The russian casualty odometer just clicked past 700k:
The russian casualty odometer just clicked past 700k:
Jeez this is interesting. How the changes seen on the battlefield in Ukraine will effect things going forward. Kirchhoff is an interesting dude. He founded the pentagons Silicon Valley office
There have been more rumors of some sort of secret negotiations going on, but this is realistically (if it's actually happening) more of a prisoner exhange agreement, or possibly some agreement to stop attacking infrastructure (?)
A recent assessment of Russians negotiating stance:
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's (RFE/RL) Sistema project released an investigation on November 4 detailing Russia's initial 2022 demands for Ukraine's total capitulation, further supporting ISW's long-standing assessment that Russia has never been willing to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine on any terms but its own.[10] RFE/RL reported on November 4 that it obtained a draft of the treaty that Russia offered to Ukraine on March 7, 2022, entitled "Treaty on the Settlement of the Situation in Ukraine and the Neutrality of Ukraine." The draft document includes seven provisions, all of which amount to Ukraine's complete surrender and disarmament and the abandonment of its sovereignty, lands, and people...
Russia is entering into some serious economic concerns, though not likely a short term issue, this seems like it could haunt them for a while.
Russia’s economy is overheating but Putin cannot change course
Russia’s Central Bank raised its key policy rate to 21 percent in late October as the Russian authorities struggle to manage a wartime economy that is in danger of overheating due to a combination of factors including rising inflation, sanctions pressure, and record defense sector spending. While Kremlin officials and many international analysts insist that the Russian economy remains in remarkably good shape, the country’s longer term economic outlook is becoming increasingly precarious....
....A range of factors are fueling the current growth of the Russian economy, with military expenditure perhaps the single most important driver. The Russian authorities allocated around six percent of GDP for the military in 2024, representing the highest total since the Cold War. Further increases are planned for 2025. Nor does this cover all war-related costs. Significant additional spending is required to fund a range of defense-related industries and to finance the occupation of Ukrainian regions currently under Kremlin control.
It wouldn't be the first time during this war that the Russian economy seemed to be doing surprisingly well right up until it ate E36 M3 in a big enough way that not even an opaque authoritarian state could cover it up, so I think there will be little to no warning of anything terrible that may happen to it. If I woke up one morning to news that the Ruble underwent Weimar-style hyperinflation overnight I wouldn't be surprised.
Also Russia is still funding sabotage, their latest plot sounds a bit Lockerbie-ish:
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