History in the Making: Russian Invasion

i keep hearing "four legs good, two legs better!" in Pootin's speeches.

I cam across this video recently. It is a couple of weeks old (amazing how that has become a significant amount of time), but it is still an interesting discussion of Russia not so much as a paper tiger, but as a military built for different purposes than what the current task is. The presenter is not someone deep (or even shallow) in international military analysis, but the logic seems to be pretty sound, and the observations make sense to me (also, not even shallow in international military analysis). The video is lengthy, but also easy to get through.

eastsideTim said:

I've heard it said, but have not been able to confirm, that the Chinese internal news/propaganda has already started to pivot away from supporting Russia, and may even be showing scenes of the destruction in Ukraine.  While, if true, I am sure it is a self serving move by Chinese leadership, it does speak to how isolated Russia may be getting if the world's biggest autocracy is willing to turn their back on them.

Looks to be sort of a position of ambivalence.  Still sh%ting on the US at every opportunity of course.  Please note the contrast of how the US is portrayed in Chinese news, and how China is portrayed in US news.  It's a bit like US foreign policy: 

"Yes, nice to meet you how are you friend"
"F you, you dirty corrupter of society who are destroying the world"
"Ah yes, we should speak about how we can cooperate on all these things"
"F' you, you get what we allow you to have until we decide to crush you with our might!"
"OK, then, lets get started"

Of Note:  Global Times is very much a Chinese government controlled propaganda publication.  Do not click links if you work for any government organization!

Beijing's current policies toward Russia and the US have high support among the people

Chinese people think that more vicious US practices will come sooner or later, so they support the government’s insistence on independence – neither being tied to Russia nor deceived by the US.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1255046.shtml

China-Russia relations the most important strategic asset that cannot be damaged by US provocation

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1255251.shtml

Xi urges US, NATO to talk with Russia, opposes indiscriminate sanctions

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1255263.shtml

codrus (Forum Supporter) said:

tuna55 said:

No Time said:

"Self purification " does not sound like a good thing for the Russian people. 

I know it's cliche to compare people to Nazis, but that's Nazism

Stalin was purging people before Hitler ever came to power.

 

And until long after.  

spitfirebill said:

codrus (Forum Supporter) said:

tuna55 said:

No Time said:

"Self purification " does not sound like a good thing for the Russian people. 

I know it's cliche to compare people to Nazis, but that's Nazism

Stalin was purging people before Hitler ever came to power.

 

And until long after.  

Yes, and Mao outdid Hitler and Stalin...

I think Mao was a bit more "starve from mis-management" then "purge" though.

 (If you are thinking about the big number)

Streetwiseguy said:

I'm starting to think the real problems are going to show up on Russia's eastern front, after showing the Chinese just how over-hyped their military has been proven to be in Ukraine.  "Whats that? Millions of Hectares of trees and minerals and oil and such?  Thanks, we'll just have that."

One thing that you don't often hear is that nuclear deterence has probably saved many millions of lives since 1945. USA and Russia simply will not have that cage match if there's a 10000 lb anvil hanging over each of their heads. The same holds true of China and Russia. Also, I think that Chinas figured out what Germany and Japan did some time ago, and that's if your economic machine is finely tuned, it's a much safer and predictable route to power than using ones military. (Edit: It's a shame that Germany and Japan didn't figure that out much earlier. They were still stuck in an imperial mindset that required conquest and control, whereas the industrial juggernauts that built all those weapons could just as easily been used to  carpet the world with consumer goods and such)

Regarding the video above (it's audio with slide, so you can just listen if you like):

Very good point about where Russia has spend money. Basically they have spend a huge amount on nuclear, ships and small numbers of super modern equipment that have no use in this conflict.  Compared to Ukraine, who can concentrate on only defensive armaments. 

It's kind of like if you train to fight any possible opponent or fighting style and the guy you are fighting has trained to fight only you.

On a similar but not relevant subject: I was listening to someone who pointed out a similar thing and the fact that the cold war Soviet army had a lot of bridging equipment.  Bridging equipment is of little use in a defensive fight.  It's primarily for getting across rivers who bridges have been blown defensively.  Interesting thought.

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

Streetwiseguy said:

I'm starting to think the real problems are going to show up on Russia's eastern front, after showing the Chinese just how over-hyped their military has been proven to be in Ukraine.  "Whats that? Millions of Hectares of trees and minerals and oil and such?  Thanks, we'll just have that."

One thing that you don't often hear is that nuclear deterence has probably saved many millions of lives since 1945. USA and Russia simply will not have that cage match if there's a 10000 lb anvil hanging over each of their heads. The same holds true of China and Russia. Also, I think that Chinas figured out what Germany and Japan did some time ago, and that's if your economic machine is finely tuned, it's a much safer and predictable route to power than using ones military. (Edit: It's a shame that Germany and Japan didn't figure that out much earlier. They were still stuck in an imperial mindset that required conquest and control, whereas the industrial juggernauts that built all those weapons could just as easily been used to  carpet the world with consumer goods and such)

I haven't followed this thread to solidly, but was wondering whether anybody had mentioned good old Mutually Ensured Destruction, and was hoping that Putin was familiar with the concept.

Streetwiseguy said:

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

Streetwiseguy said:

I'm starting to think the real problems are going to show up on Russia's eastern front, after showing the Chinese just how over-hyped their military has been proven to be in Ukraine.  "Whats that? Millions of Hectares of trees and minerals and oil and such?  Thanks, we'll just have that."

One thing that you don't often hear is that nuclear deterence has probably saved many millions of lives since 1945. USA and Russia simply will not have that cage match if there's a 10000 lb anvil hanging over each of their heads. The same holds true of China and Russia. Also, I think that Chinas figured out what Germany and Japan did some time ago, and that's if your economic machine is finely tuned, it's a much safer and predictable route to power than using ones military. (Edit: It's a shame that Germany and Japan didn't figure that out much earlier. They were still stuck in an imperial mindset that required conquest and control, whereas the industrial juggernauts that built all those weapons could just as easily been used to  carpet the world with consumer goods and such)

I haven't followed this thread to solidly, but was wondering whether anybody had mentioned good old Mutually Ensured Destruction, and was hoping that Putin was familiar with the concept.

Yes, MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) has been mentioned quite a bit. 

Streetwiseguy said:

I'm starting to think the real problems are going to show up on Russia's eastern front, after showing the Chinese just how over-hyped their military has been proven to be in Ukraine.  "Whats that? Millions of Hectares of trees and minerals and oil and such?  Thanks, we'll just have that."

I worry that this whole thing is encouraging China's ideas about Taiwan.  They sent a ship close by there today, and I've read some opinions that they may be ramping up to finally do an invasion later this year.

In reply to stuart in mn :

Or it could have the opposite effect. Putin sounded like Cheney, telling the world that we'd be greeted as liberators in Iraq. It's entirely possible that Xi Jinping is looking at Russia getting slapped around and going, "Hmmm maybe we should stay out of that kind of trouble". 

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

...an imperial mindset that required conquest and control, whereas the industrial juggernauts that built all those weapons could just as easily been used to  carpet the world with consumer goods and such

Germany and Japan have certainly figured that out.  Russia apparently either has not or is incapable of pursuing the same path.

DarkMonohue said:

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

...an imperial mindset that required conquest and control, whereas the industrial juggernauts that built all those weapons could just as easily been used to  carpet the world with consumer goods and such

Germany and Japan have certainly figured that out.  Russia apparently either has not or is incapable of pursuing the same path.

IMO countries primarily go to war for one or both of two reasons: fear and greed. Western Europe is primarily secure and prosperous, and those are the countries least likely to start trouble. Russia is both afraid and greedy, thus you have their aggression towards Ukraine. United states is always getting into a measure of trouble and while it's somewhat about greed, it's more about fear. We've been on top of the hill for some time now, we know we've got some deep seated problems, and we're afraid of falling from our lofty perch. Thus we engage in proxy wars and occupations as well as assorted drone wars, sanctions and other forms of conflict. 

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

IMO countries primarily go to war for one or both of two reasons: fear and greed. Western Europe is primarily secure and prosperous, and those are the countries least likely to start trouble. Russia is both afraid and greedy, thus you have their aggression towards Ukraine. United states is always getting into a measure of trouble and while it's somewhat about greed, it's even more about fear. We've been on top of the hill for some time now, we know we've got some deep seated problems, and we're afraid of falling from our lofty perch. Thus we engage in proxy wars and occupations as well as assorted drone wars, sanctions and other forms of conflict. 

I don't know enough about either geopolitics or history to disagree with you in an intelligent manner, but I know too much to disagree out of raw ignorance.

I'd love to see Putin being told this news!

Three Russian cosmonauts wear colours of Ukrainian flag as they arrive on space station

The Russian team arrived aboard the International Space Station after launching from Kazakhstan and were wearing space suits of yellow and blue- the colours of Ukraine

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-three-russian-cosmonauts-wear-26505649

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

There are a lot of theories about why states initiate wars. Many of them involve fear and/or greed, but they disagree on what exactly underlies those motives. Fear of a rising power? Fear of a different system? Fear of domestic upheaval? Fear of resource shortages? The lists go on and on.

My view tends (unsurprisingly, for those who have been following along here) toward the realist position of seeing states as either those that wish to maintain the status quo, and those that wish to alter it. Most in the latter category are largely unable to do so, but for those that are strong enough, there is the potential for action. Status quo powers tend to remain peaceful until meaningfully challenged by one or more rising powers, at which point they will defend their position. This means that war is often an unintentional product of what is known as the Thucydides Trap, from the interaction between Athens and Sparta in the Peloponnesian War described by the namesake author. There is extensive literature on this.

That said, this approach really only works for global or regional power structures, with great powers and/or regional hegemons. The situation in Ukraine doesn't easily fit the model. It seems more a case of a large power seeking to shape its immediate environment to improve its security; that means it is a war of choice. This is always heavily dependent on the views and objectives of the large state's leadership, but there have been many more conflicts that fit this situation.

02Pilot said:

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

There are a lot of theories about why states initiate wars. Many of them involve fear and/or greed, but they disagree on what exactly underlies those motives. Fear of a rising power? Fear of a different system? Fear of domestic upheaval? Fear of resource shortages? The lists go on and on.

My view tends (unsurprisingly, for those who have been following along here) toward the realist position of seeing states as either those that wish to maintain the status quo, and those that wish to alter it. Most in the latter category are largely unable to do so, but for those that are strong enough, there is the potential for action. Status quo powers tend to remain peaceful until meaningfully challenged by one or more rising powers, at which point they will defend their position. This means that war is often an unintentional product of what is known as the Thucydides Trap, from the interaction between Athens and Sparta in the Peloponnesian War described by the namesake author. There is extensive literature on this.

That said, this approach really only works for global or regional power structures, with great powers and/or regional hegemons. The situation in Ukraine doesn't easily fit the model. It seems more a case of a large power seeking to shape its immediate environment to improve its security; that means it is a war of choice. This is always heavily dependent on the views and objectives of the large state's leadership, but there have been many more conflicts that fit this situation.

Excellent response.

We'll get you a seat on the NSC yet!

... in a future Administration.

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to stuart in mn :

Or it could have the opposite effect. Putin sounded like Cheney, telling the world that we'd be greeted as liberators in Iraq. It's entirely possible that Xi Jinping is looking at Russia getting slapped around and going, "Hmmm maybe we should stay out of that kind of trouble". 

Yeah, I think china's massive property development debt problems would not handle a 1000x currency devaluation very well.

Honestly I'm surprised Russia can handle it for a few weeks even. It seems to me that something like that should bring any country's financial systems to it's knees in minutes.

Unless - Russia is holding all the Bitcoin. 

fastoldfart said:

I'd love to see Putin being told this news!

Three Russian cosmonauts wear colours of Ukrainian flag as they arrive on space station

The Russian team arrived aboard the International Space Station after launching from Kazakhstan and were wearing space suits of yellow and blue- the colours of Ukraine

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-three-russian-cosmonauts-wear-26505649

Heard some commentary from the cosmonauts.  They simply had so much yellow space suit material they felt they had to use it versus letting it go to waste.  Fantastic!

fastoldfart said:

I'd love to see Putin being told this news!

Three Russian cosmonauts wear colours of Ukrainian flag as they arrive on space station

The Russian team arrived aboard the International Space Station after launching from Kazakhstan and were wearing space suits of yellow and blue- the colours of Ukraine

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-three-russian-cosmonauts-wear-26505649

They just didn't want to get spaced. 

fastoldfart said:

I'd love to see Putin being told this news!

Not like Putin is actually going to quote Cracker, but random song lyric association

 Hey don't you wanna go down
Like some junky cosmonaut
A million miles below their feet
A million miles, a million miles

One thing that I've been thinking about is how, with all the devastation wrought by the Russians, whoever helps Ukraine rebuild will shape future political sympathies and alliances. If the Russians pull out and money + construction companies come in from Western Europe, economic and social ties will be created and reinforced. Russia continues to paint itself into a corner.

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

There is a statue of President Clinton in Kosovo...

For certain, the huge outpouring of support from the "decadent West" in general and the EU in particular,  not just in materiel terms but also humanitarian aid both in-country and for refugees, is not going to be forgotten anytime soon.

There is talking the talk and then there is walking the walk.

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

...For certain, the huge outpouring of support from the "decadent West" in general and the EU in particular,  not just in materiel terms but also humanitarian aid both in-country and for refugees, is not going to be forgotten anytime soon...

Some may also not forget that we stood back and watched their families being murdered because we feared the small mans big talk.