History in the Making: Russian Invasion

In reply to Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) :

It was a couple of months ago, residue in a vape pen.  It's just hitting the news now.

In reply to Streetwiseguy :

Yeah arrested a few weeks old but now they are talking about fast tracking the max sentence unless US negotiates. 

And as a note she has been playing off season in Russia for years. She knows the expectations. 

In reply to wae :

Putin was not placated with Crimea or Chechnya...

In reply to wae :

The similarities between then and now are eerie.  The other thing that facinates me is how the world at large is able to almost watch this enfold in real time.

In reply to wae :

There are a few differences between 1937 and now. One and to me the biggest, Germany had the most modern and powerful military in Europe. Russia has shown it really doesn't. Two you pointed out, nukes change things a lot. Three, the amount that the world has globalized make sanctions much more effective then at that time.

Yes, the Ukrainian people are fighting back with everything they can. 
They know what the Russians did to Grozny, capitol of Chechnya. there's a lot of discussion about Putin having limited options. Ukrainians have no other options other than full on resistance or capitulation.

QuasiMofo (John Brown) said:

And as a note she has been playing off season in Russia for years. She knows the expectations. 

That was sorta my thought. Not saying that the severity of the issue isn't motivated by this- but you had weed vapes in a country where weed vapes are illegal. Play stupid games win stupid prizes. It's not like Russia had a spectacular track record of humanity prior to this. 

The other question I'm not seeing addressed is just how much pain ($) and for how long we're willing to pay to stop Vlad.  I can afford a few months of stupid prices but a prolonged price spike in my cost of living is going to be really difficult.  The only winning scenario I can see for Ukraine is going to take a very long time...

There's a rumor that the Russians are not advancing as quickly because of crappy Chinese tires and lots of "deferred maintenance".

In reply to 02Pilot :

I have read some articles regarding Putin's discussions with then-president Bill Clinton about joining NATO.  Obviously this was 22+ years ago.  At the time, apparently, they were rebuffed.  Was this a part of Russia's long play "reflexive control", or a missed opportunity (again, hindsight being 20-20, and looking for causes here, not placing blame) to bring Russia in with the rest of the world?

Also interesting to see the pictures of Putin alongside Bill Clinton.  Putin looks almost childlike, then. 

Ukraine again tells one of the Russian Warships that attacked Snake Island to well, you know.

This time with with even more emphasis.  


 

So we dropped off another donation at the shelter today.  Our guests are settled in, some have moved on to other locations, and about 30 or so remain.  The kitchen is stocked enough that people can cook and eat in it, and people are doing just that.  We got a couple TV's up and running with digital decoders...  Toys have been delivered... Things there have really calmed down and the mood is definitely improved.  We were feeling pretty good about things, until we got the news:  60 more people are supposed to arrive, and they were supposed to arrive two days ago.  oof.   We fired up the volunteer machine and will get started getting welcome packages together I think.  Learning from last time, I think we can do a better job this time.  Two people are lined up to deliver a truckload each to the Hungary house tomorrow.

Three students have now arrived from Ukraine.  Two are Nigerian, and one is Ukrainian.  They're staying with an American couple in town, and have gotten settled in quite well.  They say it took them 4-days to get to and cross the border.  They talked a bit about running out of water, and all sorts of stuff along the way.  One has been studying medicine for 5 years, and had his school get shelled.  He's worried about losing his records.

The other Nigerian student is from Kyiv, and mentioned there may be an option for him to pursue his studies online but everything is uncertain at the moment.

The third (Ukrainian) student, I didn't meet.  She was sleeping off a hangover.  The American couple took the three out on the town to blow off some steam.  Apparently they had a pretty good time.

All have gotten in contact with their families, after nearly a week of not being able to.

The two Nigerian guys are looking for work, and I've been busy with other things, so I might hire them to do a little construction around our new place.  I figure a few hours around the place once or twice a week might get them some pocket change until a more permanent solution can be found.

Interesting times.

 

Shoot, I almost forgot.

That link in my last post?  The members of this forum have donated nearly 1.5-million Hungarian Forint (over $4000 USD) towards the construction of a shelter 64-kms away, and they did so in less than 24 hours.  The funds are scheduled to be delivered to the mayor of the village (who is spearheading the effort) on Friday morning my time.  They're expecting to take in up to 45 refugees.

Amazing times.

"Reflexive Control" doctrine as a national policy translates to "This government is a Sociopath".

Putin himself appears to be a sociopath. A question for future academics is which came first, Putin as individual SP or Russian government SP.

Empaths (normal people) are ill-equipped to interact with a real SP, because reasons. The mistake is thinking a SP can be persuaded or shamed to do the right thing. They must simply be out-sociopathed or locked up or terminated.

A quick map update:  General states are similar.  One important note is the push from the east into Kiev has clearly made some ground.  One has to wonder how secure that supply line is though.  One of the notes along that line are of a Russian fuel convoy being attacked and destroyed.  Seems clear the Russians are still setting up for some push into Kiev.

It seems like there has been a fairly large amount of Russian air activity / strikes in the last day or so, including in the Western areas.  I would suspect this has something to do with trying to keep the Ukrainians from reconstituting their air force.

A guess on my part:  How exactly things are going can be a bit of "looking through the smoke" kind of thing.  I am suspicious one of the best reads on the actual situation in regards to troop positions / movements is in the hand of western / US intelligence, they have been watching things VERY closely.  Reading through the comments of US leaders and military types who should be in the know (e.g. not some random politician) could give a good idea of the reality of the situation.  E.g. if the general theme/feel is: "we are very concerned", then... you should probably be concerned.

Also of note, and a bit of a correction on my part, the vehicle shown above in 914's post is a Pantsir, a Russian mobile air defense system (and a very expensive piece of equipment to be leaving by the side of the road).  THIS is the system I was thinking of that was easily defeated by drones in Syria, not the S-400.

Has that 40-km convoy been blown to hell yet? Because what if the plan is "park valuable assets along side of road because they'll think we broke down and won't realize that parking them here supports our later attack"? Hiding in plain sight and all that.

AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) said:

Has that 40-km convoy been blown to hell yet? Because what if the plan is "park valuable assets along side of road because they'll think we broke down and won't realize that parking them here supports our later attack"? Hiding in plain sight and all that.

I dont know, but that HAS to be something other than what it is... because a 40-mile convoy has to be the absolute DUMBEST logistical move/tactical nightmare I've ever heard of...  How that thing ever moved in the first place is completely beyond me.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:

AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) said:

Has that 40-km convoy been blown to hell yet? Because what if the plan is "park valuable assets along side of road because they'll think we broke down and won't realize that parking them here supports our later attack"? Hiding in plain sight and all that.

I dont know, but that HAS to be something other than what it is... because a 40-mile convoy has to be the absolute DUMBEST logistical move/tactical nightmare I've ever heard of...  How that thing ever moved in the first place is completely beyond me.

From what I've read, it started out as a whole bunch of smaller, more spread out convoys, but breakdowns, ambushes, and desertions slowed down the further forward units more quickly, so it all just kind of bunched up.

eastsideTim said:

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:

AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) said:

Has that 40-km convoy been blown to hell yet? Because what if the plan is "park valuable assets along side of road because they'll think we broke down and won't realize that parking them here supports our later attack"? Hiding in plain sight and all that.

I dont know, but that HAS to be something other than what it is... because a 40-mile convoy has to be the absolute DUMBEST logistical move/tactical nightmare I've ever heard of...  How that thing ever moved in the first place is completely beyond me.

From what I've read, it started out as a whole bunch of smaller, more spread out convoys, but breakdowns, ambushes, and desertions slowed down the further forward units more quickly, so it all just kind of bunched up.

I think this has incompetence written on it rather than forward thinking and wisdom.

Good article from the Atlantic today

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-kremlin-imperialism-ukraine-american-power/624180/

eastsideTim said:

From what I've read, it started out as a whole bunch of smaller, more spread out convoys, but breakdowns, ambushes, and desertions slowed down the further forward units more quickly, so it all just kind of bunched up.

Supposedly the issue with the tires have restricted them to driving on the roads, rather than taking to the dirt (mud) around them.  It doesn't take many disabled vehicles to block smaller roads, especially when we're talking about large military vehicles.  There's no AAA to haul the vehicles away either...

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

My take is that this is too far in the past for the Russians to be exercising reflexive control or any other manipulative doctrine. The Russians call them the "Hungry 90s" - Russia needed friends with money and a willingness to spend it on them, and was willing to entertain almost anything. At that time, there was also a ridiculous level of optimism in the West about how everyone was going to get together and sing Kumbaya for all eternity. I don't think it was ever realistic, but had Russia somehow ended up in NATO, would it have made much difference in Putin's policies? I tend to doubt it, and if I'm correct, think about how problematic the current situation would be.

Good article here as well.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-04/what-if-russia-loses

My question is: How easily can the west disable the nuclear capabilities of a defeated and demoralized Russia? Without ICBM and nuclear capability, Russia is no longer a threat to anyone, and that fact may just enable them to rebuild in a modern way which would benefit Russians as well.

re: the Big Convoy At The Side Of The Road...  I wonder if anyone has seen a significant number of soldiers around those vehicles?  Is it possible, given the stoppage, that nobody scheduled food/etc for the crews and they might have simply abandoned their rigs?