel much more at ease having her mother here!    The long game has always been for the mother to move to Ohio.  That plan may be accelerated.