History in the Making: Russian Invasion

In reply to eastsideTim :

It turns out that the Marshall Plan was kind of a good idea.  Expensive but worth it.

I'm sure that there would be some fairly experienced vets. that might come forward under a quickly granted a Ukrainian residency? The planes join the Cold war era Migs supply by EU countries. Pretty sure the Ukrainian pilots have them mastered. Be a nice pairing. What would  Yunick have to say about the rules. The tech inspectors would be looking closely at a bit of "constructive interpreting". A bunch of countries are allowing service. Is this legal for you Yanks?

No rules in a knife fight.

I'm seeing news stories suggesting the Polish, Slovakian and Bulgarian fighter plane transfers aren't happening. That may be true, or just for public consumption while the planes secretly cross into Ukraine. I wouldn't think any of those three countries have large air forces that can afford to give up assets if they have any reason to believe Putin could turn on them next.

In reply to DeadSkunk (Warren) :

Big picture view though, Russians have stalled out and there are some primo targets where those birds could currently do a metric berkeleyton of damage. Is it better to hand them over to someone else to be utilized effectively now or hold onto them to piddle them away in a last-ditch defensive effort later when the Russian army gets it's steam back up? And it's in those countries' best interest to see the war stop in Ukraine before it spills into their borders.

In reply to NickD :

Or it may be a lack of pilots to fly them.

Given they are all NATO members and how freaking clueless the Russian forces have been against a nation with a military budget a tenth of the Russians, I don't think they have anything to fear from conventional weapons from the Russians.

DeadSkunk (Warren) said:

I'm seeing news stories suggesting the Polish, Slovakian and Bulgarian fighter plane transfers aren't happening. That may be true, or just for public consumption while the planes secretly cross into Ukraine. I wouldn't think any of those three countries have large air forces that can afford to give up assets if they have any reason to believe Putin could turn on them next.

I'm willing to bet the US is offering to replace those planes with retired ANG F-16's or maybe refurbs from Davis-Monthan....

Dunno if this is a 'shop or not...

In reply to stroker :

I saw it at one cent earlier today, so that's likely real.

Damn I should buy some rubles. They'll come back eventually, probably right after Vlad is ousted. 

Mndsm said:

Damn I should buy some rubles. They'll come back eventually, probably right after Vlad is ousted. 

I'm a hard-core value investor and initially thought the same thing. Morally though, buying rubles is supporting the war, and I just can't bring myself to do it. If I made a million dollars it wouldn't be worth selling my conscience. 

NickD said:

In reply to DeadSkunk (Warren) :

Big picture view though, Russians have stalled out and there are some primo targets where those birds could currently do a metric berkeleyton of damage. Is it better to hand them over to someone else to be utilized effectively now or hold onto them to piddle them away in a last-ditch defensive effort later when the Russian army gets it's steam back up? And it's in those countries' best interest to see the war stop in Ukraine before it spills into their borders.

Warthog pilots are having wet dreams of that 17-mile column. Can you say fish-in-a-barrell? Although if the Rooskies have any sense at all, they'll have anti-aircraft deployed en masse. 

My concern is that Russians have a long history of prevailing in wars of attrition, and are willing to lose a lot of lives in the process. If they can encircle Kiev, they could basically use their artillery till there's nothing but dust left. I have to think that their commanders are altering their tactics and learning from the fiasco so far. 

There's something perverse about us sitting here in comfort reveling in schadenfreude, reading heart-warming stories of valiant Ukranians standing up to the bear. This is real. Unless the Russian leadership has a quick turnaround, we're in for a long, dark time with many dead, a country with a wrecked infrastructure, homeless refugees... Damn you and your black heart, Putin. 

In reply to stroker :

It's real.   

Was even lower, but it's nosed up a bit since then.

Russian Warship, Go Berkeley Yourself said:

In reply to stroker :

It's real.   

Was even lower, but it's nosed up a bit since then.

barefootcyborg5000 said:

Russian Warship, Go Berkeley Yourself said:

In reply to stroker :

It's real.   

Was even lower, but it's nosed up a bit since then.

One is a currency?

I think it is time to update the English language a bit.  I got up this morning and thought I was going to have a quick trip to the bathroom, but I ended up having to take a massive Putin.

Couple of notable aircraft movements recently. Right now, there are at least three Indian C-17s inbound or outbound from the NATO countries bordering Ukraine. I'm guessing this is strictly non-lethal aid, but I've heard nothing about India providing relief supplies - something that usually gets played up in the media - so the question remains open. Second, there were a number of flights of Turkish cargo aircraft into Poland yesterday that were similarly unexplained; at least one report today the Ukraine is receiving more TB-2s, which would very much explain those flights. The TB-2s have been very effective thus far, and relieve many of the logistical stresses that would exist with the rumored resupply of fighters. That long Russian column north of Kyiv may be in for an interesting time.

Edit: Two Turkish C-130s and a KC-135 are just up and looking to rendezvous. Assuming those C-130s are heading to Poland, the only reason they should need to fuel before heading north is if they're loaded.

CrustyRedXpress said:

Mndsm said:

Damn I should buy some rubles. They'll come back eventually, probably right after Vlad is ousted. 

I'm a hard-core value investor and initially thought the same thing. Morally though, buying rubles is supporting the war, and I just can't bring myself to do it. If I made a million dollars it wouldn't be worth selling my conscience. 

That's an interesting conundrum. Buying rubles would help oligarchs and the machine that is Putin/whoever's regime. However- much like the us, there's a lot more broke asses than there are billionaires. If I've got a billion dollars and I lose half, I'm still pretty rich. If I've got 100k and I lose half, that hurts way worse. If I've got 10 and I lose 5, I can't feed my kids. In the long term it could be worth it to throw some $$$ into that, if for nothing else than to help the Russian populous that's actually being punished for this. Not to say the elite aren't, but they can still afford to not be in bread lines. 

Mndsm said:

CrustyRedXpress said:

Mndsm said:

Damn I should buy some rubles. They'll come back eventually, probably right after Vlad is ousted. 

I'm a hard-core value investor and initially thought the same thing. Morally though, buying rubles is supporting the war, and I just can't bring myself to do it. If I made a million dollars it wouldn't be worth selling my conscience. 

That's an interesting conundrum. Buying rubles would help oligarchs and the machine that is Putin/whoever's regime. However- much like the us, there's a lot more broke asses than there are billionaires. If I've got a billion dollars and I lose half, I'm still pretty rich. If I've got 100k and I lose half, that hurts way worse. If I've got 10 and I lose 5, I can't feed my kids. In the long term it could be worth it to throw some $$$ into that, if for nothing else than to help the Russian populous that's actually being punished for this. Not to say the elite aren't, but they can still afford to not be in bread lines. 

I've been pondering this as well.  I'd only be throwing a couple hundred into it, and I can't imagine that would be a huge mover.  Although if everyone on the forum were to do the same amount...

02Pilot said:

Couple of notable aircraft movements recently. Right now, there are at least three Indian C-17s inbound or outbound from the NATO countries bordering Ukraine. I'm guessing this is strictly non-lethal aid...

India gets some their military hardware from Russia, including MiG-29's.

I don't know if one will fit in a c-17, (I am sure you would need to take the wings off, if that is possible) but spares and parts certainly will.

As mentioned earlier, they may be setting up for some more aggressive air operations. 

In reply to Mr_Asa :

Don't forget this is the third ruble though. The Soviet Ruble went to a new ruble (RUR 1992-1998) then another new ruble (RUB 1998 to now).

eastsideTim said:

I think it is time to update the English language a bit.  I got up this morning and thought I was going to have a quick trip to the bathroom, but I ended up having to take a massive Putin.

I like it, but I think it should more specifically refer to a turd that is smaller than you expected.

"Man, I really had to go, but it turned just to be a Putin"

93EXCivic said:

In reply to Mr_Asa :

Don't forget this is the third ruble though. The Soviet Ruble went to a new ruble (RUR 1992-1998) then another new ruble (RUB 1998 to now).

True, but I would expect a full world war for this to result in a fourth.

Counterpoint- the average citizen that's getting really hurt by currency devaluation does not have any investments. The only thing that will affect them are price changes on goods and services which are much slower to react to the value of the currency and likely to be propped up by the Russian government. 

If you want to invest in something, maybe Ukrainian hryvnia? Or Ukrainian companies? I know of a large number of model companies out there, some of which managed to get to Poland with some stock. There's also Antonov.

God it is depressing how much large parts of this sounds like the current war in Ukraine especially the start of the first war...