In reply to 02Pilot :
Nice background.
I definitely do not think the Russia-Chinese buddy-buddy relationship is likely anytime soon.
We're more likely to see Putin get axed (figuratively or literally) and a pro-EU Russian administration gradually happen once the oligarchs have solidified the protection of their wealth - which after this war will likely be severely depleted.
tuna55 said:pheller said:Intelligence so far reports the following:
- The 40 mile long convoy doesn't appear to be doing much. Some suspect that the more seasoned forces are coming from the south, and the conscripts in the north are there to aid in surrounding Kyiv, which Moscow believed would be easier.
- Ukrainian (Turkish) drones are being used to eliminate S2A threats, then being followed up with air strikes. It's quite possible that the 40 mile convoy will be completely annihilated before reinforcements join from the south. Continued reports of this convoy being a major source of abandonment by Russian forces.
- Russian forces are going to door to collecting cell phones, computers, any way of communicating. This is being reported from Northeast of Kyiv, and Southeast of Kyiv (close to Mariupol).
- Despite 400 some missile attacks, the Ukrainian missile defense system is still operational. Where that system is, and what exactly its protecting is obviously being kept secret.
I love that they have such a ripe target as a huge line of Russian weaponry just sitting there stalled in a line. I hope they can take advantage of that, despite not having A10s. I think those Turkish drones are pretty mighty in that scenario.
I saw an interview with a retired US Army colonel who had been in armored divisions. He was saying that just the thought of sitting in a huge armored convoy parked in the open would make him very very nervous.
NickD said:tuna55 said:pheller said:Intelligence so far reports the following:
- The 40 mile long convoy doesn't appear to be doing much. Some suspect that the more seasoned forces are coming from the south, and the conscripts in the north are there to aid in surrounding Kyiv, which Moscow believed would be easier.
- Ukrainian (Turkish) drones are being used to eliminate S2A threats, then being followed up with air strikes. It's quite possible that the 40 mile convoy will be completely annihilated before reinforcements join from the south. Continued reports of this convoy being a major source of abandonment by Russian forces.
- Russian forces are going to door to collecting cell phones, computers, any way of communicating. This is being reported from Northeast of Kyiv, and Southeast of Kyiv (close to Mariupol).
- Despite 400 some missile attacks, the Ukrainian missile defense system is still operational. Where that system is, and what exactly its protecting is obviously being kept secret.
I love that they have such a ripe target as a huge line of Russian weaponry just sitting there stalled in a line. I hope they can take advantage of that, despite not having A10s. I think those Turkish drones are pretty mighty in that scenario.
I saw an interview with a retired US Army colonel who had been in armored divisions. He was saying that just the thought of sitting in a huge armored convoy parked in the open would make him very very nervous.
If this is true https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/28/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets-00012560
Good hunting.
pheller said:In reply to 02Pilot :
Russia needs Europe and the Mediterranean because it's easy money, especially when we're talking natural gas. Eastern Europe can supply it's own gas if it wanted to, but Russians sold it for so cheap it was always more cost effective to buy from them.
This is one lesson I hope the world walks away with. When thinking about EU's need for Russian natural gas, and our current chip shortage, it's not in anyone's best interest to be dependent on other (possibly unstable or hostile) countries to have your needs met. Cheaper doesn't always cost less.
Apexcarver said:If this is true https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/28/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets-00012560
Good hunting.
"In a move likely aimed at increasing pressure on Europe to act, the Ukrainian parliament on Monday tweeted that Europe was sending 70 fighter planes to Ukraine, including 28 MiG-29s from Poland, 12 from Slovakia and 16 from Bulgaria, along with 14 Su-25s from Bulgaria."
Woo-Frikkin'-Hoo! 40 mile convoy here we come!
pheller said:We're more likely to see Putin get axed (figuratively or literally) and a pro-EU Russian administration gradually happen once the oligarchs have solidified the protection of their wealth - which after this war will likely be severely depleted.
That Belarusian idiot showed off pictures of the battle plan. Why are there US unit badges on the map? Also it looks like they are planning on joining with the Russian occupied part of Moldova
This is how I picture the Chinese and Russian relationship.
But that is just me. Back to the Ukrainian situation.
tuna55 said:Nick Comstock said:Mr_Asa said:volvoclearinghouse said:tuna55 said:pinchvalve (Forum Supporter) said:I grew up with Kiev as the capital of Ukrane, and it was pronounced -"Key-Ehv". Now I am seeing Kyiv and hearing "Keev". Apparently, both are correct.
From what I read, Russians call it key-ehv and Ukrainians call it keev.
Ah. So, if you pronounce it the first way, you're a secret Russian sympathizer. Got it.
Again, for hundreds of years, Russia has systematically tried to turn Ukraine into Russia. Including trying to erase their language.
I'm curious though, now that you know the difference which way are you going to pronounce it?
I'm the farthest thing you could possibly get from a Russian sympathizer but until two days ago I've only ever heard it pronounced key-ehv. I see no reason to change.
Once I heard it pronounced, I tried to start saying it the way people who live there do. Like pronouncing someone's name. I worked with a guy named Gnanasambuthu, and he just went by SAM (all in caps when written), so I called him, learned to say it, and that's that.
The only exception to that was Polish. I had a guy join my team named Bozydar. The first call with Team Poland went like this:Me: "blah blah and welcome to the newest member of the team, Bozydar."
:: Polish giggling ::
Tomasz (still giggling): "We wondered how you would say that! It's Bozydar!"
Me: "Bozydar?"
Tomasz: "No no no! It's Bozydar (giggling)"
Me: "Bozydar?"
Entire Polish team: "No no no!" giggling uncontrollably.
To me it sounded the exact same. I gave up.
I have a similar story about a coworker from Bosnia. His name was Biatzic. I had him pronounce it a few dozen times which I repeated and each time he said no, no, no. From then on his name was Boz.
It's like Listening to someone with a strong Appalachian dialect trying to learn Spanish. "oh la seen your".
So what would the penalty be if Ukraine strategically excised the Russian gas lines that run through their country?
I know it would seriously disrupt Europe's supply but it would be a significant financial and moral blow to the Russians.
An electronic billboard along Kyiv's Victory Avenue, which Russian forces would be expected to take if they reach that point, reads: "Russian soldiers, go f*** yourselves," according to Daphné Rousseau of Agence France-Presse. The same billboard also reads: "Putin lost, the entire world is with Ukraine."
gearheadmb said:pheller said:In reply to 02Pilot :
Russia needs Europe and the Mediterranean because it's easy money, especially when we're talking natural gas. Eastern Europe can supply it's own gas if it wanted to, but Russians sold it for so cheap it was always more cost effective to buy from them.
This is one lesson I hope the world walks away with. When thinking about EU's need for Russian natural gas, and our current chip shortage, it's not in anyone's best interest to be dependent on other (possibly unstable or hostile) countries to have your needs met. Cheaper doesn't always cost less.
Don't forget the US being reliant on China for a majority of our medicine. We weren't even at war with China, but when the pandemic hit, they were always going to make their own people their first priority and we'd get what was left over.
So far the 2020s has been one big lesson of why some amount of reshoring needs to happen.
NickD said:gearheadmb said:pheller said:In reply to 02Pilot :
Russia needs Europe and the Mediterranean because it's easy money, especially when we're talking natural gas. Eastern Europe can supply it's own gas if it wanted to, but Russians sold it for so cheap it was always more cost effective to buy from them.
This is one lesson I hope the world walks away with. When thinking about EU's need for Russian natural gas, and our current chip shortage, it's not in anyone's best interest to be dependent on other (possibly unstable or hostile) countries to have your needs met. Cheaper doesn't always cost less.
Don't forget the US being reliant on China for a majority of our medicine. We weren't even at war with China, but when the pandemic hit, they were always going to make their own people their first priority and we'd get what was left over.
So far the 2020s has been one big lesson of why some amount of reshoring needs to happen.
If people stopped buying Chinese made stuff, it would help. I am certainly going to try harder.
This is one of the most useful articles I've read: Ukraine through Russia's Eyes (RUSI) It offers tremendous insights into the Russian planning process, as well as some guidance on objectives. It also suggests that, contrary to some speculation, the Putin is acting rationally and in accordance with his intelligence services' assessments. It is important to remember that rational decision-making does not guarantee success.
In reply to 93EXCivic :
It would require building up the middle and lower class' wages up to where they were before they started sliding down around 1974. The big problem with a race to the bottom is that it is even harder to get back up from the bottom.
Which is, topically enough, a good chunk of why Putin feels he "has to" invade Ukraine... they're running out of wealth to milk in Russia and see a nice big fat target just to their south. That is easier than repairing their class structure.
NickD said:gearheadmb said:pheller said:In reply to 02Pilot :
Russia needs Europe and the Mediterranean because it's easy money, especially when we're talking natural gas. Eastern Europe can supply it's own gas if it wanted to, but Russians sold it for so cheap it was always more cost effective to buy from them.
This is one lesson I hope the world walks away with. When thinking about EU's need for Russian natural gas, and our current chip shortage, it's not in anyone's best interest to be dependent on other (possibly unstable or hostile) countries to have your needs met. Cheaper doesn't always cost less.
Don't forget the US being reliant on China for a majority of our medicine. We weren't even at war with China, but when the pandemic hit, they were always going to make their own people their first priority and we'd get what was left over.
So far the 2020s has been one big lesson of why some amount of reshoring needs to happen.
I certainly am no apologist for China, but when disaster strikes I think it's the responsibility of a country to take care of her own citizens first and then give what's left to the rest of the world.
wae said:NickD said:gearheadmb said:pheller said:In reply to 02Pilot :
Russia needs Europe and the Mediterranean because it's easy money, especially when we're talking natural gas. Eastern Europe can supply it's own gas if it wanted to, but Russians sold it for so cheap it was always more cost effective to buy from them.
This is one lesson I hope the world walks away with. When thinking about EU's need for Russian natural gas, and our current chip shortage, it's not in anyone's best interest to be dependent on other (possibly unstable or hostile) countries to have your needs met. Cheaper doesn't always cost less.
Don't forget the US being reliant on China for a majority of our medicine. We weren't even at war with China, but when the pandemic hit, they were always going to make their own people their first priority and we'd get what was left over.
So far the 2020s has been one big lesson of why some amount of reshoring needs to happen.
I certainly am no apologist for China, but when disaster strikes I think it's the responsibility of a country to take care of her own citizens first and then give what's left to the rest of the world.
And I don't blame them. I'm just saying why it's a bad idea to be nearly entirely reliant on any one country other than ourselves for medicine.
I read headlines like:
Ford suspends operations in Russia until further notice. There are similar from Apple as well as no shipments from UPS/FedEx.
What this then reminds me is there will be a lot of "out of work" Russians. No money, no fun and no where to go makes for restless peoples. It is possible they will direct that anger to the West but I more bet they direct that anger to Mother Russia.
Could get ugly inside!
Pete. (l33t FS) said:In reply to 93EXCivic :
It would require building up the middle and lower class' wages up to where they were before they started sliding down around 1974.
Amen brother
John Welsh said:I read headlines like:
Ford suspends operations in Russia until further notice. There are similar from Apple as well as no shipments from UPS/FedEx.
What this then reminds me is there will be a lot of "out of work" Russians. No money, no fun and no where to go makes for restless peoples. It is possible they will direct that anger to the West but I more bet they direct that anger to Mother Russia.
Could get ugly inside!
Oh good. Soviet era bread lines.
In reply to NickD :
And not just medicine. When you outsource most products you can become a hostage to those that have what you need. It's like we humans just refuse to learn from past mistakes. This has happened many times before. Why are we continuously surprised?
bobzilla said:In reply to NickD :
And not just medicine. When you outsource most products you can become a hostage to those that have what you need. It's like we humans just refuse to learn from past mistakes. This has happened many times before. Why are we continuously surprised?
Off topic but the people making the decisions grow disconnected from the people that feel the reactions/effects.
On topic, Russia already faces protests and unhappiness so bread lines could easily spark an attempted regime change. Coupled with all the culture hits and crackdowns online and it could get ugly quick. Same for Belarus if they catch similar sanctions over the fighting and desire to go nuclear.
Read one article on why the ruskies haven't dominated the Ukrainian Air Force. They don't have great communication with their groubd forces and are worried they will be targeted by their own sams.
this is believable to me seeing their lack of .... coordination? Poorly trained troops and a lack of proper cas support to keep from shooting down your own planes which, oh by the way look just like your enemies planes.
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