History in the Making: Russian Invasion

In reply to tuna55 :

Yes. This is a seriously dangerous position for the world and much rests on the mental state of Putin.

Two things I would point out, British and US intelligence seems to have a very good idea of what is happening in the Kremlin. While many of us said war wouldn't happen, they seemed fairly sure of it. They did originally miss the first date but they nailed the day and time it actually happened. The British stated essentially they believed the Putin was mostly acting from a defensive state on his announcement which to be honest I am going I could see given some statements by members of the UK at least and the fact that are the very least Putin has essential bunkered himself up during Covid and has some degree of paranoia. The fact that he has been so careful around COVID suggests to me that he is not at the mental point of F it I have nothing to live for.

Personally I think don't think as long as NATO does not enter the war we are not that close to nuclear war. His statements put us a little closer but I still think a small possibility. I also think if Putin does use Weapons of mass destruction on Ukraine we will see chemical weapons first to leave infrastructure intact.

Ultimately I expect that at some point in the near future Russia and Ukraine will reach a compromise that stops the killing of Ukrainians and allows Putin to say look we accomplished our objectives. How much Russia ramps up its violence, how strongly Ukraine holds out and what each side is willing to give up will be determine when that happens. We already know Ukraine is willing consider neutrality but what that means for demilitarization and the whole issue of the land in Eastern Ukraine and Chimera. Unless the ideal case happens and Putin is overthrown.

eastsideTim said:

In reply to 93EXCivic :

Disturbingly, there may not be many body bags going back to Russia. I read somewhere that the Russian Army has mobile crematoriums that could be used to cover up their level of casualties.

Yes but Russia does not have the same level of media control as say China. I am sure many Russians are seeing the images and videos from battle. More importantly people who have the power to make a move on Putin are much more likely to know the situation.

93EXCivic said:

In reply to tuna55 :

Yes. This is a seriously dangerous position for the world and much rests on the mental state of Putin.

Two things I would point out, British and US intelligence seems to have a very good idea of what is happening in the Kremlin. While many of us said war wouldn't happen, they seemed fairly sure of it. They did originally miss the first date but they nailed the day and time it actually happened. The British stated essentially they believed the Putin was mostly acting from a defensive state on his announcement which to be honest I am going I could see given some statements by members of the UK at least and the fact that are the very least Putin has essential bunkered himself up during Covid and has some degree of paranoia. The fact that he has been so careful around COVID suggests to me that he is not at the mental point of F it I have nothing to live for.

Personally I think don't think as long as NATO does not enter the war we are not that close to nuclear war. His statements put us a little closer but I still think a small possibility. I also think if Putin does use Weapons of mass destruction on Ukraine we will see chemical weapons first to leave infrastructure intact.

Good points.

I also think that any WMD usage subnuclear (not sure if thermobaric counts) would mean the rest of the world keeps the sanctions and no fly zones alive and well even after this war until they reform.

Frankly I would be in favor of this today.

I wrote a note to Macron yesterday thanking him. Could it be that Putin is inadvertently driving the rest of the world towards more unity than we've seen since 1945?

In reply to tuna55 :

I think if the war does end with a compromise and the Ukrainian government is still intact. Some level of sanctions should stay in place (particular the ones aimed at the oligarchs and Putin) but the current sanctions are going to harming everyday Russians. If these stay in place post Ukraine war, it could have opposite effect on the Russian population and push them further away from the West. Ultimately Putin won't be power forever and it would be better for the Western world (and probably the Russian people) if we can actually bring them into partnership with the Europeans. 

I'm wondering how much of Putin's social distancing is due to Covid precautions, vs how much of it is fear that anyone standing next to him will kill him. 

In reply to mtn :

Apparently everyone in contact with him has to have a Covid test daily. He also never showed that fear prior to COVID so why would have changed at the time of COVID. His isolation and social distancing is not something that just started with the invasion of Ukraine is my understanding.

Apparently the Snake Island soldiers are alive.

93EXCivic said:

In reply to mtn :

Apparently everyone in contact with him has to have a Covid test daily. He also never showed that fear prior to COVID so why would have changed at the time of COVID. His isolation and social distancing is not something that just started with the invasion of Ukraine is my understanding.

Right, I understand the same thing - but at this point, I'm wondering if Covid is just the explanation behind it, when an additional benefit is to prevent an assassination...

In reply to Mr_Asa :

"the navy" confirms... which navy? How? Who is in the Black Sea?

A quick map update.  Pretty similar to yesterday.  An important note of Belarusian forces moving near the Ukrainian and Polish boarder (upper left).  They are marked with a red square, which is done to help identify forces (everyone involved uses similar, Russian supplied, vehicles).  The guess here is that they may enter Ukraine to cut off the supply routes to Poland.

Lots of reports of shelling and artillery barrages again.  Not a lot from Kiev.  I am a bit confused with the reports of fighting IN Kiev a few days ago.  My only guess is that this might have been the airborne forces that where inserted into the nearby airport (and likely the units that where initially supposed to capture at least some of Kiev).  Clearly the Russians are still trying to push from the East and North.  As you can imagine, as that eastern stretch gets longer, securing supply lines could get very difficult.

tuna55 said:

In reply to Mr_Asa :

"the navy" confirms... which navy? How? Who is in the Black Sea?

My phone isn't letting me copy and paste anything for some reason.  If you google "Snake Island" you should get plenty of hits.

Mr_Asa said:

tuna55 said:

In reply to Mr_Asa :

"the navy" confirms... which navy? How? Who is in the Black Sea?

My phone isn't letting me copy and paste anything for some reason.  If you google "Snake Island" you should get plenty of hits.

Got it. That was lazy I guess. FYI the Ukrainian Navy says they are alive, but captured and in Russia. They will probably take over Russia with their testicular fortitude within the hour.

In reply to tuna55 :

Nah, its fair.  "Joe" whatever the hell it is, doesn't sound like that reliable of a website. 

Mr_Asa said:

Apparently the Snake Island soldiers are alive.

Jesus balls these are some hardy motherberkeleyers. 

Just wanted to thank O2 for responding to my question about NATO membership.  Yes, I have to agree, a wildly stretched out NATO does get absurd pretty quickly.  Not like there is not historical precedent on this either.  The rather famous case of some random duke getting shot in the Balkans result in an English teenager shooting a German Teenager in a muddy field in France hoping for an American to show up at some point.

Also to try and answer the question someone asked about why Russia would not just go full out to start with and take the country over:

I suspect Russia is well aware of the fact that every Ukrainian they kill (especially civilians) can create freedom fighter (partisan, revolutionary etc) that is highly motivated to kill Russians for many years in the future.  Think about it, for the average citizen (the ones that actually do the fighting) if the Ukrainians provided almost no fight and Russia took over, almost nothing would change for them.  Life goes on mostly. Work in the field / shop etc.   Now consider that same farmer / shop owner who has a number of family and friends killed and his shop / farm destroyed by an aggressive Russian attack.  He has lost so much, he does not have a lot more to loose and can easily become highly motivated to kill Russians.

In reply to aircooled :

I think you're dead on, and I think that's why they're as serious as they are. Granted Vlad isn't doing a great job with virtually any aspect of this whole thing, but the Ukraine people see the writing on the wall. There is nothing to lose by fighting. No matter what happens a Russian regime with a pliable leader would lead to astronomical levels of berkeleyery and pain for them. Either they roll over and definitely get berkeleyed, or fight to the death and only maybe get berkeleyed. 

Another interesting tidbit:

It is highly suspected the Russians are being less than efficient in notifying families of Russian soldier deaths.  In the days of cell phones and texts though this is going to be a lot harder to hide.

The Ukrainians apparently have an interesting (and rather devious) plan:  They apparently have created a hotline, that Russian mothers can call, and they will tell them if they have any record of their sons deaths!  .... ouch!

Anyone here have a reliable contact in a Air National Guard unit...?

Speaking of African Americans in Europe, here is a link to Terrell Star. He's been doing independent reporting from inside Kiev throughout the bombing and has cashapp/Venmo/Paypal accounts setup for anybody that wants to support him. He's doing this on his own and could have left a long time ago.

https://twitter.com/terrelljstarr

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There are reports on social media that Ergodan will close the Bosporus to "de-escalate" the situation. Can't find anything yet about that from reliable sources. 

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The Ruble initially crashed by about 30%, but has somewhat recovered. The Russian Central bank increased it's interest rate from 9% to 20%(!) to support the currency. The Russian Stock exchange is closed for the next week but trading on secondary markets shows massive drops for Russian companies. 

The sanctions, combined with the freezing of the assets for the Russian central bank are something that I think has never been done before to a modern and globalized economy. If the Russian economy is unable to pay it's debts, then who doesn't get paid? 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-central-bank-scrambles-contain-fallout-sanctions-2022-02-28/

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/russia-ukraine-news-live-updates-n1290145/ncrd1290245#liveBlogCards

THis guy with an extremely unfortunate name says talks are over, but no summary given.

If real:

Even Switzerland isn't neutral:

In reply to stroker :

Yes but why? 

tuna55 said:

THis guy with an extremely unfortunate name says talks are over, but no summary given.

This is excellent news. It seems both sides are serious about talks. Hopefully they can end the fighting soon.