In reply to RX Reven' :
That treaty wasn't worth the paper it was signed on. If it were, we would have stepped in and created a no fly zone on day one.
In reply to RX Reven' :
That treaty wasn't worth the paper it was signed on. If it were, we would have stepped in and created a no fly zone on day one.
As a note, much of the information we are getting and is presented here is from Ukrainian sources. As such there is certainly a bit of a slant to it, including exaggeration at times I am sure. As a slight counter point to that, this just came out:
A video posted online exhibited allegedly Ukrainian soldiers shooting Russian prisoners in their legs in the Kharkiv region, prompting immediate investigations from both camps.
Also of interest:
The video was uploaded on Telegram Saturday, according to CNN, showed a successful assault by Ukrainian troops of the Azov Battalion, in which they took several Russian prisoners in a rapid assault on Olkhovka, also known as Vilkhivka.
In the spirit of the upcoming peach talks Russia is dropping numerous "exploding peace missiles" on cities around Ukraine tonight.
Question from my cynical self to the smarter forum members (that's all y'all.)
I don't understand why there is any talk of "negotiations" with Putin & co. It's not possible to negotiate a contract with a sociopath or pathological liar (choose one). Are the Ukrainians really so naive as to think that any sort of agreement/treaty that is reached with Russia is worth the paper it's printed on, and the effort that it took to come to an unenforceable agreement?
In reply to FJ40Jim :
How true, and any agreement will probably require the dropping of all sanctions against Put Put and his government. I read on Yahoo.com the other day that Great Britain (Edit: Someone in the United Kingdom) was offering to resume normal relations with Mother Russia as soon as they pulled out of Ukraine, but I can't find it anymore.
FJ40Jim said:Question from my cynical self to the smarter forum members (that's all y'all.)
I don't understand why there is any talk of "negotiations" with Putin & co. It's not possible to negotiate a contract with a sociopath or pathological liar (choose one). Are the Ukrainians really so naive as to think that any sort of agreement/treaty that is reached with Russia is worth the paper it's printed on, and the effort that it took to come to an unenforceable agreement?
What alternative do the Ukrainians have? They are putting up a good fight, but eventually the weight of Russian manpower and weapons will wear them down, killing countless thousands of their citizens in the process.
Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) said:FJ40Jim said:Question from my cynical self to the smarter forum members (that's all y'all.)
I don't understand why there is any talk of "negotiations" with Putin & co. It's not possible to negotiate a contract with a sociopath or pathological liar (choose one). Are the Ukrainians really so naive as to think that any sort of agreement/treaty that is reached with Russia is worth the paper it's printed on, and the effort that it took to come to an unenforceable agreement?
What alternative do the Ukrainians have? They are putting up a good fight, but eventually the weight of Russian manpower and weapons will wear them down, killing countless thousands of their citizens in the process.
if the Ukrainians can keep it up to the point where Vlad's buddies get tired of their wealth being taken and no chance of recovering it, they'll take care of Vlad for us. That's the Ukrainian alternative.
Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) said:FJ40Jim said:Question from my cynical self to the smarter forum members (that's all y'all.)
I don't understand why there is any talk of "negotiations" with Putin & co. It's not possible to negotiate a contract with a sociopath or pathological liar (choose one). Are the Ukrainians really so naive as to think that any sort of agreement/treaty that is reached with Russia is worth the paper it's printed on, and the effort that it took to come to an unenforceable agreement?
What alternative do the Ukrainians have? They are putting up a good fight, but eventually the weight of Russian manpower and weapons will wear them down, killing countless thousands of their citizens in the process.
I don't know. Russia's economy is under a lot of pressure as it is. There's signs that an agreement isn't that far away. If Ukraine gives up Donbass and says that they won't join NATO, Russia can still claim victory in the deal. Remember that Donbass has been a thorn in their side for some time, and I'm sure that some would like to wash their hands of that troublesome region. Meanwhile Ukraine can crow about how they fought off the Mighty Russian Bear and start harvesting reconstruction funds from Western Europe.
FJ40Jim said:Question from my cynical self to the smarter forum members (that's all y'all.)
I don't understand why there is any talk of "negotiations" with Putin & co. It's not possible to negotiate a contract with a sociopath or pathological liar (choose one). Are the Ukrainians really so naive as to think that any sort of agreement/treaty that is reached with Russia is worth the paper it's printed on, and the effort that it took to come to an unenforceable agreement?
I reject fully the characterization of Putin as irrational. The actions taken in Ukraine were rational in the context of his assessment of Russia's and his own priorities. The fact that he miscalculated, in no small part due to poor intelligence (I posted an article on the polling done in Ukraine by Russia in the months leading up to the invasion), does not make him crazy.
The Ukrainians know full well what they are dealing with, and will not agree to terms that leave them without adequate defensive capabilities. One could argue that they will be more secure after this ordeal than they were before it, having secured access to modern weapons and substantial funding that would not have been available prior to the invasion. A neutral, EU-affiliated, well-armed Ukraine is in far better shape than an isolated, economically unstable, politically vulnerable Ukraine.
I am still going to be surprised if Ukraine gives up all of the Donbas region. Economical there are a number of important cities for Ukraine and the parts of the Donbas that hadn't been under "separatist" control seemed to me to have been moving closer to Ukraine then to Russia.
Maybe the pre-invasion line or an agreement of more autonomy but surely not complete separation
02Pilot said:FJ40Jim said:
I reject fully the characterization of Putin as irrational. The actions taken in Ukraine were rational in the context of his assessment of Russia's and his own priorities. The fact that he miscalculated, in no small part due to poor intelligence (I posted an article on the polling done in Ukraine by Russia in the months leading up to the invasion), does not make him crazy.
The Ukrainians know full well what they are dealing with, and will not agree to terms that leave them without adequate defensive capabilities. One could argue that they will be more secure after this ordeal than they were before it, having secured access to modern weapons and substantial funding that would not have been available prior to the invasion. A neutral, EU-affiliated, well-armed Ukraine is in far better shape than an isolated, economically unstable, politically vulnerable Ukraine.
Agree. Putin (and his advisors) clearly miscalculated, but this wasn't some kind of irrational knee-jerk invasion. Putin and his people have been building up to this for a couple decades. First you had the invasions of Moldova (Transnistria) and Georgia (Abkhazia/S Ossesia) which were miniature versions of the current invasion - almost test cases. Then the invasion of Crimea was Part 2, giving Russia a substantial logistical and strategic southern base - else none of the current inroads into SE Ukraine (including Berdyansk and Mariupol) would have been possible. The use of "little green men" to foment unrest and rebellion in the Donbas was Part 3, sapping Ukrainian military resources, giving Russia a foothold throughout the eastern areas, and creating a pretext for invasion (e.g. perported "genocide" against the ethnic Russian populace in those areas by Ukraine and the "Nazi" Azov forces).
One could also argue that prior to the popular uprising in Ukraine in 2014 Putin and Russia expected to just take over Ukraine by proxy/puppet leaders (see: Belarus). The Maiden Revolution destroyed that possibility by ushering out the pro-Russian leadership, so Russia knew it would have to resort to force.
But yeah, this was long in the works, but the final act here was an epic miscalculation - both on Ukraine's will to fight, the west's will to support the fight with hardware, and the utter incompetence of Russia's obsolete ground forces and conscript army. And also the weather. We can all thank Xi for accidentally making Putin push back his invasion until after the Olympics, just long enough to let the ground thaw and turn the overwhelmingly-farmland Ukraine into a giant mud pit, forcing Russia's massive vehicular advantage onto highways and roads where they have been sitting ducks.
Putin's not crazy or suicidal - he simply made bad calculations based on preconcieved ideas, bad intelligence, bad advisors, and bad luck - among other things. Not to call Putin anything "great," but it's worth noting that many of the acclaimed wartime leaders in history had their shares of massive military blunders - George Washington, Churchill, Halsey, McArthur,....and i dare say Hitler's Third Reich (thanks to, ironically, over-reaching in the disastrous invasion of....Russia). . Hell, a bunch of dudes with Hiluxes and AKs and RPGs managed to basically kick the TWO largest superpowers (TWO most power militaries in history) out of Afghanistan, one after the other (to say nothing of the British Empire...).
02Pilot said:FJ40Jim said:Question from my cynical self to the smarter forum members (that's all y'all.)
I don't understand why there is any talk of "negotiations" with Putin & co. It's not possible to negotiate a contract with a sociopath or pathological liar (choose one). Are the Ukrainians really so naive as to think that any sort of agreement/treaty that is reached with Russia is worth the paper it's printed on, and the effort that it took to come to an unenforceable agreement?
I reject fully the characterization of Putin as irrational.
Just to be clear, I don't think Putin is at all crazy. He is a sociopath & a liar. A sociopath is a person who has no empathy for others. The others in this case are the people of ukraine, russian conscripts, the russian populace who are suffering because of sanctions.... Interestingly, sociopaths are able to think faster & more clearly than normals, because they aren't slowed by thoughts of "Will others think this is OK?"
In reply to FJ40Jim :
I'm not a mental professional nor do I feel I have any expertise, but your assessment is correct. Most people driven to top tier politics are sociopaths to an extent. Putins downfall is that his trusted leadership is a group of yes men and they all rubber stamped the idea that Russia would breeze through Ukraine with no push back. The issue is he cemented Ukraines resolve in 2014 by taking Crimea.
If this continues longer I am less certain that Russia grinds Ukraine down but rather the Chinese and Ukranians meet in the middle when Russia starts losing mass amounts of land as a western supplied independent Ukrainian army starts heading east.
FJ40Jim said:02Pilot said:FJ40Jim said:Question from my cynical self to the smarter forum members (that's all y'all.)
I don't understand why there is any talk of "negotiations" with Putin & co. It's not possible to negotiate a contract with a sociopath or pathological liar (choose one). Are the Ukrainians really so naive as to think that any sort of agreement/treaty that is reached with Russia is worth the paper it's printed on, and the effort that it took to come to an unenforceable agreement?
I reject fully the characterization of Putin as irrational.
Just to be clear, I don't think Putin is at all crazy. He is a sociopath & a liar. A sociopath is a person who has no empathy for others. The others in this case are the people of ukraine, russian conscripts, the russian populace who are suffering because of sanctions.... Interestingly, sociopaths are able to think faster & more clearly than normals, because they aren't slowed by thoughts of "Will others think this is OK?"
If a sociopath and/or pathological liar is in fact rational, then why is it "not possible to negotiate a contract" with one?
irish44j (Forum Supporter) said:First you had the invasions of Moldova (Transnistria) and Georgia (Abkhazia/S Ossesia) which were miniature versions of the current invasion
My understanding is that Transnistria was not a Russian invasion but rather came from the breakup of the USSR. The Moldovan people at the end of the Soviet Union had a large resurgence of pro-Romanian nationalism and Transnistria was largely populated by people of non Romanian descent. So a separatist movement grew from there and evuantally a war was fought between Moldovan troops and the Transnistrians (admittedly with backing from the Russians). Then an agreement was made to keep Russian troops there as peacekeeping. Admittedly there is some overlap with the separatist of Donbass and Russia declaring a "peacekeeping mission" in Ukraine but IMO I don't think Transnistria really could be called a Russian invasion.
QuasiMofo (John Brown) said:In reply to FJ40Jim :
I'm not a mental professional nor do I feel I have any expertise, but your assessment is correct. Most people driven to top tier politics are sociopaths to an extent. Putins downfall is that his trusted leadership is a group of yes men and they all rubber stamped the idea that Russia would breeze through Ukraine with no push back. The issue is he cemented Ukraines resolve in 2014 by taking Crimea.
If this continues longer I am less certain that Russia grinds Ukraine down but rather the Chinese and Ukranians meet in the middle when Russia starts losing mass amounts of land as a western supplied independent Ukrainian army starts heading east.
Hmm... I don't think Ukraine would go so far as to counter-attack into Russia, justified or not. To do so could very well make Putin push the nuclear button as a "defensive" response.
Just leaving this here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44965/u-s-f-15-pilot-on-what-it-is-like-fighting-against-ukraines-fighter-pilots
Despite what the media reported in the run-up to the invasion, i think the Ukrainian defense ministry saw this coming, and have been preparing accordingly since 2014. Putin most certainly miscalculated the military response, even if he anticipated the volume and severity of western sanctions (which i don't think he did either).
06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:Just leaving this here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44965/u-s-f-15-pilot-on-what-it-is-like-fighting-against-ukraines-fighter-pilots
Despite what the media reported in the run-up to the invasion, i think the Ukrainian defense ministry saw this coming, and have been preparing accordingly since 2014. Putin most certainly miscalculated the military response, even if he anticipated the volume and severity of western sanctions (which i don't think he did either).
Not that it's incorrect, But it still amuses me that a vast number of Americans consider The Drive as their source of foreign policy information.
Don't get me wrong I do read it myself, But it's still amuses me.
In reply to irish44j (Forum Supporter) :
Who'd a thunk? 
A lot of the "good" stuff is behind a paywall these days. I don't treat the site as gospel, but they do have some suprisingly good articles from time to time.
irish44j (Forum Supporter) said:Not that it's incorrect, But it still amuses me that a vast number of Americans consider The Drive as their source of foreign policy information.
the whut?
In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :
To this point, any talk about Ukraine "winning" is just propaganda from that side. Ukraine isn't "winning", and will never "win". Their country was invaded, their buildings bombed and citizens killed and wounded. The longer the war drags on, the more Ukraine loses. Yes, Russia is losing troops and tanks, but Moscow isn't under attack. The sanctions are likely hurting Russia, but then again, they're also hurting the rest of the entire world. Commodity prices on everything are up, anywhere from 10% to 50%. A few dozen oligarchs lost their yachts; meanwhile millions have been displaced and millions more are at risk of starving.
Prior to the invasion it was said that maintaining the status quo of Ukraine not joining NATO was probably all that would have prevented all of this. And now it looks like that might be what ends the war.
In reply to stroker :
It's a "car guy" site that has a section devoted to military news and developments called The War Zone, from their Bing bio: The Drive is the one-stop shop for all things automotive. See the latest in car tech, global auto news and in-depth vehicle reviews. I don't know about how vast this number of Americans is, but they do seem to have interesting articles on miliary topics in The War Zone section of the site that don't appear to be complete BS.
In reply to volvoclearinghouse :
You're probably right. And when all is said and done, a whole lot of people will have died for nothing. Typical of wars...
Humans sure do have a problem with the "learning from the past" concept...
"This time it'll be different!"
No. No it won't.
06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:In reply to irish44j (Forum Supporter) :
Who'd a thunk?
https://lifehacker.com/how-to-get-past-a-paywall-to-read-an-article-for-free-1847800292
Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:QuasiMofo (John Brown) said:Words and things
Hmm... I don't think Ukraine would go so far as to counter-attack into Russia, justified or not. To do so could very well make Putin push the nuclear button as a "defensive" response.
I don't really believe that either, but there is a point that Putin may be martyred and if a power struggle occurs all bets are off. Hence the China coming from the other side statement. If this continues to drag on and weaken the morale and might of the Russian military machine it could create an opportunity for su h absurdity.
volvoclearinghouse said:In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :
Prior to the invasion it was said that maintaining the status quo of Ukraine not joining NATO was probably all that would have prevented all of this. And now it looks like that might be what ends the war.
Probably not, Ukraine was another one of those nearby countries that was too democratic for Putin's liking, even if they had stayed out of NATO he was going to berkeley with their elections until they elected someone more autocratic and Putin-friendly at the very least, and he very likely would've invaded them eventually because they're also a part of the former USSR he wanted to annex. The issue of joining NATO probably just hastened the inevitable.
Some interesting news I just ran across, apparently when the Russians invaded Chernobyl, a military convoy drove through the red forest, and it seems the Russian soldiers did not know about the Chernobyl disaster!
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