volvoclearinghouse said:Apparently this was on Russia's main "news" program the other day.
Unfortunately she didn't make it out of the country fast enough after this:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/15/media/russia-tv-protester-marina-ovsyannikova/index.html
In reply to californiamilleghia :
Speaking of ports and the Black Sea, Turkey controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits and right now has closed them to the Russian fleet. Just how would they and how capable are the Turks at keeping those war ships from using it?
VolvoHeretic said:In reply to californiamilleghia :
Speaking of ports and the Black Sea, Turkey controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits and right now has closed them to the Russian fleet. Just how would they and how capable are the Turks at keeping those war ships from using it?
I envision no circumstance short of general war where Russia would consider an opposed transit of the straits. They are very narrow bodies of water, with no room for maneuver. Currents are treacherous and shifting. Land-based systems, even MBTs and ATGMs, could be employed against any ships. If the Russians somehow made it through the Bosporus intact, they then risk being trapped in the Sea of Marmara if they cannot get through the Dardanelles. And since Turkey is a NATO member, and this is clearly either happening during a war or starting one, you can bet on a US or UK fast attack boat sitting in the Aegean just waiting for any Russian ships that survive to emerge from the Dardanelles into open sea.
In reply to 02Pilot :
"And since Turkey is a NATO member, and this is clearly either happening during a war or starting one, you can bet on a US or UK fast attack boat sitting in the Aegean just waiting for any Russian ships that survive to emerge from the Dardanelles into open sea"
Thanks, and by "Open Sea", you mean that other bottle neck, the Mediterranean Sea? Too bad we don't still have the Missouri and New Jersey in service, we could steam one in the Black Sea and one in the China Sea so that when those pesky Russkies and Chinese try to ram us, they could try it with those old battleships. 
VolvoHeretic said:In reply to 02Pilot :
Too bad we still don't have the Missouri and New Jersey in service, we could steam one in the Black Sea and the China Sea so that when those pesky Russkies and Chinese try to ram us, they could try it with those old battleships.
Those boats would be hopelessly outclassed in a modern naval engagement before their guns are even in range of the enemy. Well, at least with a peer state whose missiles aren't malfunctioning.
In reply to VolvoHeretic :
Too bad we never made precision guided shells for those 16" guns...
Some tidbits:
- Putin has been firing / replacing generals (for disappointing the Furer)
- Officers may not be getting paid.
- With tanks and APC heavily neutralized by ATM's and drones, that leaves infantry. It looks like, with reserves and those pouring into Ukraine, the Ukrainians should have a numerical advantage in terms of infantry! The artillery is still of course a concern.
- Russia is very short of PGM's (precision guided munitions). The cruise missile attack on the western military base may have even been a "launch em all and make it look like we have plenty" attack.
The attack on Odessa is likely not only an original goal, but probably an attempt to get any sort of win. The Russian marines are definitely at a higher level than the army. One wonders what nice surprises the Ukrainians have for them.
Lol, I just meant when they keep playing chicken with our destroyers and we have to take evasive action to not ram them. Plus, at least one of them was decked out with a slug of cruise missiles. Aren't they stealth ones nowadays?
Ukraine now developing nuclear arms with US help, Russia claims
US advisors in Ukraine are helping Kyiv develop biological and nuclear weapons, potentially raising the risk of nuclear war, the Russian Security Council secretary was quote as saying.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-701359
Setting the stage for a false flag either in Ukraine or Belarus?
A Moscow court fined the Channel One editor Marina Ovsyannikova 30,000 rubles (about $293) on Tuesday after she broke into the news studio during an evening news show the day before. She also published a pre-recorded message on social media, in which she called to stage anti-war protests.
On Monday, Ovsyannikova ran behind the news anchor holding a poster with anti-war slogans and calls not to trust “propaganda.”
“Ovsyannikova was found guilty of committing an administrative offense under Part 2 of Article 20.2 of the Code of Administrative Offenses of the Russian Federation (organizing or holding a public event without filing a notice of a public event in the appropriate way),” said Kristina Yavkina, Ostankino court’s spokeswoman, as quoted by the Russian media.
https://www.rt.com/russia/552018-tv-editor-fined-protest/ (RT, so.....)
I wonder if they have started writing the article about how she committed suicide by shooting herself in the back of the head twice then throwing herself out a window.
The hospital in Mariupol has been taken over, the staff held hostage, and are firing on Ukrainian positions trying to get them to fire on the hospital. They are reportedly Chechen's in Russian uniforms.
https://nypost.com/2022/03/15/ukrainians-accuse-russians-of-holding-hostages-in-mariupol-hospital/
In reply to fastoldfart :
Or just doing what the US did with Iraq and saying a country has WMDs to justify to the population back home.
In reply to 93EXCivic :
Dude. Please don't patio this.
02Pilot said:irish44j (Forum Supporter) said:Just for posterity -here's what I think the negotiated solution will be:
- Russia keep Crimea (there would never be a deal otherwise)
- Russia can have Donesk and Luhansk. Let them be a drag on the Russian economy and rid Ukraine of its problem children
- Russia may or may not keep a land bridge to Crimea. While that woudl be a big sticking point, the reality is that a Ukrainian port on the Azov Sea woudl always be threatened with either conquer, blockade, or general pressure from Russia, and it's of limited economic value.
- Some sanctions relief, though I don't thin it will be much initially. Probably on some kind of scale depending on future "good behavior"
---
- Ukraine gets back all of the rest of the territories taken so far by Russia
- Ukraine pledges not to join NATO (which wasn't going to happen in the first place), but may still join the EU.
- Ukraine will significantly upgrade its stock of modern (Western) defensivel weapons. Which, incidentally, it was already doing before this all started...quietly. All those Javelins didn't just arrive there when Russia invaded....
ANyhow, that's what I see happening ultimately. Posting for posterity and hope I'm right.
-
I tend to agree with all of this. The one issue I'm still wondering about (I brought it up here before hostilities commenced) is the canal east of Kherson that supplies water to Crimea. It was clearly a primary Russian objective, they took it early, and it's vital to the long-term survival of Crimea. If the shooting stopped today, I have no doubt the Russians would have a strong claim to it, but depending on how long it takes to get a cease-fire, and where the situation on the ground is at that point, I do wonder if the Ukrainians will push to control it.
Interesting, I wasn't aware of that aspect of things.
californiamilleghia said:irish44j (Forum Supporter) said:Just for posterity -here's what I think the negotiated solution will be:
- Russia keep Crimea (there would never be a deal otherwise)
- Russia can have Donesk and Luhansk. Let them be a drag on the Russian economy and rid Ukraine of its problem children
- Russia may or may not keep a land bridge to Crimea. While that woudl be a big sticking point, the reality is that a Ukrainian port on the Azov Sea woudl always be threatened with either conquer, blockade, or general pressure from Russia, and it's of limited economic value.
- Some sanctions relief, though I don't thin it will be much initially. Probably on some kind of scale depending on future "good behavior"
---
- Ukraine gets back all of the rest of the territories taken so far by Russia
- Ukraine pledges not to join NATO (which wasn't going to happen in the first place), but may still join the EU.
- Ukraine will significantly upgrade its stock of modern (Western) defensivel weapons. Which, incidentally, it was already doing before this all started...quietly. All those Javelins didn't just arrive there when Russia invaded....
ANyhow, that's what I see happening ultimately. Posting for posterity and hope I'm right.
-
I hope you are right , there is some give and take , plus Russia gets the port that it wants and really needs
I wouldn't say they "need" it. Russia already has Sevastopol in Crimea (and always has, even when Crimea was Ukraine, as part of a post-USSR agreement). It's where the Black Sea Fleet is located and always has been. Before the Crimea invasion, the Ukranian Navy also lived there (and was almost entirely captured sitting in port by the Russian Navy a few piers away.....talk about a lousy arrangement!)
Sevastopol is inifinitely more important than having a port on the Azov, IMO. But who knows what Putin's actual goal is.
VolvoHeretic said:In reply to californiamilleghia :
Speaking of ports and the Black Sea, Turkey controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits and right now has closed them to the Russian fleet. Just how would they and how capable are the Turks at keeping those war ships from using it?
Closed to Russian ships that aren't based in the Black Sea. i.e. ships coming down from the Northern Fleet are not allowed in. However, Black Sea Fleet ships can still transit the straits, per the Montreaux Treaty. However, the Black Sea Fleet is very large and Russia has no need for additional ships at this point, wiht no naval threat from Ukraine. Several landing ships from other fleets alread arrived there weeks before the invasion anyhow.
Turkey could definitely close the straits to warship transit in a military sense. Turkey has a strong navy and a ton of coastal defense missiles (and a much stronger and more modern military than Ukraine, incidentally).Even the Russians wouldn't be stupid enough to try it.
In reply to irish44j (Forum Supporter) :
Thanks. Yes, I read that Russia was sending ships into the Black Sea. They only have so much fleet and now it seems, they have a substantial number stacked up in the Black Sea. Are they stuck there? And yes, Turkey did close the straights.
Zelensky's statement today. Seems he is resigned to Ukraine remaining outside NATO:
"We have heard for years that the doors were open, but we also heard that we could not join. It's a truth and it must be recognized. I am glad that our people are beginning to understand this and rely on themselves and our partners who help us."
He also suggested that the Russian negotiators were becoming "more realistic".
02Pilot said:Zelensky's statement today. Seems he is resigned to Ukraine remaining outside NATO:
"We have heard for years that the doors were open, but we also heard that we could not join. It's a truth and it must be recognized. I am glad that our people are beginning to understand this and rely on themselves and our partners who help us."
He also suggested that the Russian negotiators were becoming "more realistic".
It's a good move. Give Putin a "win" even though all sides know that Ukraine wasn't going to join NATO any time soon in the first place. But saying this takes lets Putin pretend that he "stopped Ukraine from joining NATO.." Status quo ante bellum.
I just hope that if there ever winds up being a sudden end to this craziness, we don't just let PoonTang off of the hook. There is no room in the New World Order for Hitler or Mussolini wannabes trying to dominate or kill millions. Any end to this madness has to include his removal (preferably by guillotine by his own people).
I like how the world is trying to white wash history, using Autocracy instead of the good old true meaning, Dictators.
In reply to VolvoHeretic :
I agree with your sentiment, strongly.
However, the world is going to move on from this as soon as they can get the money machines hooked back up, figuratively speaking. Look at Burma, we threw some sanctions at the wall and pretty much called it a day. Yemen? Kept selling those nice Sauds more of whatever they want. Ethiopia? (Correct me if I'm wrong on the country, it's late ans my brain is half toast) I'm pretty sure we're just letting the UN 'handle' that like all of Africa. Venezuela? Well, let's not talk about our history with southern neighbors. As for Europe, they need that sweet Russian energy and I don't think Russia is beyond swinging their stick around in the former Bloc to stir up trouble, not if they're willing to poison dissidents on British soil.
The only people that are going to hold Russia accountable are Ukraine and the Russian people and I don't hold out much hope for either of those groups wielding any power against the Russian state. We watched Crimea, Georgia, Chechnya, and Syria happen and we're going to watch Ukraine. There will be some tough talking for the cameras, some stern finger wagging, and then the world will move on, happy for any economic shift in bleeding Russia a bit.
Pollute the meaning of a word and you distort it's use in history, control history and things kinda lose their meaning and you can really start doing what you want. Not that this is anything new but the internet makes it more obvious and more pervasive.
In reply to Error404 :
Thanks, I agree 100%. I grew up pre internet during the Vietnam war when if you wanted to know something, you had to go to the Library and look it up. My draft lottery number was 17 two years after the war ended and one year after the draft ended. I was learning Canadian up till then and lived only 90 miles from the boarder. Ay?
Speaking of putin, Ex-Black Ops Agent: This Is How Putin Could Meet His End
VolvoHeretic said:I just hope that if there ever winds up being a sudden end to this craziness, we don't just let PoonTang off of the hook. There is no room in the New World Order for Hitler or Mussolini wannabes trying to dominate or kill millions. Any end to this madness has to include his removal (preferably by guillotine by his own people).
That's probably not going to be our call. That's going to be on the other powers that be in Russia. Hitler and Mussolini were ultimately terrible for their countries. Many high ranking Germans *really* wanted to get rid of Hitler.
I suspect he's going to get a golden boot out the door. Power backers in Russia don't want him destabilizing things and will "convince" him to "retire". He'll probably live comfortably but be forced into quiet obscurity.
I like how the world is trying to white wash history, using Autocracy instead of the good old true meaning, Dictators.
All ducks are birds, but not all birds are ducks. All dictatorships are Autocracies.
China is an autocracy. The Soviety Union was an autocracy. Even under Stalin, I don't think it was *quite* a dictatorship the way that say, Cambodia was under Pol Pot.
Current Russia is an autocracy. I'm not sure how total Putin's power is, or if he's just the conductor of a broader regime.
Some days, I really, really wish Tom Clancy was still around...
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