That is all - anyone care to opine?
That is all - anyone care to opine?
Meh. Couldn't care less. That kid will sell off his stake for cheap (comparatively speaking) and when it folds he will still be fabulously wealthy because he was able to cash in on the narcissism of the human race.
Company is wildly overvalued, stock market has some potential to take a hit in general...
....of course people (investors) are emotional idiots...
Shorting it is a great idea, if you know exactly when to do it. On hard numbers the site is overvalued by a factor of over 20x. It's the .com bubble 2: electric boogaloo!
Someone read the same article I did earlier. 
You all can laugh at me when you are burning logs of money from your three way FB split but... probably not.
My prediction: Up really quick for a few days then a long slide to penny stocks by 2016.
I think it's gonna crash pretty hard when the "oh E36 M3" moment hits, probably a year or two from now. That's when you want to short.
Until ther is an alternative that users are fleeing to investors will have faith, and that faith will keep value up. There will be an alternative though, and people will leave Facebook and then things will fall in a hole. This isn't a long term play for anyone, they all know it will go away, but the question is whether they can make money off of it before it does. I'm not smart enough or agile enough to play this kind of game, but it's fun to watch.
Giant Purple Snorklewacker wrote: ...My prediction: Up really quick for a few days then a long slide to penny stocks by 2016.
Stock has gone virtually nowhere since the IPO (up 7%). Volume is insane though.
It's looking like it's floundering already. Seems VERY unlikely to double it's value as (potentially) predicted.
mazdeuce wrote: Until ther is an alternative that users are fleeing to investors will have faith, and that faith will keep value up. There will be an alternative though, and people will leave Facebook and then things will fall in a hole. This isn't a long term play for anyone, they all know it will go away, but the question is whether they can make money off of it before it does. I'm not smart enough or agile enough to play this kind of game, but it's fun to watch.
Remember MySpace, anyone? I don't want to invest in anything that's this volatile, shorting it or not. It's just too unstable; it will be 'uncool' and then will crash/burn. Zuckerberg will come out with a couple billions socked away so he can keep on killing his own steaks.
Based strictly on fundamentals, yeah, short the crap out of it. BUT... with the FBI, CIA, NSA, HSA, and every other law enforcement agency in the country (world?) using it for data mining and firmly behind it, like teh googles, there is a good chance it will stick around and not crash and burn. It is interesting, though, that Government Motors decided that blowing money on side panel advertisements on FB was a waste of taxpayers' money, even if you just have to tell the Fed to e-print you up some more when you run short.
So, I'm not in this show at all. To many different ways it could go. If I had to SWAG it, though, I'd say, like teh googles, flat to a bit down for a few weeks, then up as the big boyz pile on for the inside deal. If it was dependent on actual real financials, crash and burn by the end of the year.
Also, you investor types, look real close and you'll find that Zuckerberg has full control of all the stock at like 55% voting shares. His "super special rights" stock class has like 10x the "votes" as the crap he is selling you, and he bought the voting rights of the other insiders' shares for a dollar. That means that if every single share holder in the world wanted FB to do something and Zuckerberg wanted to spend the whole FB empire on hookers and blow, guess what happens?
How can anyone take a company that has a market valuation and P/E ratio like that is insane.
Effectively to meet there current valuation they would need to take in 0.10 cents on every single dollar spent GLOBALLY on advertizing about 7 years from now to meet their current valuation.
That's crazy talk.
Dr. Hess wrote: Based strictly on fundamentals, yeah, short the crap out of it. BUT... with the FBI, CIA, NSA, HSA, and every other law enforcement agency in the country (world?) using it for data mining and firmly behind it, like teh googles, there is a good chance it will stick around and not crash and burn.
Hey the 3-letter agencies can't make people use it.
I think Zuckerberg's controlling share is what's going to keep this stock from tanking in a matter of days, but I don't see it going more than 3 years before the crash hits.
GameboyRMH wrote:Dr. Hess wrote: Based strictly on fundamentals, yeah, short the crap out of it. BUT... with the FBI, CIA, NSA, HSA, and every other law enforcement agency in the country (world?) using it for data mining and firmly behind it, like teh googles, there is a good chance it will stick around and not crash and burn.Hey the 3-letter agencies can't *make* people use it. I think Zuckerberg's controlling share is what's going to keep this stock from tanking in a matter of days, but I don't see it going more than 3 years before the crash hits.
People will use it. What will change is that when advertisers do the math on the ROI they will stop paying. GM walked away just last week stating exactly that - not worth it.
Hey looks like the "it will fall directly on its ass" people may be right:
http://news.slashdot.org/story/12/05/18/187246/facebook-ipo-stumbles-out-of-the-gate
Stock price was expected to double, has gone nowhere. Time to short?
My 12 year old daughter hasn't asked about joining Facebook in a long time. I think the kids are done with it. They've moved on to Pinterest and Instagram. And all of us old people have now figured out what our old girlfriends look like now. And frankly, I don't really care what they have for breakfast or if their kid made a pretty art project.
Long term prospects are not good.
In reply to GameboyRMH:
There is a school of thought - admittedly mostly amongst people who have been doing IPOs for a very long time, of which there aren't that many left - which suggests that large stock price gains on the day of the IPO or shortly thereafter would suggest that the stock was priced too low and that the IPO's underwriter left money for the company on the table or in other people's coffers.
From that point of view I am not surprised that the price seems to be roughly hovering around the original price. Keep in mind that they upped the IPO price a couple of times.
Nevertheless I'm getting this sinking feeling that it's the web bubble all over again.
Otto Maddox wrote: My 12 year old daughter hasn't asked about joining Facebook in a long time. I think the kids are done with it. They've moved on to Pinterest and Instagram. And all of us old people have now figured out what our old girlfriends look like now. And frankly, I don't really care what they have for breakfast or if their kid made a pretty art project. Long term prospects are not good.
Agreed, people have moved on to the next thing already.
The market seems to agree with you a bit:
Open: 42
Close: 38.2
1 year target: 40
Ouch.
What's that sound a balloon makes when you let the air out... bbbbffffffffsssssssss.......
Otto Maddox wrote: My 12 year old daughter hasn't asked about joining Facebook in a long time. I think the kids are done with it. They've moved on to Pinterest and Instagram. And all of us old people have now figured out what our old girlfriends look like now. And frankly, I don't really care what they have for breakfast or if their kid made a pretty art project. Long term prospects are not good.
Yeah, but seeing as how FB bought Instagram last month for 1B, it seems they're intent on staying relevant.......
No, they're trying to get hipsters to come back from Tumblr and Reddit.
I'm ostensibly a wall-street type. What was highly amusing today was watching all the messages from our clearing firm as NASDAQ struggled to handle the IPO. It was rather rough, took them a while to sort everything out.
Tomorrow, it'll be just another stock.
wearymicrobe wrote: How can anyone take a company that has a market valuation and P/E ratio like that is insane. Effectively to meet there current valuation they would need to take in 0.10 cents on every single dollar spent GLOBALLY on advertizing about 7 years from now to meet their current valuation. That's crazy talk.
People were counting on Cabbage Patch Dolls, then Beanie Babies, then ever higher real estate values, what happened to each of them? Yup. I won't mention the dot com bust, that's just too easy. Zuckerberg better put some cash in a safe place quick or he's gonna wind up having to buy bologna like everyone else.
The problem is that facebook just isn't that fun anymore. It's well understood that every move is potentially under scrutiny by employers present and future. What was once a place to let loose is now a place to be on your best behavior.
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