If Ukraine could walk away from this with only losing Donbass, some lives and a bunch of wrecked real estate, it's a win. I hope that their leaders can see it as such and that they don't let their ego and lust for vengeance get in their way.
I think back to the Finnish Winter war of 1939. Russia similarly got surprised by a scrappy bunch of defenders, and history has painted it as a win, despite the fact that Russia grabbed a small portion of Finnish territory.
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
Even if that was the 'end'- what's the likelihood that there would be some fighters forcing the ruskies out? The BS that started this war is pretty clear, and the strength of mother russia is also pretty clear.
Besides, from what I can tell, the real grab is the oil in the black sea- and that would hand it all to vladdy.
alfadriver said:In reply to NOHOME :
Not only the satellites, I'm betting that NATO is flying AWAC planes in their own territory and sending that info to Ukraine troops so that they are not exposing their anti-aircraft radar systems.
Bringing this back, for anyone interested you can track any Military aircraft that wants to be tracked here - globe.adsbexchange.com/
If there is no menu on the left to turn on the military filter click on the blue arrow in the top left of the window and that will show the filter options. Lots of activity during the days over Europe and pretty interesting to see what is in the air and wants to be seen.
That shirt is awesome Dave!
alfadriver said:In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
Even if that was the 'end'- what's the likelihood that there would be some fighters forcing the ruskies out? The BS that started this war is pretty clear, and the strength of mother russia is also pretty clear.
Besides, from what I can tell, the real grab is the oil in the black sea- and that would hand it all to vladdy.
Odessa and Southern Ukraine are not even remotely part of the Donbas, not even in Russia's warped view. Nor, for that matter, is the southern half of Ukraine's Azov Sea coastline. Unfortunately, Mariupol IS in the Donbas, and it's arguably Urkaine's most important port economically (moreso than odessa). That said, the Azov ports will always be subject to Russian influence since they control the strait that exits to the Black Sea.
In any case, Ukraine *may* have to give up Mariupol and perhaps even Berdyansk on the Azov if it comes down to it, but certainly isn't going to cede Odessa or the southern Coast/ Kherson, and that's the coastline that determines their maritime EEZ claim in the Black Sea.
Some tidbits (these are all very recent):
Ukraine's national internet provider Ukrtelecom has confirmed a cyberattack on its core infrastructure. Real-time network data show an ongoing and intensifying nation-scale disruption to service, which is the most severe registered since the invasion by Russia
So, why now? What are they trying to keep from getting out?
Security Service of Ukraine says it has shutdown 5 enemy bot farms with a capacity of over 100,000 fake accounts They operated in Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Ternopil, Poltava, and Zakarpattia Oblast, the accounts were registered on various social media, SBU says
So, you might notice a different tone to places like Facebook and Reddit...
Ukrainian military shotdown Russian cruise missile near Mykolaiv yesterday
You ain't shootin down a cruise missile with a Stinger very easily (I am not sure it's even reasonably possible), so, as pretty obvious already, there are clearly longer range systems in operation.
Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich
(Russia): Me?! Why is everyone looking at me?!
Of note, despite the first stage of Russians murder tour is concluded, they are...
...staging an attempt to push south around Kyiv and in from the East again (where they have been pushed back by the Ukrainians. Seems like the Ukrainians are holding(?)
You can see the attacks south west of Kyiv here (zoomed in on Kyiv). I would guess an attempt to cut the main resupply road.
Keep seeing stuff about Ukraine counterattacks. All i see is small villages that have been razed to the point where there is nothing left to contest so the Russians left.
Russia is quite comfortable killing millions of civilians and destroying entire nations infrastructure. They did it once before with famine, and now have bombs to speed things up. Time is on Russia's side and they know the West will hit a new news cycle sooner or later that will release the pressure. Like the Oscars.
So I don't see any kind of a real win for Ukraine. But what I also do not see is the long game for Russia where they wont be just another hermit kingdom like North Korea? Being cut out of the modern tech loop is not something you can catch up on later. Short of China declaring a strong partnership with Russia to take over the world, I don't see where Russia has a long term win.
A good example is the airliners that they have confiscated..Great they have 500 planes that they can fly for free for a few months. Then what? Those planes are junk when the current certifications run out and even when the war is over nobody is going to lease them planes.
In reply to NOHOME :
NATO isn't going to sign off on Ukraine, the threat to Russia was the consideration of joining NATO. So by invading them Ukraine is now going to remain neutral, Russia will leave the territory and the west is going to rebuild Ukraine. Russia will remain under china's wing until everybody forgets and a new US presidency enters the next cycle and back to status qou of Germany building the pipeline and US buying oil from Russia. Unfortnatnly money makes people forget quickly.
trigun7469 said:In reply to NOHOME :
NATO isn't going to sign off on Ukraine, the threat to Russia was the consideration of joining NATO. So by invading them Ukraine is now going to remain neutral, Russia will leave the territory and the west is going to rebuild Ukraine. Russia will remain under china's wing until everybody forgets and a new US presidency enters the next cycle and back to status qou of Germany building the pipeline and US buying oil from Russia. Unfortnatnly money makes people forget quickly.
That's awfully cynical. Probably why I 100% agree.
VolvoHeretic said:I sure hope all of you guys are right and I am wrong.
Hopefully Vlad the impaler isn't insane.
The way they're trying to move the goalposts in reverse suggests he is indeed rational and calculating... just calculating based on information that's only slightly more true than the official Russian news. Chances are his inner circle is scared to bring him news that isn't sunshine and roses. And they definitely aren't going to tell him, "That zillion rubles we'd budgeted to get some new Michelin tires for the army trucks? I bought some Chinese knock-offs and went yacht shopping."
Apparently someone "I'm sure it was the Nazis" /Sarcasm poisoned both sides of the negotiators.
This is covered everywhere but all but this one were behind a paywall.
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SOURCES SAY ZELENSKY, WHO MET WITH ABRAMOVICH, NOT AFFECTED
Abramovich, Ukrainian peace negotiators suffer suspected poisoning in Kyiv
Israeli-Russian billionaire’s symptoms included painful, tearing eyes, skin peeling from face, hands; ‘he lost his sight for hours’; Moscow hardliners opposed to peace talks blamed
By TOI STAFFToday, 7:53 pm
Russian businessman Roman Abramovich looks on, as he follows Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's press conference after Russia was announced being the host for the 2018 soccer World Cup in Zurich, Switzerland, December 2, 2010. (AP/Anja Niedringhaus)
Russian-Israeli Oligarch Roman Abramovich suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning after a peace talk meeting earlier this month in Kyiv, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
Ukrainian peace negotiators who participated in the meeting also suffered the same symptoms, according to the report, which cited people familiar with the developments.
A spokesman for Abramovich confirmed the report to the BBC.
The WSJ sources blamed the suspected attack on hardliners in Moscow who oppose talks to stop the conflict that has raged since Russia invading its neighbor last month.
Abramovich and at least two senior members of the Ukrainian negotiating team developed symptoms of constant, painful tearing, as well as red eyes and skin peeling on their faces and hands. Their conditions have since improved and there was not thought to be a danger to their lives, the sources said.
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A Guardian reporter, Shaun Walker, quoted a source confirming the report, and said the source added that “Roman lost his sight for several hours” and was treated in Turkey.
Another of those who suffered the symptoms was Rustem Umerov, a Crimean Tatar lawmaker.
A source close to Abramovich said it is not clear who carried out the alleged poisoning.
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Western experts who probed the incident said it is hard to verify if the symptoms were caused by a chemical or biological agent, or even possibly an electromagnetic-radiation attack, according to sources.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who also met with Abramovich, has not been affected, the sources said. A spokesperson for Zelensky said he had no information about any poisoning, according to the report.
In this image from video provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks from Kyiv, Ukraine, early on March 20, 2022. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)
Abramovich has been one of the only oligarchs who has spoken out publicly about his efforts to push Moscow to reach a peaceful resolution.
He has shuttled between Moscow and Kyiv, as well as “other negotiating locations,” the WSJ reported.
Last week, the paper reported that Zelensky asked Washington to not put sanctions on Abramovich, as Europe did to him and other oligarchs, telling US President Joe Biden that he hoped the Israeli-Russian billionaire would be able to help mediate between Kyiv and Moscow.
But unnamed US officials told the Journal that they are not convinced Abramovich has been helpful in the talks between Russia and Ukraine, and intelligence assessments drew the same conclusion.
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Earlier this month, Abramovich was spotted at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv before his private plane took him to Moscow via Istanbul.
File – In this Dec. 2, 2010 file photo, then Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, right, congratulates members of the Russian delegation, from left: conductor Valery Gergiyev, businessman Roman Abramovich and Nizhny Novgorod governor Valery Shantsev; after it was announced that Russia would host the 2018 soccer World Cup, in Zurich, Switzerland. (AP Photo/Alexei Nikolsky, Pool)
Israel is also involved in negotiations efforts and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has spoken several times with Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Bennett also made a lightning trip to Moscow to speak directly with Putin.
Last week, the UK’s Financial Times newspaper reported that Putin personally approved Abramovich’s involvement in the peace efforts. However, an official for Bennett told the paper that Abramovich did not play a part in bringing Israel into the process.
Conventional Wisdom here seems to be Russia walks away from this with no change... If they quit right now and accept antebellum borders with reparations they might. As soon as Vlad's actions start killing people around the globe due to economic loss/famine/hardship I'm thinking that goes out the window. People are going to be pissed this guy is so cavalierly threatening the lives of millions for a naked land grab. For example, Peter Zeihan sent a newsletter this morning claiming that between them, Russia and Ukraine supply slightly more than half of the worlds' pig iron. If the sanctions hold that's going to be one hell of a lot of unemployed Russians (to say nothing of all the steel workers in the world). I think Vlad's a whole bunch closer to slipping and falling in a bathtub of bullets than most people think...
Not sure about that. It really seems very unlikely Put Put will walk away with NO gains. At least gains he can claim (that may be nothing in reality) in Russia. At this point I think he "might" be able to claim:
- Got rid of all the Nazi's(!) (as well as all the elves! Orc hate elves)
- Destroyed a lot of Ukrainians military infrastructure (in reality, probably very temporarily, not sure how much is actually destroyed really)
- Got revenge for genocide of Russians and taught them a lesson not to do that again! (lest I smash my face into your fist again!)
The current situation, despite claims of finishing "phase 1" to the internal Russia crowd, seems to pretty much exactly the same as they have been doing. I suspect the push to Odessa is very light at this point though.
I am also curious, if he gets his troops (not going to happen, just a thought exercise) to take Ukrainian children and crucify them, then light them on fire for the camera. What exactly would the "world" do? I suspect there is a very good chance that answer is: almost nothing. The starving of people around the globe only strengthens his position the way I see it.
They targeted a church with "children" written in Russian, big enough to see for the air, for F sake! The next time the US kills people in an airstrike, they should keep this in mind to remember what real terror bombing is. Who knows what horror stories await in time (assuming they can't be buried by the Russians).
I agree though, the "bullet" solution almost seems like the most likely at this point. I have no idea how long it will take though. Put Put is VERY aware of those possibilities. He is quite good at it himself.
I'm going to go on record as saying that the Western world won't bat an eye if a million or so people starve to death as a secondary effect of this, provided those people are far enough away. There have been more than a few examples of mass starvation that have generated a few short news items and little else. Economic hardship is endemic to much of the world - there's a far higher tolerance there than most Westerners can imagine.
Russia's gain in this is getting Ukraine to renounce its intention to join NATO. A formalized neutrality arrangement is a win - not the win Putin wanted, but a win nonetheless. It halts NATO's expansion, settles Russia's security perimeter, and forces both Ukraine and NATO to accept a Russian objective. Sure, Zelensky's still in power (for now - elections are funny things), and Kyiv is not aligned with Moscow, but it's not hosting American military bases either.
I hope you are right. Recent (mis)statements by the West have the potential to harden Put Put into not backing down (at least ammo to justify it). I do remember in the doc they had on Putin, they noted some he talked about when he was young when he was hunting rats in his apartment building. He noted how the ferocity of the rat radically changed when it was put in a corner.
And now, this:
Russia's Wagner Group "has deployed to eastern Ukraine" per Britain's military intelligence, says @MickSmeathUK. "They are expected to deploy more than 1,000 mercenaries, including senior leaders of the organisation, to undertake combat operations
...and... wait for it....
The Wagner Group itself was first active in 2014,[1] along with Utkin, in the Luhansk region of Ukraine.[43] The company's name comes from Utkin's own call sign "Wagner" after the German composer Richard Wagner, which he is said to have chosen due to his passion for the Third Reich (Wagner being Adolf Hitler's favorite composer).[47][48] As such, some believe him to be a neo-Nazi,[49][50] with The Economist reporting Utkin has several Nazi tattoos.[48]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group
Well, at least they might be able to find the Nazi's easier!
BTW - in case no one got the Orc's reference above, it is what some Ukrainians are apparently calling the Russians.
so much irony in that post....
in military circles, Wagner is generally thought of as basically an uber-evil version of Blackwater, minus any iota of humanism, regard for human life or laws or war, or decency at all, an organization which has no issue mowing down a crowd of children if they're paid enough. So, basically Russian armed forces but getting paid better.
In reply to irish44j (Forum Supporter) :
So, the modern iteration of the French Foreign Legion, circa 1946-62?
Shocking, just shocking I tell you:
Russia no longer demanding Ukraine be ‘denazified’ in ceasefire talks
The FT has written an article that states that Russia is no longer demanding that Ukraine be ‘denazified’ in ceasefire talks and will allow Kyiv to join the EU if it abandons Nato aspirations.
The EU concession is interesting if true.
02Pilot said:I'm going to go on record as saying that the Western world won't bat an eye if a million or so people starve to death as a secondary effect of this, provided those people are far enough away. There have been more than a few examples of mass starvation that have generated a few short news items and little else. Economic hardship is endemic to much of the world - there's a far higher tolerance there than most Westerners can imagine.
Russia's gain in this is getting Ukraine to renounce its intention to join NATO. A formalized neutrality arrangement is a win - not the win Putin wanted, but a win nonetheless. It halts NATO's expansion, settles Russia's security perimeter, and forces both Ukraine and NATO to accept a Russian objective. Sure, Zelensky's still in power (for now - elections are funny things), and Kyiv is not aligned with Moscow, but it's not hosting American military bases either.
02, I hear what you're saying about Western perspective bias, but please allow me to clarify my statement. The UN is fundamentally a Collectivist organization. I think that if this drags on much longer, we're looking at WAY more than "a million" dead from starvation. There might be enough design margin so that China hasn't sucked up all the excess inventory, but I suspect Africa and the marginal agriculture areas are staring at disaster if the available fertilizer inventory goes to less than 25% of what they need. Those African countries have been courted by China pretty hard and if they find out China is unwilling to make a significant effort to help them avoid real famine, then their only real recourse is the UN and telling the PRC to Eff Off. I think the PRC is staring at being smeared by their support for Russia and any unwillingness to help their desired client states in Africa. That (in combination with any opportunities for non-Russian raw material suppliers to exploit massive profits) has the potential to severely undercut the reputation of the UN and I think there's going to be a difficult-to-estimate obligation for the UN to act collectively if they're staring at massive famine---that's pretty much their core mission so if they can't do anything to help in this situation then they aren't good for much (but then, we already knew that).
Again, my $.02 and prolly not worth $.00...
02Pilot said:In reply to irish44j (Forum Supporter) :
So, the modern iteration of the French Foreign Legion, circa 1946-62?
Nailed it. A much more concise and accurate example then my black water comparison.
I'm looking forward to the Ukrainians wiping out all these Wagner guys...
In regards to the wealth that the kleptocratic oligarchs in Russia have stashed in offshore accounts that could be seized and given to Ukraine for rebuilding:
US lawmakers have a new idea for what to do with seized Russian assets (yahoo.com)
"An oft-cited 2017 paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research estimated Russian oligarch wealth and came to the startling conclusion that rich Russians held around $800 billion in assets outside of Russia, as of 2015.
Or to put it more starkly: “There is as much financial wealth held by rich Russians abroad — in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Cyprus, and similar offshore centers — than held by the entire Russian population in Russia itself,” Filip Novokmet, Thomas Piketty, and Gabriel Zucman wrote."
Russia To Ease Attacks On Kyiv Amid Talks Of Peace
“A decision was made to radically, at times, reduce military activity in the Kiev and Chernigov direction," Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said, emphasizing a desire to build “mutual trust” with Ukraine following its five-week invasion of its neighbor.
https://www.ibtimes.com/russia-ease-attacks-kyiv-amid-talks-peace-3454605
[Russian Bull Sh%t Translator Activated]
We are getting our ass handed to use outside of Kyiv and will now be going into a defensive position. We of course want to make it look like it is because of peace talks, while we continue to murder people in other areas of the country, because it would be very inconvenient for the Ukrainians to counter attack while we do that.
(Of note, the counter attacks around Kyiv apparently involve a lot of foreign fighters, including Americans.)
Since Russia invaded Ukraine does that mean the Lisbon protocol has been nullified?
Assuming Russia gets kicked out of Ukraine, what would happen if we quickly gave Ukraine some nukes?
I know their silos were decommissioned around 1992 and they're designed for Russian missiles so maybe we should be quietly training the Ukrainian military now and deliver some tactical nukes the day Russia leaves (I think we've got ~200 of them).
I appreciate the escalation concern but it would go a long way in making an agreement to not join NATO a lesser issue for them.
I greatly admire Ukraine's bravery / competence and think they've paid the free world a tremendous service...wouldn't it be appropriate to make a nice big "welcome to the club" gesture and a nice big berk you Putin gesture?
Yes, I realize I'll get ripped for suggesting this and that's OK.
Are the Russians easing their attacks because they are running low on munitions?
"Ivan, we run low on missiles!"
"Boris, then do not shoot so many."
RX Reven' said:Assuming Russia gets kicked out of Ukraine, what would happen if we quickly gave Ukraine some nukes?
AIUI that would be a massive violation of the nonproliferation treaty.
Also a terrible idea for a bunch of other reasons and I really doubt you'd get anyone on either side to agree to it.
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