History in the Making: Russian Invasion

irish44j (Forum Supporter) said:

happened to be browsing Marketplace and found this (fake listing but this is actually his yacht). For those who don't know, its name is "Graceful." 

Been scanning ebay and FBM in hopes so scoring a good deal in some sweet low km Russian armored vehicles. Not entirely sure if they qualify for the challenge, but hey.

On amore serious note, seems that the yachts and jets are not actually taken away, Just stored  and maintained at tax payer expense until the legal battles end sometime in the future.

Quick map update:   Not much change again.  Seemingly little if no progress into Kyiv from the west (even some Ukrainian push back).  It looks like the effort is from the east now in an attempt to encircle. The Ukrainians seem to be doing some good damage there also.  As mentioned before though, I do wonder about those supply lines.  That blue bomb to the west of Kyiv is a report of destruction of Russian vehicles by an artillery strike, which is interesting.

This is... interesting (if true):

irish44j (Forum Supporter) said:

The drone video this morning of an entire Russian tank column getting blasted while leisurely convoying through a Ukrainian village outside Kiev speaks to the total disregard for combat tactics the Russians have. Even after all the losses they've taken they still think sheer numbers of tanks are going to accomplish something. To make it worse after they come under fire they try to spread out into the nearby farm fields and it appears they all get stuck in the mud....

If this war is done anything it's shown they total effectiveness of handheld anti-tank weapons like the javelin. I hope that US army is paying close attention when it decides how much budget is going to future tank purchases. Because every two bit insurgency that we fight against in the future is going to have stuff like this, And they can kill our tanks just as well as they can kill the Russian ones I'm sure.

As someone that was closely associated with the tank industry for a couple years, tanks are going away.  Not today, not in 10 years, but they are rapidly losing the war for superiority against individuals and "handheld" weapons.

USMC had three active duty tank battalions when Dad was in.  Two when I was active Air Force. Now they are down to one and the Army has all their old Abrams.  By 2030 there will be no tanks in the USMC. Some of this is just downsizing of the forces, but not all of it.

Not sure what the Army's plans are for them.

Why does it look like Russia is sandbagging? Both the soldiers and the weapons so far look like they are all left-overs. We know for a fact that they have more sophisticated missiles that they are not using.

Is it possible that they are holding the "Good Stuff" back until they can get NATO to jump into the fray?

Someone needs to design and start selling a T shirt that declares "Ukrainians are NOT Russians, We are HUMANS". Maybe with the image of a Russian soldier eating a baby while sitting on the mother.

Mr_Asa said:

irish44j (Forum Supporter) said:

The drone video this morning of an entire Russian tank column getting blasted while leisurely convoying through a Ukrainian village outside Kiev speaks to the total disregard for combat tactics the Russians have. Even after all the losses they've taken they still think sheer numbers of tanks are going to accomplish something. To make it worse after they come under fire they try to spread out into the nearby farm fields and it appears they all get stuck in the mud....

If this war is done anything it's shown they total effectiveness of handheld anti-tank weapons like the javelin. I hope that US army is paying close attention when it decides how much budget is going to future tank purchases. Because every two bit insurgency that we fight against in the future is going to have stuff like this, And they can kill our tanks just as well as they can kill the Russian ones I'm sure.

As someone that was closely associated with the tank industry for a couple years, tanks are going away.  Not today, not in 10 years, but they are rapidly losing the war for superiority against individuals and "handheld" weapons.

USMC had three active duty tank battalions when Dad was in.  Two when I was active Air Force. Now they are down to one and the Army has all their old Abrams.  By 2030 there will be no tanks in the USMC. Some of this is just downsizing of the forces, but not all of it.

Not sure what the Army's plans are for them.

Air assets (manned and unmanned) are the future.  Tanks are cool and ours are pretty impressive but they cost a lot and are expensive to operate.  A cheap unmanned drone with a single missile projects good power while exposing no warfighters to injury.

aircooled said:

Same goes for Stingers.  They probably didn't have a huge amount of Manpads (Man Portable Air Defense), but they certainly do now!  I have heard the Ukrainians are even using ripple fire tactics with the Stingers:  a Stinger fires at a helicopter from one angle, which forces it to maneuver and drop flares, just before another Stinger from a different angle puts one right up the old tailpipe!  Not something you do when you are sort on ammo!

But it MIGHT be something you do when you're desperate...  :(

On the topic of yachts and mansions being paid for by skimming and fraud, how do the Russian people think Putin can afford all of his stuff on a presidential salary? Or do they not know he's a billionaire with expensive tastes in palaces and yachts? I know our politicians get rich in and after office, but not to that level.

In reply to Mndsm :

Depends... did he "find" it because it ran out of fuel and the crew abandoned it?  IIRC, the fuel use is measured in gallons/liters per hour, since measurements like MPG would be too depressing to think about.  Does Igor happen to have a drum of diesel he can easily dump into the tank to retrieve it?  

In reply to stroker :

I'm pretty sure the Ukrainian forces have been "desperate" since the war started.  

In reply to llysgennad :

Russia has been run more or less like a mafia for as long as most of the citizens have been alive:  SNAFU.  At least that's how it's been described to me over the years from those who have managed to get out.  

NOHOME said:

Why does it look like Russia is sandbagging? Both the soldiers and the weapons so far look like they are all left-overs. We know for a fact that they have more sophisticated missiles that they are not using.

 

Is it possible that they are holding the "Good Stuff" back until they can get NATO to jump into the fray?

I cant help thinking Putin figure the "F troops" and war surplus hardware would be enough to force Ukrainian surrender or cause the West to jump in. Save the best troops, modern equipment, for his desired showdown with NATO would make sense.

llysgennad said:

On the topic of yachts and mansions being paid for by skimming and fraud, how do the Russian people think Putin can afford all of his stuff on a presidential salary? Or do they not know he's a billionaire with expensive tastes in palaces and yachts? I know our politicians get rich in and after office, but not to that level.

https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1501878715709632518 this explains how it works pretty well and it's sick. Every oligarch/politician in Russia is like this.

Over 1,000 Russian vehicles destroyed, abandoned, or captured as confirmed with 1st-hand, geolocated photos/film and collated by a 3rd party. More captured than destroyed to the point that Ukraine now has more of some vehicles than they did before the invasion!

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

llysgennad said:

On the topic of yachts and mansions being paid for by skimming and fraud, how do the Russian people think Putin can afford all of his stuff on a presidential salary? Or do they not know he's a billionaire with expensive tastes in palaces and yachts? I know our politicians get rich in and after office, but not to that level.

This might help answer that question...

From a friend of Mrs Oldfart that is in the Ukraine'

Nice Ukrainian Babas felt sorry for the hungry Russians entering their village,  served them nice pastries,tea and pleasant smiles. Really smiling when the troops drove away waving. Last laugh was that both were heavily laced with laxative herbs. It might be a tough day to spend locked inside a tank!

fastoldfart said:

NOHOME said:

Why does it look like Russia is sandbagging? Both the soldiers and the weapons so far look like they are all left-overs. We know for a fact that they have more sophisticated missiles that they are not using.

 

Is it possible that they are holding the "Good Stuff" back until they can get NATO to jump into the fray?

I cant help thinking Putin figure the "F troops" and war surplus hardware would be enough to force Ukrainian surrender or cause the West to jump in. Save the best troops, modern equipment, for his desired showdown with NATO would make sense.

That makes for good tin-foil hat fodder, but makes pretty much zero tactical sense.  It's fairly obvious Russia's plan was to essentially blitzkrieg Ukraine and gain control quickly so as to not get bogged down in a protracted conflict. You don't do that with "F-troops". 

In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :

Not sure. Either way Igor has more missiles than I do. 

In reply to Mndsm :

Check eBay in a few months, maybe?

fastoldfart said:

NOHOME said:

Why does it look like Russia is sandbagging? Both the soldiers and the weapons so far look like they are all left-overs. We know for a fact that they have more sophisticated missiles that they are not using.

 

Is it possible that they are holding the "Good Stuff" back until they can get NATO to jump into the fray?

I cant help thinking Putin figure the "F troops" and war surplus hardware would be enough to force Ukrainian surrender or cause the West to jump in. Save the best troops, modern equipment, for his desired showdown with NATO would make sense.

Something to keep in mind is although Russia has some new and probably fairly capable equipment. They have very little of it. They only have like 10 of their new generation fighter and 100 of their new main battle tank etc. We know they don't have a large stock precision guide plane launched armaments.

Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:

fastoldfart said:

NOHOME said:

Why does it look like Russia is sandbagging? Both the soldiers and the weapons so far look like they are all left-overs. We know for a fact that they have more sophisticated missiles that they are not using.

 

Is it possible that they are holding the "Good Stuff" back until they can get NATO to jump into the fray?

I cant help thinking Putin figure the "F troops" and war surplus hardware would be enough to force Ukrainian surrender or cause the West to jump in. Save the best troops, modern equipment, for his desired showdown with NATO would make sense.

That makes for good tin-foil hat fodder, but makes pretty much zero tactical sense.  It's fairly obvious Russia's plan was to essentially blitzkrieg Ukraine and gain control quickly so as to not get bogged down in a protracted conflict. You don't do that with "F-troops". 

If this was the russian version of shock and awe/blitzkrieg, they suck at it. They did not control the skies from moment one. They did not tackle the command/control centers. They did not kill enemy comunication, hell it looks like they did the OPPOSITE. Looking at their performance does not seem that quick takeover was their goal.

Maybe this is because they haven't adapted to a different style of fighting and throwing troops and supplies at the problem is their only way they know to tackle it. OR, they planned on a NATO intervention quickly and held the "good" troops and equipment in reserve to surprise the west. I think it could be either or both. If this IS the best other russia has to offer, than the west has given them much more leeway than they should have because they aren't even in the same county as the west's military. If it's a sucker move, it may have backfired if NATO doesn't push in to help. 

Observation.

Battle Creek is home to an ANG station as well as Fort Custer. 

The Fort is packed currently and the ANG is running drones overhead at a rate I've never witnessed before. 

It's Thursday. Generally the National Guard is here on Friday. 

In reply to Mndsm :

Igor should do the responsible thing and return any missiles to the Russians one at a time and at high speed.

In reply to bobzilla :

I didn't say the plan was well executed.  And I'm not saying the scenario presented isn't plausible - it definitely is.  But when it comes to war, the more complicated and convoluted the plan, the less likely it is to succeed. And right now there is no evidence to suggest Putin was expecting NATO to come to Ukraine's aid. If anything, he was counting on the opposite. 

Yes, it's hard to believe the Russian army was so ill-prepared.  But the information we currently have supports that theory.

I think they bought their own BS, and were expecting Ukraine to fold immediately.  They really wanted to take the country with as much infrastructure intact as possible.  When that failed, they went to the fallback of blowing everything up.

In reply to Javelin :

Pevchikh makes a good point: the trail of Russian money into the western worlds needs to end. They may say "I'm not an oligarch, I'm just related to one!" But if your using that money to live outside of the oppressive Russian economy and regime, you're part of the problem. 

Rons said:

In reply to Mndsm :

Igor should do the responsible thing and return any missiles to the Russians one at a time and at high speed.

Expedited delivery is the preferred option.