VolvoHeretic said:
So, from those that might know, Is Russia's poor performance in Ukraine because they are holding back worried about China, the US or others or are they really stretched to the breaking point and this is the best that they can do?
Russia's poor performance is seemingly due primarily to incompetence, whether that be in planning, logistics, training, equipment maintenance, intelligence, communications, leadership, and morale (conscripts). Likely all of those things in high doses. Also the assumption that an armor-heavy force would just walk in to a country loaded with AT munitions. The western world decided decades ago that armor is only useful for a few environments (primarily, deserts where AT teams can't hide), and ONLY when the user has air superiority.
I'm not sure what they could be holding back , short of nukes/chem/bio stuff, which would really cross a red line with the west, and likely with China/India as well. Seems like they're throwing the kitchen sink at Ukraine already and not accomplishing much other than knocking down a lot of infrastructure.
Can Russia totally level every city in Ukraine eventually? I suppose so, assuming they have enough long-range munitions to do so. I don't believe for a second that Russia can occupy even a "significant" portion of Ukraine, ever. I mean, they can hardly occupy the areas they already more or less occupied before the invasion (e.g. part of the Donbas). I'm not sure 'at the breaking point' is on-target, but Russia is taking massive losses and using massive amounts of munitions, missiles, etc.....and so far has actually accomplished very little in terms of territorial gains and has been totally rebuffed from Kiev. Russia is a big country, but not a particularly rich one. It can't just go on forever exhausting supply while its war machine is kneecapped by sanctions, corruption, and general ineptness. I have to assume there is a substantial part of Russia's military that absolutely can't be used in Ukraine, especially with Putin's paranoia about being invaded by NATO and with not-all-that-friendly other countries along its borders. And the Ukrainians don't appear inclined to roll over any time soon - especially with the entire (rich) West pumping modern weapons into their fighting force and an obvious home-field advantage in terms of terrain, tactics, and geography.
I saw videos the other day of a huge convoy of Russian tanks heading for the Ukraine border - all of them in the distinctive winter camo used in Russia's northern army. So it would seem the Russian army is now having to call in reinforcements from all the way across the country, if that says anything. Japan also publicly reported Russian landing ships coming from the Pacific purportedly bringing reinforcements from Russia's Far East. Not something you're doing unless you're running out of "local" stuff to throw at Ukraine. Then you have the Wagner guys there as well. You don't call in a mercenary force if your Army is "doing fine."
Just my take on things. That and 75 cents will get you a can of Coke.