They did apparently launch an RS-26 and it landed somewhere along the Dnipro river. The missile normally has 3 nuke MIRVs on it, but in this case it seemed to be 6 cluster munitions of some sort (they appear as streaks of light in the video). It looks like they may have started fires, but in general, not terribly destructive (considering). This again seems a bit more like a show since this is a VERY expensive missile.
The Ukrainians may have hit the NK command HQ with the recent Storm Shadow attack.
The attack on the ammo depot by ATACMs was reportedly by 8 missiles (possibly 6 hit). It's important to note that Ukraine reportedly only has 50, so that one attack was about a 6th of their supply.
Some observations from ISW:
Ukraine conducted a successful combined strike against military assets in the Russian rear on the night of November 19 to 20 using drones and Western-provided long-range weapons....
....Head of Ukraine's Center for Combatting Disinformation Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko stated on November 20 that Ukrainian drones struck the 13th Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) arsenal near Kotovo, Novgorod Oblast, at which Russian forces were reportedly storing ammunition for tube artillery; mortar mines; "Grad," "Smerch," and "Uragan" multi-launch rocket systems (MLRS) missiles; Iskander ballistic missiles; S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missiles; North Korean provided KN-23 ballistic missiles; and Tor surface-to-air system missiles.[6] Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Ukrainian forces also struck a command post of the Russian "Sever" (Nothern) Grouping of Forces in Gubkin, Belgorod Oblast.[7] Ukrainian and Russian sources additionally posted footage of the aftermath of a reported Ukrainian drone strike against the EFKO Factory in Alekseyevka, Belgorod Oblast, which Kovalenko stated produces cargo drones for the Russian military.[8]....
The November 19 to 20 strike series indicates that Ukraine has already begun leveraging Western-provided long-range weapons systems to assemble more complex and effective strike packages. Ukrainian forces notably utilized both long-range strike drones and Storm Shadow missiles in the November 19-20 strike and struck a diverse range of military targets across the Russian rear.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have been able to conduct optimized operational maneuver since Winter 2022-2023 due to legacy doctrinal and resource limitations, but both are learning, innovating, and adapting their respective tactics on the battlefield, emphasizing the dynamic nature of the current war. Ukrainian Missile and Artillery Forces Deputy Commander Colonel Serhiy Musienko reported in a November 18 article by Ukrainian outlet RBK-Ukraine that Russian forces are facing ammunition shortages on select sectors of the frontline and are increasingly committing Soviet-era 122mm and 130mm howitzers to the battlefield.[14] Musienko stated that Russian forces began dispersing their artillery and command systems along the frontline to avoid grouping equipment in one area and increasing vulnerability to Ukrainian strikes. Musienko also stated that Russian forces are changing their assault tactics, using small teams of one-to-two Russian personnel running to cover, after which small groups accumulate and coordinate before launching a subsequent assault. Musienko stated that Russian forces are also using armored vehicles, motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), and buggies to quickly approach Ukrainian positions and engage in small-arms battles. Musienko commented on Russia's strike adaptations, stating that Russian forces have created a reconnaissance-strike complex consisting of reconnaissance drones and an Iskander launch battery located in occupied Crimea that can identify and strike targets in the Zaporizhia direction within 20-to-30 minutes.
The New York Times (NYT) reported on November 20 that Ukrainian commanders stated that Ukrainian forces, in contrast to the situation faced by Russian forces as outlined by Musienko, continue to experience artillery shortages and are consequently relying more heavily on drone operations to constrain Russian advances along the frontline, with drone strikes resulting in upwards of 80 percent of Russian losses along the front.[15] The NYT stated that a Ukrainian drone pilot and platoon leader noted that Russian forces are targeting small drone teams with glide bombs. Musienko also noted that Ukrainian artillery and strike drones are critical for preventing Russian forces from approaching Ukrainian positions and engaging in small-arms firefights.[16]
ISW recently assessed that Ukrainian drone operations are playing a critical role in constraining Russian mechanized maneuver, slowing Russian advances to a foot pace, and preventing Russian forces from fully exploiting Ukraine's ongoing manpower constraints.[17] While neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have discovered how to restore operational-level mechanized maneuver to the modern battlefield, the tempo of frontline fighting remains high, and the frontline remains dynamic. Frontline innovation and adaptation on both sides will continue to evolve modern warfare.
In reply to aircooled :
Expect the Ukrainians to burn every piece of long-range ordnance they have between now and January. They're desperate to hold on to some of the Kursk salient for negotiating purposes, and they know that the new administration may withdraw authority to hit targets inside Russia. The European-supplied stuff may still be an option after that time, but if a push for negotiations comes out of the White House, the Europeans are going to have a hard time holding their position, especially given how transactional the incoming administration is likely to be when it comes to foreign policy.
Secret Ukrainian weapon appears to be shrinking Putin:
ISW has some perspective on the Putin yammerings, and the potential fate of the Koreans:
Russian forces conducted a complex strike against critical infrastructure and industrial enterprises in Dnipro City, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, on the morning of November 21, that reportedly included a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile fired from Tambov Oblast, seven Kh-101 cruise missiles fired from Volgograd Oblast, and an experimental medium-range ballistic missile with reentry vehicles – likely a modified RS-26 “Rubezh” intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) - fired from Astrakhan Oblast.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed six Kh-101 cruise missiles and that the remaining missiles did not cause significant damage.[2] Ukrainian officials reported that the strike damaged an unspecified industrial enterprise (likely Ukraine’s Pivdenmash factory that manufactures missiles and space rockets), a medical facility, and residential areas in Dnipro City, and reported that a Russian missile also damaged residential areas in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[3] Western officials told Western media that the ballistic missile that targeted Dnipro City was not an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and was more likely a ballistic missile with a shorter range.[4]
Putin's recent threats against the West have centered on Western states allowing Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes into “Russian territory,” but Ukrainian forces have been striking what the Kremlin illegally defines as “Russian territory” for a long time. The Kremlin has illegally defined occupied Crimea as part of Russia since Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Ukrainian forces have routinely struck Crimea with US-provided ATACMS and UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles since April 2023.[7] The Kremlin's application of its "red lines" rhetoric has been wildly inconsistent, undermining the overall Russian escalation narrative.[8] Putin consistently escalates the war on his own without regard to Western decisions and has consistently declined to retaliate every time Western states have deepened their support of Ukraine. Putin previously threatened severe retaliation if Western states provided Ukraine with rocket artillery, tanks, warplanes, and the ability to strike into Russia, and Putin has constantly shifted the goalposts every time the West has called Putin’s bluff.
aircooled said:ISW has some perspective on the Putin yammerings, and the potential fate of the Koreans:
- North Korea's ability to learn and integrate lessons from fighting alongside Russia is likely to be significantly degraded if the Russian military command uses North Korean troops in the same highly attritional infantry-led assaults that it uses most Russian personnel.
My ignorance of NK military doctrine cannot be overstated, but I assumed that if things ever lit off in Korea the North's strategy would be the same as Russia's-massive artillery followed by meat waves.
Did anybody think that the NK troops would be anything other than fodder for the grinder?
It's worth noting that Russia did notify the US in advance of the IRBM strike through existing nuclear risk reduction channels (in other words, "We're going to launch this thing, but don't worry, it's not a nuke.") This has not been widely reported in the West, which is frankly a bit odd, given that announcing it in advance sort of undermines the "ooh, big scary missile" narrative the Russians may have been going for. Maybe US diplomats don't want it known that they're talking to the nasty Russians.
I also have doubts regarding the utility of this conventional IRBM. Given the accuracy we have come to expect from Russian weapons, I'm not sure this is a big a threat as it's being made out to be. Sure, it's hard to intercept, but if that's the big selling point, rather than providing a new and enhanced level of destructive capability, I wouldn't be too alarmed.
In reply to CrustyRedXpress :
I think you are correct the NK strategy is similar to Russia's, but Russia's is not "supposed" to be meat wave attacks. It is closer the the US style mechanized, combined arms assault style (likely with less air power and more artillery and tanks).
In the current state of affairs, the Russian airforce (including helicopters) is heavily suppressed and has fallen back to lobbing glide bombs from a distance, with similar effect to an artillery attack. The Russian helicopters (normally a pretty significant factor) have been shown to be rather vulnerable to man portable SAMs (Manpads), so they are very cautious now (what is left of them).
The mechanized part of their military (including tanks) has also be heavily suppressed by the wide availability of man portable ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles) such as the Javalin. Drones of course are also having a LARGE effect on the use of vehicles which are even taking out very light (ATV sized) vehicles, which would be way overkill to use a missile. Drone are even taking out groupings of soldiers.
This leaves, both sides, with only small groups of soldiers as the primary maneuvering structure. Organize a mechanized assault with tanks and APC's, you end up with a lot of burning tanks and APC's, which the Russian's have found out... tried again... found out... tried again... found out... tried again...
The heavy use of mines (some of which are shot from artillery) also affects the mechanized aspect. Normally these could be dealt with by mine clearing vehicles, but those now become vulnerable to the drones.
At some point, I am almost expecting them to run out of bullets and go to swords....
02Pilot said:I also have doubts regarding the utility of this conventional IRBM. Given the accuracy we have come to expect from Russian weapons, I'm not sure this is a big a threat as it's being made out to be. Sure, it's hard to intercept, but if that's the big selling point, rather than providing a new and enhanced level of destructive capability, I wouldn't be too alarmed.
I think you're pretty much spot on (again).
That "medical facility" was a rehab center (of the physical variety) we ran aid to in December 2022. One of those warheads landed on, and destroyed, the boiler building at the complex. The whole place is now without heat (and a lot of windows), but that is:
1) a relatively small explosion.
2) hardly what they were aiming at (bold of me to assume they were aiming)
I think "hard to intercept" is the only part they're focused on (well, and making headlines).
No deaths, and no injuries at the center.
Here's a picture with us and the director (portable EKG and UV disinfectant lights being delivered). She's the amazing individual in the sweater (and I promise this strike isn't going to stop her one bit).
The Russians continue to make steady, but slow gains in the Donetsk region. I believe the Russians also recent relieved some commanders there or their command. Cannot say if it was because the gains are too slow, or the losses were too high (the second seems unlikely!). Is this the result of more commitment by the Russian, or faltering defense of the Ukrainians?
The Ukrainians struck another oil field, and hit the Khalino airfield, which is in the city of Kursk.
To give you an idea of the starting point of any negotiation that might happen, this is apparently a leaked map of the Russian proposal. It essentially breaks Ukraine into: Russia, Russian controlled, and divided up to other countries. It would be pretty analogous to the US starting peace negotiations with Canada (you know, we are fighting a war based on Hockey or something): We need to decide what part of the US England gets, what part Canada gets, and what part Mexico gets.... and those parts add up to 100%.
Saw an update on the cut submarine cables in the Baltic sea, Russia may have paid a Chinese commercial ship to do the deed by dragging its anchor while Russia's usual cable-fiddling ship, the Yantar, was near the British isles apparently eyeing up a cable that goes between Ireland and the UK:
If that seems like an odd set of priorities, cutting the cable near Ireland would've been far more damaging because so many American tech megacorps put their data centers there for tax reasons:
In reply to GameboyRMH :
Pretty sure that second link won't work as is.
In reply to Stampie :
Whoops, fixed...
In reply to GameboyRMH :
Time to cut off the Baltic Sea to all enemy countries. Sink the Chinese ship with all on board and see how they like that.
In reply to VolvoHeretic :
Or start targeting Russian troll farms to respond in kind. Cut their internet access and have NSA drain their online account funds as a warning/stage 1. Stage 2 is targeted EMPs, and possibly leveling some of the buildings.
In reply to VolvoHeretic and Flynlow:
An interesting overview of some of the latest drone tech in Ukraine:
Some info on the most recent Russian attack. Indication that the Ukrainians are reasonably effective in taking some of these down. Damage was still done I am sure:
Russian forces conducted a large series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy grid and major defense industrial facilities on the nights of November 27 to 28 and 28 to 29. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 188 drones and missiles against Ukraine on the night of November 27 to 28, including: three S-300 air defense missiles from Belgorod Oblast targeting Kharkiv Oblast; 57 Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace over Volgograd Oblast; 28 Kalibr cruise missiles from vessels in the Black Sea; three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from airspace over the Black Sea; and 97 Shahed drones and unknown other strike drones (likely referring to decoy drones) from Kursk, Oryol, and Rostov oblasts and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai as of 1030 local time on November 28.[17] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 76 Kh-101 missiles, three Kh-59/69 missiles, and 35 drones, and 62 Russian drones became “lost,” likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. The Ukrainian Air Force noted that Ukrainian forces also downed 90 percent of the Russian Kalibr missiles and that at least 12 Russian drones and missiles successfully struck Ukrainian fuel and energy objects.[18]
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 132 Shahed drones and unknown other strike drones (likely referring to decoy drones) from Oryol, Rostov, and Kursk oblasts and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai on the night of November 28 to 29 and that Ukrainian forces downed 88 drones over Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkassy, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, and Odesa oblasts at of 900 local time on November 29.[19] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 41 Russian drones became ”lost,” likely due to Ukrainian EW interference, and that one Russian drone returned to Russian air space. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drones and missiles damaged residential buildings and critical infrastructure in Chernihiv, Chernivitsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Volyn oblasts on November 28 and 29.[20] The Ukrainian Air Force noted that Russian forces have used large numbers of missiles and drones during recent strikes to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and that Russian forces are launching thermal and radar interference devices and placing EW systems directly on missiles to defend against Ukrainian countermeasures.[21] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces have also recently seized on poor weather conditions to conduct strikes under dense fog and cloud cover.
Syria is having "issues". As you might know, Russia is supporter of Syria and has even based Russians there. I think they are a bit pre-occupied at this point to help out again.
Syrian opposition forces continued their offensive into Syrian regime-held territory and advanced into Aleppo City. The opposition forces have continued expanding their offensive eastward since launching the surprise offensive on November 27. Thousands of fighters and armored elements advanced quickly eastward, seizing several villages within a few hours of launching the offensive.[1] Fateh Mubin—an opposition group based in HTS-controlled Idlib Province—announced on November 28 that they had seized control of another 13 villages and achieved the “complete liberation” of the countryside to the west of Aleppo City.[2] Fateh Mubin designated the western Aleppo countryside a ”closed military zone.”[3] Local Syrian sources reported that opposition forces seized armored vehicles and weapons, including anti-tank guided missiles and man-portable air defense systems, belonging to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).[4] Fateh Mubin claimed that opposition forces also detained over 20 pro-regime fighters.[5] The opposition forces advanced into the western parts of Aleppo City on November 29, marking the first time that the city has been contested since pro-regime forces captured it in late 2016.[6] Opposition forces then advanced into the city center and declared a curfew over the city, according to local reports and geolocated footage.[7] Social media accounts posted videos of opposition fighters entering a military hospital, a police headquarters, and the Aleppo municipal building.[8]
The opposition forces killed an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officer, Brigadier General Kiomars Pour Hashemi, as they advanced.[9] The IRGC acknowledged his death and described him as a military adviser to the Syrian regime.[10] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami attended a ceremony for Pour Hashemi in Tehran on November 29.[11]
Not a lot changing that I see at this point. It's starting to get very "wintery", so expect Russia to continue to attack power infrastructure. The weather will also likely affect drone use, but also of course makes any movement difficult. The Ukrainians are showing off a new jet powered drone they are putting into mass production.
The Russians appear to be still pushing their limits (the Rubel is starting to bottom out again):
The Kremlin is continuing to suffer significant manpower losses to make tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast at the expense of Russia's ongoing war effort and the medium-term viability of the Russian economy.
Russia's constrained labor pool is likely unable to sustain this increased casualty rate in the medium-term, and continued Western military support for Ukraine remains vital to Ukraine's ability to inflict losses at this rate.
Things are not going well for the Russian (and Iranian) back Assad regime in Syria. Seen below, red is Assad government, and the green are the rebels. The rebels have pushed south even more and have apparently taken (at least most of) Hams. This is important because it effectively cuts of the Russian primary air and naval base in Masyaf (circle below). The Russians have already moved their ships from there and have moved air defense closer to the base since the rebels have captured a fair amount of government equipment, which includes rocket launchers which could potentially reach there from the Hama region.
As far as WHO these rebels are? Well, they are clearly not allies of Russia or Iran, so there is that... but... one of the primary factions (I think there are 3 primary ones) is essentially and out growth of..... Al Qaeda and ISIS, so yeah, not terribly US friendly. One of the others is apparently heavily Turkish backed (our good buddies in NATO.... yeah). The Kurds are involved.. somewhere...
It's not really looking goof for Assad at this point. I can't imagine Russia will put much effort in here.
Here is another map with more explinations (not sure what is going on, or not going on in the south):
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-aligned opposition groups have begun a campaign to capture Homs after capturing Hama City on December 5.
Syrian opposition groups are using negotiated settlements with localities to rapidly seize territory without fighting.
Opposition groups may also advance rapidly towards Homs due to the rapid collapse of regime forces.
In reply to aircooled :
Can those that know more learn us Kurds? What I think I know is the Kurd ethnic group home region is eastern Syria, NE Iraq, NW Iran, and parts of southern Turkey. SDF is Kurd army I believe. Is their end goal to create a Kurd state? Are all of the groups working together to that end?
The operational objective here appears to be cutting Damascus off from the sea. This would isolate the regime from Russian support; Iranian support is already significantly degraded due to Israeli actions. The Russians are advising their nationals to leave the country.
The HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) leadership is making surprisingly moderate noises. I suspect this is tactical; they want to hit while the Assad regime's support is weakened, while avoiding antagonizing the US and Israel, either of which could seriously undermine their efforts. Exactly what their proposed endgame looks like is anyone's guess - I suspect they don't even know at this stage. The real test will be if Assad falls; how HTS treats other militant groups and what sort of government is proposes will tell the tale.
Beyond Assad, Russia has a lot to lose here as well. Their bases on the coast give them an ability to project power in the Med; losing them will be significant.
It's still early days here. No one expected this level of success, not even HTS. When the advance stops and the dust settles, we'll see what things look like.
Stampie said:In reply to aircooled :
Can those that know more learn us Kurds? What I think I know is the Kurd ethnic group home region is eastern Syria, NE Iraq, NW Iran, and parts of southern Turkey. SDF is Kurd army I believe. Is their end goal to create a Kurd state? Are all of the groups working together to that end?
From what I understand, all of the tribes in all of the middle east would prefer a separate state where they dont have to interact with anyone else.
In reply to Stampie :
The ethnic Kurdish people want an autonomous region (country?) called Kurdistan. The problem is Kurdistan would be carved out of modern day Turkey, Syria, Iraq and.... Iran? So those countries call Kurd freedom fighters 'terrorists'. You can do the math from there.
The Kurds are pretty anticapitalist so they'll never get support from the west.
red_stapler said:The Kurds are pretty anticapitalist so they'll never get support from the west.
Unless they happen to be fighting someone the West currently finds more objectionable. The enemy of my enemy is my friend....
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