pheller said:In reply to Javelin :
Pevchikh makes a good point: the trail of Russian money into the western worlds needs to end. They may say "I'm not an oligarch, I'm just related to one!" But if your using that money to live outside of the oppressive Russian economy and regime, you're part of the problem.
Just think how much more affordable real estate in some cities would get!
Shock and awe aren't really how Russia's won its big victories (minor wars like Czechoslovakia notwithstanding). They wore out the Germans and French largely by taking horrendous losses till weather and logistics turned in their favor. If that is any indication, Ukraine's in for a long, devastating grind.
My hope is that Russia will say "Let this be a lesson to you", annex Donetsk and Luhansk, declare victory and pull out. I think a more likely scenario is that they will hold onto the Southeast part of the country up to the Dnieper river and create a land bridge of Russian-held territory to the Crimea. The worst scenario short of nuclear war would be if they insist on trying to take the entire country.
What's going to be VERY interesting is how they're going to get back into the good graces of their trading partners not named China.
Remember a couple dozen pages back when I said that Anonymous had a whole range of talent levels?
The big boys are active
pheller said:In reply to Javelin :
Pevchikh makes a good point: the trail of Russian money into the western worlds needs to end. They may say "I'm not an oligarch, I'm just related to one!" But if your using that money to live outside of the oppressive Russian economy and regime, you're part of the problem.
If the oligarchs are siphoning money out of the Russian economy and spending it in other economies, doesn't that weaken the Russian economy? Does the west benefit if the Russian economy is strengthened? I think that if their government is based on thuggish behaviors, I would personally prefer if their mafia-style hierarchy never found the money to buy the nice equipment. I am not an economist, but my gut reaction is "Milk them for everything they've got."
In reply to matthewmcl :
I think we should hope / strive for a Russia that has a big, free, non violent, middle class.
I get your point, that would increase competition with the west, but we'd get 144 million more potential innovators and not be at risk of nuclear war and 99% of Russians would benefit.
In reply to RX Reven' :
I am fine with competition and totally supportive of the idea of good Russian folks being more successful; I just want to try for that AFTER they get a government that is not on the warpath.
I know it's serious and important but it sounds like something from a parody of elementary school politics.
In reply to QuasiMofo (John Brown) :
"sounds like something from a parody of elementary school politics. "
*must...resist...temptation...to...make...political...comment...*
The discussion of using tanks in urban environments (and the vulnerability of tanks to infantry in such environments) had me looking for historical analysis. I found this Army report (link goes to a pdf).
Breaking the Mold: Tanks in the Cities
Of particular interest is Ch. 4, which discusses Russia taking Grozny in Chechnya in 1995. The similarities in preparation, apparent training levels, and ultimate Russian response give interesting potential insight into the current conflict. It is worth noting that while most of the report details difficulty in using Tanks in cities and other urban environments, it does discuss how armor has been used successfully in cities in the past and what approaches were needed. Many of the problems the Russians faced in Grozny seem to be related to "the Russian way of doing things," which does not appear to have changed much, based on reports from the current conflict.
In reply to volvoclearinghouse :
Just an observation on politics in general. I think that requiring an act of congress to reduce the trade rating is kind of silly is all.
In reply to QuasiMofo (John Brown) :
I think that is because trade ratings, trade agreements, and treaties go hand-in-hand and many times are one in the same. Treaties are acts of Congress so that a single person cannot make or dissolve them. Not so much an observation of politics as civics.
Interesting view of Russian propaganda. Not surprising, though.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-tv-news-prison-ukraine-all-but-conquered-Trevor-Reed-2022-3
matthewmcl said:The discussion of using tanks in urban environments (and the vulnerability of tanks to infantry in such environments) had me looking for historical analysis. I found this Army report (link goes to a pdf).
Breaking the Mold: Tanks in the Cities
Of particular interest is Ch. 4, which discusses Russia taking Grozny in Chechnya in 1995. The similarities in preparation, apparent training levels, and ultimate Russian response give interesting potential insight into the current conflict. It is worth noting that while most of the report details difficulty in using Tanks in cities and other urban environments, it does discuss how armor has been used successfully in cities in the past and what approaches were needed. Many of the problems the Russians faced in Grozny seem to be related to "the Russian way of doing things," which does not appear to have changed much, based on reports from the current conflict.
That's a fairly comprehensive document. Can you give a quick summary?
In reply to Beer Baron :
I am still only 2/3 through, myself, but posted because of the Grozny/Kyiv parallels.
The general take is that tanks are tools, not solutions. The warfare that they are primarily designed around is becoming obsolete, but that they can still be used effectively as infantry support. If they are treated as direct fire artillery, that infantry has tagging along and is ready for direct instruction, then they can be a powerful tool to "soften" the buildings that are about to be cleared by the infantry, and to pierce fortified walls. The last bit, WWII era, was artillery and not tanks, but now that tanks have guns the size of artillery...
The "Russian way of doing things" boils down to factions within the Russian government (not quite as prevalent today), poor training, poor equipment upkeep, open communication, poor coordination between units, etc., with the resulting, eventual, approach of "Berk it, we are going to just level the place."
NOHOME said:Why does it look like Russia is sandbagging? Both the soldiers and the weapons so far look like they are all left-overs. We know for a fact that they have more sophisticated missiles that they are not using.
Complexity. Keeping a gen6 fighter jet or modern main battle tank operating takes several hours of maintenance for every 1 hour of combat operation, and I don't think they have the parts, trained maintenance crews, or money to support keeping the good stuff running.
Put in GRM terms, i give you two boxes, one contains a fully disassembled 2020 s-class mercedes, and the other an air cooled vw bug. I tell you you've got 24 hours to assemble it and then drive it across the country, and if you fail, you're in deep E36 M3. The bug is probably going to be the smart choice. There's like three moving parts and it goes together with a hammer and a rock.
In reply to Flynlow (FS) :
Ha, but the trick is that the rock IS the hammer!
It sounds like the corruption that existed during the Soviet days hasn't really gone away. Since nobody's really checking, it's a lot easier to tell the folks up the chainsky that you're meeting all the targets that they've set and that you're doing everything by the book. From what I was reading yesterday it sounded like they were barely paying their soldiers and then making them buy their uniform, ammo, and housing out of that. If you were just barely being paid and could either maintain your equipment or just pocket the money....
In reply to wae :
No, the rock is the chassis jig/work table :)
wae said:It sounds like the corruption that existed during the Soviet days hasn't really gone away.
Another funny aviation story from people buying surplus Yak's.
Well... Yak's aren't the only aircraft the Russians were selling surplus of. A guy decided to buy a former Soviet Mig. Got all the appropriate U.S. forms and import and approval and everything to do so legally here. He went down to the docks where they opened up the crate with the Mig in it...
...to discover that it was fully uploaded with ammunition in the guns and missiles on the hardpoints. Their eyes got big. They crated it back up and started making phone calls.
They were pretty sure that someone in the military was just looking to make a buck, went down to the flight line and just said, "Yeah. Any of these will do. Crate up that one."
RX Reven' said:In reply to matthewmcl :
I think we should hope / strive for a Russia that has a big, free, non violent, middle class....
I would settle for that in NA.
Beer Baron said:wae said:It sounds like the corruption that existed during the Soviet days hasn't really gone away.
Another funny aviation story from people buying surplus Yak's.
Well... Yak's aren't the only aircraft the Russians were selling surplus of. A guy decided to buy a former Soviet Mig. Got all the appropriate U.S. forms and import and approval and everything to do so legally here. He went down to the docks where they opened up the crate with the Mig in it...
...to discover that it was fully uploaded with ammunition in the guns and missiles on the hardpoints. Their eyes got big. They crated it back up and started making phone calls.
They were pretty sure that someone in the military was just looking to make a buck, went down to the flight line and just said, "Yeah. Any of these will do. Crate up that one."
There are a few MIGs parked at the Lancaster Airport south of Dallas. Most of them owned by airline pilots. I think they have their own club. The guy I talked to said he paid less that 20K for his.
Russia working to seize "abandoned" Western Businesses
In reply to John Welsh :
Sounds like a minor (or maybe no) variation to what is described in the Ted talk posted by stroker on page 70:
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:There are a few MIGs parked at the Lancaster Airport south of Dallas. Most of them owned by airline pilots. I think they have their own club. The guy I talked to said he paid less that 20K for his.
When that career colonel looks at the money the government isn't going to pay him any more for his service and dedication, sees a bunch of 'Muricans who think nothing of throwing around what a year's salary would be for him, and has a flight line full of jets no one is keeping inventory of anymore...
John Welsh said:Russia working to seize "abandoned" Western Businesses
Nationalize the businesses. One way to make sure they never ever come back.
Hope Russia is happy with the price of the ruble.
There's a US astronaut on the International Space Station who is due to return to Earth on a Russian spacecraft in a few weeks. The head of Russia's space agency has threatened to leave him behind as well as detaching their segment of the space station altogether. https://abcnews.go.com/International/us-russian-international-space-station-partnership-jeopardy-geopolitical/story?id=83343874
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