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aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
3/10/25 12:54 p.m.

In reply to Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) :

Yes, I think you are spot on here.  I am sure we all here could easily agree what we think Russia should "get", but the reality is that Russia is very much (at least now) in a position to have some say (a lot really) in the results and, as is ongoing now, even whether there is even a stop to hostilities.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
3/10/25 1:04 p.m.
Noddaz said:

I do not totally understand the Russian wave missile attacks on infrastructure.  I understand the idea of breaking the will of the government or the will of the people, but wouldn't those weapons have a better result if they were used against military targets?  Of course this is an army that is STILL using meat waves when attacking.....

As you note, the goal is certainly breaking the will (as well as making any manufacturing more difficult).

The reason why they are not targeting military targets more is almost certainly because significant military targets will have robust defenses so are much harder to hit.  The F16's for example are certainly in air fields well in the west, well hidden, scattered and likely with many decoys, in addition to the defenses is the fact that the F16's are likely commonly in the air trying to shoot these missiles down during the attacks.

The energy infrastructure they are attacking is (pretty much by definition) very well scattered, and much harder to defend.  Most of the major power plants / dams have already been mostly knocked out, so I suspect many of the targets now are things like sub-stations etc, and those are going to be very difficult to point defend individually.

Also, it should be noted, they are certainly still attacking military targets, just if they do, and even if they are not successful, we will not hear about it.  The Ukrainians have been very good with their InfoSec (information security).  The Ukrainians are making a crap load of drones somewhere, and I am sure the Russians are hunting for those factories also.

stroker
stroker PowerDork
3/10/25 3:31 p.m.

Slightly off-topic, I'm disappointed with the amount and quality of the discourse on the effect of future US weapon procurement given what drone capabilities have demonstrated in Ukraine.   The idea of configuring a F-35 for "ground attack" seems 10x more ludicrous to me now than it did five years ago, for example.  

FJ40Jim
FJ40Jim Reader
3/10/25 3:53 p.m.

Yes, it seems ludicrous that anybody is talking about human crewed vehicles, when Ukraine has shown that remote piloted or autonomous vehicles can do much of the kinetic work for far less cost. 

Driven5
Driven5 PowerDork
3/10/25 4:23 p.m.

In reply to stroker :

I know it might not be the 'future' of ground support drones, yet I can't help but want to see an A-10 reimagined as a stealthish ruggedized drone still fundamentally built around the 30mm Avenger cannon that doesn't need to protect any squishy organic bits. devil

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
3/10/25 4:32 p.m.

The US is preparing for a very different fight than what we're seeing in Ukraine. Any conflict with China is going to be naval- and air-driven, and done at very long ranges into layered defense networks. Drones have a place, but in very different ways (persistent naval drones, both surface and subsurface, wingmen slaved to manned fighters, long-range reconnaissance). I'd be more worried about hardening US information-sharing networks and communications to ensure C4I dominance in the battlespace more than anything else.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
3/10/25 6:19 p.m.

In reply to stroker :

I think you misunderstand what the F35 is designed to do.  One way to think of them is they are an aerial (localized) command and control center.  These are not "turn and burn" fighters in the sense of an F-16 nor the "blast them with shells" A-10.  Much closer to the fleet defense roll of the F14, which was essentially "zap them from a distance" (though obviously, you saw they movie, they could mix it up).

The F-35 is an massive collection of sensors and integrated systems.  The power requirements for the plane is huge (they had to upgrade the engine to meet the future power requirements!!). It's basic roll is to listen and sniff for targets (radars etc), and of course be feed targets from other sources (e.g. AWACS, satellites etc), then coordinate attacks.  Those attacks can come from other planes of course (e.g. F15X a massive missile carrier). And, potentially use it's stealth to drop whatever guided (self-guided) weapons it has (very likely almost always long range stand off weapons)

One of the expected primary weapons to be used are drones.  Far more sophisticated than the hobby drones being used in Ukraine, but still drones.  And those drones, might have drones...

One thing to consider, and what is being learned in Ukraine already, is that the radio controlled FPV drone, which has been super effective, is now down almost to the 50% effectiveness rate because of more concentrated electronic warfare, thus the appearance of the wire-guided drones (as in miles an miles of monofilament wire!).

In a more sophisticated environment in the future, you can also expect to see anti-drone specific weapons (like lasers, and even reactive shotgun like devices), so the US is certainly not going to throw everything at low cost drones (which will still be effective in some environments, and we have had switchblade drones for a while).  Let's face it, the US is know for dropping hundred thousand dollar weapons on $5000 trucks, and that is not likely to change too much!

Here is what a switchblade drone looks like in action:

Rare Footage Shows U.S.-Made Switchblade Drones in Action in Ukraine ...

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
3/10/25 6:30 p.m.

More weirdness out of Ukraine (Russia of course): 

So, that Russian city the Ukrainians captured, Sudzha, is a natural gas pipeline hub. Which has, you know, pipelines running into it.  Well... the Russians decided to use the actual pipelines to attack, as in, moving through the actual pipeline!  It's not entirely clear what happened.  Some reports that they suffocated (not a lot of air in a natural gas pipeline), but there is evidence of them exiting the pipeline.  But it apparently is known that most of them are now, no longer.  These were likely pretty experienced troops also.

Also, it's starting to look like the Kursk encursion may be disappearing soon.  The map is not looking good.

Russian forces reportedly advanced in Sudzha itself with support from North Korean forces. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced into the industrial area in northeastern Sudzha and that Russian forces maintain positions in the town along the east bank of the Sudzha River.[8] One Russian milblogger claimed that some areas of the industrial zone are a contested "gray zone."[9] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are attempting to advance into central Sudzha and crossed to the west bank of the Sudzha River in at least one place in the town.

In reference to the previous post

A Ukrainian soldier operating in Kursk Oblast stated that Russian forces advanced south of Sudzha due to support from North Korean forces and Russian forces' "massive" use of first-person view (FPV) drones with fiber optic cables.

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