In reply to irish44j (Forum Supporter) :
Yep, no question at all. I wonder how many of the conscript forces have deserted, we honestly may never know.
Discussion on how the Russian Economy is Super Fragile: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1499855858456567809?s=09
The Lads Recreated that Cossak's image: https://twitter.com/Eastern_Border/status/1499780948900126726
VolvoHeretic said:Remember about 7 years ago when China changed their definition of rubber? Haha!
How cheap Chinese tires might explain Russia's 'stalled' 40-mile-long military convoy in Ukraine
China changes compound rubber recipe; move to hurt top producers
An interesting point, though seems a bit odd considering Russia itself is the leading rubber producer in the world (to my recollection). But if China is selling them cheap crap, I'm all for that!
The downside, of course, to the heavy destruction of Russian ground forces is that they're going to resort to far more powerful standoff weapons - which do much more indiscriminate damagefrom a distance, and are extremely hard for Ukraine to counter at all (e.g. LACMs launched from Russian ships off the coast and ALCMs launched from bombers in Russian airpsace, not to mention long-range ground-launched rockets and missiles).
I love seeing all the armor getting Javelin'd, but it's likely also shifting Putin's calculus toward simply total destruction of Ukraine, vice what he probably hoped would be a relatively painless occupation and takeover.
I am working under the assumption that Putin is not insane and that there is a vision where Russia comes out of this smelling like a rose for somebody.
I am working under the assumptions that Putin is satisfying the requirements of a un-named power group. No leader rises to power on their own; they represent and spearhead somebody's power requirements and ambitions.
What I keep looking for is the endgame. How does this work long term for Russia? What kind of a timeline is required to make this project gel and what is its final form? All I can see is a Tiger-by-the-tail situation.
Is there ANY chance Putin honestly thought Ukraine was going to welcome Russia with open arms or that the rest of the world was going to roll over?
I don't know if this has been posted before, but I came across it in a discussion on Reddit
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
If this is Putin's roadmap, and some of the comments I read indicated that he has spoken about it in the past (taking all of this with a shaker of salt), it is very concerning.
In reply to NOHOME :
I have limited knowledge of the functional structure of Russia's hierarchy of power, but I concur your assessment that Putin is not alone in his objectives; the goals that he has set out are supported by others, but I would not go so far as to suggest that he is working on their behalf. Putin is the top of the pyramid, but he has to ensure that the lower levels remain intact if he wishes to stay there. Through a combination of fear and patronage he has done so thus far, but it remains to be seen whether the lowest level - the Russian people - can be held in place.
I'm quite certain he has a desired end-state for this, but whether it's achievable is another question. I've outlined my views on this before, but essentially it is a puppet state Ukraine or part thereof, possibly leaving a rump free state in the western half, cut off from access to the sea. Russia may intend to confine its occupation efforts to the areas with significant ethnic Russian population. I don't think this is realistic at this point, but Putin certainly envisioned a relatively easy period of pacification, especially in the eastern regions.
As to his assessments of Ukraine's reaction, see the intelligence reports I posted a while back. It seems his intelligence services were quite wrong on how Ukrainians would react. As for the West, I think - based on recent events - Putin had every reason to think there would be a lot of hand-wringing and probably a few new sanctions, but not much else. The strong resistance from Ukraine and unified response from the West have almost certainly caught him by surprise.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Yeah, I'm certain the 24 hour response had Putin quoting the insurance ad "That's not how this works, that's not how any of this works!"
VolvoHeretic said:Remember about 7 years ago when China changed their definition of rubber? Haha!
China changes compound rubber recipe; move to hurt top producers
How cheap Chinese tires might explain Russia's 'stalled' 40-mile-long military convoy in Ukraine
And that's why we don't buy Chinese tires, kids!
https://www.wpr.org/new-beer-label-raises-money-ukraine-taking-pointed-and-profane-aim-putin
Leave it to Wisconsinites to fight autocracy one can of beer at a time.
Starting this weekend, Milwaukee’s Lakefront Brewery is selling 32-ounce take-home crowlers that come with a new label featuring Russian President Vladimir Putin. The words, "Putin is a dick" are scrawled across the autocrat’s forehead while a tank takes aim at his head.
"It seems to be a popular theme around the world," said Lakefront Brewery Brand Manager Michael Stodola, who designed the label.
The aluminum crowlers cost about $15 each, depending on your choice of beer, and Lakefront will donate $10 from each can to the National Bank of Ukraine’s fund for refugees. With their run of 1,000 labels they’re expecting to raise $10,000.
"It's just a great, easy way for us to bring awareness to a cause and then, you know, do something about it," Stodola said.
The labels were inspired by a similarly-named beer from Ukraine’s Pravda Brewery in Lviv. Lakefront sells their beer at Pravda and the two breweries have collaborated on beers in the past, including the popular "Putin khuylo," which translates roughly to "Putin is a dickhead."
As the war intensifies, Pravda has started making Molotov cocktails and Ukrainians are lobbing the insult "Putin khuylo" at invading Russian forces.
In reply to Wxdude10 - Mike :
Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism, for instance, provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics".
Well then.....
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:You guys are relentless and I love it.
Ok. We just missed one that GRM would have been a great fit for (A town wanted to install 15 heat pumps in a closed school, and convert it into a shelter for 45 refugees) but I promise that when I find another opportunity, I will jump on it and post it here.
Damn it, I got it. I think it's good. I'm waiting for confirmation, but should have details at 8am my time.
A bit of "things we can't discuss", but I wouldn't say the above is not entirely off base. It's pretty clear that outside influencers are very much in favor of, and there is evidence of them, fomenting decent in this country by means of over exaggerating things (this is on BOTH ends of course).
Just the fact the we can no longer reasonable discuss a number of topic on here, is a prime example, and I think I can safely say, this board is a MUCH higher level of conversation than most internet boards. It IS working.
If people had any real idea (and I don't know what the real number is) how much of the BS that is on Facebook or Reddit (for example) is essentially sourced from China and Russia, they would be both shocked and embarrassed.
A small peek into what it's like on the ground from a couple of accidental Ukrainian pen pals. As some might know, I have a small collection of Soviet watches. These all come out of Ukraine. When the Russians invaded, I had a couple of orders out there. I contacted both of the sellers and told them to use the money, take care of themselves and don't worry about trying to ship anything out. Just take care of yourselves. One decided to still try to ship, because life goes on even in a war zone.
Thank you for your understanding. We have just been informed that the post office has resumed international shipments after the outbreak of hostilities. But when I wanted to send the parcels, it turned out that they can accept, but it is unknown when the car will arrive for them. So more later.
We hope that this horror will end soon.
Regards,
Serg
The other refused to hold my money as that was bad business, so she sent me a refund and I thought that was it. Then this arrived yesterday. It's easy to watch tractors stealing APCs and think of the Russian forces as just a bunch of clowns, but this is real. The Russian people have no idea.
Dear Keith. Sorry for posting after a long time. Thanks for the sympathy, it's not funny at all. It's good that you understand me. My mother lives in Russia. She doesn't believe me that there is a war here. She thinks that Russia does not kill anyone. Because of the events in Ukraine, I am forced to temporarily flee to Poland with my little grandchildren and my daughter, their mother. My husband and son-in-law stayed in Ukraine, as men are not allowed to leave. We were very well received, we do not need anything - neither food, nor housing, nor clothing. We didn't have that in Ukraine. Thanks to God and the people who are worried about us.
The Bible predicts that wars mean that Jehovah God will soon restore order and there will be peace throughout the earth. I really want to wait for this!
Best regards, Olga
Starting something that should hopefully lead to some good:
He's a tiny ghost!
The news seems to be pushing the gloom and doom, the end is nigh narrative about the fate of the Ukrainian. I am not really seeing that in the info I am see. To be sure, not a good situation for many Ukrainians (especially with the more indiscriminate shelling / rocketing) and a few smaller city have fallen, but the Russians still haven't gotten into Kiev, and are still making little progress in the east.
Russian aircraft and helicopters seem to be being shot down at an accelerated rate, which will almost certainly only get worse as Ukrainian air defense seems to be popping up more and more (and more "stuff" is showing up). Of course, the many example of the less then impressive capabilities and moral of some of Russia's troops. As well as the many example of the wildly steadfast attitude of many of the Ukrainians.
A note with Ukrainian statements and info: As mentioned previously, the Ukrainians are very similar to the Russians in many ways, and one of those ways is SciOps. So, some of the info coming out of them may not be entirely and completely accurate (!) As an example the "Ghost of Kiev" plane, may be a bit of a fabrication. It might exist, if might have shot down some planes, but the videos used in the info released on it where apparently not entirely accurate (whether this is an act of Ukraine of some internet dude, who knows). The statement about the kill squad being killed was also pretty interesting as it stated that people inside the FSB told them about them(!) Apparently some of the leaders of the organization have wife's or relations who are Ukrainian(!) As you can imagine, this might inspire some "questioning".
During a live broadcast by the Rada TV channel, Danilov said that certain sources in Russia’s FSB security service oppose the war Moscow wages on Ukraine, gave Kyiv critical intelligence that led to Ramzan Kadyrov’s “elite” squad being eliminated.
Oh, and Put Put is now saying any sanctions are effectively acts of war...
... so, you are saying we should just jump in there in shoot down all you planes and blast you tanks, because, as you stated, we are already at war?
BTW - Love what you are doing over there Hungary Bill. Please don't hesitate to start a new thread about your efforts. You might get more eyes on it than just this thread.
In reply to aircooled :
I mean, if we're at war, let's heat up the big guns and let em eat? I'm still pretty sure that NATO led forces on the "defense" with the right toys could end Putin's push without too many allied casualties, especially if we get to droning convoys and stuff.
In reply to aircooled :
Sanctions are why Japan hit Pearl Harbor. They saw it as an act of non neutrality to send materiel and aviators to China, and then cutting off oil and steel shipments to Japan.
Given that everyone with a modern military is sanctioning Russia... is that really an attitude to take?
"The Ghost of Kyev" is most certainly either a fabrication or the sum total of everything the Ukrainian Air Force shot down over Kyev in the first 2 days combined. Using that as morale is fine by me.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:
In reply to aircooled :
Sanctions are why Japan hit Pearl Harbor. They saw it as an act of non neutrality to send materiel and aviators to China, and then cutting off oil and steel shipments to Japan.
Much like the current situation, the sanctions on Japan where basically an excuse to attack Pearl Harbor which was going to happen eventually anyway, and pretty much everyone paying attention knew that.
Attacking the US did nothing to improve their oil situation. They knew they were going to end up in a conflict with the US eventually, and where well aware that would happen via Pearl Harbor a long time before:
Yamamoto was not the first person to think of attacking the American naval base at Pearl Harbor. As early as 1927, war games at the Japanese Navy War College included an examination of a carrier raid against Pearl Harbor. The following year, a certain Captain Yamamoto lectured on the same topic. By the time the United States moved the Pacific Fleet from the West Coast to Pearl Harbor in May 1940, Yamamoto was already exploring how to execute such a bold operation. According to the chief of staff of the Combined Fleet, Vice Admiral Fukudome Shigeru, Yamamoto first discussed an attack on Pearl Harbor in March or April 1940. This clearly indicates that Yamamoto did not copy the idea of attacking a fleet in its base after observing the British carrier raid on the Italian base at Taranto in November 1940. After the completion of the Combined Fleet’s annual maneuvers in the fall of 1940, Yamamoto told Fukudome to direct Rear Admiral Onishi Takijiro to study a Pearl Harbor attack under the utmost secrecy. After the Taranto attack, Yamamoto wrote to a fellow admiral and friend stating that he had decided to launch the Pearl Harbor attack in December 1940.
If it is to be believed that Yamamoto decided on his daring attack as early as December 1940, several issues are brought into focus. First and foremost, it can be established that Yamamoto had decided on this risky course of action even before the advantages and disadvantages of such an action could be fully weighed. Also, in late 1940, Yamamoto did not even possess the technical means to mount such an operation....
https://www.thehistoryreader.com/military-history/yamamoto-planning-pearl-harbor/
History... it can be a bit repetitive.
repetitive.
repetitive.
(that's why it's important, for at least somene, to study it)
Stating that sanctions are an act of war is some distance from acting upon such statements. Putin is clearly acknowledging that the sanctions are having an effect, but to go from stating that to opening hostilities is a large leap. Encouraging that leap would turn out badly for everyone, tempting though it might be in the immediate circumstances.
The analogy of Japan in WW2 is a good one: the Japanese felt they had a clear choice - allow American hegemony in the Eastern Pacific, or fight to establish their own in its place; there was no scenario they could envision where the two powers could coexist in that region while still allowing Japan to grow as an empire. There was a sense of desperation at the limitations on critical resources brought on by US sanctions, and time was a major factor in Japanese decision-making. At this point, I think Putin still feels he can maintain his position, though he knows the sanctions will make that increasingly difficult; as I've said here before, time is not on Russia's side here. Let's hope that internal power dynamics within his government, a resolution to the Ukraine situation, or a popular uprising resolve the situation before he decides he has only one option remaining if he wishes to stay in power.
I would just like to thank everyone for staying civil to each other and keeping this thread going . We all have different views I am sure but I check this frequently and there has been a lot of great information.
I haven't seen this mentioned here yet, and I spent about a half an hour trying to figure out how authentic it actually is. (EDIT- Christo Grozev from Belllingcat has decent confidence in it.
But it is certainly interesting, to say the least-
Purported FSB Leak
There are quite a few takeaways here, if true. Not the least of which is the difference in Russian nukes compared to what I thought I knew about the ones in the U.S. There's so much more in there, including some stuff that we have been discussing and WMD, but I will let smarter folks than myself discuss it first.
Edit #2
Original post, if you want to translate-
https://www.facebook.com/vladimir.osechkin/posts/4811633942268327
Rather interesting. Also hard to read (I am guessing because it is a direct translation)
What appears to be worries about the ability to sustain things rings very likely.
In regards to the functionality of their nukes, it would not be terribly surprising to find that a lot of their supposed capability is just "snow painted green". (See post many pages back)
Perhaps this is the leak the Ukrainians mentioned? Of course, if you have a good source for info, the last thing you want to do is expose it to the enemy. So....
This, and other things, point to a potential for a very serious moral problem in the Russian army, and maybe in the Russian military in general.
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