irish44j (Forum Supporter) said:
Just for posterity -here's what I think the negotiated solution will be:
- Russia keep Crimea (there would never be a deal otherwise)
- Russia can have Donesk and Luhansk. Let them be a drag on the Russian economy and rid Ukraine of its problem children
- Russia may or may not keep a land bridge to Crimea. While that woudl be a big sticking point, the reality is that a Ukrainian port on the Azov Sea woudl always be threatened with either conquer, blockade, or general pressure from Russia, and it's of limited economic value.
- Some sanctions relief, though I don't thin it will be much initially. Probably on some kind of scale depending on future "good behavior"
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- Ukraine gets back all of the rest of the territories taken so far by Russia
- Ukraine pledges not to join NATO (which wasn't going to happen in the first place), but may still join the EU.
- Ukraine will significantly upgrade its stock of modern (Western) defensivel weapons. Which, incidentally, it was already doing before this all started...quietly. All those Javelins didn't just arrive there when Russia invaded....
ANyhow, that's what I see happening ultimately. Posting for posterity and hope I'm right.
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I tend to agree with all of this. The one issue I'm still wondering about (I brought it up here before hostilities commenced) is the canal east of Kherson that supplies water to Crimea. It was clearly a primary Russian objective, they took it early, and it's vital to the long-term survival of Crimea. If the shooting stopped today, I have no doubt the Russians would have a strong claim to it, but depending on how long it takes to get a cease-fire, and where the situation on the ground is at that point, I do wonder if the Ukrainians will push to control it. If the land bridge remains in Russian hands it's less of a long-term issue, as they can construct another canal or pipeline or whatever, but if that goes the existing canal remains critical. This is the sort of detail that can drag negotiations out for weeks.
If the West wants to maintain the moral high ground and keep up the pressure on Putin, they will lift sanctions on things that hurt ordinary Russians quickly (mostly currency-related stuff), while maintaining those on the government and individuals connected to Putin. Tricky business to make things easier for the average Russian while still being effective in hurting the state, and hard to explain to the average Westerner. The alternative, I suppose, is to just keep squeezing, but Putin's going to demand something in exchange for calling off the attack, so something's going to have to give.